Analysis 2026 umpiring in games involving 1 Victorian team vs. 1 Non Victorian team

[grilledboard]

Here is what I've found if I haven't ****ed up the data




here is the googledoc if you want to have a look and see if I have stuffed it up



The data set is from here (i spot checked a couple of games and it matched)

Australian Football League (AFL) Database

All of the key stats, game by game, player by player

www.kaggle.com

 

[Crow-eater]

An update for us this round

Brisbane v Collingwood - 17-17
Richmond v Port - 27-14

Melbourne v Suns still to come.

 

[1990crow]

An update for us this round

Brisbane v Collingwood - 17-17
Richmond v Port - 27-14

Melbourne v Suns still to come.

Deeply concerning.

 

[SellarStardom]

Rant incoming. But please read.

Free kicks for Victorian teams vs. Non Victorian teams - Running count

Winning the count
Victorian teams: 14
Non Victorian: 1
Draw: 1

Total frees
Victorian teams: 342
Non Victorian teams: 261

There may be an argument for home team bias, winning teams earn more frees.

Here are som examples of this not happening so far in 2026: All these games free kick counts were won by the losing, away team.

GWS (122) vs. Hawthorn (95) - Sydney
Gold Coast (125) vs Geelon (69) - GC
Port (133) vs Essendon (70) AO
Freo (118) v Melbourne (70) - Perth
west Coast (111) vs North Melbourne (94) - Perth

This is an extreme statistical anomaly. One that doesn't make sense. One that MUST be investigated by Sports Integrity Australia and the ACMA and I will be emailing them to do so.

Look it could be one giant coincidence. But it might not be. And it isn't sitting well with me.

Will anything be done? Almost certainly not. But I'm sick of it.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Needs to be picked up by all the non-Vic media and an official compliant registered and spread so that the Vic media picks it up.

The referring to Sports Integrity Ausyralia is a good one, nothing will happen bit there needs to be some noise around this

 

[BunjiMC]

Vic: 17 (443 frees in games between Vic and non Vic)
Non Vic: 2 (351 frees in games between Vic and non Vic)
Draw: 2

 

[1990crow]

Vic: 17 (443 frees in games between Vic and non Vic)
Non Vic: 2 (351 frees in games between Vic and non Vic)
Draw: 2

18-2-2

 

[BunjiMC]

And it goes on! Absolutely unbelievable.

2026 Free kicks for Victorian teams vs. Non Victorian teams - Running count

Winning the count
Victorian teams: 18
Non Victorian: 2
Draw: 2

Total frees
Victorian teams: 462
Non Victorian teams: 368

 

[1990crow]

And it goes on! Absolutely unbelievable.

2026 Free kicks for Victorian teams vs. Non Victorian teams - Running count

Winning the count
Victorian teams: 18
Non Victorian: 2
Draw: 2

Total frees
Victorian teams: 462
Non Victorian teams: 368

Smells very troy pannelli

 

[Punchy Bassett]

Just wait until Thursday night.

 

[bigman]

And it goes on! Absolutely unbelievable.

2026 Free kicks for Victorian teams vs. Non Victorian teams - Running count

Winning the count
Victorian teams: 18
Non Victorian: 2
Draw: 2

Total frees
Victorian teams: 462
Non Victorian teams: 368

That really shouldn’t even be possible.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

That really shouldn’t even be possible.

Statistically proven that the umpires are biased in their support of Victorian teams as it's near on statistically impossible to be chance.

 

[Geoffa32]

Be interesting to see if anyone in the media picks up on this.

 

[pjcrows]

Be interesting to see if anyone in the media picks up on this.

 

[CrowMania1990]

Those numbers make interesting reading. Are there betting markets for which team will get the most free kicks a game? Might be an opportunity to make some money if the trend continues.

 

[Mutineer]

Be interesting to see if anyone in the media picks up on this.

Vic bias? The 2026 AFL Free Kick Ladder - Round 4

The best and worst differentials.

www.sen.com.au

 

[SugarShane]

Vic bias? The 2026 AFL Free Kick Ladder - Round 4

The best and worst differentials.

www.sen.com.au

Geelong genuinely approaching 2016 Bulldogs territory. 102-58 is staggering.

Also funny to note Carlton and Collingwood are in the bottom 10 with negative differentials. But the only reason they have negative differentials is because of games against other Vic teams. Against interstate sides they are still:
Carlton: 23-19 from one game
Collingwood: 47-44 from 3 games

 

[BunjiMC]

Those numbers make interesting reading. Are there betting markets for which team will get the most free kicks a game? Might be an opportunity to make some money if the trend continues.

Sadly betting companies don't let you bet on known results.

 

[Coopers]

How the **** can Geelong have +11 differential per game, over 4 games.

That's nuts. That's like an extra player.

 

[ams4crows]

Pretty obvious problem

 

[OzSparrow]

How the **** can Geelong have +11 differential per game, over 4 games.

That's nuts. That's like an extra player.

The Cats have received 102 frees and given away only 58.
That is an average of only 14.5 frees against per game in 4 games played.
That is an average of only 3.6 frees against per quarter per game. In an average of 30 minutes of footy per quarter!
That's an average of less than 1 free against for every 10 minutes of footy. 10 freaking minutes! Are you kidding me?
That is insane. Ridiculous.
They must be the cleanest most disciplined side running around.
Or maybe something else?????

 

[Crow till I die]

Pretty obvious problem

 

[rocket18]

The Vic bias made it onto the Agenda Setters, not the per game but free kick differential.

5 Vic clubs with the best, 5 non-Vic clubs the worst.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

The Cats are nearly getting a 2 for 1 free kick ratio.

Helped in their game against us they had 2 known Cat supporting umpires, which was meant to prevent them from umpiring Cats games.

 

[Crow till I die]

Hey, we just got another AFL apology for a critical umpiring decision that went against us again...instead of one per year, we are getting 1 per week now

 

[Crow till I die]

The Cats are nearly getting a 2 for 1 free kick ratio.

Helped in their game against us they had 2 known Cat supporting umpires, which was meant to prevent them from umpiring Cats games.

It was awe inspiring watching Hawthorn get flattened by the umpires yesterday..its about as frequent as a blue moon...just a shame it was Geelong that got the benefit and not us for once