Unsolved The Beaumont Children

[GreyCrow]

Lol I know right... like if Cotton was supposedly with Nancy, then he obviously couldn't of simultaneously taken the kids

I have a theory where he could

Panic killing when they come home to find Bill in the house

This supposes they made it home

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Accuracy is moderate at best!

In general, a composite sketch doesn't work because a stranger can match it perfectly, but because someone who already knows the person might recognise the overall “look”

All the research ect concludes that older feature based systems like Identikit/PhotoFIT perform signifigantly worse than more modern holistic/digital systems like EvoFIT

Most accurate:

• Modern holistic systems (eg. EvoFIT)
• Witness judge entire faces rather than individual features

- consistently outperforms the other traditional methods

As per research paper:

• EvoFIT composites directly led to arrest in 25.4% of cases in one operational police audit
• Arrest rate increased to 38.5% when improved cognitive interview methods were used

Moderate accurate:
Forensic artist sketches
- trained artists using cognitive interview techniques can produce good results but the accuracy varies depending on artist skill and witness memory

Least accurate:
Feature- selection systems (eg old traditional Identikit / PhotoFIT style)
- Witness selects individual features (eyes, nose, mouth)ect. from a cataloguee

Abd yet that reliability was tested in facial recognition software in a channel 9 special searching database of over 5000 criminals and nominated Arthur Brown as no 1 match and earlier version of Brown was no 4 match

 

[BonzaRam]

Abd yet that reliability was tested in facial recognition software in a channel 9 special searching database of over 5000 criminals and nominated Arthur Brown as no 1 match and earlier version of Brown was no 4 match

So what is like when applied to a database of say 25 million people?

 

[Ostins_Park]

So what is like when applied to a database of say 25 million people?

1 out of 25 million would be case closed, but 1 in 5000 would still be 'statistically significant'.

I would like Channel 9 to give more information on the sampling and experiment technique used in this photo matching exercise.

Because if n >= 5000 and each variable/photo is a different human of similar appearance, AND (crucially) the system can be demonstrated to have a rigorous facial mapping process (kind of like the facial dimension details Newbie puts up) then the AO case gets blown wide open.

But if it's just a commercial television grift, then...meh.

 

[newbie11]

I have a rare neurological condition:

• It affects about 5 in every 100,000 people (global population)
• 90 % of diagnoses occur in people over the age of 50

*the condition causes excruciating pain) > some studies suggest that ½ of all patients diagnosed will take their own lives within 3 years of symptoms starting

• - -
• I've had it since I was 21
• still standing, still breathing

Statisically speaking, I likely don't even exist

**Edit: I did the math, statisically speaking I am 1 in 2.2 million people.

So this is why i've got a bit of personal bias when it comes to reliance on statistics for determining anything.
However, in the bid of being objective, my first questions would be:
- He is 1 in 5000, out of what data pool?

Out of 5000 suspects? Whose 5000 suspects? According to police? According to them?
What is the criteria to be considered a suspect?
Its not science if you are bias the data, which is why the data pool must include non-suspects as well. Its for the same reason that when we do like clinical trials for eg: all of the participants are randomly assigned to different groups, and the study is conducted simultaneously, with one group receiving the treatment and another receiving a placebo. This is done to reduce bias and ensures that any differences in outcomes between the groups can be more reliably attributed to the treatment itself rather than other factors

 

[newbie11]

Hmm perhaps this an angle where some actual progress could be made..

Discussion task:
What is the criteria to be considered a suspect in the BC case?

DropBearess anything you can tell us about the pyschology/ personality/ behaviour ect of the suspect?

 

[BonzaRam]

1 out of 25 million would be case closed, but 1 in 5000 would still be 'statistically significant'.

I would like Channel 9 to give more information on the sampling and experiment technique used in this photo matching exercise.

Because if n >= 5000 and each variable/photo is a different human of similar appearance, AND (crucially) the system can be demonstrated to have a rigorous facial mapping process (kind of like the facial dimension details Newbie puts up) then the AO case gets blown wide open.

But if it's just a commercial television grift, then...meh.

From what I have read about facial recognition is that the software used today is very accurate, some say up to 97% accuracy, they also say that the human factor involved in facial recognition has an error rate of up to 60%.

To me that says it is another case of something being only as good the person operating it.

 

[GreyCrow]

Hmm perhaps this an angle where some actual progress could be made..

Discussion task:
What is the criteria to be considered a suspect in the BC case?

DropBearess anything you can tell us about the pyschology/ personality/ behaviour ect of the suspect?

I would argue first you need to find a workable theory

I think I mentioned a few previously - see if I can remember

Lone person spontaneous/accidental killing - my theory
Lone person targetted abduction - instant family
More than 1 person targetted instant family abduction ie couple
Lone person targetted sexual attraction to one or more
More than 1 person targetted sexual attraction to one or more - ie sexual predator cohorts

Family member - various scenarios with all of the above included

This then would include Munro , Marshall theory + Hart , Davis , Brown , Percy

Bill Cotton fits the spontaneous/accidental theory as does my suspect David Smith

I deliberatley do not include Phipps or McIntyre

 

[newbie11]

I would argue first you need to find a workable theory

I think I mentioned a few previously - see if I can remember

Lone person spontaneous/accidental killing - my theory
Lone person targetted abduction - instant family
More than 1 person targetted instant family abduction ie couple
Lone person targetted sexual attraction to one or more
More than 1 person targetted sexual attraction to one or more - ie sexual predator cohorts

Family member - various scenarios with all of the above included

This then would include Munro , Marshall theory + Hart , Davis , Brown , Percy

Bill Cotton fits the spontaneous/accidental theory as does my suspect David Smith

I deliberatley do not include Phipps or McIntyre

With all other avenues appearing to otherwise exhaustated and speculative at this point. I am still strongly drawn back to Scott Hill's father alleged sighting — theres a few things which really add weight to its credability:
1. He did already know the children. So this isn't a 'I maybe saw kids matching this discription' situation, rather its a positive identification. 'I saw Jane, Arnna and Grant'
2. He doesn't just make a unknown persons statement. He recogonises one of these people he claims to have seen the children with.

" I saw Jane, Arnna & Grant with ....... . I recognise him as a local strapper. There was another man and woman with them who I did not recogonise"

Its the best lead the case has probably got in my view

 

[DropBearess]

Hmm perhaps this an angle where some actual progress could be made..

Discussion task:
What is the criteria to be considered a suspect in the BC case?

DropBearess anything you can tell us about the pyschology/ personality/ behaviour ect of the suspect?

Profiling a possible offender here is quite tricky, given recent confirmation of the 'elephant in the room' most of us knew about or suspected. This means the children were probably away from home, or left alone, much more frequently than we were led to believe. They possibly had many opportunities to meet, befriend and trust goodness knows who.

If we are to assume the children were abducted, hurt and killed, these are my thoughts:

• l feel a single offender was responsible. Co-ordinating the abduction of three children in broad daylight alone would be too risky. It is very rare in Australia for a male accomplice to be enlisted to assist in the murder of children.
• He has probably felt inferior and downtrodden all his life, hence is attracted to the lowest. common denomination in humankind, children. He wants to defeat even them to feel important.
• The offender knew the children in some way.
• l am thinking the offender was an 'organised' killer, probably very practiced and waiting for the opportunity. He left no clues behind.
• l believe he had killed before. Three children at once wasn't his first rodeo.
• He may have frequented the area for practice purposes, but wasn't local or known, hence no recognition from anyone.
• The skills required to abduct and kill three children without a trace suggests the killer was intelligent, inventive and confident.
• He probably presents to family and friends as a very strange but acceptable 'cold fish' who was often or always in his own world. People probably avoided him.
• Looking into the eyes of three children when they were probably dying suggests he is/was a highly disturbed and exceptionally dangerous individual, far beyond the realms of psychological scales and assessments.

My opinion only. Let's hope he isn't still alive.

 

[newbie11]

The Beaumont children disappearance is fundamentally not a snatch-and-grab offence—and I've become more and more convinced that’s the mistake everything else keeps getting built on

Any Australian comparisons default to (Adelaide Oval, Mackay, etc.) these follow the same basic structure: rapid seizure, immediate control, minimal interaction. That’s the MO; its fast, efficient, low exposure

This isn’t that.

What you see in the Beaumont case is a completely different control mechanism —social engagement, trust building, gradual compliance. The kids weren’t overpowered; they were led. That shifts the entire framework from force based abduction into luring/grooming dynamics

And once you actually remove the false analogues, you’re left with the real issue:

There is no strong Australian comparison for this. Or ... as far as I can tell, theres not a Global comparisson for this.

Three victims.
Public, broad daylight setting.
Extended voluntary interaction.

That’s not just “rare” — it’s structurally anomalous.

Thus has an important implication: we’ve probably been applying the wrong offender model altogether. Most discussions default to either a serial sexual predator or an opportunistic abductor ... but both of those rely on speed, control, and risk minimisation

This offender did the opposite

 

[Inspector Small]

This is just the right type of suspect people should be looking for.

Someone who could easily build rapport with children. I mentioned that a younger male teacher with historical sex abuse charges would be another group. It was school holidays and he likely groomed them on the days prior to their disappearance. He would have to be off work to do that.

I am placing this here as a way forward.

Back in January when I lasted looked and posted, we were arguing about whether Nancy was an absent mother. It looks like people have come around.

We are looking at perp who can build rapport with young children. Think of people in that category. They may already have a record of abusing children. They will be smooth and likeable.

 

[Poppy Penny]

I am placing this here as a way forward.

Back in January when I lasted looked and posted, we were arguing about whether Nancy was an absent mother. It looks like people have come around.

We are looking at perp who can build rapport with young children. Think of people in that category. They may already have a record of abusing children. They will be smooth and likeable.

Agree about the perp building a rapport. I believe Nancy and Jim trusted Jane looking after and protecting her younger siblings. Arnna and Grant would have known to follow Jane’s instructions. So I believe the perp only had to win Jane’s trust.
I believe Jane was probably a sensible young girl for her age, so I agree the perp would need to be smooth and likeable.
My instinct has always made me query if the perp was a teacher at her school. As a teacher, they had the perfect cover to groom Jane. IMOO

 

[Ostins_Park]

This is heading in the right direction. I favour the itinerant worker at the funfair rides, hiding from bakery staff. All he'd have to do is lure them to the nearby mobile trucks and caravans that are often seen alongside fair ground rides.

Can any of the locals describe if this type of large mobile transport unit were part of the funfair infrastructure?

 

[Poppy Penny]

This is heading in the right direction. I favour the itinerant worker at the funfair rides, hiding from bakery staff. All he'd have to do is lure them to the nearby mobile trucks and caravans that are often seen alongside fair ground rides.

Can any of the locals describe if this type of large mobile transport unit were part of the funfair infrastructure?

I think an itinerant worker from the fun fair rides is certainly another possibility. I wonder how long the funfair was in operation that summer, especially before the disappearance. And how often the children were at the beach, especially on their own. These questions relate to the length of a possible grooming period needed to build trust and lure the children away. IMOO

 

[Inspector Small]

This is heading in the right direction. I favour the itinerant worker at the funfair rides, hiding from bakery staff. All he'd have to do is lure them to the nearby mobile trucks and caravans that are often seen alongside fair ground rides.

Can any of the locals describe if this type of large mobile transport unit were part of the funfair infrastructure?

Do you really think it was “sideshow bob”. They mostly creep you out.

I find it hard to believe someone like that could build rapport over an extended period.

A bit late now but I would of looked more carefully in the week prior to what happened.

 

[northernsoul]

I would argue first you need to find a workable theory

I think I mentioned a few previously - see if I can remember

Lone person spontaneous/accidental killing - my theory
Lone person targetted abduction - instant family
More than 1 person targetted instant family abduction ie couple
Lone person targetted sexual attraction to one or more
More than 1 person targetted sexual attraction to one or more - ie sexual predator cohorts

Family member - various scenarios with all of the above included

This then would include Munro , Marshall theory + Hart , Davis , Brown , Percy

Bill Cotton fits the spontaneous/accidental theory as does my suspect David Smith

I deliberatley do not include Phipps or McIntyre

Can you tell us more about your suspect David Smith and why he is top of your list? thanks.

 

[DropBearess]

This is heading in the right direction. I favour the itinerant worker at the funfair rides, hiding from bakery staff. All he'd have to do is lure them to the nearby mobile trucks and caravans that are often seen alongside fair ground rides.

Can any of the locals describe if this type of large mobile transport unit were part of the funfair infrastructure?

The carnivals at Glenelg usually began in early December and remained until mid-February. In those days there were only 3 school terms, with the summer achool holidays lasting 8 weeks. We visited the carnival often in the 60s. In those days, no big transport units were there. Most of the games and rides were run by local operators with casuals employed when necessary. They mostly went home at night, with casuals often staying at West Beach Caravan Park. Small generators were usually used, apart from a few bigger rides from interstate such as Whittingslows. Security staff were employed overnight so stalls were reasonably safe.

Nevertheless, our parents always accompanied us to the carnival, as our father was dubious about what he called 'odd-bods' from places unknown

 

[GreyCrow]

Can you tell us more about your suspect David Smith and why he is top of your list? thanks.

One of the difficulties I have is why all 3 ? Its why I struggle with the sex offender model - they would more likely target a lone child rather than deal with all 3

The recent discussion about someone being in Nancys home might also elevate someone else but the reasoning is similar

Why Smith? At the time he was the one who inserted himself into the conversation . I am concerned at his '' memory '' given it was well after the day. He lived and worked close as did his mother

By living close it eliminates the amount of times the children were noticed

The above post about the carny worker putting them into a truck - while possible - seems dangerous . Unless the speculation they are already dead and even that seems impossible

I have always felt this was an accidental killing of 1 child and deliberate of the other 2 and Smith and now another are for me high on my list

Proximity and opportunity and escapeability ( the ability to get out of the area with 3 children )

 

[northernsoul]

One of the difficulties I have is why all 3 ? Its why I struggle with the sex offender model - they would more likely target a lone child rather than deal with all 3

The recent discussion about someone being in Nancys home might also elevate someone else but the reasoning is similar

Why Smith? At the time he was the one who inserted himself into the conversation . I am concerned at his '' memory '' given it was well after the day. He lived and worked close as did his mother

By living close it eliminates the amount of times the children were noticed

The above post about the carny worker putting them into a truck - while possible - seems dangerous . Unless the speculation they are already dead and even that seems impossible

I have always felt this was an accidental killing of 1 child and deliberate of the other 2 and Smith and now another are for me high on my list

Proximity and opportunity and escapeability ( the ability to get out of the area with 3 children )

Munro fits the bill too - for me moreso than Smith. Convicted Pdf, is native to the area and is mentioned by Max Mc as being an associate - and possibly (if i remember rightly) had connections with the carny's. He's obviously SUPER dodgy. There had to be a conspiracy between people to pull this off - but Munro seems at the centre.

 

[Inspector Small]

Which one is David Smith.

 

[GreyCrow]

Which one is David Smith.

The person who went off to Vietnam then came back and said " oh yeah I remember that day 3 kiddies went into the bakery""

 

[newbie11]

Based on witness accounts, Grant initiated contact with the suspect, engaging in playful behaviour (jumping over his legs ect.) So this indicates that, at 4 years old, he either recognised the individual or perceived him as safe. Children of this age typically have well developed facial recognition and can identify familiar adults, suggesting the suspect is almost definately not some unknown. Being on 4 yrs of age limits who and where prior familiarity could have been indirectly established by... whether thru his parents or sisters, although notably, neither sister facilitated the interaction on this occasion

Developmentally, a 4 yr can recognise known individuals across settings, though an unexpected environment may momentarily reduce certainty. A 3 yr old retains similar but less consistent recognition, with greater reliance on context. A 2yr old recognition is more limited, largely restricted to primary caregivers and highly familiar individuals, and is strongly dependent on environmental and emotional cues...

Thus strongly suggests the suspect most likely someone to be somone where contact there a reasonable amount of contact within a time frame of abt 1 - 2 years

So if we are looking at sisters teachers ect ect, most likely narrow it down to their teachers ect 1964- 1966 then working backwards

 

[Ostins_Park]

The person who went off to Vietnam then came back and said " oh yeah I remember that day 3 kiddies went into the bakery""

As a theory, it's as viable as any, but I do wonder why Smith would suddenly just turn up and insert himself into it, if he'd already flown under the radar for 45-50 years.

The only thing I can think of is he's clocked the Munro link in the media and then tried to stitch him up for it. But still. It seems a long bow.

 

[newbie11]

What evidence is there that connects Munro?