#1 pick worth

[BlueMaster1]

What would you give up for the #1 draft pick?

 

[saintkildaman]

A grader, + fringe/swap of first round.

So from St Kilda maybe something like-
Dal Santo + Ray + 2nd round
or
Dal Santon + First round (pick 5 or below probably)

 

[BlueMaster1]

A grader, + fringe/swap of first round.

So from St Kilda maybe something like-
Dal Santo + Ray + 2nd round
or
Dal Santon + First round (pick 5 or below probably)

Dal santo for pick 5 at the most

 

[themightydoggies]

Cooney+Higgins??

 

[BlueMaster1]

Age is problem there

 

[TigerTime88]

How is Kevin Sheedy going on about giving pick 1,2,3 for Nic Nat? Would prefer 3 out and out stars than one...that is what you will get with a top 3 pick.

 

[Sin City]

How is Kevin Sheedy going on about giving pick 1,2,3 for Nic Nat? Would prefer 3 out and out stars than one...that is what you will get with a top 3 pick.

Thought he meant their top three picks this year, as in first round pick, activated compensation pick and second round pick.

 

[TigerTime88]

Thought he meant their top three picks this year, as in first round pick, activated compensation pick and second round pick.

Oh ok well that is fair enough then.

I thought he was saying 1,2,3 in the draft. Fair enough deal then.

 

[Calcium Man]

Trent Croad

 

[aussierulesrules]

They just said on the news that Sheedy said GWS would be or should be prepared to offer "all their picks in the draft" for Natanui.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Gaff + 2nd round if there is an explosive mid that could go no1

 

[Offsider]

There are only a few players who would be worth the number 1 pick imo, they include, Trent Cotchin, Harley Bennell, Jeremy Cameron, Nick Naitanui, Jager O'Meara. The chance at having the first pick of all the players, and having him on your list for potentially 10+ years is not one clubs would give up lightly.

 

[Wallaby]

Lets look at the No 1s since the turn of the century.

2000 - Riewoldt - Champ
2001 - Hodge - Champ
2002 - Goddard - pretty good
2003 - Cooney - Bloody good (injuries)
2004 - Deledio - Bloody Good
2005 - Murphy - Bloody good
2006 - Gibbs - pretty good (gee, he could be really good)
2007 - Kreuzer - should become bloody good
2008 - Watts - aaaaargh
2009 - Scully - he'll be ok - hard to tell at GWS.
2010 - Swallow - bloody good
2011,2012 - too young.

The fact is with the draft knowledge these days, with the No 1 pick, you can pretty much guarantee yourself a top player - for 10-15 years. Sure, they might not be the absolute best players in the draft (Selwood, Franklin, Judd all had question marks re injury or attitude) - but you get first crack at a Sure Thing.

I reckon I would trade anyone over the age of 28, no matter how good (yes, that includes Ablett) - and almost all players over the age of 25 - maybe not the top 15-20 in the league. If the team holding the number 1 pick is stupid enough, I would be happy to trade anything up to 3-4 good players. I can replace them via free agency.

In terms of draft picks for draft picks - I reckon the No 1 is worth at least 2 other top 10 picks, or 3 10-20 picks. Actually no - If I held the No 1, I would not trade for anything less then one other pick from 2-5, plus one pick from 6-10.

 

[sexyhunk]

Gaff + 2nd round if there is an explosive mid that could go no1

why would wouldnt the other team just take the explosive mid than Gaff and a spculative pick in the 20s or 30s...

 

[aussierulesrules]

I think if GWS want Luenberger he will probably cost them the no.1 pick, with maybe some other picks swapped to bring it into balance.

 

[the_slurpee_man]

Cooney+Higgins??

lol..

 

[the_slurpee_man]

There are only a few players who would be worth the number 1 pick imo, they include, Trent Cotchin, Harley Bennell, Jeremy Cameron, Nick Naitanui, Jager O'Meara. The chance at having the first pick of all the players, and having him on your list for potentially 10+ years is not one clubs would give up lightly.

This.. 100%!

 

[GrandBlue]

There are only a few players who would be worth the number 1 pick imo, they include, Trent Cotchin, Harley Bennell, Jeremy Cameron, Nick Naitanui, Jager O'Meara. The chance at having the first pick of all the players, and having him on your list for potentially 10+ years is not one clubs would give up lightly.

Agree completely. Add Dangerfield to that list.

 

[eastfreo75]

I think if GWS want Luenberger he will probably cost them the no.1 pick, with maybe some other picks swapped to bring it into balance.

GWS will have the first pick in the preseason draft to use as a gun to the head of the lions. Lions will need to take what they can get. GWS won't need to trade with them at all.

 

[Tulip]

Since when is Swallow 'bloody good'?

Been the most disappointing GC midfielder so far.

Bennell, O'Meara, Prestia and more all better.

 

[dlanod]

GWS will have the first pick in the preseason draft to use as a gun to the head of the lions. Lions will need to take what they can get. GWS won't need to trade with them at all.

Yeah, if Leuenberger leaves (very unlikely at this stage) you'd think the Lions would end up with GWS's midround pick and maybe a young talent outside the Giants' best 22 at most precisely because of that PSD threat. Most clubs don't like to completely dick over others to keep good trading relationships alive, but pick 1 wouldn't be on the table for him.

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

Since when is Swallow 'bloody good'?

Been the most disappointing GC midfielder so far.

Bennell, O'Meara, Prestia and more all better.

Hey? Has been crippled by injuries since his first season and in his first season he accumulated stats similar to Judds first year. He is playing HBF at the moment and is doing a superb job of it, rebounds well and locks down whoever he plays on.

 

[The Bomb]

I would not give up Daniher for a #1 draft pick, funny as that may sound. It would be hard to decide what to give up to get a Naitanui or O'Meara.
probably will require 2 top 5 draft picks to recieve such a player.

 

[JollyRoger]

haha people place too much value on the the #1 pick. How many #1 picks have consistently been in the top 10 players for a number of years? Maybe 4-5 from the list above, or 40%. So at the end of the day it's still a gamble on a 17 yo player becoming elite (which he should if he's the best player of the year by careers end). As are all of the top 5 picks.

Even harder to predict how a gun junior KPP will develop e.g. Riewoldt vs Watts, but often that's what clubs at the bottom need the most. So I'd argue that someone like Jeremy Cameron or Nic Nat or Walker are worth a fair bit more than the #1 pick because they're proving their potential to become elite. So moving down the ladder of gun young KPP's you're looking at more Leuenberger, Carlisle for straight swap imo.

 

[GrandBlue]

haha people place too much value on the the #1 pick. How many #1 picks have consistently been in the top 10 players for a number of years? Maybe 4-5 from the list above, or 40%. So at the end of the day it's still a gamble on a 17 yo player becoming elite (which he should if he's the best player of the year by careers end). As are all of the top 5 picks.

Even harder to predict how a gun junior KPP will develop e.g. Riewoldt vs Watts, but often that's what clubs at the bottom need the most. So I'd argue that someone like Jeremy Cameron or Nic Nat or Walker are worth a fair bit more than the #1 pick because they're proving their potential to become elite. So moving down the ladder of gun young KPP's you're looking at more Leuenberger, Carlisle for straight swap imo.

Pick #1 doesn't have a locked success rate. The reason it's so valuable is because it gives whichever club has it the priority in choosing whoever they want & is guaranteed to be there. IIRC, West Coast were demanding pick 1 from Carlton in the Judd trade, but Carlton were dead-set keen on Kreuzer and weren't prepared to give him up even for Judd, so they traded pick 3 & Kennedy instead.

That isn't to say GWS won't trade it away. While I have no doubt they want Boyd, they'll trade pick 1 + their first round compo pick + Giles for Nic Naitanui in a heartbeat.