Speculation Zach Merrett [UFA 2027]

[boncer34]

Which is?

Scotland said there's no reason for Essendon to sign him. I was just giving a reason why they would.

Thats all I'm saying. There is a reason for Essendon to sign him now.

 

[CobberRodgers]

Band 3 isnt anywhere near band 2? Interesting take.

Band 2 is end of first round, band 3 is the pick after your pick in the second round?

Is that right?

 

[boncer34]

Band 2 is end of first round, band 3 is the pick after your pick in the second round?

Is that right?

Yep

 

[CobberRodgers]

Anyway, if your worried about what you’re going to get in return for him, then you should have traded him is the point from Scotland I believe as anything you get in FA will ironically be sweet FA.

 

[CobberRodgers]

Yep

So what were you questioning then?

 

[boncer34]

So what were you questioning then?

Your statement that band 3 isnt anywhere near band 2.

 

[CobberRodgers]

Your statement that band 3 isnt anywhere near band 2.

I said second round pick, at best.

There’s a huge difference between picks in the teens and picks in the twenties, well that’s what a whole supporter base has been telling everyone for the past few months anyway.

 

[boncer34]

I said second round pick, at best.

There’s a huge difference between picks in the teens and picks in the twenties, well that’s what a whole supporter base has been telling everyone for the past few months anyway.

There is.

But its still only one band behind what I suggested. My suggestion wasnt outrageous, you're probably right, band 3 is probably more likely.

It's just not that different to band 2.

Also end of 1st round isnt a pick in the teens in the 27 draft, just an fyi.

 

[CobberRodgers]

There is.

But its still only one band behind what I suggested. My suggestion wasnt outrageous, you're probably right, band 3 is probably more likely.

It's just not that different to band 2.

Also end of 1st round isnt a pick in the teens in the 27 draft, just an fyi.

Which is why the draft is cooked. It’ll be more like 30!

 

[boncer34]

Which is why the draft is cooked. It’ll be more like 30!

The proposed changes to compo are going to alleviate some of that hopefully.

Not in 27 though.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

I've heard the 'reasons' given by Essendon supporters already (too many picks as it is, no-one to delist (haha), good player to guide them) and whilst some of those have Merrett, I still can't fully comprehend why Essendon would choose to keep Merrett instead of the offer presented.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy they did, given Hawthorn used to the picks to:

Select Cam Nairn
Select Aiden Schubert
Trade for a 2027 2nd rounder (with West Coast)
Trade for another 2027 2nd rounder (with GWS)
Retained 2027 first rounder
Retained Henry Hustwaite.

I can understand why Hawthorn may look to give up such a significant haul of picks ('overs' IMO), as they are targetting immediate success rather than future planning but I still cannot fully comprehend why Essendon, a rebuilding club with the Tassie drafts around the corner, would turn down such a haul for a 30 year old (who they may still lose for significantly less).

It still feels like it is as much about posturing and protecting Welsh, etc (from the way a short-term dip and trading captain to old rivals would look) than it is about the best interests of the club's ability to contend in the medium to long term. The thing is, most of the Essendon supporters highlighting how it was the right move are the same ones that proposed a 'good and fair deal' that they wanted prior to the trade offer that was considerably less than what ended up being rejected.

Time will tell in the end.

 

[Yoda_]

I've heard the 'reasons' given by Essendon supporters already (too many picks as it is, no-one to delist (haha), good player to guide them) and whilst some of those have Merrett, I still can't fully comprehend why Essendon would choose to keep Merrett instead of the offer presented.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy they did, given Hawthorn used to the picks to:

Select Cam Nairn
Select Aiden Schubert
Trade for a 2027 2nd rounder (with West Coast)
Trade for another 2027 2nd rounder (with GWS)
Retained 2027 first rounder
Retained Henry Hustwaite.

I can understand why Hawthorn may look to give up such a significant haul of picks ('overs' IMO), as they are targetting immediate success rather than future planning but I still cannot fully comprehend why Essendon, a rebuilding club with the Tassie drafts around the corner, would turn down such a haul for a 30 year old (who they may still lose for significantly less).

It still feels like it is as much about posturing and protecting Welsh, etc (from the way a short-term dip and trading captain to old rivals would look) than it is about the best interests of the club's ability to contend in the medium to long term. The thing is, most of the Essendon supporters highlighting how it was the right move are the same ones that proposed a 'good and fair deal' that they wanted prior to the trade offer that was considerably less than what ended up being rejected.

Time will tell in the end.

the way Tom Petroro carried himself should answer these questions

 

[Westlo]

Wonder which AI greeting Sam will go with when he see's Zach.

""Hey Zach, good to see you smashing it in pre-season. That contested work is looking sharp as ever—always impressive. How's the body holding up?"

"G'day mate, enjoyed our yarn last year. Hope you're enjoying the summer—catch up for a quick coffee if you're around?"

"Zach, still reckon you'd look good in brown & gold But seriously, killing it at training. Let's grab a chat sometime—no agendas, just footy talk."

Time will tell in the end.

Yep

But we ended up with 3 top 15 picks, 1 of which was the best pick you were offering... is another 1 going to make a difference?

Looking at NGA and F/S it's 100% better to trade Merrett this offseason, whether it's to you or GWS (can follow his mates Stringer and Laverde) or whoever.

2026 Draft - Blake Justice looking like a second rounder
2027 Draft - Bewick will be 2 first rounders, Rodan could be late first/early second (ports going to have more issues than us this draft), Darwish maybe another second rounder

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Wonder which AI greeting Sam will go with when he see's Zach.

""Hey Zach, good to see you smashing it in pre-season. That contested work is looking sharp as ever—always impressive. How's the body holding up?"

"G'day mate, enjoyed our yarn last year. Hope you're enjoying the summer—catch up for a quick coffee if you're around?"

"Zach, still reckon you'd look good in brown & gold But seriously, killing it at training. Let's grab a chat sometime—no agendas, just footy talk."


Yep

But we ended up with 3 top 15 picks, 1 of which was the best pick you were offering... is another 1 going to make a difference?

Looking at NGA and F/S it's 100% better to trade Merrett this offseason, whether it's to you or GWS (can follow his mates Stringer and Laverde) or whoever.

2026 Draft - Blake Justice looking like a second rounder
2027 Draft - Bewick will be 2 first rounders, Rodan could be late first/early second (ports going to have more issues than us this draft), Darwish maybe another second rounder

I love that using AI is some kind of burn...do people not realise that smart and qualified people use AI all the time - it's a handy tool to add to your arsenal when seeking to hone stuff, add layers to your insights, etc. In my area, we've supported many GP's, Psychiatrists and Psychologiss to use AI to support clinical note taking and to (instantly) double check best practice guidance on dosage, titration, etc.

On your second part, yes, more 1st and 2nd round picks for rebuilding clubs prior to Tassie drafts certianly do make a difference. Certainly if they come via trading a 30 year old (almost guaranteed not to be there by next flag tilt) who wants out. In fact, trading older players for large returns at their peak value is probably the quickest way to accelerate a rebuild. More good picks = either more chances at finding gun players or more assets/flexibility in doing deals. I take your point about waiting for future drafts - but not sure waiting a year and trading for less cos you have an NGA 2nd rounder makes much sense, especially after you watched Hawthorn trade the pick they offered back just 3 spots for 2 seconds next year. Those players to come would have been more easily acquired with the deal on the table than waiting the extra year (where you are almost guaranteed to receive less).

 

[jdstorm]

I've heard the 'reasons' given by Essendon supporters already (too many picks as it is, no-one to delist (haha), good player to guide them) and whilst some of those have Merrett, I still can't fully comprehend why Essendon would choose to keep Merrett instead of the offer presented.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy they did, given Hawthorn used to the picks to:

Select Cam Nairn
Select Aiden Schubert
Trade for a 2027 2nd rounder (with West Coast)
Trade for another 2027 2nd rounder (with GWS)
Retained 2027 first rounder
Retained Henry Hustwaite.

I can understand why Hawthorn may look to give up such a significant haul of picks ('overs' IMO), as they are targetting immediate success rather than future planning but I still cannot fully comprehend why Essendon, a rebuilding club with the Tassie drafts around the corner, would turn down such a haul for a 30 year old (who they may still lose for significantly less).

It still feels like it is as much about posturing and protecting Welsh, etc (from the way a short-term dip and trading captain to old rivals would look) than it is about the best interests of the club's ability to contend in the medium to long term. The thing is, most of the Essendon supporters highlighting how it was the right move are the same ones that proposed a 'good and fair deal' that they wanted prior to the trade offer that was considerably less than what ended up being rejected.

Time will tell in the end.

Essentially I think it boiled down to the question of How does this progress the list of EFC.

Rosa was on record of wanting to target A level talent. No question that Zac is an A level talent and equivalent value to Essendon looked like a way to add more A level talent.

Given that the hawks were chasing Zac to push them over the top in a flag zone I think it’s fair to say the expectation is/was that Essendon should win the trade and that the hawks successful definition would be about flags won.

I believe there would have been 3 acceptable scenarios

1. A top 5 draft pick
2. An equivalent A level player
3. Bulk picks enough to make the deal worth it.

Deal 1 had specific challenges this year with 4 teams having 8 of the top 10 spots (WCE via compo, Richmond, Essendon and Gold Coast via academy players) that left only West coast and Richmond as realistic trade partners for the required pick and neither were interested.

Deal 2: had no chance after Essendon’s disastrous health run no established player would want to go there. So that was out.

Deal 3 bulk picks.
This was the only way to get it done but there were a few issues here

1. Perceived weak draft (combined with Essendon having 4 top 30 picks already) meant bulk picks in this specific draft were less desirable then they might have been otherwise and that bringing in 6-8 top 30 picks is just too many first year players on the list. especially with Essensons senior players being unreliable in terms of health. Just can’t have that Many immature bodies. Weak draft meant Essendon couldn’t trade out their own picks if they got better ones from the hawks so the value proposition there is just not enough for a top level player.

2. Bulk future picks

Complicated by the entry of Tasmania (and increased academy investment) pushing everything backwards. The extra future first being allowed to be traded pushing up trade value of top players. With hawthorn expected to finish high up the ladder those picks aren’t that desirable. But include enough of them (4) and the chance at getting a top level player goes to about 40% which is equivalent to 1 top 5 pick and those future firsts could have helped with academy bid matching.

That would have worked for Essendon but not hawks who want those picks to chase other players.

So why is waiting a better outcome for Essendon?

It gives them a chance at opening up those other trade options.

1. A new fitness department and a lot of money might be enough to swap Zac for an established AFL player

2. It could also be used to acquire a FRP of actual value or points to potentially help Essendon match some desirable academy/FS players coming over the next few seasons.

That’s two potential pathways to A level talent that didn’t exist this year and likely why they waited

 

[briztoon]

Your statement that band 3 isnt anywhere near band 2.

Depends which team doesn’t it. For WC it’s the difference between picks 19 or 20. For Brisbane it’s the difference between picks 19 or 37.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

You dont think there's a concern at Essendon if they dont extend him now he'll walk in 27 for a end of first pick?

Thats all I'm saying. There is a reason for Essendon to sign him now.

Its not that hard to grasp.

You wouldnt get an end of first round compo in 27 due to age. From now on if he does get traded you will get less than you were offered last year (due to age).

 

[THE_GUN]

Really think that the Bombers should have traded Merrett last trade period

Bombers look 4/5 years away from being a finals team and Merrett will be finished and wont be part of the future team
The assets offered would have been great in their rebuild.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Really think that the Bombers should have traded Merrett last trade period

Bombers look 4/5 years away from being a finals team and Merrett will be finished and wont be part of the future team
The assets offered would have been great in their rebuild.

Don’t really see why that would be the case. 4-5 years is a rock bottom team. We are 3 years into a build. Caddy, Roberts, Kako, Clarke, Johnson, Nguyen, May are good bunch from the last two years. Hit with 2-3 of this years crop, add Bewick and from 28 onwards I think we would be looking at finals.

 

[THE_GUN]

Don’t really see why that would be the case. 4-5 years is a rock bottom team. We are 3 years into a build. Caddy, Roberts, Kako, Clarke, Johnson, Nguyen, May are good bunch from the last two years. Hit with 2-3 of this years crop, add Bewick and from 28 onwards I think we would be looking at finals.

When are you expecting to be a top 8 team ?

 

[matey]

Acquiring Schubert and Nairn, keeping next year’s first while improving it’s draft hand I think it’s worked out well for both clubs ……. as Merrett can provide some leadership/guidance to the youngsters around training standards etc

 

[briztoon]

Don’t really see why that would be the case. 4-5 years is a rock bottom team. We are 3 years into a build. Caddy, Roberts, Kako, Clarke, Johnson, Nguyen, May are good bunch from the last two years. Hit with 2-3 of this years crop, add Bewick and from 28 onwards I think we would be looking at finals.

Building primarily through the draft, where a list currently has very few quality players in the 24+ age group takes longer than 4 to 5 years.

Took GC 6 years after drafting Rowell and Anderson.

North still look miles off it (their back 7 is still the worst in the competition).

Essendon have a couple of “good” players over 24, but few star type players.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

When are you expecting to be a top 8 team ?

No real expectations, I just don’t think it can be predicted that much further than a year or two out. Too many moving pieces.

I’m liking what Rosa is doing, if he keeps stacking 2-3 200ish gamers types per draft which I think he did 23-24, and potentially for 25 with 3 top 13 picks, history shows stacking talent quickly in successive years is a good model for success. Say 23 was the restart of our build. 6 years would put us at 2029.

 

[THE_GUN]

No real expectations, I just don’t think it can be predicted that much further than a year or two out. Too many moving pieces.

I’m liking what Rosa is doing, if he keeps stacking 2-3 200ish gamers types per draft which I think he did 23-24, and potentially for 25 with 3 top 13 picks, history shows stacking talent quickly in successive years is a good model for success. Say 23 was the restart of our build. 6 years would put us at 2029.

Surely the rebuild started earlier than that
2020
#8 - Nick Cox
#9 - Archie Perkins
#10 - Zack Reid

2021
#13 - Ben Hobbs
2022
#5 - Elijah Tsatas
#25 - Lewis Hayes
2 x Davey Boys

Thats 5 top 13 picks in 3 years

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Building primarily through the draft, where a list currently has very few quality players in the 24+ age group takes longer than 4 to 5 years.

Took GC 6 years after drafting Rowell and Anderson.

North still look miles off it (their back 7 is still the worst in the competition).

Essendon have a couple of “good” players over 24, but few star type players.

Hawthorn were 16th in 2023 with 1 elite player over 24 in Sicily. They probably finished higher than 5 lists with more natural talent. Not all teams have the same time line or path to competitiveness. Get players that complement each other and can execute a system and the sum can quickly become better than the parts.