Preview Faceoff: Round 9 vs Geelong

Thread started by Sentinel, obviously. Was a fail of merging posts by me - Igloo

VS

7.50pm, Friday, May 25, Etihad Stadium
Last time we met: Western Bulldogs 13.9.87 def by Geelong 23.10.148, Round 11 2011, Skilled Stadium

Possible Line-ups:
Western Bulldogs:
B: Murphy, Lake, Hargrave
HB: Cross, Austin, Veszpremi
C: Picken, Boyd, Liberatore
HF: Grant, Jones, Cooney
F: Higgins, Cordy, Giansiracusa
Foll: Minson, Griffen, Dahlhaus
I/C (from): Roughead, Sherman, Dickson, Wallis, Smith, Djerrkura, Skinner, Pearce

Geelong:
B: Scarlett, Lonergan, Hunt
HB: Enright, Taylor, Mackie
C: Kelly, Selwood, Bartel
HF: Johnson, Podsiadly, Motlop
F: Chapman, Hawkins, Stokes
Foll: West, Corey, Hunt
I/C (from): Stephenson, Duncan, Stringer, Guthrie, Smedts, Byrnes, Horlin-Smith, Christensen

Bulldogs Preview: We’re back to Friday night footy this week against the reigning premiers who have been a little out of touch of late. Coming off a 6 day break after the Darwin game, the Bulldogs will need to have recovered well so they don’t fall away early to Geelong’s fresh legs.

At the Selector's Table: Just the one forced change so far this week with Addison copping a week for his hit on Bennell. Whilst most of the team played well enough to keep their spots for Friday, Roughead should return after missing last week in addition to Cooney who will be an automatic selection. Clay Smith will likely be pushed out of the midfield, whilst Skinner, who looked lively when coming on late in the game, looks most likely to go from the forward line to make way for Roughy, although he may be left in to take the green vest and provide that X factor. Veszpremi and Djerrkura will fight for Addison’s spot, ahead of Pearce who looks to be close to a debut. Tom Hill also keeps putting his hand up at Williamstown, although it will be hard to find a spot if the coach continues to persevere with Jones. Prediction: In: Cooney, Roughead, Veszpremi Out: Addison (susp), Skinner, Smith

The Game: If the Bulldogs are to take the points, they will need to focus heavily on Geelong’s weaknesses this season, which have been in the ruck and getting the contested ball. The trio of Minson, Roughead and Cordy will be very important against West, who looks a little tired of late, and Stephenson, which hopefully will gives the Dogs an advantage in a heated battle in the midfield. Selwood has again had a very good season and is my choice for Picken, whilst Hunt will likely stay tight to Boyd unless the Cats want to stop the run and carry of Griffen. In close, sheer numbers in Boyd, Cross, Libba and Wallis should win the most of the ball over Selwood and Bartel, although Geelong have the advantage when it comes out. The midfield battle should be the highlight of the game, and could go either way. The real worry for the Bulldogs will be getting a big enough score on the board. Although it has come with greater ease in recent weeks, the Geelong backline containing Scarlett, Lonergan, Taylor and Enright is a powerful force and will present huge challenges. Jones, Cordy and Roughead will find it hard to make much of an impact with the high ball coming in, so quicker players like Dahlhaus, Cooney and Grant will really need to be there to pounce when opportunities arise. Tom Hawkins is a confidence player and has the ability to take some big marks when things are going well, although Lake has hit a rich vein of form and could null his influence. Austin will likely go to Podsiadly, whilst Murphy and Hargrave should run with Chapman and Johnson if they play forward.

Players to watch:
Will Minson: Geelong’s weakest area is their ruck, so look for a big game from the Bulldog’s number 1 ruckman.
Mark Austin: Up against J-Pod. Continues to improve each game, but this week is a big ask.
Matthew Boyd: Not much needs to be said here. If he can shake Hunt’s tag, we’re in with a chance.

Prediction: The Bulldogs will hopefully be able to replicate their form against Adelaide and Collingwood where they stuck with and even held the lead during the final quarter in both games against higher quality opposition. Geelong will be particularly hungry after the past fortnight’s losses and may again use that strength of theirs in finding a way to win if the game is close. Geelong by 8 points.

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Cats preview by MC Extra Dollop

Hi All, my preview from the Cats board. All the best for Friday.

4-5. The sight of that win-loss record would be galling to Geelong supporters, used to following a team entrenched in the top two on the ladder by this stage of proceedings. And while the Cats will enter the game on Friday night as warm favourites, the Dogs have recent form on their side and an ability to win the contested ball that will make Chris Scott wary.


Three losses in a row. You have to travel all the way back to 2006 for the last time it happened to the Cats in the AFL. It’s never even been seriously threatened, with the rare occasions in recent times that Geelong has found itself on a two-game losing streak being punctuated by a comfortable dispatching of an overmatched opponent to get the Cats back on track.




While the Bulldogs have the recent form on their side, a tougher-than-expected game against the Suns and a six day turnaround on the trip back from Darwin can be expected to impact their preparation for the Friday night battle. The Dogs have usually backed up their matches at TIO Stadium reasonably well, but that is usually with the benefit of eight days and it is a science experiment to give them just six.




LAST TIME: A walk in the park for the Cats at Skilled. Ottens booted five in a best-afield display, Stevie J was everywhere, Scarlett was at his taking-the-piss best in the backline and the old firm of Bartel and Corey racked them up with a minimum of fuss. For the Dogs, Gia kicked five, but despite Lake kicking three junk-time goals, the game may be best remembered as the most worrying ‘What the hell happened to that guy?’ display until Shane Warne stepped out in public a few months later. Needless to say, both have bounced back in a big way. Chances are the Cats will be missing 7-8 players from the team that played that game, less than twelve months ago: Cowan, Ling, Menzel, Ottens, Scarlett, Varcoe, Vardy, Wojcinski.




LAST TIME (AT THIS GROUND): Like the same walk in the park, only if Geelong had access to a golf buggy and the Bulldogs were senior citizens who’d left their asthma pumps at home. Famous for Tim Lane’s ‘days of dominance are over’ statement (quickly followed by fourteen unanswered Geelong goals). Stevie J was again rampant, Podsiadly was marking everything and finishing his good work, Enright did whatever he felt like and Ablett and Selwood combined for a lazy 74 possessions and five goals. Menzel made his debut and signalled that he had a big future at the Cattery. Again Giansiracusa was a major target up forward (three goals) for the Dogs and Boyd was their best with 35 disposals and eight clearances.




AT SELECTION: Scarlett and Gillies are the only injured Geelong players who are expected to come under consideration for Friday night from the injured players, with Scarlett currently rated a 50-50 chance to be recovered from his ankle injury, while Gillies’ knee complaint is being continually assessed through the week. It is a shame that Gillies is unlikely to push in at this stage (presuming both are fit), as the Bulldogs would be a good team for him to test his negating ability against, freeing up Harry Taylor to be a sweeper.


At VFL level, George Horlin-Smith is probably the only recognised AFL player who has done enough to put his name up, while Dawson Simpson’s return has been met with sighs of relief from the Geelong faithful, after watching the AFL side running on the smell of an oily rag for the best part of half a season. If anyone knows the whereabouts of Mitch Brown and Simon Hogan, please feel free to contact MC Extra Dollop, c/o the Geelong Football Club. Just want to know they’re ok.





Jesse Stringer was quite prominent after coming on as the sub, but the man he passed the vest to, Billie Smedts, was quiet and may be under pressure. Josh Hunt has been the hot topic on many AFL-commentators’ minds this week, after a couple of brain farts against Collingwood. But despite keen minds, such as Matthew ‘Essendon are no chance against Carlton and should rest half their side’ Lloyd and Shane ‘This is the first year I think Hawthorn can win the flag since 2008’ Crawford ruling a line through Hunt’s name, Chris Scott has come out in defence of his nuggety back pocket. If Scarlett or Gillies is to come back in, Scott will not want to fuel speculation that Hunt has been dropped, so expect Taylor, Lonergan, Enright or Mackie to get an RDO. This writer believes Orren ‘The Jinx’ Stephenson (relax, I’m joking) was better on the night than West, so if a ruckman is to be rested, it will be West. However it is likely that both will be retained to put the acid on a young and unproven Bulldogs tall man brigade, which has more question marks than The Riddler’s outfit.


For the Bulldogs, Cooney is expected to be fit and if so, he will automatically come in. Addison has been suspended, so he is an out. The query is whether the Bulldogs make any more changes to a winning lineup. Veszpremi and Djerrkura would be others who will be knocking on the door if they pull up from groin and quad injuries respectively, while Zeph Skinner may be the unfortunate one to make way, after not doing too much wrong as the sub. Djerrkura could play a role off half back if required (i.e. if Veszpremi is unavailable). Christian Howard is also an option off half back.




TEAMS

Western Bulldogs
B: Hargrave, Lake, Veszpremi
HB: Murphy, Austin, Sherman
C: Cross, Boyd, Liberatore
HF: Giansiracusa, Jones, Dahlhaus
F: Cooney, Cordy, Grant
R: Minson, Griffen, Picken
I/C: Dickson, Wallis, Higgins, Djerrkura


OUT: Addison, Skinner, Smith
IN: Cooney, Veszpremi, Djerrkura




Geelong
B: Enright, Lonergan, J. Hunt
HB: Mackie, Taylor, Guthrie
C: Duncan, Selwood, T. Hunt
HF: Chapman, Hawkins, Johnson
F: Stokes, Podsiadly, Motlop
R: Stephenson, Bartel, Kelly
I/C: West, Stringer, Horlin-Smith, Corey


OUT: Smedts
IN: Horlin-Smith




MATCH-UPS: In the Geelong backline, the likely assignments will be Taylor to Jones and Lonergan to Cordy/Minson. Enright will probably go to Dickson and Mackie to Grant. This leaves Josh Hunt and Cam Guthrie to debate over Gia/Higgins/Cooney, with both being ok match-ups for the Doggies’ small forwards. Gia needs significant attention; he has kicked eight goals in the past two games against Geelong, despite his side being obliterated. Of course, Scarlett is every chance to come in for someone suffering a phantom injury, in which case he can play on pretty much any of the above.





In the midfield, the first question is whom the taggers go to. From a Bulldogs’ perspective, the answer is obvious: Picken will be inside Selwood’s jumper from the first bounce, daring the rest of the Cats’ midfield to step up. It is not only a case of Corey, Bartel, Duncan and Chapman needing to lift their possession counts, but to hammer Picken fairly every chance they get, like the good old days when a tagger was locking on to Ablett. For Poodle, the options are plentiful. The obvious choice would probably be Griffen, though Hunt’s early-season form suggests his skill-set is currently best suited for the in-and-under types like Boyd and Cross. It says here that he goes to Boyd. Dahlhaus and the junior Libba and Wallis are young guns in good form and need to be treated with the respect afforded to the more well-known Bulldogs mids.





In Geelong’s attacking zone, it will be interesting to see which key forward Lake goes to. While Hawkins hasn’t continued his hot goalkicking form from early on in the season, he is still presenting and taking marks and he will require close attention. Lake should go to him early, with Austin to Podsiadly and see how this is progressing throughout the night. This time last year, we would have been reasonably happy with a four goal, ten mark, 22 possession night from our two big forwards, but it wasn’t so much the numbers from last Friday night that frustrated; it was the fact that they had already gone into their shells in the first quarter, handpassing off (often to stationary targets) inside the forward 50, rather than taking the responsibility of banging the goal home. One of Pods’ first ‘silence the critics’ games was when he pulled Lake’s pants down in the 100+ point demolition of 2010 at this venue and conditions could not be better suited for at least one of our big forwards to have a massive night. Hargrave and Murphy will probably go to Johnson and Chapman, respectively, when they are playing in the Cats’ forward line. Addison’s suspension robs them of a lock-down defender, which should give Stokes and Motlop plenty of opportunities to put some goals on the board.




VERDICT: It was a greatly improved Geelong last Friday; some silly little mistakes, sure, but you couldn’t question their aptitude for the contest. They’re going to need to improve to knock off the up-and-about Bulldogs, who would love nothing more than to get three wins on the trot, go to 5-4 and put their name up as a genuine September chance. With an undermanned backline (missing Morris, Markovic, Addison and perhaps Gilbee out of their first 22) and an inconsistent tall forward brigade, coming off a game in Darwin and a day less rest, I can’t see them getting over the line. Cats to get back on the winners list, with a confidence-boosting 38-point win.

Saw on one of the footy shows last night (on the couch i think) that Minson was equal 3rd in hitouts to advantage so far this year, so huge advantage in the ruck. He is doing much better than a lot of people thought and probably deserves some love.

The boys should be shown a replay of last years humiliation where those pricks were laughing at us (and with good reason).
Would so love to beat those arrogant mongrels and shove it right up them.

Mate you are with out doubt the MAN.....Great preview as always (greatly appreciated).. Lets hope we can bring our A game.

Good write up Sentinel, thanks.

Im backing us in to win by 4 goals. I've got a good feeling *


*my good feelings usually go horribly wrong, but let's hope not this time.

Igloo said:

Good write up Sentinel, thanks.

Im backing us in to win by 4 goals. I've got a good feeling *


*my good feelings usually go horribly wrong, but let's hope not this time.

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I hear you brother........ StKilda Rd3 I thought we were certainties

Dogs by 36 points

Cats by 14.

yes, as usual a great write up.

You have missed on Panos. Just have a feeling he will be close this week. I also doubt Pearce is in the mix as he didn't play again last week for Willi, or if he did I didn't spot him.

As discussed, coming off a 6 day break, a day less than the Cats and also coming back from Darwin. The Cats have lost their last 2, are getting belted in the media. They should be set for us, makes this a very tough game. Still, nothing to lose and I plan on enjoying the encounter and seeing how we go.

I am a bit worried little Dahlhaus has hit the wall. Seems to have lost his zip. Jones also is out of sorts and it was mentioned somewhere that maybe some ruck time could help him gain some confidence. It worked well for him last year.

We seem to lose a backman every week. This time it's Addison. It's a shame because just as these guys are finding their feet they are out. Veszpremi should be back. But it would be nice to have Wood out there in the form he was against the Pies.

I suspect we'll try and get Picko to run with Selwood, Lake will spend the night waxing lyrical with Tom Hawkins. Pods will be a worry, Austin will be undersized again.

It's hard to see how we can win this one. But I go to the games this year with a fair slice of confidence that we'll give it a shake, but we must take our chances, and we do need someone to clunk some marks in forward 50....Ayce, Jones, Roughy......Matt Panos anyone?

Dalhaus lost his zip, or just being given defensive attention?

stefoid said:

Dalhaus lost his zip, or just being given defensive attention?

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Stef, I think it's a bit of both. Teams must be getting onto him. But I have just noticed that he's labouring a bit. It’s been a couple of weeks now.

It's not a bad thing, or a surprise, he's a second year player and we need to be careful we don't overdo it with him. Other second year players have had breaks, including our own Liberatore.
And it doesn’t mean we have to rest him...we could sub him and bring him on later. I want him to play every game.....just love the guy. But I don’t want him breaking down or losing form due to just doing too much at such an early phase of his career.

Can we all make an extra effort to get to the game this week and bring someone else along with you.
Anybody you know tell them to go as well.

It will be very dissappointing seeing more Cats fans, no excuses!!

C'mon peeps lets all help out

Its been a while since we've pulled off a massive upset, so Im hoping this is the week since the Cats are no where near their peak form at the moment (beating the Kangas doesnt count as a massive upset considering the way they lost on the weekend)

Stevie Johnson is the one we have to stop. He's their most important player I reckon!

Iam amazed at the push for Panos, I don't think his performances at Williamstown rate anywhere near senior selection, his season to date has been quite disappointing.

black pup said:

Iam amazed at the push for Panos, I don't think his performances at Williamstown rate anywhere near senior selection, his season to date has been quite disappointing.

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Well to be fair BP it's not much of a push, it's really only me who thinks he's a remote chance.

I have said for a while now that I doubt he's a key position player. He's better placed higher up the ground, HFF or HBF.

I don't think he's been disappointing. I think he's about where I expected him. He's pretty good at the VFL level. His use is excellant and he slots most of his set shots. He just isn't a great contested mark as yet. His game on Sunday was pretty good.

Macca has given some other guys opportuntiy based on pretty average VFL form, Veszpremi, Sherman, Austin and Skinner were hardly setting the world on fire at that level before given their chance.

I'd like to see Panos at the level, we need to see what he brings to the table. I just have a feeling if given some chances he could surprise. If not then atleast we know

Panos is an intriguing side story in the overall season.
He was, IIRC, a Vic u18 rep who slipped right through the draft despite being rated highly. He then slipped nearly all the way through the rookie draft until we picked him up at about 48. Since then he hasn't been brilliant at VFL level but he has certainly shown enough promise to be elevated in the 2011 draft. You don't do that unless you think he will be playing games for you in the coming season. He has been emergency twice this year I think. Again that's a fair indication of how he is seen by MC.

The big knocks on him are that he's a touch short for a KPF (but same height as Fev) and that he's not quick over the ground. The pluses are that he has footy smarts, makes good decisions, can play forward or back, is a team player and is one of the best set shots in the club.

I think you've made your point BP that you are not a fan of his, but there are people at WO (not just TK) who rate him. We really have to find out at some stage what he's got to offer. If he stays fit and doesn't get a game this year you have to ask serious questions about the decision making going on at the club. Why even Mulligan got a couple of games last year after unexpectedly being elevated. At least we gave him a chance to show whether he had what it takes. Ditto Hooper.

As you would be aware BP, Peter German gave him a wrap last week as well, saying he kicked 3 goals and gave 2-3 assists. Not for the first time either from the reports i've read here. We could certainly use a bit of that in our senior forward line.

I am not sure whether Panos will carve out a long term career in the AFL but I am as certain as you can be with these things that his chance will come this year. It's just a matter of timing. Not if, but when.

Panos is a great example how some players get chances and other don't.

Imagine is he was giving the same chances as Grant. A lot of clubs didn't give Dickson a chance yet he does not look out of place in an AFL team.

Its pace and below the knees which is keeping him from a chance. I'm not sure he is good enough yet hope he gets at lease a chance.

It can be a fine line between getting a game and getting into the click of a club and not making it at all.

Mark West was an example of that. Spent two years dominating the two's as we had Libba, Dimma, Jose and Westy. Gets in finals and shows what he had. Unfortunately injuries cost him. Best 17 games ever for our club yet could have been played earlier.

I hope the Rugby game doesn't screw up the surface for Friday night.

dogwatch said:

Panos is an intriguing side story in the overall season.
He was, IIRC, a Vic u18 rep who slipped right through the draft despite being rated highly. He then slipped nearly all the way through the rookie draft until we picked him up at about 48. Since then he hasn't been brilliant at VFL level but he has certainly shown enough promise to be elevated in the 2011 draft. You don't do that unless you think he will be playing games for you in the coming season. He has been emergency twice this year I think. Again that's a fair indication of how he is seen by MC.

The big knocks on him are that he's a touch short for a KPF (but same height as Fev) and that he's not quick over the ground. The pluses are that he has footy smarts, makes good decisions, can play forward or back, is a team player and is one of the best set shots in the club.

I think you've made your point BP that you are not a fan of his, but there are people at WO (not just TK) who rate him. We really have to find out at some stage what he's got to offer. If he stays fit and doesn't get a game this year you have to ask serious questions about the decision making going on at the club. Why even Mulligan got a couple of games last year after unexpectedly being elevated. At least we gave him a chance to show whether he had what it takes. Ditto Hooper.

As you would be aware BP, Peter German gave him a wrap last week as well, saying he kicked 3 goals and gave 2-3 assists. Not for the first time either from the reports i've read here. We could certainly use a bit of that in our senior forward line.

I am not sure whether Panos will carve out a long term career in the AFL but I am as certain as you can be with these things that his chance will come this year. It's just a matter of timing. Not if, but when.

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One wrong fact in that he played for Norwood as a junior instead of as a Vic represenative but pretty much spot on. What do we have to lose from playing him? He can play at both ends, he's an intelligent player that reads the play well and can kick goals. And let's not forget his finals series last year, 11 goals from three games and was best on ground for Williamstown in the grand final with four.

This week he kicked 3.1 from 16 touches and had a few assists as well. A player that kicks goals and can set them up is something that we need at AFL level at the moment.

Unotuchable said:

This week he kicked 3.1 from 16 touches and had a few assists as well. A player that kicks goals and can set them up is something that we need at AFL level at the moment.

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For those more in the know then me, would Panos' forward role at Williamstown compare to Jarrad Grant in his first few years in the VFL (with a few differences in size, speed)? I'm not yet sold on him as our solution yet, I could see him being a player stuck between a very decent VFL player but one who might struggle to make much of an impact at AFL level. I look forward to being proven wrong though.

As for this weeks game, the more I think about it the more I think its going to be extremely similar to the Collingwood match. We may be able to outplay them for periods without having much impact on the scoreboard, whilst the Cats have the players to kick many 'cheap' goals (a great ability to have), where they will scoop up loose balls deep in the forward line etc and punish us for any mistakes we make in defence. Hopefully we can limit this and stick with them, should be a great spectacle if we do.

On Panos, I made this following point last year some time. Playing in the reserves, and playing in the seniors, can be different on so many levels beside form. regardless of how a player plays in the reserves, put into the seniors, he has a higher quality structure around him, and has AFL standard players giving him the ball, and playing next to. Even though our disposal is still fairly ordinary some weeks, I still believe you have to try players at AFL to see what they do. You can't just judge players in the VFL alone. Josh Hill was stinking it up at Williamstown last year, including the infamous grand final where we all know he was crap.

Now, he is playing every game for the top team in the AFL. You just can't gauge a player before you try him af AFL level. If Panos gets played for a few weeks, and we find he can't mix it, then we get rid of him. Simple.

A lot of confidence on the Geelong board just because they had one good quarter against the pies.

cosmicr said:

A lot of confidence on the Geelong board just because they had one good quarter against the pies.

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There is a mix, I'd ignore footsore's opinion, his own supporters have disowned him

Ant_ said:

There is a mix, I'd ignore footsore's opinion, his own supporters have disowned him

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Agreed - they are under no illusions about their team, much like the majority of us on here are about ours.

Unotuchable said:

One wrong fact in that he played for Norwood as a junior instead of as a Vic represenative but pretty much spot on. What do we have to lose from playing him? He can play at both ends, he's an intelligent player that reads the play well and can kick goals. And let's not forget his finals series last year, 11 goals from three games and was best on ground for Williamstown in the grand final with four.

This week he kicked 3.1 from 16 touches and had a few assists as well. A player that kicks goals and can set them up is something that we need at AFL level at the moment.

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If Panos was to play for the dogs, he would get probably 2-3 scoring shots per game. With his accuracy, he would kick either 2 or 3 of these. On a good day, he will kick 4 to 5.

At the moment, Jones (who is only a couple of years younger) is getting about 2-3 scoring shots a game. When he doesn't try to offload, he gets about 1-2 of these. On a good day, he is only getting 2-3.

The difference is clear. 40-50 goals a year to 20-30 goals a year... Yet we seem to all just consider Panos' short comings. A bit like Podsiadly's shortcomings, which back in the Werribee were much publicised on these fora.