Preview Round 2: Lions v Carlton Blues

Round 2 - Lions v Carlton Blues


Date:

Thursday, 5 April

Time:

7.40pm local time

Venue:

Gabba

Ticket Info:

here

TV and Radio Coverage:

Live on FoxFooty from 7.30pm
Live on free to air (7 or 7mate) from 7.30pm


Social Media:

TBA

Last time they met:

Blues by 61 points @ Etihad

Betting Odds

Brisbane $3.50 Carlton $1.38

Weather Report

Fine. Sunny. Min 18 Max 28 (Bureau of Meteorology)

Preview by Quigley


Sorry kids but as per usual there are no film clips, sound tracks or other bells and whistles in my preview just lots of me waffling on. We aim to cater for all sorts on BF and this week it’s me appealing to those who like to sit down with a good novel.


Week 1 Form

Brisbane

I am probably not going to win a lot of friends on here but all things considered I was not overly impressed with our win against Melbourne. The Demons overall were very poor yet we really only dominated for one quarter. The Lions played down to the Demons’ level for much of the game and it really did look like two bottom 4 teams playing. We lost the first quarter by two goals, balanced things up by the half, smashed them by 5 goals in the third quarter and won the last by a goal only. Take that third quarter out of the equation and things look a lot more dire for us.

When we switched things on in the third though we looked much the better side and that is the kind of form we will need to show over four quarters to come away with the win against Carlton. Having the Sunshine Coast win against Carlton under our belt should also give us more confidence. The Carlton team this time will be stronger but the team that day did include quite a few Carlton stars and we did give them a belting.

Carlton

Having a look at the Carlton board you would think they had smashed the Tigers last week but again that was not the case. Carlton only managed to draw away from the Tigers in the last quarter after splitting the points for the first three quarters. Inaccuracy by Carlton certainly helped Richmond keep things close but the first three quarters were one apiece with a draw in the third. That is hardly a convincing win against a side most tip to again finish in the bottom half of the draw.

The Carlton supporters also have quickly forgotten the preseason where they did not win a game and in fact looked very ordinary for much of it. Plenty of excuses were made but the truth was that they were simply not good enough. Now the season has started it is expected that the players will be able to simply turn on the switch. It’s often not that easy to do and a bad performance in the NAB can often carry over into the start of the season proper.

The Richmond – Carlton game was a fast break style of match with both teams getting it and pumping it long and running onto it. The disposal skills from both sides was pretty average (although better than in the Lions – Melb match admittedly) particularly from the back half and midfield of the Blues. I didn’t come out of this match thinking that the Blues were a top 4 side.



Injuries and Potential Ins

Brisbane

Brown – will definitely miss. Big out for us and hopefully he will be back for next week.

Staker – out for the season

Zorko – has to be getting close to coming back but will do so through the reserves. Not on the injury list but no chance this week.

Drummond – played a bit of the last practice match for the reserves and then more of a full game in the reserves last weekend. If considered fit enough I would expect him to come back in probably for Lester who looked a little lost on the weekend. Stiller might be another who is looking over his shoulder in the longer term. His kicking would complement a backline with quietly some very good kicks in it.

Docherty – interrupted preseason and a late withdrawal from the reserves side last weekend. Even if the new interruption is nothing there is still no chance of him coming into the side this week.

Harwood – has been in great form in the reserves and would be making it very difficult to overlook him. In a game where clearances could be key, I would play him especially if Rockliff remains up forward. It would be great to see the two meathead Taswegians go head to head. I would give him a run for Sheldon who did well in limited minutes but I like the inclusion of Harwood for team balance and structure.


Carlton

The Blues have quite a few injuries last time I looked but I will concentrate only on the bigger names.

Jamison – missed all the preseason but played in the VFL on Saturday. Do the risk him on a short turn around playing a team who are using a FB to play FF in a game involving a flight to Brisbane? On the other side of the coin they may like to get some time into him before the Pies match the following week. 50/50 call I think.

Duigan – similar situation to Jamison in that he played in the VFL last weekend after having no preseason. Carlton supporters seem inclined to leave him for another week in the VFL but personally I would play him. He is the general at the back for the Blues and I would want him back there directing traffic and getting back up to AFL pace before the Pies clash.

Walker – seems like he may still be a couple of weeks away. Good for us that the Blues leading goal scorer from last year is out. He would be a hard match up for our current group although I think Harvey might be one to give it a go. Maybe in round 20.

Warnock – is the best tap ruckman at the Blues by a considerable margin. Apparently available but he didn’t play in the reserves so it looks like he won’t play against us. I think this is a bonus for us.

Waite – may come under scrutiny by the MRP for high contact. Given his record if he is charged he will miss at least a week.



The Rucks

I am doing the rucks first because I think this is an area where we have a definite advantage. Right from under 18s the big weakness of Kruezer has been in the ruck contest itself. He is great around the ground and solidish up forward but in the rucks he was definitely below what you would want from an elite ruck. In the NAB I thought it looked like he had improved in this area but against Richmond it was back to the norm for him. Against Richmond, Kruezer and Hampson were comprehensively beaten in the hit outs against the ruck powerhouse that is Ivan Maric and Tyrone Vickery (38 to 26). This has to be a concern for Carlton’s top 4 aspirations.

The Lions ruck tandem on the other hand looked bloody good against Jamar who was AA only a couple of years ago and is still a very good ruck technician. Leuenberger and Hudson complemented each other extremely well. Leuenberger is the finesse ruckman who is excellent around the grounds whilst Hudson gets less clean taps but nullifies the other ruck and really provides a physical presence in the middle, cleaning out the other ruck and opposition mids for our own mids to operate. Going forward I expect Longer to play the physical role (albeit he should be an elite tap ruck as well) and it was great to see how well those two styles worked together last week. For this week though Hudson and Leuenberger should be the two rucks to run out there.

Around the ground Leuenberger and Kruezer are both very strong whilst Hampson and Hudson are less so. I would say it would pretty much be a wash in this regards. Where the Carlton duo do enjoy a significant advantage is in their impact up forward. Hampson is a good mark of the ball and provides an excellent contest up forward which is where he plays most of his time. He is not a great kick for goal but seems to be improving slowly. Kruezer is somewhat overrated by the Carlton supporters in this regard but he has been effective in the NAB and week 1 so it’s hard to be critical. The Carlton combination picked up 3 goals between them in week 1 whilst the Brisbane duo only managed 1 goal between them.



Brisbane Forwards v Carlton Backs

This is the weaknesses of both sides but both stood up surprisingly well last weekend.

Without Brown the Lions are shoring up the forward unit with their B&F winning midfielder and their AA standard FB. It is a classic case of robbing Peter to pay Paul but it has worked against Carlton in the preseason and again against Melb last weekend so I am expecting to see it again this week. Against Melb the Lions kicked 17 goals 17 behinds and had a nice spread of goal kickers with guys rotating in from other parts of the ground or floating forward to kick them. We will be trying to do the same again. Rocky kicked 3 goals 5 behinds (missing a couple of sitters) and relied on smarts rather than physical attributes. He had some pretty reasonable Melb defenders on him and the Carlton defenders who struggled to contain him in the NAB will be same ones who get the job this week. Polks and Banfield also picked up 3 goals apiece although they were less convincing in doing so. Hanley drifting up from the wing got a couple and we would be hoping for a repeat there with a few like Redden and Rich chipping in more. Merrett is pretty solid on the lead although not a great mark. He provides an excellent contest though and creates opportunities for those around him.

Henderson did a solid job on Reiwoldt last week and if Jamison is not selected will get the job on Merrett. Merrett is not the mark that Reiwoldt is nor does he have the tricks, but he is quicker and more powerful which are two areas where Henderson is not strong. If Merrett can stick a couple of marks I think he could give Henderson problems. The other key for Carlton in defence is getting Yarran involved going the other way. He was very good against Richmond after being poor against the Lions a few weeks before. Whatever we did in Maroochydore I expect to be repeated in this game. Having someone with pace like Banfield or Beams sit on him and be able to stop him could really inhibit the Blues coming out of defence. Without Yarran the Blues defence has a lot of poor ball users and the Lions could get quite a few turnovers from poor kicks.

The Lions forward press was solid without being great against Melb and will need to be better against the Blues. The Blues seem to have changed their transition from defense approach this year compared to last. Whereas last year they used Scotland and Gibbs a lot in the midrange linking role this year they are going long first, second and third and are kicking it over the head of that player. This is fine if you have a lot of very good kicks but, apart from Yarran, the Blues defenders are decidedly poor in the kicking department. Russell, Bower and Laidler are just as likely to kick it to the Lions as their own teammates. Tuohy is better although he can be rushed into a poor kick. If we can get onto this, a quick rebound back into the 50 would give our understrength forward line more of a chance.



Brisbane Backs v Carlton Forwards

I am confident that most Carlton supporters would not realise that this is probably the strength of our side. This is probably more so with Merrett back there and Drummond in but even with them missing the unit is still more than capable of holding their own. Maguire can be exploited by a quick hard leading forward but the Blues do not really have any of those types. He will probably pick up Hampson whose height will worry him but who is not really a threat to kick a bag. If Waite plays, Patfull will get him and is a good match up for Waite being of fairly mobile and capable of following him up the ground. I have been pretty critical of Patfull over the preseason but he really did have one of his best games against Melb. If he can play similarly against Carlton he will give Waite, or whoever he is on, fits both offensively and defensively.

Thornton is somewhat underestimated by most but can score goals in bunches if he gets on a role. He has the smarts to trouble McKeever but McKeever has the height and athleticism to nullify Thornton if he doesn’t make rookie mistakes. If I was the coaching staff I would get McKeever to sit a little off Thornton and rely on his athleticism to shut him down. McKeever also involved himself very well going the other way against Melb and hopefully he continues to do so. He get criticized for his kicking a fair bit but really, although his style is not good, the results are very solid and he rarely misses targets. Walker being out really does hurt the Blues in that the Lions do not really have a natural match up for him apart from maybe Hanley. With Walker not there Hanley can play as a free man or up onto the wing where he can be a real weapon. Freeing up Hanley is really a key to the Lions winning games this year because of the outlet he provides and the damage he can do with the ball in hand.

Then there is the Carlton small brigade and here the addition of Golby really changes the whole dynamic. Betts and Garlett are for me the best small forward combo in the competition. They are both exceptionally agile and very quick and can score in bunches. Keeping them to a goal or two each would go a long way to winning this game. McGrath should go to Betts and if he is playing at his best is a good match up for Eddie. McGrath is quick and strong and although not as agile is no slouch in that department. We really do need him to be on his game though and not have one of his disinterested games. Golby will pick up Jeffy and although he may give away a little pace he again is in the vicinity in this respect. Golby and McGrath are also good runners and ball users coming out of defence and will make Betts and Garlett work hard defensively if they weren’t already doing so in the press.

Having Golby and McGrath there lets Hanley and Adcock play up the field and float back to help out without needing to be responsible for one of the really dangerous smalls. Similarly for Drummond if he plays. Stiller is also solid at the back and will pick up the likes of Gibbs if he moves into the forward line. The Lions have a lot of their better kicks coming out of defence and the Blues will need to shut thing down quickly as if they give the Lions space they can pick out a target. With that said I thought the running to space by the midfield last week was poor in the first half and if there is a repeat of that this week we are going to get hammered.



The Midfield

This is the area where Carlton are expected to have a significant advantage over the Lions. Through tanking for high draft picks and AFL authorised rorting of the salary cap the Blues have put together a midfield which is up there with the best in the competition. The trio of Judd, Murphy and Gibbs are formidable on their own but they have some very nice depth after that with Simpson and Scotland providing outside run, Robinson and Curnow the physical presence and Carrazo the tagging.

The Lions on the other hand have the evergreen Simon Black, a trio of young potential elites in Rich, Rockliff and Redden and then a whole stack of question marks. The Melb match did resolve a few of those question marks however. Adcock ran through the middle a lot providing a mature body and some good defensive and clearance work and Hanley and Polec provide some class on the wings and flanks. The surprise for me out of the Melb game was Beams. He played as a close checking midfielder and did a very good job whilst at the same time winning a fair bit of his own ball and lasering a couple of very nice passes. For someone I thought was being set for a forward role this season he was a great surprise.

Despite Black having his best game for ages last week I thought it was starkly evident that the torch has passed. The midfield looked like it revolved around Rich and the others set up around him. Rich looked more comfortable than he has previously in that leader role (I also noticed him being the one talking in the middle of one of the huddles as well) and much more confident. For me the move to the younger generation is well and truly due and now it’s up to the young guys to show what they have got.

The Carlton mids are very good in the clearances and this is something which we need to step up in. We beat Melb in this area but beating Carlton will be a significantly harder. Having an advantage in the ruck department will certainly help but we need to get in there and mix it up consistently. This is one of the big reasons I would like to see Harwood get a go given he is a specialist in this area. Carlton have the edge on paper in this area but hopefully we can close the gap especially with Judd and Robinson looking a little short of a gallop.

What we did well against Melb was shut them down when they got the ball. Melb seemed to hold the ball just a bit too long allowing up to close them down and make the tackle or at the least pressure the disposal. I am not sure whether this was a function of the Melb mids not being very good or us doing a nice job cutting off available passing options. Take it as a given that the Blues’ hands will be much faster this week and so we are going to need to be quicker again to stop the ball coming out.

As mentioned above an area where we need to improve a fair bit especially from the first half last week is our spread. Too often in the first half we lacked gut runners getting to space to provide a target although Hanley was an obvious exception. Rockliff is the guy in our team who is elite in this regard and having him up forward so much really took away from our effectiveness through the midfield. Personally I am hoping for a little less time in the forward line this week and a bit more in the midfield. Rocky is getting comparisons to Swan for his DT scoring ability and I am hoping that we split his mid / forward time much as Collingwood do for Swan or alternatively as Geelong do for Bartel.

I think we are improving in the midfield but I am not expecting us to get over the Carlton mids just yet. If we can battle to a narrow loss in the midfield however we can still be in the game with a chance to win it.



Coaching

I have long been a critic of Ratten and I still rate him as one of the poorer coaches in the AFL. What Carlton did very cleverly last year though was put some very strong assistants in place behind him. The Lions I think have also stepped up the quality of their assistants quite a lot. I think Harvey is a good assistant (not great) and I have really liked the appointments of Woey and Davis over the last two years to their respective positions. Both clubs I think have moved on from their head coaches being considered weak to a stage where both are well supported with people who can complement them and paper over any cracks that might be there.


Result

This is a hard one to back the Lions in. They are playing a highly regarded team coming off only 5 days rest as opposed to 7 for Carlton. We are playing at home but realistically I don’t think we are in a position to knock them off just yet. I think their midfield will get over ours over the course of the game and that will be decisive. Come round 20 I think we could easily knock them off with a few important guys back and some more development in our kids but I think round 2 is a bit early to expect that kind of result.

Carlton by 15 points.

Re: Can we challenge the Blues?

whatboutbob said:

Who do y'all think Carrots and Curnow will play on? I'd have thought Carrazzo may be a decent match-up on Rocky as he'd be comfortable following him all over the park, but I've seen Tuohy's name bandied about.

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Carrazo will wear Black like a glove you would think.

He shut down Cotchin when moved on him last week - Cotchin exploded when Carrots came off him in the third.

Curnow wont tag. As our extractor, I would assume you would have someone on him instead.

Armfield will also wear someone close you would suggest. Ferocious tackler, and has the ability to burn off slower opponents over the first 10m. May line up on Rich perhaps.

Gibbs will play loose man in defence.

Our midfield rotations will feature: Judd, Murphy, Scotland, Lucas, Simpson, Curnow, Carrazzo + Armfield (tagging), Kruezer. Warnock wont play.

Forward line of Hampson, Waite, Thornton, Robinson, Betts, Garlett. Walker wont be playing.

Back six should be Henderson, Yarran, Bower, Duigan, Laidler and Gibbs. Jamison wont play and Duigan will probably come in for Russell who was one of our worst last week.

Talent and class on every line.

Walkers the main out for us. I'd add Jamison as well, but with no Brown for you blokes, it evens out.

Sub likely to be one of Russell or Ellard.

Re: Can we challenge the Blues?

A lot of people (including the OP) are using the NAB cup result as a gauge for this match.

Here are some of the 'big' names that played in that match: Matthew Watson, Andrew Collins, Sam Rowe, Josh Bootsma, Patrick McCarthy, Marcus Davies, Rohan Kerr, Nick Heyne, Levi Casboult, Mitchell Carter, Aaron Joseph and Brock McLean.

Perhaps shows you the mindset we took into the NAB cup.

Missing in that match from our best 22 were Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Kade Simpson, Matthew Kruezer, Eddie Betts, Heath Scotland, Michael Jamison, Jeff Garlett, Andrew Carazzo, Robbie Warnock, Mich Robinson and Lachie Henderson.

Walker played but was carrying a niggling quad injury.

With a bunch of kids playing, I was not surprised to see your blokes run over the top of us in the second half (as dissapointing as some of the effort on display by our seconds was).

The same wont happen this week.

Re: Can we challenge the Blues?

Great write-up Quigley. I really like your style.

I agree on the inclusion of Rhino for the purpose of additional grunt. I would like to see him in to take Sheldon's place. Sammy's poor disposal stood out like a sore thumb at the commencement of the 4th quarter after he was subbed in. Until then the Lion's disposal was showing some traces of polish.

Great write up Quigley, "talent and class on every line"

Re: Can we challenge the Blues?

Malifice said:

Carrazo will wear Black like a glove you would think.

He shut down Cotchin when moved on him last week - Cotchin exploded when Carrots came off him in the third.

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yeah Black will get a tag like he has near every game for the past 10 years...Black is a much harder opponent to tag then cotchin because he uses footy smartness around stoppages to break free not speed

nice write up, and I see your point about devaluing the lions win due to our opponent in the hapless demons. It has been highlighted by many, but few fail to highlight the Blues were playing the perennial Rd 1 Rabbit in the headlights Tigers team. This week will say alot of each teams 2012 development & preparation

Fantastic write-up Quigs. :thumsbu:

Malifice said:

A lot of people (including the OP) are using the NAB cup result as a gauge for this match.

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Yep. I loved watching the Blues go scoreless in the second half of that match, but I was very much making hay while the sun shone. Having said that, I do take Quigley's point that it is difficult to flick a switch...and just as the Lions' Rd 1 opponent needs to be taken into account when judging their form, so too does Carlton's.

It'll be fascinating to see how this match pans out. If Carlton genuinely have their eyes on a top 4 berth, and we are as 'immature' (read: 'crap') as seemingly most Victorians think, then they *should* smash us. Meanwhile the the Lions and their supporters were obviously buoyed by their showing in an emotion-charged match on foreign territory against the insipid Dees.

Personally I think the truth is somewhere in between - while our team is very much still a work in progress, I have low expectations, but high hopes...go figure. Here's hoping, as POBT mentioned in the other thread, that this is step one to reclaiming the Gabba as a fortress.

Some random observations:

Black pretty much always smashes them. I can't see any reason why it would be any different this week, apart from a prolonged birthday hang-over.

Rich: Quigley described it well - the torch has been passed. I've never seen a game transformed so much merely by a player being on the field than when Rich entered the fray against Carlton B's. It was intangible (perhaps another way of saying 'beyond my comprehension')...but all of a sudden the clearances just went our way...even though Rich didn't necessarily get a heap of it. I saw something similar last weekend against the Dees. Rich is now just a presence.

Surprisingly Polks really got off the leash against the Dees, probably because they were more concerned by our other mids. Often left unchecked at stoppages he had the ball slammed down his throat by both Leuie and Huddo on several occasions and to his credit took full advantage, creating several goals. I doubt he'll get the same freedom to roam against the Blues, but for one who criticised his pre-season form, credit where it is due.

My guess is Banfield will go to Yarran in a defensive move.

Beams was a revelation as a defensive mid on Moloney. As Quigs mentioned, I had him flagged for a HFF, but here's hoping he can continue his form from last week. Seems to hit targets by hand and foot better than most. It was a pleasure to see the ball going to where the player was *going* to be, for a change, rather than where he *was*. It looks like someone's been paying close attention to the maestro in that regard.

McKeever: Woah Nelly was I surprised by his game against the Dees. Against the Carlton B's where Voss described him as 'rusty' (read: 'atrocious'), he read the flight of the ball and kicked like an inexperienced irishman, yet mere weeks later against the Dees he regularly out-pointed seasoned veterans. He still takes an age to get boot to ball, but he got it to where it needs to go and, fickle as I am, he's worked his way back into my best 22 on that performance.

Jed: Played on a rusty Judd in the pre-season and smashed him. Will we see the same match-up this week?

I'll be fascinated to see how our structures hold up. They've looked impressive at times (including against the Carlton B's) to this early point in the year, but ostensibly went to water against Essendon. Either way, hot damn I'm looking forward to the first gabba game of the year. Live footy...there's nothing like it.

Couldn't disagree more with the assessment of our win. Brisbane won four games last year, failing to run out games and blowing last term leads. Against Melbourne, whom we lost to twice last year, we got into a winning position and ran out the game, winning by 7 goals.

Whilst not bagging the umpiring, three of Melbourne's first half goals were gifted through soft free kicks (Magna and Trengove) and a 50m penalty. In every other aspect, except a patch in the first term, we dominated Melbourne in most components of the game. Melbourne were dreadful, but you can only beat the team you're drawn against each week.

Also don't agree with the assessment of only dominating for one qtr. We had 6 marks inside 50 in the 2nd term to Melbourne's 3. This resulted in 10 scoring shots to Melbourne's 5. The third term, which is the one you are saying we dominated, netted 11 scoring shots to 5... only one more scoring shot. Had we kicked straight, I suspect it wouldn't have just been "balanced out" at half time. Once we kicked the first goal of the last term, the game was clearly over.. so I wouldn't be reading too much into that... we still won the term.

Our quick hands in tight, numbers around the ball, ability to move the ball quickly and complete domination in the clearances was not at all like the bottom four side we were last year.

Also, to say "Take that third quarter out of the equation and things look a lot more dire for us." is a tad dramatic. Rarely do teams dominate for four qtrs - even the good ones. I doubt Port and Freo supporters are saying "Take out the first term, where we piled on 5 goals leads and we would have lost that match".

Very excited for this one. I think it will be won and lost in the midfield for sure. If we win the same amount of ball from the ruck and have clean fast hands through the middle, we are every chance to cause a massive upset. If, however, Carlton's stars are given the freedom by our guys to play their usual games, we'll lose the majority of clearances, and our defence will be put under a great deal of pressure. I'm a bit concerned that if the Blues do put quite a few goals on us in succession, Merrett may be moved back. Not sure this would be a horrible thing, but I feel like if it gets to that stage, it shows that we really aren't as advanced as a group as many would've hoped after the Dees game.

Would be surprised if Harwood isn't called up in someone's place. Not sure anyone else will enter the team, unless guys have pulled up sore from Saturday's match. I'd say the next few in line to be called up if that were the case, though, would probably be (depending, of course, on positional needs) Longer, Retzlaff, Green and Karnezis. Hoping none of them are needed, as our line up on the weekend was one I wouldn't want to tinker with too much.

Crisp and Bartlett will be regular senior players by the end of the season though, I believe.

Excited to see Beams again. I think he's been criminally underrated by many, myself included. Finally some midfield depth might be starting to show itself.

I only expect Rocky to go forward if we're greatly struggling to convert inside 50's to points. We'll need all the help in the midfield this week.

What I was probably most impressed with last week was just our defensive pressure all over the ground. We cramped Melbourne, gave them no room to move and limited their ability to play to any sort of game plan. Tackles stuck most times, and there were plenty of them. If we can put Carlton under the same amount of pressure, we may just be able to pull off an upset. That's what will be integral to winning, though.

Regardless, I head into this match with a sense of optimism. Saturday was no fluke - we've definitely improved over this off season. There were plays in that match that I'm not sure we could've pulled off in a training drill with no opposition at the same time last year. Things are on the way up, and only a complete collapse and thrashing (similar to the Sydney match last year) would change my mind on that.

Footy's back at the Gabba. Love it.

whatboutbob said:

Yep. I loved watching the Blues go scoreless in the second half of that match, but I was very much making hay while the sun shone. Having said that, I do take Quigley's point that it is difficult to flick a switch...and just as the Lions' Rd 1 opponent needs to be taken into account when judging their form, so too does Carlton's.

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Take into context the tipsters getting on the Tiges as a result of 'pre season form' come round 1.

Richmond beat Geelong and Hawthorn in the NAB cup. We lost to Port, Adelaide, North, Brisbane and the Dogs.

Come round 1 normality resumed.

No offence re last week, but Melbourne are shit. Arguably (heck almost certainly) the softest side (physically and mentally) going around in the AFL at the moment. I wouldnt be surprised to see one of GCS or WSYD beat them this year. Neeld has his work cut out with that mob.

It'll be fascinating to see how this match pans out. If Carlton genuinely have their eyes on a top 4 berth, and we are as 'immature' (read: 'crap') as seemingly most Victorians think, then they *should* smash us.

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We wont smash you at the 'Gabba. If the game was played down at the 'G I might have a different opinion.

I actually think it'll be a close match. I'll be tipping Carlton, but not with any real conviction.

Were still a bit flakey, Judd is down on form, and Walker, Jamison and Duigan are big outs.

Rich: Quigley described it well - the torch has been passed. I've never seen a game transformed so much merely by a player being on the field than when Rich entered the fray against Carlton B's. It was intangible (perhaps another way of saying 'beyond my comprehension')...but all of a sudden the clearances just went our way...even though Rich didn't necessarily get a heap of it. I saw something similar last weekend against the Dees. Rich is now just a presence.

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The beauty of Rich is when he gets it, its going a mile on that left peg of his. Hurn at WCE has a similar effect (and as a totally different player - and on that point, why does Shannon Hurn seemingly never have a direct opponent?)

My guess is Banfield will go to Yarran in a defensive move.

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Yarran needs to be stopped. His run and carry from the D50 is not to be underestimated. One of those blokes that can turn a match with a piece of inspirational play. Ballsy player with some exquisite skills, but still a little soft on his defensive side, and has shown that he cant handle a tag.

Of course it helps to have Bryce Gibbs down back as well. Shut down Yarran, and Gibbs has more time and space to release.

McKeever: Woah Nelly was I surprised by his game against the Dees. Against the Carlton B's where Voss described him as 'rusty' (read: 'atrocious'), he read the flight of the ball and kicked like an inexperienced irishman, yet mere weeks later against the Dees he regularly out-pointed seasoned veterans. He still takes an age to get boot to ball, but he got it to where it needs to go and, fickle as I am, he's worked his way back into my best 22 on that performance

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If there is one thing that Ratten is hot on (and we excell at) its pressure on the ball carrier. You wouldnt want to hesitate with Betts, Garlett, Robinson and co in the vicinity. We force a lot of turnovers with defensive pressure and HTB decisions with blokes caught with it.

Jed: Played on a rusty Judd in the pre-season and smashed him. Will we see the same match-up this week?

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Judd's been down since last year when he became a dad. The champ just hasnt been as damaging as he once was. He admitted recently that his 'running patterns' have been off.

As weird as this will sound, Juddy isnt your main threat next week.

Of course, we all know what he's capable when he clicks.

Malifice said:

No offence re last week, but Melbourne are shit.

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No offence taken. At all. I think we're all cognizant of that. It clearly clouds the answer to 'how good were we actually?' However when we've sucked in Melbourne for as long as we have, having frustratingly lost to an equally weak Dees team in previous years, a little hype around a win down there, particularly sans Brown, is, IMO, understandable.

Malifice said:

We wont smash you at the 'Gabba. If the game was played down at the 'G I might have a different opinion.

I actually think it'll be a close match. I'll be tipping Carlton, but not with any real conviction.

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I hope we don't get smashed, but I think there's still a small chance we will. With the number of kids we're playing, I think we'll fluctuate throughout the year...but here's hoping you catch us on the top of the wave.

Malifice said:

Were still a bit flakey, Judd is down on form, and Walker, Jamison and Duigan are big outs.

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True. It does make your defense look a lot less solid...but whether our new-found 'unpredictable forward line' takes advantage is TBD.

Malifice said:

The beauty of Rich is when he gets it, its going a mile on that left peg of his. Hurn at WCE has a similar effect (and as a totally different player - and on that point, why does Shannon Hurn seemingly never have a direct opponent?)

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True...but I think Rich's influence has recently gone beyond that. Perhaps it is a collective 'oh shit, Rich has got it...man up, while simultaneously swamping him' reaction that creates space elsewhere.

Malifice said:

Yarran needs to be stopped. His run and carry from the D50 is not to be underestimated. One of those blokes that can turn a match with a piece of inspirational play. Ballsy player with some exquisite skills, but still a little soft on his defensive side, and has shown that he cant handle a tag.

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Agreed.

Malifice said:

Of course it helps to have Bryce Gibbs down back as well. Shut down Yarran, and Gibbs has more time and space to release.

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True. Could run amok.

Malifice said:

If there is one thing that Ratten is hot on (and we excell at) its pressure on the ball carrier. You wouldnt want to hesitate with Betts, Garlett, Robinson and co in the vicinity. We force a lot of turnovers with defensive pressure and HTB decisions with blokes caught with it.

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Very good point. While the likes of Hanley and Adcock don't need a lot of time to get rid of it, McKeever could really struggle in that regard against the Blues.

Malifice said:

Judd's been down since last year when he became a dad. The champ just hasnt been as damaging as he once was. He admitted recently that his 'running patterns' have been off.

As weird as this will sound, Juddy isnt your main threat next week.

Of course, we all know what he's capable when he clicks.

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I read that article. Still expecting him to go 'bang' against us.

An insightful and balanced preview Quigley,
thoroughly enjoyed the read.

On another note, the area i'm in at the moment doesn't have television
so to speak and I was wondering how Golby faired last week. Feel free to
delete mods if this isn't the place for those questions.

Drummo would be a chance I think.

One thing that stood out for me in the game at the G was the level of noise made by the Lions fans. At times it sounded like we had as many there as the Dees did.

This Thursday night we need to be loud!

I stand by what I said earlier - the Lions WILL win, and they will win well.

patfullfankezz said:

I stand by what I said earlier - the Lions WILL win, and they will win well.

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Just because you believe it doesn't make it so. Minimum 5 goal win due to a stronger midfield with fresher legs.

I LOVE THE CFC said:

Just because you believe it doesn't make it so. Minimum 5 goal win due to a stronger midfield with fresher legs.

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Called a 40 point win last week when no one gave us a chance. Not saying the call will be right again, but stranger things have happened

Early season game are always hard to predict. NAB cup isn't great as a form guide, and sides can start slow. Blues are a class above us, whether or not they can perform like it in round 2 is another matter. Should be an interesting game, and i think we will show something against the blues.

Love the review as always Quigley, however i think it's a bit harsh picking on our 3rd quarter. Often in games sides don't play at top level the entire game, it's usually 1 qtr where someone gets on top that wins the game. Whilst the other quarters weren't as convincing, it's progress for us, as last year we never capitalised when we had momentum, and never put the foot on the throat so to speak. We would get a little ahead, put the cue in the rack and then get run over. We still won the last quarter, even if it wasn't by much. That for me was one of the most pleasing things.

I LOVE THE CFC said:

Just because you believe it doesn't make it so. Minimum 5 goal win due to a stronger midfield with fresher legs.

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Just because you believe it doesn't make it so.

The opening post has been updated with details re: broadcast coverage, betting odds and the weather report.

Great preview Quigley - very insightful as always.

Reckon the Blues will win but am looking forward to seeing how our boys go.

With our unpredictable forward line , am thinking the $3.20 might just tempt me (in case a miracle happens).

tate13 said:

Couldn't disagree more with the assessment of our win. Brisbane won four games last year, failing to run out games and blowing last term leads. Against Melbourne, whom we lost to twice last year, we got into a winning position and ran out the game, winning by 7 goals.

Whilst not bagging the umpiring, three of Melbourne's first half goals were gifted through soft free kicks (Magna and Trengove) and a 50m penalty. In every other aspect, except a patch in the first term, we dominated Melbourne in most components of the game. Melbourne were dreadful, but you can only beat the team you're drawn against each week.

Also don't agree with the assessment of only dominating for one qtr. We had 6 marks inside 50 in the 2nd term to Melbourne's 3. This resulted in 10 scoring shots to Melbourne's 5. The third term, which is the one you are saying we dominated, netted 11 scoring shots to 5... only one more scoring shot. Had we kicked straight, I suspect it wouldn't have just been "balanced out" at half time. Once we kicked the first goal of the last term, the game was clearly over.. so I wouldn't be reading too much into that... we still won the term.

Our quick hands in tight, numbers around the ball, ability to move the ball quickly and complete domination in the clearances was not at all like the bottom four side we were last year.

Also, to say "Take that third quarter out of the equation and things look a lot more dire for us." is a tad dramatic. Rarely do teams dominate for four qtrs - even the good ones. I doubt Port and Freo supporters are saying "Take out the first term, where we piled on 5 goals leads and we would have lost that match".

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Was going to say pretty much the same thing tate.

I'm not getting carried away with the win and there were a number of areas of improvement for the Lions but I think Quigley has undersold the win. I think it is arguable that we won 3 out of the 4 quarters. Yes, there was only one dominant quarter but that simply turns it from a tight win to a comfortable win.

However, if the point Quigs was making was that we can't simply repeat last week's performance in order to beat Carlton, then I think he is correct. Unless Carlton have a shocker, we need to start quicker, cut out the early error rate, worker harder to maintain our defensive structure and make the most of goal opportunities when they come.

Also, the element of surprise from our round 1 tactics is now gone. The big question for me is whether we change anything up in terms of structure or strategy. One change that I would consider making is putting a forward tag on Yarran. Beams was an outstanding success on ball and could get the job on Murphy. But perhaps it is worth sending him forward again with the instructions to hurt Yarran in attack? It would be a big ask for Beams to get up and play midfield again on a 5 day break.

On Rich, I think the focus on the footy world is on his left boot. I think it won't take much longer before people start to realise how clean, quick and accurate he is with his hands. I didn't think his kicking was particularly great v Melbourne. But he was first class in his work in finding a teammate by hand when the heat was on.

Well I for one am not going to underestimate the Lions especially at home, Carlton did look very rusty against the Tigers and a few of the guys looked underdone, not to mention poor kicking at goal. The Lions have some good kids and very good seniors a nice mix and seem to be coming along nicely, Rich will need to be watched he isnt quick but is tough and has a deadly boot on him, Black is a gun and another that needs to be tagged or he will kill us. I am tipping a upset the Lions by 20 only because the Blues werent convincing againt the Tigers.