Who will be better in 2025 - Geelong or Hawthorn?

[Mr Meow]

I believe off his finals performance record he is either the best currently or one of. More the latter. He’s been best on in almost every single finals game he’s played in. It’s obviously not “he for certain is” because he hasn’t done it on the big stage of a grand final yet, cumulatively he is for sure up there.

Do take back the wording of “certainly” but certainly in the mix, and has a good case for that to be true.

Hasn't had a good prelim yet either.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hasn't had a good prelim yet either.

Fair play meowy

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Omg let’s go look at disposal counts

Don't know where anyone has mentioned that

 

[Fadge]

Cos to argue otherwise is basically to suggest that every coach, media analyst, etc have no idea whatsoever.

Welcome to the weirdass world of WalshistheGOAT

 

[Fadge]

But anyway my stance in this argument is about Holmes, not Hewett. And Max was also not in a position to be an absolute vote machine until his move to midfield in the 2024 finals series. Which actually makes his tally as an outside player rotating half back and wing that season all the more impressive. Arguably moreso than his 2025 effort, but of course midfielders are always given more recognition.

Two questions:
1. Why is is so difficult for young players playing off of half back to attract Brownlow and Coaches votes? I'm pretty sure we've recently seen a young player as a runaway leader in all individual awards, playing predominately off of half back for the first half of a season.
2. Who were the superstar Geelong midfielders taking all the votes off Holmes in 2023 and 2024?

 

[Mr Meow]

Two questions:
1. Why is is so difficult for young players playing off of half back to attract Brownlow and Coaches votes? I'm pretty sure we've recently seen a young player as a runaway leader in all individual awards, playing predominately off of half back for the first half of a season.
2. Who were the superstar Geelong midfielders taking all the votes off Holmes in 2023 and 2024?

1. Inside mids dominate the top end of Brownlow counts more than wingmen and halfbacks. Daicos doing really well there doesn't mean all halfbacks should collect the same amount of votes as primary mids.

2. Holmes wasn't primarily in midfield those years. If he was, he would have faced similar competition to Daicos the past two seasons. When he moved to midfield at the start of the 2024 finals series, he did dominate vote counts despite Smith playing alongside him in 20+ games for 2025.

Your weird Carlton obsession has caused a trail of Hewett to Newcombe to Holmes. Why don't you stick to the topic you're actually passionate about, which is throwing heat on a Carlton player.

 

[DearJai]

Don't let logic and facts get in the way of a good narrative Meowbagger. They don't like them around here.

1. Inside mids dominate the top end of Brownlow counts more than wingmen and halfbacks. Daicos doing really well there doesn't mean all halfbacks should collect the same amount of votes as primary mids.

2. Holmes wasn't primarily in midfield those years. If he was, he would have faced similar competition to Daicos the past two seasons. When he moved to midfield at the start of the 2024 finals series, he did dominate vote counts despite Smith playing alongside him in 20+ games for 2025.

Your weird Carlton obsession has caused a trail of Hewett to Newcombe to Holmes. Why don't you stick to the topic you're actually passionate about, which is throwing heat on a Carlton player.

Says weird Newcombe obsession guy throwing stones from inside wafer thin glass house.

When a guy’s 1 wood is running to space very effectively, while kicking below the average effectiveness of elite players of the same type (Karl Amon says hello), they’re not going to win as many brownlow votes as their peers.

Let alone someone like Jai Newcombe, who can kick, run, and win the ball in tight, and has done since year one.

Holmes is very good at what he does byw, and he’s found an excellent niche. He’s improved his contested game greatly too. Very obviously an A-grader.

But he’s not Jai.

 

[Mr Meow]

Says weird Newcombe obsession guy throwing stones from inside wafer thin glass house.

When a guy’s 1 wood is running to space very effectively, while kicking below the average effectiveness of elite players of the same type (Karl Amon says hello), they’re not going to win as many brownlow votes as their peers.

Let alone someone like Jai Newcombe, who can kick, run, and win the ball in tight, and has done since year one.

Holmes is very good at what he does byw, and he’s found an excellent niche. He’s improved his contested game greatly too. Very obviously an A-grader.

But he’s not Jai.

Nice to know. I am aware that Max Holmes and Jai Newcombe are different people. I look forward to your next glorious revelation.

 

[DearJai]

Nice to know. I am aware that Max Holmes and Jai Newcombe are different people. I look forward to your next glorious revelation.

And.... another straw man argument from the king of hot air.

How quaint.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Don't know where anyone has mentioned that

You literally said basic statistics

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Says weird Newcombe obsession guy throwing stones from inside wafer thin glass house.

When a guy’s 1 wood is running to space very effectively, while kicking below the average effectiveness of elite players of the same type (Karl Amon says hello), they’re not going to win as many brownlow votes as their peers.

Let alone someone like Jai Newcombe, who can kick, run, and win the ball in tight, and has done since year one.

Holmes is very good at what he does byw, and he’s found an excellent niche. He’s improved his contested game greatly too. Very obviously an A-grader.

But he’s not Jai.

He's not Jai, he's considerably better.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You literally said basic statistics

Well there's disposals... there's also contested possessions, clearances, score involvements, goals, goal assists, tackles, metres gained, turnovers etc.

You know... Stats that actually paint a picture of how effective an inside mid is in terms of ball winning + their ball use...

When you compare Newcombe to actual A graders in these categories he's rather lackluster in most.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Well there's disposals... there's also contested possessions, clearances, score involvements, goals, goal assists, tackles, metres gained, turnovers etc.

You know... Stats that actually paint a picture of how effective an inside mid is in terms of ball winning + their ball use...

When you compare Newcombe to actual A graders in these categories he's rather lackluster in most.

Yeah and it was a joke about the fact that you discredit what he said yet think all that matters is basic stats? There’s a reason analytical statistics exist. You can’t tell truely just by looking at the stats, analytics and the eyes have to come into it, hence how stupid it sounds to ignore.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Odd discussion

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Yeah and it was a joke about the fact that you discredit what he said yet think all that matters is basic stats? There’s a reason analytical statistics exist. You can’t tell truely just by looking at the stats, analytics and the eyes have to come into it, hence how stupid it sounds to ignore.

Have I said that basic stats are all that matters?

I've said that to measure a players actual output/standing in the game you need a combination of both stats and placings in individual awards.

Context is also key when talking about BnF, Brownlow, AFLCA, AFLMVP placings - What position they play in the team, if they have other stars around them to steal votes. It makes a considerable difference.

Then stats that support these claims - If their ball use is supposedly excellent they should have plenty of score involvements, score launches, score assists etc. if they're a fantastic ball winner they'll have plenty of contested possessions, clearances, CP% etc.

Unfortunately Jai Newcombe doesn't excel in any of these to signal he's a genuine A grader, even as an in an under inside mid with no competition for votes around him his best finish in the Brownlow is 10th place.

Newcombe has a good finals record. That's it.

Holmes a clear level above him after his 2025 season for reasons that have been mentioned above by Meow and myself.

 

[rye]

i cant believe i simultaneously find myself agreeing with walshy and mr meow on a topic

 

[DearJai]

i cant believe i simultaneously find myself agreeing with walshy and mr meow on a topic

Head injury?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

i cant believe i simultaneously find myself agreeing with walshy and mr meow on a topic

It's a Christmas miracle

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Holmes in 2025 broke into the next bracket of player above players like Newcombe and Hewett. Still has his flaws as a player but the damage he does with his run and carry is top class. Just a metres gained machine even if he's not the most accurate kick of the footy.

CJ was pretty good at metres gained too if your going to use that logic. Even somebody like Harry Morrison .

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

sorry, what?

you genuinely believe newcombe is the best finals player in the league?

do i have this right?

Would he not be in the discussion? He's had 4 elite matches out of 5. It's a pretty good strike rate so far.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

With the Enright/Corey etc comparisons I was talking moreso about their star player (Ablett), with Bartel some seasons as well, hogging the votes. There's only so many to go around. Swap teams for Newcombe and Hewett 2022-2025, and I think the votes would skew quite differently due to their midfield vote competitors.

But anyway my stance in this argument is about Holmes, not Hewett. And Max was also not in a position to be an absolute vote machine until his move to midfield in the 2024 finals series. Which actually makes his tally as an outside player rotating half back and wing that season all the more impressive. Arguably moreso than his 2025 effort, but of course midfielders are always given more recognition.

Newcombe was ahead of Holmes earlier as he was already capable of being a really good midfielder - Max had elite bursts as an outside player 2022-2023 but hadn't put it all together yet. Still better than his vote tallies would suggest. 2024-2025 he's moved past him and should continue to do so as long as he retains elite capacity in 3 different positions/roles. Players like that are incredibly valuable. You know all about players unlucky to miss AA selection (Hawthorn Clarkson dynasty era) - well Holmes has had a double whammy 2024/2025 for the halfback line and midfield respectively.

That's nonsense he's going to keep moving past him. He had a better year this year but if we have all of Day, McKenzie and Ward having good seasons Newcombe will go up another level. You can't really say he's going to continue to be better when we haven't seen our full complement of mids in action together week after week. Holmes had that this year when barely any of the mid group missed significant amounts of footy. Smith a few games here and there but there was continuity all year. Ward has more upside than Worpel and I dare say so does McKenzie he just needs to show it starting from next year. Day and Newcombe could easily be a great 1,2 punch the next 5-10 years. Newcombe is also not just a midfielder were training him to be multi positional as well. Stints at HF, FF etc likewise with Day who can play half back and half forward. Newcombe isn't the finished product.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Hasn't had a good prelim yet either.

Holmes hasn't got a great GF record if we're playing semantics.

 

[Mr Meow]

Holmes hasn't got a great GF record if we're playing semantics.

He'd only just turned 23 so that's his next step. He has already graduated from prelim school with 2 outstanding showings (until his hammy popped) in 2022 + 2024, then had a very good game in 2025.

Jai has had some outstanding elimination and semi finals so the next step in September is obvious.

 

[Mr Meow]

That's nonsense he's going to keep moving past him. He had a better year this year but if we have all of Day, McKenzie and Ward having good seasons Newcombe will go up another level. You can't really say he's going to continue to be better when we haven't seen our full complement of mids in action together week after week. Holmes had that this year when barely any of the mid group missed significant amounts of footy. Smith a few games here and there but there was continuity all year. Ward has more upside than Worpel and I dare say so does McKenzie he just needs to show it starting from next year. Day and Newcombe could easily be a great 1,2 punch the next 5-10 years. Newcombe is also not just a midfielder were training him to be multi positional as well. Stints at HF, FF etc likewise with Day who can play half back and half forward. Newcombe isn't the finished product.

Rotating to a forward flank briefly isn't the same as Holmes having a complete elite season as a halfback in 2024, or being the highest ranked wingman by Champion Data over the 2nd half of 2022. He is proven across full seasons in 3 different roles and can eventually be used as a utility covering all of them. Newcombe will need a block of really outstanding forward flanker games (like Dusty did) before it could even be close to the same thing.

Taking it in 2 year blocks: Over the 2022-2023 period Newcombe was better. The 2024-2025 period Holmes came out comfortably ahead and he's younger. Both can improve but Holmes ceiling is higher, with year-on-year improvement more dramatic than the steady Newcombe.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Rotating to a forward flank briefly isn't the same as Holmes having a complete elite season as a halfback in 2024, or being the highest ranked wingman by Champion Data over the 2nd half of 2022. He is proven across full seasons in 3 different roles and can eventually be used as a utility covering all of them. Newcombe will need a block of really outstanding forward flanker games (like Dusty did) before it could even be close to the same thing.

Taking it in 2 year blocks: Over the 2022-2023 period Newcombe was better. The 2024-2025 period Holmes came out comfortably ahead and he's younger. Both can improve but Holmes ceiling is higher, with year-on-year improvement more dramatic than the steady Newcombe.

Your basing that opinion on somebody that hasn't finished developing yet. Your only applying your logic to Holmes. I disagree he was comfortably ahead in 2024 considering Newcombe won a BnF in a team that finished in the top 6 and got 22 Brownlow votes. Your falling into the trap Walshy is. Newk was a late developer who didn't go through the traditional under 18s route that somebody like Holmes did either so realistically not even the club know what he's going to be like in a few years let alone a big footy expert such as yourself. Let's revisit this in 2 years time and see how our predictions are faring up.