Analysis 2008 v 2018 could we do it again?

[Aramis]

Basing this on the feel and current state of the competition and squiggle.

2008... Cats were absolutely dominating the competition, more so than the 2018 Tigers currently.

Lets look at the squiggle analysis of Round 21 2008 v Round 21 2018.

Essentially all teams have a less attacking style but a better defensive game. The gap from 08 Geelong to Hawthorn compared with the gap from 18 Richmond to Hawthorn is fairly similar statistically/ratings wise.

I ask you now to go into squiggle 2008, (https://live.squiggle.com.au/2008.html) set it to round 21 and click the right arrow watching our movements over the remaining season games + finals essentially throwing us into "the mix", the upper right hand side of that invisible line running diagonally across the grid.

Good results against St Kilda and Sydney could throw us right into "the mix"... In 2008 at Round 21 we were not in the "the mix" but between Round 21 and the GF we made it into "the mix".

Imo we would prefer to play Richmond in the GF and not before, we need GWS to drop a game and for us to win both. But I truly believe if we make it into the GF playing Richmond we will repeat our heroics of 2008. Statistically and based on "gut feel" I think we can repeat it. This is a Richmond team that goes at around 80% playing a very efficient brand of football without many hiccups, wheres their adversity?

Wheres the guts when they go 20 points behind in the heat of a GF? will their tactics be able to get them back into a game that they find themselves behind on from the first bounce? They deserved the premiership last year, i'm not taking anything away from them.. lets be honest though Adelaide did nothing to "test" them. I just feel if the right team gets them on GF day and puts them on the back foot its up for grabs. They are not insurmountable, not by a long shot.

Could we do it again?

 

[seysearles]

Don't forget 88 and 78!

 

[tommyk72]

Don't forget 88 and 78!

Can't wait til someone invents time machines to we can go back and fix that 98 mess.

 

[Luv_our_club]

People outside of Hawthorn are talking about Clarkson winning coach of the year.

Those people will get very confused and angry if we win the flag.

 

[Del33640]

Lot more talent in that 2008 side, a heap of guys coming into the early stages of their prime all at once. Only Crawford and Dew were truly veterans, and they were the equal resume or ability wise of our current ones.

No-one would have predicted the Dogs in 2016, so recent history certainly suggests anything is possible over the last 4 weeks of the year.

But we are outsiders, absolutely not without a chance, but not as likely as 2008 you would think. We were the second best team that year - consensus was fairly much that across media and league supporter bases.

 

[Hodginator]

 

[Flamin Joe]

Sorry to be the bringer of bad news but 2018 will be a repeat of 2012. This time it will be the lack of a key forward which is the difference.

But the good news, in comes future Norm Smith medallist Tom Lynch via free agency and we 3 peat. It's a time honoured Hawthorn tradition.

 

[Dewnior]

Basing this on the feel and current state of the competition and squiggle.

2008... Cats were absolutely dominated the competition, more so thanthan 2018 Tigers currently.

Lets look at the squiggle analysis of Round 21 2008 v Round 21 2018.

Essentially all teams have a less attacking style but a better defensive game. The gap from 08 Geelong to Hawthorn compared with the gap from 18 Richmond to Hawthorn is fairly similar statistically/ratings wise.

I ask you now to go into squiggle 2008, (https://live.squiggle.com.au/2008.html) set it to round 21 and click the right arrow watching our movements over the remaining season games + finals essentially throwing us into "the mix", the upper right hand side of that invisible line running diagonally across the grid.

Good results against St Kilda and Sydney could throw us right into "the mix"... In 2008 at Round 21 we were not in the "the mix" but between Round 21 and the GF we made it into "the mix".

Imo we would prefer to play Richmond in the GF and not before, we need GWS to drop a game and for us to win both. But I truly believe if we make it into the GF playing Richmond we will repeat our heroics of 2008. Statistically and based on "gut feel" I think we can repeat it. This is a Richmond team that goes at around 80% playing a very efficient brand of football without many hiccups, wheres their adversity?

Wheres the guts when they go 20 points behind in the heat of a GF? will their tactics be able to get them back into a game that they find themselves behind on from the first bounce? They deserved the premiership last year, i'm not taking anything away from them.. lets be honest though Adelaide did nothing to "test" them. I just feel if the right team gets them on GF day and puts them on the back foot its up for grabs. They are not insurmountable, not by a long shot.

Could we do it again?

What about a 2007 analysis? Cats dominated the competition much the same way as Tigers this year.

We were in a building phase with an exciting group of youngsters coming through.

Could have pinched 4th place with a win against the Swans in the last round. Had to be content with an elimination finals win and a flag the following year

 

[KermitJagger]

Sorry to be the bringer of bad news but 2018 will be a repeat of 2012. This time it will be the lack of a key forward which is the difference.

But the good news, in comes future Norm Smith medallist Tom Lynch via free agency and we 3 peat. It's a time honoured Hawthorn tradition.

Hawthorn, with a forward line containing Jack Gunston and Jarryd Roughead unfortunately one key forward short of beating Richmond with only Jack Riewoldt.

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

Watch us lose to the Saints now.

 

[Tassie Cryptik]

Yes.

 

[Hawkie_McHawkHawk]

Not this time unfortunately.
Besides, if we somehow managed to pull it off this year I would hate to see us next season, winning the whole thing ahead of schedule does funny things to players/ coaches hunger, 2019 Hawthorn would make 2009 Hawthorn look good.

Still a whole handful of pieces off before we seriously challenge.

 

[Randall Stevens]

The past two years have shown that any team can grab a flag if they hit peak form and have a fit and healthy list in the finals, so we could possibly pinch it on that basis.
However, I don't really see any comparison to 2008, regardless of squiggle.
In 2008 we were - at least by this stage of the season - clearly the second best team in the comp and the number 1 challenger. In fact I recall discussing with mates going into the finals that if it hadn't been for Geelong we would be 'good things' for the flag.

As much as I would love the same ending, we are not currently the second best team by any measure.

 

[Hawkie_McHawkHawk]

The past two years have shown that any team can grab a flag if they hit peak form and have a fit and healthy list in the finals, so we could possibly pinch it on that basis.
However, I don't really see any comparison to 2008, regardless of squiggle.
In 2008 we were - at least by this stage of the season - clearly the second best team in the comp and the number 1 challenger. In fact I recall discussing with mates going into the finals that if it hadn't been for Geelong we would be 'good things' for the flag.

As much as I would love the same ending, we are not currently the second best team by any measure.

Not to mention that we were the best team throughout the finals series- Geelong were ok, but hawthorn were hitting their straps.

As much as the last two flags were a raffle it was due to no real team being a standout, that’s not the case this year and it will require the Hawks going up another couple of gears (if they have them) and the tigers falling back to earth.

 

[KermitJagger]

Just because we're not the obvious second best team this year doesn't mean we're not a shot for the premiership. There is no obvious second best team this year.

I honestly feel as though we're better poised for an attack on the finals this year than we were in 2016. Ben McEvoy is a better player now, Sicily is a much better player now, Burton has arrived as a player, Stratton is better, Breust is better. We've brought in Mitchell and O'Meara who are younger, quicker and more dynamic than Lewis and SMitchell were. They're more defensively minded.

Gunston is keeping on his usual form, Hardwick has been great, Ceglar should stay fit (touch wood) and we'll have Roughead back who is a huge in on field and in finals. We could be primed to have Birch back for leadership, which on top of our natural development will be huge.

We are far less easily exploited with our current mix of players, and generally things look much more positive. The only negative I can think of is the fact that we've lost Cyril and he is absolutely irreplaceable.

Our best can match it with anyone.

 

[VernonSpots]

Just because we're not the obvious second best team this year doesn't mean we're not a shot for the premiership. There is no obvious second best team this year.

I honestly feel as though we're better poised for an attack on the finals this year than we were in 2016. Ben McEvoy is a better player now, Sicily is a much better player now, Burton has arrived as a player, Stratton is better, Breust is better. We've brought in Mitchell and O'Meara who are younger, quicker and more dynamic than Lewis and SMitchell were. They're more defensively minded.

Gunston is keeping on his usual form, Hardwick has been great, Ceglar should stay fit (touch wood) and we'll have Roughead back who is a huge in on field and in finals. We could be primed to have Birch back for leadership, which on top of our natural development will be huge.

We are far less easily exploited with our current mix of players, and generally things look much more positive. The only negative I can think of is the fact that we've lost Cyril and he is absolutely irreplaceable.

Our best can match it with anyone.

Outsude of Richmond, who we will have to beat to get to a flag, biggest worry is GWS. I think we would back ourselves in against any other team whether at MCG or away.

If we do play Giants, hopefully we manage to get them at the G.

 

[A Cut Above]

Possible, yes. Likely, no.

We've looked decidedly average for most of the season and the biggest thing in our favor is so has the rest of competition except Richmond, who aren't invulnerable by any means but are clearly the best team at the MCG as their record proves. Then again one injury to Riewoldt or Rance and they're back to the rest of the pack.

However we may well be Richmond's biggest threat to B2B since I can't see West Coast or GWS beating them at the MCG this year, Melbourne Port, Sydney & Geelong are pretenders and Collingwood has beaten one top 8 team all year.

 

[Aramis]

Not this time unfortunately.
Besides, if we somehow managed to pull it off this year I would hate to see us next season, winning the whole thing ahead of schedule does funny things to players/ coaches hunger, 2019 Hawthorn would make 2009 Hawthorn look good.

Still a whole handful of pieces off before we seriously challenge.

Only on BigFooty someone find negatives about winning a premiership you haven't even won yet.

So due to fear we will be shit in 2019 because we were 2009 after prematurely winning 2008 lets not win 2018? Sorry but thats honestly in the running for the dumbest shit i've read on this website.

 

[Hawkie_McHawkHawk]

Only on BigFooty someone find negatives about winning a premiership you haven't even won yet.

So due to fear we will be shit in 2019 because we were 2009 after prematurely winning 2008 lets not win 2018? Sorry but thats honestly in the running for the dumbest shit i've read on this website.

Do you ever have anything worthwhile to add? It was a passing thought you beat off. I didn’t exactly say it was a problem did I eh? I’d trade a 5 bad seasons for one flag.

 

[crazywildhorse]

No. Not nearly as good as Richmond, GWS, WC in Perth. GWS are my tip, they continue to chalk them up, with one of the worst injury lists going around. So much depth, and their younger leaders are starting to stand up more consistently. Richmond are an accident of history. Rest of the competition has been average. They are very ordinary for a top of the ladder team. Massively lucky with their injury situation also

 

[Aramis]

Do you ever have anything worthwhile to add? It was a passing thought you beat off. I didn’t exactly say it was a problem did I eh? I’d trade a 5 bad seasons for one flag.

Well that wasn't how you initially framed the original post.

 

[Bedi]

As per always it's the best team in September that wins the flag, not for the duration of the year.

 

[Nugett]

I like the optimism. I think we are more in 2007 mode rather than 2008.

 

[Fluro Boots]

The best shot i can see is if we win the next 2 and finish 3rd, win the first week against west coast and Richmond also win thus we stay o n the opposite side of the draw to them. Win a prelim and then take on the Tigers on the big day and anything can happen. If we're lucky someone else might do the job on the Tigs before they get there.

 

[marklar]

The past two years have shown that any team can grab a flag if they hit peak form and have a fit and healthy list in the finals, so we could possibly pinch it on that basis.

Of course we could, the regular season is a grind to get into the finals when the real stuff starts.
recent form - yes,
healthy list - yes,
finals experience - yes,
experienced coach - yes,
adaptable game plan - yes,

so, why not?