2011 Potential Draftee and Trade Watch

[Turbocat]

As Jester mentioned it , I thought we could start with an obvious one.
A kid , who if he is half reasonable , will be drafted by us in 2011.

Jed Bews

The little I have seen of the kid he is a bit different to his old man but still looks a likely type. Not unusual I suppose , watching young Liber today , he is quite a bit different to his father probably more of a "todays" type footballer.
Jed looked more of a link type player when I saw him rather than bottom of the packs but as we know watching kids football can be rather misleading , Menzel played mainly as a sweeper in the u18 champs yet look at how he is playing for us.

The main thing is Jed looks a likely type , one for us to watch thru the year and with it being another distorted draft because of GWS he would be very good value pick

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2010/03/11/153851_geelong_sports.html

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2010/05/29/177511_geelong_sports.html

 

[thejester]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Good start Turbo, looking forward to seeing how young Jed goes this year - handy position to be in in a (slightly less) compromised draft. Frustratingly I'm in a position with work/uni where I could go see a lot of underage footy - except I'm in Canberra! Hopefully will at least be able to get to various bits of the carnival this year, especially if they hold a round in Blacktown.

One other thing that popped up from that first article you posted Turbo is this:

The Falcons' squad of 50 contains five 19-year-olds, four who played last year - Tom MacKenzie, Mitch Fisher, Michael Sodomaco and Jarryn McCormack - and Issac Baker.

Paul Hood was with the Falcons last year and now's become part of our development staff; IIRC someone said he's handling matchday coaching for the VFL as well. Interesting that having done so he brings over two guys in Fisher and Baker who were on the fringes of the draft last season and are now too old for the Falcons.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Great idea to start this thread Turbo, now I have somewhere to come and read the opinions of all you really knowledgeable guys leading up to draft time.

Will be interesting to see how Jed goes this year, I think that so long as he progresses, with the draft being compromised (and probably weaker than last year's compromised one) we'll definitely look at him.

Now just find me some talls Wellsy!

P.S. certainly hope Fisher gets some games later in the year in our VFL side, I've always rated him. Along with Bews, I think we might also be more likely to draft one (or more) from our VFL side as rookies (I know we take one most years, but I reckon this year we might take more than one) given the lack of depth in the talent pool.

 

[Turbocat]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

As the year progress ,I hope we all throw up a name or two that - we have read about or seen etc..

The first kid thought took my interest was when I was read the the TAC thread

Johnathon Patton - 196/197 cm Eastern Ranges

- a couple of reads that took my interest.

"Patton, Eastern's best-and-fairest winner last year, is a powerhouse 196cm key forward from the St Simons junior football club and will be a key to the Ranges' 2011 campaign."
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...t-training-track/story-fn53klc6-1226009528682

Ranges pins hopes on star
02 Mar, 2011 01:00 AM
EASTERN Ranges may not have a lot to be happy about leading into the TAC Cup season but one shining light is key forward Jonathan Patton.
The highly touted "power forward" and reigning club best-and-fairest will attract plenty of attention from AFL scouts and opponents this season.

Region manager Anthony Parkin said Patton was a player to watch for in 2011 after a superb bottom-age season.
"He's a power forward with a great set of hands," he said. "He'll anchor our forward line. At 196 centimetres and 93kilograms, he takes a lot of moving and is similar to Jonathan Brown
http://www.knoxweekly.com.au/news/l...-rules/ranges-pins-hopes-on-star/2090322.aspx



So I had a look at him play on MatchVision
http://rangesfc.matchvision.com.au/player/jonathon-patton

My impressions - Its always very difficult to judge low tempo footy compared to high tempo. Its why Hawkins dominated at Juniors compared to Daws yet at the higher tempo , maybe Daws has adjusted to it better.

Anyway this kid look talented. He may be a bit too relaxed to judge him when he is playing against the other kids but he seems to read the play well. Moves around , gets up the ground and looks for team mates to give to. Kicking seems good maybe not great but good has good action. He marks overhead and on the chest . Nice package. By the way he kicked 6 the first week.

I’d say we will see more of him in the Champs but he is one to keep on eye on if we are looking at another tall forward IF we think Brown may just be a little fragile

 

[year of the cat]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Good to see this thread up and running again for the year. Always enjoy it.

If memory serves me correctly Turbo you touted the drafting of Smedts very early on (first page?) last year. If Patton gets taken by us I will personally commend you as Wells' future replacement!!

It seems consensus already that we are likely to go tall with this years draft having taken a swag of mids over the past two drafts. You would think that with Ottens and Mooney retiring at years end that there is even more reason to replace a couple of talls. Blake is also likely to be moved on and Milburn will also retire. Do we envisage any other changes?

I would imagine that if we look to upgrade one rookie (Weston?) that we will take at least 3 players in the draft. You would think that there will be at least one and probably two further player/s delisted or traded that it is more likely we will go to the draft with 4-5 players in our sights.

If Bews is to be a FS pick (small/med type) then we may well go tall with our other picks - including taking at least one ruckman.

I wonder whether we will actively go after either a youngish KP or ruckman during trade week? With salary cap space being available with Ablett's defection and these other senior players retiring we may well be in a position to attract a decent young tall. Names like McKernan, Talia, Mitch Brown (WC), Leuenberger and Clark (everyone else is leaving Brisvegas) may be looked at.

What do we think?

 

[Turbocat]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Good memory there YOTC. I was certainly happy with our first two picks. wrapped in Guthrie as well although Darling is a bit of worry , he is looking rather good. Nutjob but he can play.

Anyway strategy.
Lets keep in mind it may be Scotts first influence on our drafting but I doubt he will want to mess with Wells too much when he looks at Menzel , Duncan etc.

Generally I think we will go the same we have before. Go for guys that are good kids , have reasonable size , very good foot skills and footy smarts , the quicker the better but not before the former.

One thing to keep in mind Geelong have drafted a ruck in 03,05,07,09 so what's the chance in 11 that we go for another ruck when we will probably lose a couple off our list. I certainly will be looking for another guy capable of playing like a Salmon type.

I think we have all been guilty having less faith in Lonergan than the inner circle but I'm not enamored with Gillies at this stage. So another tall that is defender type may be needed but can West do this . Surely Lonergan's story will give West hope , and I really have not seen Bathie yet.

Rookies , jurys out. By years end there may not be a Rookie list if the players have their way. Westons has apparently hurt his back , very unfortunate. I await Simpkin getting a game because he looked promising pre-season.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Patton's really impressive. Given our first pick will be in the late teens or the early twenties though, I can't see him falling that far. Will go to someone else earlier if not GWS.

My consensus is given we're only going to have 3 picks inside 60 (well that's likely unless we trade anyone out at the end of the year) we'll look to take 3 guys only. Given the perceived lack of depth of the draft I can't see us taking any more than three players unless we trade out guys to get more picks in. The list changes to me look obvious even though it's a fair way out, we'll lose 4 retirees (probably Ling Otto Mooney and Dasher) plus Blake, and elevate one or two rookies, Weston and Simpkin would be my tips.

I think we have to go tall this year, having said that you can only pick what's there, and clearly Wells and a few other recruiters didn't rate the talls in 2010, so it'll be a matter of what quality is around our picks. Nevertheless if it's a line ball call we've got to take talls this year, we'll be losing 2 ruckmen, Mooney, plus Scarlett in a year or two. Key defence must be a priority unless Gillies really comes on and Drum shows a lot once he gets back on the park, even if they do I'd still look for a tall back given Lonergan isn't a long term solution at 27. Despite Pods age, I rate Brown and Vardy enough not to be super concerned about a KPF unless there's a real slider. A quality ruckman is a must, whether we draft one or trade for one is the question.

 

[thejester]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

I agree Patton looks good but he's got GWS written all over him...then again this time in 2009 John Butcher was already wearing a Melbourne jumper and in 2008 NicNat and Rich were going 1 and 2 and no-one had ever heard of Jack Watts and Stephen Hill - so who knows?

Reckon our needs are going to be determined to a huge extent by the performance of a couple of players. Will Gillies show enough or do we need insurance? Is Walker a serious long-term prospect, either forward or back? We've got four ruckmen playing twos at the moment; two are out of contract at the end of the year. How well they all play determines whether or not we need to draft anothe ruck.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

I agree Jes things can change but not to that extent. Will be gone before our 20's pick I reckon. Never mind.

Certainly the performance of our talls in the VFL will determine strategy to some extent, but not solely. Even if Gillies does keep developing I do feel we need another option in the pipeline. Similarly I suspect the decision will just about have already been made that Blake is going and the other three young rucks staying.

The ruck issue is interesting. In reality any ruckman we get at pick 20ish in a compromised draft isn't likely to be the solution, the best crack at that is wheeling out the compo pick in a really good draft as a (hopefully) top 10 pick and get a quality junior ruckman then.

In reality, the best model is to run with Dawson/West Vardy, give them 2 years to show what they can do, and if they can't, wheel out the comp pick around 2013. The issue with that however is with development time, it then becomes several years (2016ish) before we have a quality ruckman to feed this great batch of mids we are building, if Dawson etc don't come on as we hope, and this will have a material effect on our ability to win games, no matter how good our mids are. So to me it becomes a matter of philosophy in terms of when the club feels our next genuine flag crack is (obviously we don't believe in bottoming out, but I refer to when we think our next window time opens) is 3-4 years away, then we just go with what we have, including drafting talls this year on top. If they believe we are a chance sooner than that then they may have to go into the trade market for a quality ruckman should there be one. To me that will be the big decision that Wells will make this year, more so than whether to target talls in the draft, which I suspect is likely given the ages of Scarlett, Mooney Podsiadly and Ottens.

 

[Turbocat]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

I agree Jes things can change but not to that extent. Will be gone before our 20's pick I reckon. Never mind.

You may be right PO but if we look back at our prognostications 12 months ago would we have Darling going at 26? Things can happen the question is if those things then effect your own opinion so much that you probably then wont draft him.

Not rated near as high but young Walker slipped to our Rookie pick when a lot had him going much earlier and hopefully this it may play to our advantage. I have not seen him play that much , just the champs game at Geelong but he looked a nice type that may be capable both ends.Grundy was a forward too and now plays permanent defender , plenty have done it the past.

In any case Patton's just one of many , I have no doubt that if we can pick up a Duncan at 28, Christensen at 40 etc... that we can find some kids in this compromised draft worth a pick.

I can not argue with your logic on rucks , its a very long time line for ruckmen unless one can grab a ruck who is the equivalent of Selwood and you don't often get that with the pick we will have. I wouldn't totally exclude the possibility of us trading to get a lower pick but thats just fairyfloss till its in your hand.

Addendum to Jed Bews ; the TAC website has his height as 186 , hope its accurate as it would certainly only help his claims

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

I understand what you're saying, although to be fair Darling had off field issues which is largely why he slid. Both Butcher and Darling performed under expectations in their final year after being touted as top 3 picks, yet one slid a lot further than the other and there's a reason for that. He (Darling) does look like a real player though but that's why lots of clubs passed on him, and it's unusual for a player to slide that far. For example young (Jake) Stringer who trained with us over summer will slide massively now that he's broken his leg, but a kid like Patton who seems to be top 10 now may slide a bit, but he won't slide far enough for us.

I reckon we can get a good player even in this draft in the 20's, the question will be whether we can get a good ruck in the 20's, because no doubt the new club will look for talls as GC did, so that might be a real problem for us unless we end up trading up. In reality we're a bit disadvantaged because this year we need a specific type of player, so if we can get a good mid in the 20's that's great, but it's not what we need as much as a tall or a key defender, so we really have to hope there's some good ones and they slide. If there are a few good talls in this draft I'd like to see us try and be aggressive in trading player or players out to get a higher pick(s).

On Jed, I noticed he was named for the Falcons opening game on the w/e, anyone know how he went?

Certainly the ruck issue is as I said a problem because of the timeline it takes to develop them (Dawson and West are a case in point there) so like I said I think the club will have to have a philosophical decision about whether their aim for the next 3 years is to simply manage the transition and ensure we don't fall too farm, or whether they want to keep having a genuine flag crack and think the rest of the list is good enough for that. If it's the latter, expect us to be linked with any good ruckman who looks like leaving his current club.

 

[rizzo]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Gonna looks forward to contributing to this, this year. Last year was so hectic i didn't see much footy.

 

[thejester]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Don't know how Bews went but the Falcons got done. Only other thing of interest I saw was that there's a Higgins lining up for them - presumably brother of. Interested to see how he goes.

 

[LankyCat]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Hi guys

I am interested why you all seem to agree that another ruckman is a consideration. As far as I know we currently have on our list:
Blake - Gone
Otto - Probably gone depending on his body
Dawson - Competed well every time I have seen him and big enough to play 1st ruck
West - Having his best ever season so far
Vardy - Was expected to be a high pick and one of the best junior ruckmen before he got drafted and apparently playing well in the 2s
Bathie? - Think I read he is an ex basketballer and is playing down back atm.

Given the history of ruck draftees (Cox + Sandilands were rookies) why is there any need to further clog up the VFL team when we have 4 ruck prospects + hawkins now? Or is it just that dawson may be the only one of the "kids" tall enough to replace otto as 1st ruck?

Also, very glad you started this thread again. I dont post much but I have been reading it for the last couple of years and find it very interesting

 

[Turbocat]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Lanky , this is only my opinion so i can be as wrong as anyone but
1 , We have shown that we will draft a ruckman bi-annually
2, Read PO's post rel to timeline. You trade for a ruck you need now , you draft for a ruck in 3-4 years time.Of course so much can happen in that timeline that it makes it essential to keep a heavy number listed.
3, Even if a ruckman is poor , they usually are worth something in trade. Not so for mids
4, The change of the game may mean that the players on list don't suit where the we think the game is heading..
5, As much as we may hope that one of our kids develop , if a player presents that looks a better option we would be only smart to grab him. Brisbane did this with Leuenburger for eg.
Generally the picks that we get means that the cream tall guys are gone. We then picks up the best we can which is usually a mid type player and grab a tall later who may be talented but is consider a much longer term prospect.
If Billy Longer or Todd Elton or some other obviously talented tall kid fell to us we would be crazy not to consider it even if it made us too tall short term.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Hi guys

I am interested why you all seem to agree that another ruckman is a consideration. As far as I know we currently have on our list:
Blake - Gone
Otto - Probably gone depending on his body
Dawson - Competed well every time I have seen him and big enough to play 1st ruck
West - Having his best ever season so far
Vardy - Was expected to be a high pick and one of the best junior ruckmen before he got drafted and apparently playing well in the 2s
Bathie? - Think I read he is an ex basketballer and is playing down back atm.

Given the history of ruck draftees (Cox + Sandilands were rookies) why is there any need to further clog up the VFL team when we have 4 ruck prospects + hawkins now? Or is it just that dawson may be the only one of the "kids" tall enough to replace otto as 1st ruck?

Also, very glad you started this thread again. I dont post much but I have been reading it for the last couple of years and find it very interesting

Gday Lanky, here's how I see it:
-Otto will retire at the end of the year and Blakey will be gone
-Bathie is too speculative to be considered in the depth at this point (not to say he won't come on, but you can't do your list management assuming that he will)
-Vardy yes is rated, but the club rates him as a quality CHF. He will play ruck, but that's more because of the interchange rule than anyone else. I doubt he will become a no1 ruck at afl level

-This year is Dawson's 4th year and West's 6th, and neither of them have done a lot. That's not a knock on them, for they've lacked opportunities, but you couldn't honestly be confident enough in either of them to say yep, our rucks are set, don't draft any more. By contrast, when you look at the senior mids we have, Bartel, Kelly, Selwood et al, plus Duncan, Menz, Poodle, Bundy, Guthrie etc, we have much more depth in that position. So it really makes sense to draft another ruck, not so mucb because our rucks are crap per se, but it's the area of the list that we are relatively weaker in, so it's good list management to strengthen it.

And as I've discussed, rucks tend to take so long to develop, so if you put your faith in Daws/West etc now, and they don't come on, it's 3 yeaes before you discover that, and then another 4 years or so for you to draft and develop another ruck. Much better to draft another one now and reduce the risk you end up wasting that much time. If he develops, and Dawson etc also do, and you end up with a surplus of rucks, that's fine, because ruckmen always attract good value at the trade table (there's heaps of examples of that).

So I reckon all the logic says we'll draft another one now. The issue is whether the pool has one, one of my concerns is that early on in their life GC took Smith, Nicholls and Thompson as 17yo/zone guys, whereas to my knowledge GWS haven't taken any good ruckmen yet, so the ones that are in the pool I reckon they'll take and we'll be lucky if anyone slips through

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Lanky , this is only my opinion so i cant be as wrong as anyone but
1 , We have shown that we will draft a ruckman bi-annually
2, Read PO's post rel to timeline. You trade for a ruck you need now , you draft for a ruck in 3-4 years time.Of course so much can happen in that timeline that it makes it essential to keep a heavy number listed.
3, Even if a ruckman is poor , they usually are worth something in trade. Not so for mids
4, The change of the game may mean that the players on list don't suit where the we think the game is heading..
5, As much as we may hope that one of our kids develop , if a player presents that looks a better option we would be only smart to grab him. Brisbane did this with Leuenburger for eg.
Generally the picks that we get means that the cream tall guys are gone. We then picks up the best we can which is usually a mid type player and grab a tall later who may be talented but is consider a much longer term prospect.
If Billy Longer or Todd Elton or some other obviously talented tall kid fell to us we would be crazy not to consider it even if it made us too tall short term.

Agree with all those points, particularly about developing a heavy number.

As for Longer, not sure how we could get him, even if we tried to trade up our first pick, I reckon he'll be out of reach. Pity because I rate the kid.

One thing I wonder about, and it would have to be answered by the more knowledgeable guys on this board, are there any rucks really rated this year who are eligible for the GWS 17yo mini draft? If so I can see us offering up some good players to try and get the next Kingy.

 

[Cataholic]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Read an interesting article in the Hun today, where there was some speculation that the Suns will struggle to retain all their youngsters as rival clubs attempt to lure them away.

One name thrown out was Tom Lynch - a Victorian born 'key forward'.

Speculative piece of writing of course, but might he be one we'd pursue?

 

[Turbocat]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

The idea is good , in that there will be heap of kids that used to being "in the side" and may , for what ever reason , miss out. Probably it will be a bit like kids in a lollie shop because they have a heap of quality up there and im sure the SA clubs will target SA kids , WA clubs target WA kids etc. We and I hope all the other big clubs can have a real dip (serve them right for being far to greedy imo) and the very min pressure them in their SC. Names? Lynch & Caddy are perhaps the obvious ones but kids like Piers Flangagan & Tom Nicholls might be good chances too. Nicholls is a ruckman that will struggle for game time behind Gorringe and Smith

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Read an interesting article in the Hun today, where there was some speculation that the Suns will struggle to retain all their youngsters as rival clubs attempt to lure them away.

One name thrown out was Tom Lynch - a Victorian born 'key forward'.

Speculative piece of writing of course, but might he be one we'd pursue?

Maybe, although Lynch is very raw, really only shot up into contention in his final year, so it's be a bit of a gamble.

Assuming Zac Smith is no chance (he'll stay there for a long time) I'd love Gorringe as a mobile ruckman, or Tape as a backman. Both fit our needs really well and are smart footballers. Probably no chance though.

Victorian wise, Caddy and Toy might be the ones that look to come back, but we don't exactly need more midfielders, even classy ones. Gotta go hard at any bigs that look to come home.

 

[year of the cat]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Sam Day for me!! Would have to give up the kitchen sink to get him though.

 

[year of the cat]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

A rumour going around that Jackson Trengove of PA wants to move back to Victoria. He would be a nice fit as a young, mobile, big bodied defender.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Good mobile defender who can potentially also take a turn in the ruck, fits our needs perfectly.

If he really is coming back we'd be negligent not to talk to his management.

Would cost a first round pick at least I'd suspect but I'd be happy to entertain a trade, you've gotta get to give.

 

[Cataholic]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Good mobile defender who can potentially also take a turn in the ruck, fits our needs perfectly.

If he really is coming back we'd be negligent not to talk to his management.

Would cost a first round pick at least I'd suspect but I'd be happy to entertain a trade, you've gotta get to give.

While I understand your comments re: ruck depth and development time, I see our stocks of tall forwards as being pretty thin right now too, with only Brown and Vardy being serious contenders at this point.

Therefore, I'm interested in your thoughts as to which way the club would go, should both a quality tall forward and defender become available simultaneously.

How do you see it?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

While I understand your comments re: ruck depth and development time, I see our stocks of tall forwards as being pretty thin right now too, with only Brown and Vardy being serious contenders at this point.

Therefore, I'm interested in your thoughts as to which way the club would go, should both a quality tall forward and defender become available simultaneously.

How do you see it?

Well I'm not sure what the club would do (if it's a KPF or KPB). Ultimately if we're talking trades there's a number of factors at play including price, available picks, leverage etc, and draft, again a number of factors at play in terms of availability. Anyway, back on your question, personally I rate Brown + Vardy higher than I do Gillies (the three are all we have in reserve at either end) so I'd go KPB if it was one or the other). I do realise Brown has had a lot of injuries, but they're looking more collision injuries than ongoing soft tissue stuff, so I'd back him to come good, and I do rate Vardy. I like some things that I see in Gillies but I'm less confident, so hence KPB for me.