Official Club Stuff Carlton Academy - Next Gen & Father/Son/Daughter Discussion II

[marcmurphy3]

Who knows what the AFL will do in terms of allowable deficit for 2027 (if Tassie come in)?
Do they take into account all the Tassie picks and therefore allow a much smaller deficit?

That'd be pretty unfair. Clubs are hurt enough by Tassie entry.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Does anyone know how exactly the deficits are expected to work? I gather that they contribute a points value equivalent with the last natural pick of the round, so pick 18 for R1. How does this change the clubs pick the next year? If they finish last, do they lose pick 1? or does the points value get shaved off and they move back? How does if work if they traded a future pick? either in or out.


Also, I am incredibly excited about Cody as a player, but surely effectively paying 3 good first round picks for an 18 year old is a little steep...

Agree - but I think we all get a bit addicted to the excitement of drafting 3-4 new players each and they are all going to be champions !

Some clubs hardly take a a pick at the draft depending where their list is at. Richmond are doing a ground up rebuild so are taking 4-6 each year.

We aren't strictly in a rebuild, more a list profile re-shaping that I think Soapy said that GW views as a two year strategy.

Therefore if look holistically over the two years of the 2025 and 2026 draft and the results is Harry Dean, Jack Ison and Cody Walker plus a couple of lesser names like Talor Byrne then our strategy is sound and not unduly undermined by the new F/S rules.

I would expect we then attack free-agency in 2027.

 

[Stamos]

That'd be pretty unfair. Clubs are hurt enough by Tassie entry.

Yeah, but the AFL tend not to bother thinking about unintended consequences.
At least beforehand.

 

[Dramoth]

Yeah, but the AFL tend not to bother with thinking.
At least beforehand.

There Stam, I fixed it for you

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Agree - but I think we all get a bit addicted to the excitement of drafting 3-4 new players each and they are all going to be champions !

Some clubs hardly take a a pick at the draft depending where their list is at. Richmond are doing a ground up rebuild so are taking 4-6 each year.

We aren't strictly in a rebuild, more a list profile re-shaping that I think Soapy said that GW views as a two year strategy.

Therefore if look holistically over the two years of the 2025 and 2026 draft and the results is Harry Dean, Jack Ison and Cody Walker plus a couple of lesser names like Talor Byrne then our strategy is sound and not unduly undermined by the new F/S rules.

I would expect we then attack free-agency in 2027.

What our plans are, and what the reality of the situation turns out to be are too separate things. I would think that Harry Dean, Jack Ison and Cody Walker (plus a couple of lesser names) in two years is two top tier players short of where in needs to be (yes, I'm already factoring in last year's pick 3). Everyone is also just assuming that we'll be on the up and that our first two picks won't be high enough on their own to smoothly get the Job done, and they are alright with it.

I wouldn't be too smug about having enough star power to cover up the thin spots on our list. Also, who knows who else we might need to provide high picks for in the not too distant future.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

What our plans are, and what the reality of the situation turns out to be are too separate things. I would think that Harry Dean, Jack Ison and Cody Walker (plus a couple of lesser names) in two years is two top tier players short of where in needs to be (yes, I'm already factoring in last year's pick 3). Everyone is also just assuming that we'll be on the up and that our first two picks won't be high enough on their own to smoothly get the Job done, and they are alright with it.

I wouldn't be too smug about having enough star power to cover up the thin spots on our list. Also, who knows who else we might need to provide high picks for in the not too distant future.

Ok - fair comment but given the rule changes for the F/S, both this year and the proposed change next year what are your thoughts or strategy ?

One alternative :

-Too late now but keep Pick 12 and 14 instead of Jagga at 3 ? - agree you could argue this one

- Not match Harry Dean and take picks 9 and 11 - morally I feel we were obliged to match but I guess we could have passed and taken two players.

- Cody Walker 2026 - again feel we are obliged to match but I we could again choose not to match and take players with all the 2026 picks we have (2 firsts, 2 second, 2 thirds ??).

By my count that's potentially six first round players instead of three.

 

[katmanblue]

Ok - fair comment but given the rule changes for the F/S, both this year and the proposed change next year what are your thoughts or strategy ?

One alternative :

-Too late now but keep Pick 12 and 14 instead of Jagga at 3 ? - agree you could argue this one

- Not match Harry Dean and take picks 9 and 11 - morally I feel we were obliged to match but I guess we could have passed and taken two players.

- Cody Walker 2026 - again feel we are obliged to match but I we could again choose not to match and take players with all the 2026 picks we have (2 firsts, 2 second, 2 thirds ??).

By my count that's potentially six first round players instead of three.

Add a 2nd rounder and Owies for pick 3 last year.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Ok - fair comment but given the rule changes for the F/S, both this year and the proposed change next year what are your thoughts or strategy ?

One alternative :

-Too late now but keep Pick 12 and 14 instead of Jagga at 3 ? - agree you could argue this one

- Not match Harry Dean and take picks 9 and 11 - morally I feel we were obliged to match but I guess we could have passed and taken two players.

- Cody Walker 2026 - again feel we are obliged to match but I we could again choose not to match and take players with all the 2026 picks we have (2 firsts, 2 second, 2 thirds ??).

By my count that's potentially six first round players instead of three.

Its not really 3 players for 6 though. Not sure about 2026 but those mid-late 1st rounders we've had the last few years have a pretty mixed hit rate. We get excited about the names but chances are high we miss some of those picks. Much higher then us missing in the top 3.

On the flipside Walker, Jagga and Dean all really need to become stars for what we've invested. Decent role player is a fail.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Its not really 3 players for 6 though. Not sure about 2026 but those mid-late 1st rounders we've had the last few years have a pretty mixed hit rate. We get excited about the names but chances are high we miss some of those picks. Much higher then us missing in the top 3.

On the flipside Walker, Jagga and Dean all really need to become stars for what we've invested. Decent role player is a fail.

Worth remembering that the picks we traded for Jagga were 15 and 17 after bids.

If you look at that trade historically

2015 = Callum Mills for Daniel Rioli and Tom Doedee

2016 = Hugh Mcluggage for Jordan Galluci and Jarrod Berry

2017 = Paddy Dow for Zac Bailey and Jack Higgins

2018 = Izak Rankine for Jordan Clark and Sam Stuart

Etc.

If you think the player at 3 is the McLuggage/Rankine tier, it's worth it.

 

[Stamos]

Add a 2nd rounder and Owies for pick 3 last year.

No, the 2nd rounder was given up in order to get 14.
We were doing that deal regardless, well before we knew we were going to be able to do the deal for 3.
And we didn't have a list spot for Owies.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Worth remembering that the picks we traded for Jagga were 15 and 17 after bids.

If you look at that trade historically

2015 = Callum Mills for Daniel Rioli and Tom Doedee

2016 = Hugh Mcluggage for Jordan Galluci and Jarrod Berry

2017 = Paddy Dow for Zac Bailey and Jack Higgins

2018 = Izak Rankine for Jordan Clark and Sam Stuart

Etc.

If you think the player at 3 is the McLuggage/Rankine tier, it's worth it.

Yep. Id take the pick 3 in all of those scenarios except 2017

 

[Blue and Silver]

Yep. Id take the pick 3 in all of those scenarios except 2017

We laugh so we don't cry. Although the other options haven't been superstars

LDU, Cerra, Stephenson, Hunter Clark, Nick Coffield. So sometimes a miss isn't as big as it feels

 

[marcmurphy3]

We laugh so we don't cry. Although the other options haven't been superstars

LDU, Cerra, Stephenson, Hunter Clark, Nick Coffield. So sometimes a miss isn't as big as it feels

LDU vs Dow is a pretty big miss. Cerra too. And they were the main ones in contention.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Although not sure how they manage deficits for 2027, given everyones natural selections will get pushed down a mile from Tassie.

So next year we pick Walker thereby burning our first two 2026 picks, and let the excess points go into 2027 as deficit.

We immediately trade back into the 2026 first round using our 2x 2026 seconds and 2x 2027 firsts and grab another kid or two, then let the compromised 2027 draft be a write off due to the excess points carryover.

Legal?

Edit: Guessing we'd have to keep one of our 2027 firsts if the 2026 excess has to come off a pick in the same round.

 

[coryne]

I was initially sceptical/annoyed when Cochrane was linked to Port through their NGA, but i actually think it could work out REALLY well for us. Why ??? Because I doubt there will be a bid on Cody earlier than #3 .....

Why you ask ??? Because the last time an Academy/fs was bidded on with #1 is 2020, with JUH. This is despite having the Daicos/Ashcroft brothers, and Sam Darcy, coming through.

Clubs are HUGELY reluctant to bid at #1 because they don't want to give that title to another club, and I know the system has changed, but the psychology hasn't. #1 gives yhe supporters hope and the sponsors publicity that #2 simply doesn't carry.

Then we have Cochrane at #2 so I can see Cody going at #3.


Who do I think would be selected at #1 ahead of Cochrane and Cody ??? I honestly have nfi ..... but I can't see the wooden spooners from 2026 bidding twice before taking their own selection, basically confirming that they both finished last AND received the 3rd best player for their misery.....

 

[dangertroy]

I was initially sceptical/annoyed when Cochrane was linked to Port through their NGA, but i actually think it could work out REALLY well for us. Why ??? Because I doubt there will be a bid on Cody earlier than #3 .....

Why you ask ??? Because the last time an Academy/fs was bidded on with #1 is 2020, with JUH. This is despite having the Daicos/Ashcroft brothers, and Sam Darcy, coming through.

Clubs are HUGELY reluctant to bid at #1 because they don't want to give that title to another club, and I know the system has changed, but the psychology hasn't. #1 gives yhe supporters hope and the sponsors publicity that #2 simply doesn't carry.

Then we have Cochrane at #2 so I can see Cody going at #3.


Who do I think would be selected at #1 ahead of Cochrane and Cody ??? I honestly have nfi ..... but I can't see the wooden spooners from 2026 bidding twice before taking their own selection, basically confirming that they both finished last AND received the 3rd best player for their misery.....

I was thinking something similar, but really, it’s impossible to know a year out. Cochrane could get injured and miss the year, Cody could just overtake him, Port could end up with pick one and bid on Cody… he could go higher.

Or, Cody doesn’t come on as much as predicted, or just gets overtaken by some other prospects and he drops several spots… he could go lower. Always hard to know. We were worried about having to match Ben Campo in the top 10 a year out. Moir and Lemmey were both projected in the first round a year out.

Not to mention whatever team ends up with the early picks and what their needs are, compo picks, the AFL deciding that you can only use picks to match if they are a prime number…

Personally, I’d love to see Cody bid on at Pick 3 just so we get the third Number 3 pick in a row.

 

[Red_man2008]

So basically we need pick 10 and 11 (after Cochrane bid) to draft Walker next year (assuming he is pick2).

Surely it’s better business to have all our picks bar two in the 2027 draft. Then trade back in after the Walker bid forcing the afl to rethink more rules. lol.

For example. Trade both our firsts (pick 10 and 11) for two future firsts and a second (clubs will be wanting to trade out of 2027 due to Tasmania). Use two early seconds. Go into debt by about 1400 (equivalent pick 15 in 2027).

Either go into 2027 with four first rounders. 1 shifting back 10-15 places or try and trade back in after the walker bid. If there’s a player we really want.

 

[norway blue]

Harry Dean played for Albury tigers ?

 

[CCurnow3picks]

Ok - fair comment but given the rule changes for the F/S, both this year and the proposed change next year what are your thoughts or strategy ?

One alternative :

-Too late now but keep Pick 12 and 14 instead of Jagga at 3 ? - agree you could argue this one

- Not match Harry Dean and take picks 9 and 11 - morally I feel we were obliged to match but I guess we could have passed and taken two players.

- Cody Walker 2026 - again feel we are obliged to match but I we could again choose not to match and take players with all the 2026 picks we have (2 firsts, 2 second, 2 thirds ??).

By my count that's potentially six first round players instead of three.

Even better,

Let’s trade our first round picks for 23 x future 4th rounders.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Surely it’s better business to have all our picks bar two in the 2027 draft. Then trade back in after the Walker bid forcing the afl to rethink more rules. lol.

For example. Trade both our firsts (pick 10 and 11) for two future firsts and a second (clubs will be wanting to trade out of 2027 due to Tasmania). Use two early seconds. Go into debt by about 1400 (equivalent pick 15 in 2027).

Either go into 2027 with four first rounders. 1 shifting back 10-15 places or try and trade back in after the walker bid. If there’s a player we really want.

You won't ge able to go 1400 in debt. Cant even do that now.

 

[DangerousD]

Metro we lost Nillumbuk and Banyule, basically hippies, diversity questionable.

We kept Whittlesea and Darebin, good diverse working class areas.

We gained all the Goulburn valley and a good chunk of the Murray probably the most diverse part of rural Victoria.

The metro region we lost has 200k population. The metro region we kept has 400k population.

We gained Shepparton and Hulme which is 330k population.

Gaining Goulburn valley and Murray MORE than makes up for losing 200k hippies.

Loss 200k (hippies)
Gain 330k (diverse)

Edit: In summary we gain more in population and also diversity, therefore you are wrong.

Been to Banyule much?

 

[ferrisb]

If you look at that trade historically
2015 = Callum Mills for Daniel Rioli and Tom Doedee
2016 = Hugh Mcluggage for Jordan Galluci and Jarrod Berry
2017 = Paddy Dow for Zac Bailey and Jack Higgins
2018 = Izak Rankine for Jordan Clark and Sam Stuart

Of course pick 3 is the winner each time... Except for when we had pick 3...

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Even better,

Let’s trade our first round picks for 23 x future 4th rounders.

Have you actually read the posts ?

 

[Bluebag13]

PROFILED: 2026 AFL Academy squad

The footballing calendar moves quickly and in the wake of this year's draft, eyes are already turning to the best of the 2026 crop.

central.rookieme.com

Cody Walker (Bendigo Pioneers/Vic Country)
Midfielder | 184cm | 26/01/2008

Perhaps Cochrane’s closest rival in the pick one race at this early stage, Walker was tied to Richmond’s Next Generation Academy but has already nominated Carlton as his preferred destination via father-son eligibility. The son of Andrew is highly professional and hard-working, but also has the natural burst of speed and athleticism of his father. The back-end of his year proved just how good he can be as a high-accumulating midfielder rotates forward.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Port Adelaide 2026 NGA Dougie Cochrane to join Port Adelaide's SANFL side immediately.

So when is Cody joining our VFL?