Player Watch #1: Nick Vlastuin

[tunksy]

Yeah for sure. It would be nice if small forwards are actually allowed to play attacking footy under the new coach or if their priority will still be guarding space and pressuring....

Kai Lohmann could be a good small forward target....

Spot on

 

[Grrr]

Yeah for sure. It would be nice if small forwards are actually allowed to play attacking footy under the new coach or if their priority will still be guarding space and pressuring....

Kai Lohmann could be a good small forward target....

Cumberland is the perfect example. He can do things others can't, creates goals from nothing. Plays tall and small. He has been marked way to hard. Small forwards don't fire every week.

 

[db26]

The perfect trade bait for me.

 

[Dr Tigris]

That’s what he has predominantly played as but I think he has what it takes to also play as a great forward ….. I think if we invest a full preseason in him as a forward he will really shine in 2024

Reckon we already have enough small and medium forwards. Leave Vlas where he is best. My opinion only

 

[Hoos]

Reckon we already have enough small and medium forwards. Leave Vlas where he is best. My opinion only

Yep. Quality intercept defenders are hard to find so I'd be leaving him where he is. Particularly with the huge drop off in Grimes' form over the last 2 seasons.

 

[Del65166]

Yep. Quality intercept defenders are hard to find so I'd be leaving him where he is. Particularly with the huge drop off in Grimes' form over the last 2 seasons.

Grimes had a great 21. In 22 we lose Astbury bring in Tarrant, Gibcus. Balta, and play Miller in the backline. Rioli for Short. Broad took quite a few marks in 22.

Grimes & Broad used to play on smalls and talls but Grimes role disappeared to the point where it was a shame he re signed not resigned.

 

[Ceehook]

I felt in the back part of the season Nick seemed to calm down on the silly stuff and play more like what you'd expect from a senior player

fingers crossed he takes that into next season , Young improved as the season went on
if the players start believing the back 6/7 are strong , they play better , it feeds on itself

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Time for a bit of Vlastuin love.

Tom Stewart has played 7 seasons of AFL, all prime-aged years, and has 5 x AA selections. AA selectors obviously apply subjective judgements to who they select.

Nick Vlastuin

1

Nick Vlastuin

Age

32

Ht

187cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.7

4star

MG

269.3

4star

D

13.3

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.3

3star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.8

3star

MG

257.6

4star

D

20.2

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

8.8

5star

M

7.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

has never been selected in the AA team......

Yet we move to the more objective player ratings.

Vlastuin career average rating is 10.13. This is above Stewart's career average of 9.37. But this includes Vlastuin playing in his developmental years 18-22yo, where Stewart never played AFL at that time of his life while his body was still developing.

Vlastuin's career rating from the age Stewart was when he entered the scene is about 11 v Stewart about 9.4.

They play quite similar roles. Stewart has rated above 12.0 across a season once. Vlastuin has done that twice. Stewart was selected in 2019 with an average player rating of 6.4. Vlastuin's lowest average rating EVER including his very first season at 18yo is 8.07.

Stewart was also selected in 2018 with an average rating of 9.2. Vlastuin has rated above this figure in 9 separate seasons.

This does pretty clearly demonstrate how biased the AA process is towards Geelong players and against Richmond players.

But how good are these guys when put to the test in finals?

Vlastuin finals player ratings through his prime years:

2022 15.6

2020 14.5 8.4 9.9 0.2(ko'd by Dangerfield in early minutes)

2019 9.8 10.5 11.1

2018 10.9 13.3

2017 11.1 6.4 10.2

Ignoring the 2020 GF for obvious reasons, Vlastuin averages a player rating of 11 across his 12 prime aged finals. Best of 15.6. Worst of 6.4. Median 10.7.




Stewart in his prime-aged finals:

2022 14.9 9.0 11.1

2021 -

2020 4.3 9.3 7.3 8.4

2019 15.6 6.6 8.8

2018 3.9

2017 1.0 4.0 4.4

Stewart averages a player rating of 7.8 across 14 prime aged finals. best of 15.6, worst of 1.0. Median 7.9.


So Vlastuin has proven a lot stronger finals performer.

Yet Vlastuin has been judged unworthy of even 1 AA selection, and Stewart is seemingly the most AA selectable player in history. Wtf is going on here?

Vlastuin has been a magnificently consistent and high performing player for us. And a tremendous finals performer. We should really appreciate that.

 

[beema limapep]

Trade to Geelong for picks 25 and 43

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Trade to Geelong for picks 25 and 43

Why?

 

[tiger_tough]

Time for a bit of Vlastuin love.

Tom Stewart has played 7 seasons of AFL, all prime-aged years, and has 5 x AA selections. AA selectors obviously apply subjective judgements to who they select.

Nick Vlastuin has never been selected in the AA team......

Yet we move to the more objective player ratings.

Vlastuin career average rating is 10.13. This is above Stewart's career average of 9.37. But this includes Vlastuin playing in his developmental years 18-22yo, where Stewart never played AFL at that time of his life while his body was still developing.

Vlastuin's career rating from the age Stewart was when he entered the scene is about 11 v Stewart about 9.4.

They play quite similar roles. Stewart has rated above 12.0 across a season once. Vlastuin has done that twice. Stewart was selected in 2019 with an average player rating of 6.4. Vlastuin's lowest average rating EVER including his very first season at 18yo is 8.07.

Stewart was also selected in 2018 with an average rating of 9.2. Vlastuin has rated above this figure in 9 separate seasons.

This does pretty clearly demonstrate how biased the AA process is towards Geelong players and against Richmond players.

But how good are these guys when put to the test in finals?

Vlastuin finals player ratings through his prime years:

2022 15.6

2020 14.5 8.4 9.9 0.2(ko'd by Dangerfield in early minutes)

2019 9.8 10.5 11.1

2018 10.9 13.3

2017 11.1 6.4 10.2

Ignoring the 2020 GF for obvious reasons, Vlastuin averages a player rating of 11 across his 12 prime aged finals. Best of 15.6. Worst of 6.4. Median 10.7.




Stewart in his prime-aged finals:

2022 14.9 9.0 11.1

2021 -

2020 4.3 9.3 7.3 8.4

2019 15.6 6.6 8.8

2018 3.9

2017 1.0 4.0 4.4

Stewart averages a player rating of 7.8 across 14 prime aged finals. best of 15.6, worst of 1.0. Median 7.9.


So Vlastuin has proven a lot stronger finals performer.

Yet Vlastuin has been judged unworthy of even 1 AA selection, and Stewart is seemingly the most AA selectable player in history. Wtf is going on here?

Vlastuin has been a magnificently consistent and high performing player for us. And a tremendous finals performer. We should really appreciate that.

Stewart's over hyped and Valstuin under rated, but Stewart is still slightly better IMO.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Stewart's over hyped and Valstuin under rated, but Stewart is still slightly better IMO.

Not judging by Champion Data's objective ratings system that considers every act a player does each game. Where you go through all of their key indicators, there is very little between them across their respective careers, but if you take Vlastuin just from the age when Stewart started playing in the AFL, Vlastuin probably goes ahead of him. Bar the fact Stewart has 5 x AA selections in 7 seasons and Vlastuin has no AA selections and only once in the squad, no fair person would have any real reason to say Stewart is a better player. So the 5 v 0 AA selections are laughably wrong. And we can see from their finals ratings I listed who has been the better player when that particular gun is held to their head. It is Vlastuin by a very clear margin.

Stewart is a very good player by the way, but not better than Vlastuin overall.

 

[sante]

Stewart is better than Vlastuin. Don’t need stats to tell you that. But who cares, Nick is a great player.

 

[tiger_tough]

Not judging by Champion Data's objective ratings system that considers every act a player does each game. Where you go through all of their key indicators, there is very little between them across their respective careers, but if you take Vlastuin just from the age when Stewart started playing in the AFL, Vlastuin probably goes ahead of him. Bar the fact Stewart has 5 x AA selections in 7 seasons and Vlastuin has no AA selections and only once in the squad, no fair person would have any real reason to say Stewart is a better player. So the 5 v 0 AA selections are laughably wrong. And we can see from their finals ratings I listed who has been the better player when that particular gun is held to their head. It is Vlastuin by a very clear margin.

Stewart is a very good player by the way, but not better than Vlastuin overall.

The Champion Data ratings are garbage.

 

[Lacustrus]

Time for a bit of Vlastuin love.

Tom Stewart has played 7 seasons of AFL, all prime-aged years, and has 5 x AA selections. AA selectors obviously apply subjective judgements to who they select.

Nick Vlastuin has never been selected in the AA team......

Yet we move to the more objective player ratings.

Vlastuin career average rating is 10.13. This is above Stewart's career average of 9.37. But this includes Vlastuin playing in his developmental years 18-22yo, where Stewart never played AFL at that time of his life while his body was still developing.

Vlastuin's career rating from the age Stewart was when he entered the scene is about 11 v Stewart about 9.4.

They play quite similar roles. Stewart has rated above 12.0 across a season once. Vlastuin has done that twice. Stewart was selected in 2019 with an average player rating of 6.4. Vlastuin's lowest average rating EVER including his very first season at 18yo is 8.07.

Stewart was also selected in 2018 with an average rating of 9.2. Vlastuin has rated above this figure in 9 separate seasons.

This does pretty clearly demonstrate how biased the AA process is towards Geelong players and against Richmond players.

But how good are these guys when put to the test in finals?

Vlastuin finals player ratings through his prime years:

2022 15.6

2020 14.5 8.4 9.9 0.2(ko'd by Dangerfield in early minutes)

2019 9.8 10.5 11.1

2018 10.9 13.3

2017 11.1 6.4 10.2

Ignoring the 2020 GF for obvious reasons, Vlastuin averages a player rating of 11 across his 12 prime aged finals. Best of 15.6. Worst of 6.4. Median 10.7.




Stewart in his prime-aged finals:

2022 14.9 9.0 11.1

2021 -

2020 4.3 9.3 7.3 8.4

2019 15.6 6.6 8.8

2018 3.9

2017 1.0 4.0 4.4

Stewart averages a player rating of 7.8 across 14 prime aged finals. best of 15.6, worst of 1.0. Median 7.9.


So Vlastuin has proven a lot stronger finals performer.

Yet Vlastuin has been judged unworthy of even 1 AA selection, and Stewart is seemingly the most AA selectable player in history. Wtf is going on here?

Vlastuin has been a magnificently consistent and high performing player for us. And a tremendous finals performer. We should really appreciate that.

I also think the joke of stadium that is Cardinia park makes Stewart look better than he actually is . It funnels the incoming ball to the intercepting backman like no other ground

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The Champion Data ratings are garbage.

All ratings systems will have flaws. AA selections are one of the most flawed. CD ratings are likely to be the least flawed imo. This is because they are objective, and don't miss things you would miss with any combination of relying on your eyes or what commentators say.

CD ratings in 2023(10 games or more, average player rating):

Top 10 mids:

1 Bontempelli
2 Liberatore
3 Butters
4 Petracca
5 Anderson
6 Oliver
7 Merrett
8 Uniacke
9 Gulden
10 N Daicos

Top 10 forwards who played vast majority forward:

1 Greene
2 Curnow
3 Walker
4 Martin
5 Rankine
6 Daniels
7 Heeney
8 Daniher
9 Hawkins
10 Dylan Moore

Top 10 defenders:

1 Sinclair
2 Houston
3 Sicily
4 Blakey
5 Darcy Moore
6 Sam Taylor
7 Andrews
8 Short
9 Barrass
10 Vlastuin

Sometimes there are blurred lines around the roles of some of these players, and you could break it down further to key forwards/defenders and medium forwards/defenders and so on. You could argue around a player here or there or what position players should be in the order, but I watched a fair bit of footy this season and those ratings seem very credible to me.

Could you come up with a better system of rating players?

 

[tiger_tough]

All ratings systems will have flaws. AA selections are one of the most flawed. CD ratings are likely to be the least flawed imo. This is because they are objective, and don't miss things you would miss with any combination of relying on your eyes or what commentators say.

CD ratings in 2023(10 games or more, average player rating):

Top 10 mids:

1 Bontempelli
2 Liberatore
3 Butters
4 Petracca
5 Anderson
6 Oliver
7 Merrett
8 Uniacke
9 Gulden
10 N Daicos

Top 10 forwards who played vast majority forward:

1 Greene
2 Curnow
3 Walker
4 Martin
5 Rankine
6 Daniels
7 Heeney
8 Daniher
9 Hawkins
10 Dylan Moore

Top 10 defenders:

1 Sinclair
2 Houston
3 Sicily
4 Blakey
5 Darcy Moore
6 Sam Taylor
7 Andrews
8 Short
9 Barrass
10 Vlastuin

Sometimes there are blurred lines around the roles of some of these players, and you could break it down further to key forwards/defenders and medium forwards/defenders and so on. You could argue around a player here or there or what position players should be in the order, but I watched a fair bit of footy this season and those ratings seem very credible to me.

Could you come up with a better system of rating players?

Yeah, the eye test.

 

[Morro]

If footy was played on a computer than these ratings would be great.

Vlas is great but Stewart significantly better.

 

[RoaringTiger]

Stewart is better than Vlastuin. Don’t need stats to tell you that. But who cares, Nick is a great player.

Leadership wins flags and Vlaustin has that in spades compared to the sniper and that's why we won 3 and they won only 1. I would take vlaustin every single day of the week if I wanted to build a team to win a flag. I'd take Stewart if I wanted someone to hit people behind play and to wear a meaningless jacket once a year.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I also think the joke of stadium that is Cardinia park makes Stewart look better than he actually is . It funnels the incoming ball to the intercepting backman like no other ground

Let's have a look at Stewart at Wingless Paddock in 2023 versus other venues.

rd 6 player rating 6.9

rd 8 7.4

rd 11 16.5

rd 15 7.4

rd 17 15.1

rd 18 15.4

rd 20 7.5

rd 21 14.9

rd 24 19.5

9 games at Wingless total 110.6 ratings/9 = 12.3 average at KP.

His average player rating across the whole season was 11.79. So his average in the 14 games at other venues is around 11.5.

So this somewhat supports what you say here.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

If footy was played on a computer than these ratings would be great.

Vlas is great but Stewart significantly better.

In what way is Stewart significantly better than Vlastuin?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yeah, the eye test.

I bet professionally, these days on cricket only.

If I bet by eye alone I can probably make some profit if I am at my best. If I bet by stats alone I will likely also make some profit, though this would be less reliant on how sharp I was. If I combine the 2 methods I am confident of making a solid profit consistently.

And you have to remember cricket is a sport where the eye can capture a far greater proportion of the action than it can in football.

If it comes to your ball watching eyes or mine on one hand versus CD with a team of people watching every player in every passage of play on the other hand, and them keeping count of everything, and you and I forgetting most of what we see....our so called "eye test" has no chance to outmatch CD's ratings.

 

[guruisatiger]

In what way is Stewart significantly better than Vlastuin?

Averages more marks 7 to 5.7
Averages more disposals 21.1 to 16.8

 

[Morro]

In what way is Stewart significantly better than Vlastuin?

The playing part

 

[beema limapep]

Why?

I'll give you 10 good reasons.

1. In need of picks for list generation.
2. Already have 10 to 12 senior core players so trading won't effect the group.
3. List balance. We have sufficient half backs and intercept defenders. But are in need of midfielders and forwards.
4. He will command decent picks in return.
5. He has a home in the Geelong area.
6. Geelong love mature recruits.
7. He turns 30 next year. Only 2 to 3 years left or less. Nailing 1 of the two picks would get us a player for the next 10 years. We would be ahead.
8. Form is hot and cold.
9. Need to get games into more kids.
10. Because I said so.