Prediction 1 Round to go, where do we finish end of H&A? Poll included.

[M Malice]

Dare I say it but this team might need the longer pre-season.

I'm with you BB and NB, if we lose our next 2 and somehow scrape into finals it would hardly be worth it. If we were to lose those 2 I'd prefer dropping out altogether, get a good rest and a full pre season and hit 2026 running with a few new recruits in Oscar Allen, Sam Draper and Daniel Annabel.

Plus of course cross our fingers for a healthy list come September 2026.

 

[CarterS]

It's not that unlikely. Dogs have West Coast and Dockers, both at home. They'll beat the Eagles obviously, and you'd think would be warm favourites for the other game.

It's starting to look likely that if we play finals, none of them will be at home. Perhaps that's for the best given we struggle here so much at the moment.

Wouldnt mind falling into the middle 6 for the purposes of getting an easier draw in 2026.

Two years in a row we've had the hardest draw.

 

[mpal6]

I think both of us will need to win to make the finals. It'll be a hot game

If Dogs drop one, even against Melbourne today - we'll be in.

Funny enough, even if we lose all games and scrape through on 8th - we may have a Hawks (MCG), Pies (MCG), Cats (MCG) path to granny. While it'll be so weird, this season has been a mixed bag already so I look forward to that possibility

 

[irel]

If Dogs drop one, even against Melbourne today - we'll be in.

Unbelievably every chance now we miss the eight.
Must win at least one of Freo or Hawks.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Unbelievably every chance now we miss the eight.
Must win at least one of Freo or Hawks.

Last time to miss the 8 having beat 6 teams in the top 8?

Strange season

 

[mpal6]

Unbelievably every chance now we miss the eight.
Must win at least one of Freo or Hawks.

Nah, even if we lose all - as long as Freo roll the dogs in round 24, we'll be good.

There'll be a top 4 spot on the line for Freo so I'm hoping they'll go all guns blazing for that one.

 

[irel]

Nah, even if we lose all - as long as Freo roll the dogs in round 24, we'll be good.

There'll be a top 4 spot on the line for Freo so I'm hoping they'll go all guns blazing for that one.

Me thinks Dogs will roll the Dockers.
We can't depend on other results.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Me thinks Dogs will roll the Dockers.
We can't depend on other results.

We can't or we shouldn't

 

[mpal6]

Me thinks Dogs will roll the Dockers.
We can't depend on other results.

Well, we couldn't help ourselves in terms of Gabba form.
We just have to rely on other results from here on.
Happy to finish 7th or 8th if it means we don't have to play at Gabba at all.

 

[irel]

We can't or we shouldn't

 

[BangyBangy]

Tight game in the West. You'd expect the Crows to get home.

Interesting fact if they don't though.

With two rounds to go mathematically we can still be minor premiers, or miss the finals totally.

 

[M Malice]

2 rounds to go.

Crows 64, 142.4% > Magpies - Kangaroos
Cats 60, 139.8% > Swans - Tigers
Magpies 60, 124.2% > Crows - Demons
Dockers 60, 112.7% > Lions - Bulldogs
Lions 58, 111.3% > Dockers - Hawks
Suns 56, 125.1% > Giants - Port - Bombers
Hawks 56, 121.2% > Demons - Lions
Giants 56, 114.1% > Suns - Saints -
_______
Bulldogs 52, 135.4% > Eagles - Dockers

We are lucky we got out of the game v the Kangaroos with the draw, our percentage the worst of the top 9.

A few vital verging on 50/50 battles in round 23.
Swans v Cats, Swans a real chance at home going on their form against us.
Dockers v Lions
Suns v Giants
Crows v Magpies
_______________
A tough final 2 games for a few of the top 9, I can see Magpies, Dockers, Lions and Hawks all at least a decent chance of losing both games, makes it very interesting that the Bulldogs have got such a good percentage as they can draw level on points with Magpies and Dockers and pass the Lions and Hawks if those teams lose both their games.

The only 95% chance wins I see are Crows v Kangaroos, Cats v Tigers, Suns v Port & Bombers, Giants v Saints and Bulldogs v Eagles.

If Suns beat the Giants next up they are certainties for top 4 maybe top 2.

If we beat the Dockers the last round Bulldogs v Dockers game will decide the final spot in the 8, IMO the Dockers lose their final 2 games and miss the 8.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Looks like we will finish either second or third. It’s going to come down to:

A. Sydney beat Geelong tomorrow, we beat Hawthorn next week and Geelong beat Richmond. We finish second. We end up with a Home Qualifying Final against Geelong.

B. Geelong win tomorrow and next week and we beat Hawthorn. We finish third and end up playing Geelong at the MCG in the Qualifying Final.

C. I am not going to contemplate us losing next week.

 

[luthor]

If Dogs drop one, even against Melbourne today - we'll be in.

Funny enough, even if we lose all games and scrape through on 8th - we may have a Hawks (MCG), Pies (MCG), Cats (MCG) path to granny. While it'll be so weird, this season has been a mixed bag already so I look forward to that possibility

View attachment 2391285

BOO!!!!

 

[Grasshopper17]

Looks like we will finish either second or third. It’s going to come down to:

A. Sydney beat Geelong tomorrow, we beat Hawthorn next week and Geelong beat Richmond. We finish second. We end up with a Home Qualifying Final against Geelong.

B. Geelong win tomorrow and next week and we beat Hawthorn. We finish third and end up playing Geelong at the MCG in the Qualifying Final.

C. I am not going to contemplate us losing next week.

Yes. I'm always loathe to jinx us but honestly, our home form has been largely rubbish this season anyway so I think our team is good enough at jinxing itself as it is

So just leaving this here for some positive karma



A couple of nice added bonuses here too. We avoid seeing Adelaide play Gold Coast in the first final which would equate to one of them acquiring finals experience for free.

Also it means there will only be 3 finals in Victoria for the entirety of September. Which will hit my funny bone no end (apologies to all our Vic supporters!). Be careful what you wished for Ross Oakley.

 

[Lace Out]

Would’ve given the Swans a chance with Grundy in

 

[twhowler]

Amazingly we can still finish 8th if we lose to hawthorn! And we would most likely finish 7th

 

[M Malice]

Amazingly we can still finish 8th if we lose to hawthorn! And we would most likely finish 7th

Our ideal matchup in the bottom half of the 8 would be the Dockers of the teams more likely to end up in the 5th-8th range.

We can still beat anyone but I would be a tad worried about meeting the Giants or Bulldogs in an EF.

Crows and Cats finish in top 4, Suns also a very good chance with the game in hand, the other top 4 spot could be anyone except the Bulldogs IMO.

It is all on the line next Sunday night for us either way, at least our fate is in our own hands, just can not see us winning 4 EF in a row this season with our injuries, we need the pre finals bye and another bye after a QF win would also come in handy this season.

 

[Lazza16]

Looks like we will finish either second or third. It’s going to come down to:

A. Sydney beat Geelong tomorrow, we beat Hawthorn next week and Geelong beat Richmond. We finish second. We end up with a Home Qualifying Final against Geelong.

B. Geelong win tomorrow and next week and we beat Hawthorn. We finish third and end up playing Geelong at the MCG in the Qualifying Final.

C. I am not going to contemplate us losing next week.

C. We are due on recent form.

 

[Sunny Land]

Cant believe the “leg up” Geelong and others have been given this year. I accept it’s impossible to put a season fixture together that is fair for all but this one is so slanted for some its just wrong. It could have been more even for sure

 

[Nathan Barley]

I agree with you!

The draw has been farcical this year and I think heard during the week that the Lions fixture in 25 was the hardest ever draw handed out to a club in the history of game. Fair play to us on many levels and even with those losses we shouldn't have had, I do acknowledge it has been massive by us to potentially be going into the final round in second if Swans can beat the Cats today.

A big reason why when the media bang on about advantages and use Academies as reasons the northern clubs need to be reigned in, the fixture is never taken into account as if like them are the breaks being an "interstate" team. Even then, for the northern clubs, unlike the SA / WA clubs, we don't have our derbies on our home grounds and still very much play away for both QLD and NSW clubs and on top of that, the SA / WA clubs get an extra home state game with Gather Round (SA) and North selling home games to the WA games.

The draw was very well summed up in Damo's sliding doors as much as that pains me saying it.

Geelong had 4 double ups against bottom 8 teams. We had 0

 

[Nathan Barley]

Starting to come round to the idea that every team plays each other once and then the top, middle and bottom 6 teams split up and play each other once with the bottom 6 teams playing for higher draft picks

 

[BangyBangy]

Geelong had 4 double ups against bottom 8 teams. We had 0

Soft draws & playing minow teams at Kardinia has led to them playing finals regularly over the last 13 years for one flag.

Yes, I was selective with some of the data there so it supports my narrative.

 

[SizeMatters]

They need to implement a three year rolling average of final finishing positions to hold the majority of the weighting in determining the fixture for the upcoming season. How the **** did Cats and get such an easy draw when they’ve been up for years.

Also trying to help the shitty “Big 4” vic clubs (“ a strong Big 4 is “good for the game” BS!) with prime time TV slots is a disgrace. Should be reserved for the top 8 teams only or those one off events (Indigenous Round etc). But that’s another story.

 

[M Malice]

Starting to come round to the idea that every team plays each other once and then the top, middle and bottom 6 teams split up and play each other once with the bottom 6 teams playing for higher draft picks

Yes, don't mind it, could make a middle six draw a lot easier than a top 6 draw though but fairer than the system we have now... never going to get a totally fair draw unless everyone plays each other home and away in the one season.