Analysis The Rebuilds of West Coast and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

The key benefit and difference is that Richmond kept core players like Broad, Grimes, Vlaustin, Nankervis & Lynch that were committed to bringing through the next generation and at the same time have created a culture where Hopper & Taranto are happy despite the limited prospect of success.

The Eagles have had guys like Tim Kelly just happy to turn up and take a pay check whilst going through the motions. The Covid years where the Eagles sooked it up hard has had a disastrous impact on the entire culture of the once great footy club, they are in a rut and its really hard to see a path out of it. The AFL needs a strong WC Eagles but not sure how much more they can give them.

Our version of this in 2025 was literally

Liam Duggan
Jeremy McGovern (retired half way through)
Liam Baker
Matt Flynn (a potato)
Jake Waterman (injured half way into season)
Tim Kelly (dropped to WAFL he was so crap)
Elliot Yeo (injured whole year)

Compare the pair and well yeah.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Our version of this in 2025 was literally

Liam Duggan
Jeremy McGovern (retired half way through)
Liam Baker
Matt Flynn (a potato)
Jake Waterman (injured half way into season)
Tim Kelly (dropped to WAFL he was so crap)
Elliot Yeo (injured whole year)

Compare the pair and well yeah.

Throw in Oscar Allen who missed games because he was sad and provided no leadership and can even add Jack Darling the year before who as a senior player had no interest in providing the professional standards that creates a culture of success.

FWIW before people come at me for Carlton being sh 1 t... I can say this, because I have seen it from Carlton far too often and for far too long. Won't find a bigger critic of Carlton than I... The Eagles have always been my 2nd favourite team as Ben Cousins was my favourite player as a teen, so when Carlton were grabege I always had the Eagles.. Now I have 2 teams that stink.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I’m taking Harley, Hewett, Hall, Gross (Rodriguez) over Smillie, Cumming, Mcaullife and Roberts Thompson (largely due to Harley). You’ll likely say Hewett is a Mid/Fwd (he isn’t), but I’d argue Cumming (also isn’t) and Roberts Thompson (seems to be based on champs but I don’t know enough) are just as much Mid/Fwds as Hewett.

I also think Hotton and Duursma likely end up being inside midfielders, with Lalor staying in more of a Mid/Fwd role.

100%, although while Richmonds are certainly talented, Gibcus is perennially injured (had a good preseason - fingers crossed) and I’m not convinced Trainor is a proper KPD at AFL level more an intercepting third tall (a role I could see Maric/Ginbey playing).

Is it?

Shanahan and Williams (obviously older than the Richmond group) are comfortably better performed than the Richmond trio and we’ve just drafted a pick 4 KPF/Ruck to go with Archer Reid.

I think the fact that Williams who averaged 0.9 goals in his 3rd season as a 20yo and 1.2 goals in his 4th as a 21yo, is currently ranked 4th out of the Eagles KPFs under 23 suggests it’s a very strong group.

Mostly I think that is fair enough. The way I rate our youngsters over yours is arguable. The 23yo and under players categorised as specialist inside mids may be of of roughly equal value at this point. Same could be said of the key forwards, it is all to prove for those guys. I really like the look of our guys. Richmond clearly specifically targetted the 2024 draft to load up on them and more or less took their choice from everyone left after Tauru. But there were of course others including Shanahan, & the Whitlocks left for Eagles and North, so we will see if the Tigers picked out the right ones.

The unarguable bits are probably that your wingers are better, and our key defenders and mid-forwards are better. It won't be an issue for Richmond if Trainor is a 3rd tall defender, as we have a pair of very decent 26yo key defenders in Balta and Miller. Our young mid-forwards Hotton and Lalor are probably the best in the competition 23 & under though that may depend on who you include as a mid-forward. Eagles don't have obvious stars of the future in this role at present, unless that is what Harley Reid becomes. On top of that our general forwards look a bit better at this point. You probably have a better ruck/forward in Duff-Tytler v Sims, you would certainly hope so.

I think people generally have more confidence in the way Richmond have gone about their rebuild. It is more targetted, not relied on any luck with FA's or AFL assistance, the youngsters are being guided by a load of multiple flag players, and mostly I think people can see what I see, there are the main components of a full ground structure for the future team there already. And not even brought in one proven recruit from another club yet.

Having said all of that, I do think the Eagles will be fine in time.

 

[Lia]

People talking about Lynch and if he goes down would the kids be able to replace him

We have seen that movie before and a player called Mykelti Lefau stepped in to do a fantastic job

More likely he replaces Balta as the Tiger with a curfew

 

[Daka]

I am not sure how we will go this year,
a lot of our youth have had good pre-seasons from all reports. that doesn't always translate into a good H&A season.

I am hopeful at this stage.

 

[ShereKhan]

Prefer Baker + Allan tbh

I honestly don't think this is going to age well. I followed U18's pretty closely in 2024.... leading into the draft I was hoping we'd trade up to get pick 2 to get Lalor and Jagga. I would be staggered if Jagga doesn't become an A-grade midfielder. So for a couple of seasons Baker/Allan might have the edge...but after that I think Eagles fans might be a little sick watching Jagga.

 

[wctorp]

I honestly don't think this is going to age well. I followed U18's pretty closely in 2024.... leading into the draft I was hoping we'd trade up to get pick 2 to get Lalor and Jagga. I would be staggered if Jagga doesn't become an A-grade midfielder. So for a couple of seasons Baker/Allan might have the edge...but after that I think Eagles fans might be a little sick watching Jagga.

I asked the other tiger fan who held this view but he went very quiet all of a sudden so maybe you can answer me. What do you think West Coast should have done to get Baker over the line with the draft picks we had?

 

[txbyhull]

I honestly don't think this is going to age well. I followed U18's pretty closely in 2024.... leading into the draft I was hoping we'd trade up to get pick 2 to get Lalor and Jagga. I would be staggered if Jagga doesn't become an A-grade midfielder. So for a couple of seasons Baker/Allan might have the edge...but after that I think Eagles fans might be a little sick watching Jagga.

To be fair, something I haven’t seen mentioned is that Jagga is a Vic Metro kid. We don’t really draft them because they’re usually sooky pricks that don’t want to leave Victoria (I’m looking at you Harry Sheezel)

 

[ShereKhan]

Because if we’re being honest the hype around Richmond’s rebuild isn’t based on them at all and their picks they were taken is largely irrelevant at this point. You can include them if you like and I’d still take both the Eagles and North picks, I did the eagles one for you below (North has had better picks (on number) than the eagles in that time).

The other reason is that in a redraft of 2021 a lot of the Richmond picks would have fallen dramatically, the same can’t be said of either Norths or WC’s picks in 2022-2023.


This is all pretty irrelevant to my post, given none of the players they lost were part of this impressive draft haul.

This reads as serious cope, Richmond didn’t plan to lose all of Bolton, Rioli and Baker.

It’s true the 2024 draft was considered to have strong depth while weaker than previous years at the very top end. I struggle to believe this is some kind of master plan from Richmond. 2021, 2022 and 2023 were considered stronger at the top end. The 2021 draft was considered to be very strong in the top end (where you only had pick 9) and weak depth wise.

Draft points are awful at assessing pick value, we both know this.

Let’s add the 2021 draft in, bolded are the biggest discrepancies between the two hauls:
Tigers: 1, 7, 7, 8, 9, 12, 14, 17, 21, 23, 28, 28, 29, 30 31, 40, 43, 49, 54, 55, 58

Eagles: 1, 1, 4, 9, 14, 16, 19, 23, 29, 29, 30, 30, 31, 37, 38, 39, 46, 48, 49, 57, 58, 65

I’m still taking the eagles picks, but agree it’s relatively similar. I think the biggest difference is the majority of the eagles picks still on the list from 2021 go higher in a redraft, don’t think the same can be said for Richmond’s picks.


True and that deserves praise in itself but it’s irrelevant for the future prospects of the sides.

Again don’t believe this, Richmond didn’t force Rioli, Baker and Bolton out the club.

Eagles and Nort aren’t paying salary to any other clubs either.

Do you truly believe Richmond forced those three out of the club?

Of course they weren't forced out of the club.

But when there were very interested buyers chock full of quality draft picks in a very deep draft...well....how long do you think we debated holding them to their contracts as opposed to getting the draft picks?

We could've made a Merrett, Humphrey, Marshall decision and held them to their contracts, no worries at all.....but the loot on offer was too good to refuse.

 

[ShereKhan]

I asked the other tiger fan who held this view but he went very quiet all of a sudden so maybe you can answer me. What do you think West Coast should have done to get Baker over the line with the draft picks we had?

You trade Barrass to the Hawks for pick #14 and use that pick for Baker. Done.

But you fell asleep at the wheel whilst Hawks traded that pick to Carlton, and the rest is history.

None of it matters if your selections made with the other picks are guns and/or Jagga is a dud, so it might all work out positively.

But to enter a trade period with Barass who wanted out to Hawks who had #14, pick #3, first pick in the PSD and Baker out of contract......and come out the other side missing pick #3 is shambolic.

 

[ShereKhan]

Probably tough for you to get your head around but Richmond definitely wanted in to the 2024 draft from a long way out, their 2023 trading tells you that. In fact you can see the drafts they have targetted, it is very obvious, my earlier post quoted below on the matter showed that really clearly.

Once a club wants into a particular draft, it is obvious they will try to get any players who are open to leaving to choose that year to leave. Exactly what happened in 2024.

Richmond traded Soldo for futures into 2024. They also slid down in the 2023 draft twice from pick 35 to 40, picking up 2 x futures for the 2024 draft in the process. It was crystal clear they were beefing up picks for 2024.

And I don't blame oppo supporters for not knowing this as it never became public, but Baker as an example was really home sick at end of 2022, and the club convinced him to stay. When he was coming to the end of that contract during 2024, I'm pretty sure the club wasn't quite as forceful in their desire to have him recommit. I believe they would've preferred to keep him as quality players are hard to get, but i also believe it wasn't the end of the world for him to go - timing was perfect for everyone.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Richmond traded Soldo for futures into 2024. They also slid down in the 2023 draft twice from pick 35 to 40, picking up 2 x futures for the 2024 draft in the process. It was crystal clear they were beefing up picks for 2024.

And I don't blame oppo supporters for not knowing this as it never became public, but Baker as an example was really home sick at end of 2022, and the club convinced him to stay. When he was coming to the end of that contract during 2024, I'm pretty sure the club wasn't quite as forceful in their desire to have him recommit. I believe they would've preferred to keep him as quality players are hard to get, but i also believe it wasn't the end of the world for him to go - timing was perfect for everyone.

It is blindingly obvious when you are across all the relevant publicly available facts that Richmond wanted out of the 2022 & 2023 drafts and wanted to major in the 2024 draft. They probably weren't anticipating taking 7 x top 28 picks from years in advance, but their faith in the draft crop is why they ended up with that many picks.

 

[ShereKhan]

This interests me, at this stage and whilst it’s very very early for the 2024 draftees I’d have (including RD and MSD as it felt silly not including some):

Eagles -
Good pick (worth more than their selection/moved up in a redraft): Hough, J.Williams, Shanahan, Gross, Maric, Dewar, Long (although just did a knee), Hutchinson, Davis
Poor pick (worth less than their selection/moved down in a redraft): Chesser, Barnett, Burgiel
Proven worthy of their pick: Reid, Ginbey, Hewett, A.Reid, Hall
Jury out: Allan, Duurs, CDT, Lindsay, Grego, Allen, Williams

Tigers -
Good pick: Campbell, Green, Mcaullife, Young, Trezise, Gray, Trainor
Poor pick: Gibcus, Sonsie (reportedly could change this year), Clarke
Proven (/confident they will) worthy of their pick: Lalor, Hotton, Amstrong, Brown, Banks, Alger
Jury out: Smillie, Faull, Sims, Cumming, Grilj, Puecker, Roberts-Thompson

Injuries have obviously played a big part in both sides poor picks and it could change as they’re still young, but this is solely based on their exposed form at the level.

Obviously there’s nuances as to how good/bad a pick is due to draft positions (e.g Campbell is a better pick than Hough, Gibcus a worse miss than Burgiel). As well as nuances in how proven a player is (Reid obviously goes 1 in a redraft, Lalor may not).

But on exposed form I think it’s pretty bias to rate Richmonds higher.

These are all pretty stupid ratings.

You've basically seen certain Eagles players were not taken in the top-30, and if they've played some games, no matter how uninspiring or crap, you've popped them in the 'good pick' category...

Noah Long has played 36 games over 3-years. He has rated 6.08 / 4.63, then 3.47 in his 10 games of 2025. He's quite amazingly reducing his rating every season.....but hey, you got him at #58, so a 'good pick'.

And Tom Gross - he pumped out a 3.48 rating in his 8 games. Averaged 8.8 disposals. But you got him at #46...what a great pick! He might end up OK....but rating him a 'good pick' already? Really..??

And Jack Williams...wow! 42 games in 4-years. Career disposal average of 7.7, 2.6 marks and 3 x SI a game.....but what a great pick at #57.

And Hewett was #14...yet he's proven to justify a first round pick on the back of averaging 15 disposals in 34 games?

Eagles have been horrid for 4 x years. Getting games in that team isn't an automatic feather in anyone's cap. Same as getting games for Richmond across 2024-25.

I don't look at MRJ, Green, Smith, Tresize etc... with a bunch of games and automatically rate them as 'good picks' because we picked them down the draft or as a rookie etc...and they've played senior footy. It means almost nothing getting games in poor teams with injury troubles, regardless of where you are picked.

Williams doesn't look like much of a player - just because he's played 42 mostly crappy games, doesn't make him a good pick.

 

[txbyhull]

These are all pretty stupid ratings.

You've basically seen certain Eagles players were not taken in the top-30, and if they've played some games, no matter how uninspiring or crap, you've popped them in the 'good pick' category...

Noah Long has played 36 games over 3-years. He has rated 6.08 / 4.63, then 3.47 in his 10 games of 2025. He's quite amazingly reducing his rating every season.....but hey, you got him at #58, so a 'good pick'.

And Tom Gross - he pumped out a 3.48 rating in his 8 games. Averaged 8.8 disposals. But you got him at #46...what a great pick! He might end up OK....but rating him a 'good pick' already? Really..??

And Jack Williams...wow! 42 games in 4-years. Career disposal average of 7.7, 2.6 marks and 3 x SI a game.....but what a great pick at #57.

And Hewett was #14...yet he's proven to justify a first round pick on the back of averaging 15 disposals in 34 games?

Eagles have been horrid for 4 x years. Getting games in that team isn't an automatic feather in anyone's cap. Same as getting games for Richmond across 2024-25.

I don't look at MRJ, Green, Smith, Tresize etc... with a bunch of games and automatically rate them as 'good picks' because we picked them down the draft or as a rookie etc...and they've played senior footy. It means almost nothing getting games in poor teams with injury troubles, regardless of where you are picked.

Williams doesn't look like much of a player - just because he's played 42 mostly crappy games, doesn't make him a good pick.

This is like me saying just because Sam Banks has had 1 decent season in the easiest role in footy doesn’t mean he’s good.

 

[wctorp]

You trade Barrass to the Hawks for pick #14 and use that pick for Baker. Done.

But you fell asleep at the wheel whilst Hawks traded that pick to Carlton, and the rest is history.

None of it matters if your selections made with the other picks are guns and/or Jagga is a dud, so it might all work out positively.

But to enter a trade period with Barass who wanted out to Hawks who had #14, pick #3, first pick in the PSD and Baker out of contract......and come out the other side missing pick #3 is shambolic.

Which would’ve ended up costing us Bo Allan, Josh Lindsay and Tom Gross at the end of the day.

Lindsay looks like a gem already, Allan could be anything at 191cm while being one of the most athletic guys in his draft cohort and Gross has had a decent start to his career so far.

All in all the split worked out well for us in the end.

 

[Morro]

This is like me saying just because Sam Banks has had 1 decent season in the easiest role in footy doesn’t mean he’s good.

Ya boy Waterman is much older and had one good season, I wouldnt use that line

 

[txbyhull]

Ya boy Waterman is much older and had one good season, I wouldnt use that line

70.32 in 28 games since he became number 1 kpf mind you. In the worst eagles sides of all time, in one of the more difficult positions in footy. Not comparable at all lol. You see guys like Caleb Daniel put up stats in the same role Banks plays. Get a grip lol

 

[Morro]

70.32 in 28 games since he became number 1 kpf mind you. In the worst eagles sides of all time, in one of the more difficult positions in footy. Not comparable at all lol. You see guys like Caleb Daniel put up stats in the same role Banks plays. Get a grip lol

One good season, the rest is noise

 

[Obeanie1]

The rage that Brady Hough inspires in these Richmond fans is a mystery to me

It's no mystery.

Tigers fans are cranky that we selected Hough at 31 who is a better player than any of the 5 they took.

 

[txbyhull]

One good season, the rest is noise

the insinuation that the value provided to a team by a cheap touch half back is equal to that of a number 1 key forward is actually laughable

 

[Morro]

the insinuation that the value provided to a team by a cheap touch half back is equal to that of a number 1 key forward is actually laughable

One season, one only, ages 28. Just one. No more, no less, just 1. That is the discussion and the facts.

 

[Obeanie1]

One season, one only, ages 28. Just one. No more, no less, just 1. That is the discussion and the facts.

And Waterman is a better KPF than anything the Tigers have up forward.

If we are talking facts.

 

[txbyhull]

One season, one only, ages 28. Just one. No more, no less, just 1. That is the discussion and the facts.

maybe the lack of nuance is why Richmond's youth is seen as better. It would be equally as ridiculous for me to say Lalor isn't good because he didn't even play a full season. That's not true because on exposed form he was good and he was injured. Equally so me saying that McAuliffe is a good young player, given that he has been stuck behind your main trio of vet midfielders. A lack of ability to acknowledge and accept that these players careers are more complicated than numbers is astonishing.

My comment around Sam Banks was pointing out how silly that is. Obviously Sam is a talented young player who has just gotten his opportunity as the number 1 in his preferred position. It took Waterman years to get that because he suffered a chronic bowel disease while ALSO playing behind the 2 best KPF in club history, a healthy OA, and other more mature bodies. You wouldn't say Sam Banks is shit because he had to wait until Rioli left to get his chance at being the main guy. It's similar to the Deven Robertson discourse. People say he is shit because he couldn't break into the best team in the comp consistently, ahead of the best defensive midfielder in the league.

 

[txbyhull]

And Watwrman is a better KPF than anything the Tigers have up forward.

If we are talking facts.

No no no, you're forgetting that Faull and Armstrong are better than Shanahan. Because reasons! Not because Jobe averages almost more goals per than those 2 combined. And more marks than either. And more scoring shots. And tackles. And Frees For. If we are playing the numbers card and ignoring everything else. While being the youngest

 

[Milanista28]

Watching this game I think supporters of both clubs can thank the heavens they're not Essendon fans.

I understand it's a preseason game but gee, their skills are absolutely ****ing horrific.

Went a little early, thought we did some nice things as the game went on, Caddy was great, worth going just to watch him.