2011 TdF Crystal Ball Thread

[Bond.ShaneBond]

Give some predictions:

Top 5:


Smokey:


Green Jersey:


Polka Dot Jersey:


White Jersey:


Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?


Gesink v Van der Broeck:


Top placed Radioshack rider:


Most critical stage:


Which contender will crash out before the mountains:


TTT top 3:


Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:


Gilbert stage wins:


Contador stage wins:


Cav v Greipel stage wins:


Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:


Least favourite:


Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish:

 

[Bond.ShaneBond]

Top 5:
Contador
A Schleck
Sammy Sanchez
Basso
Gesink

Smokey:
Karpets

Green Jersey:
Cav. Is due.

Polka Dot Jersey:
Contador

White Jersey:
Gesink

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Voeckler

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
Gesink

Top placed Radioshack rider:
Kloden

Most critical stage:
Stage 20 TT

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
Evans

TTT top 3:
HTC
Radioshack
Garmin

Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
5,098,726

Gilbert stage wins:
2

Contador stage wins:
3

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Cav

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
Sammy Sanchez

Least favourite:
Levi

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish:
147th

 

[Sasquatch]

Gotta love Jeandesboz

 

[Bond.ShaneBond]

I rate a cyclist who doesn't have a Wikipedia page in English. Go Fabrice!

 

[monty1104]

Top 5:
Alberto Contador
Andy Schleck
Alexandre Vinoukourov
Levi Leipheimer
Robert Gesink

Smokey(s):
Damiano Cunego and Christophe Kern

Green Jersey:
Thor

Polka Dot Jersey:
Alberto Contador

White Jersey:
Robert Gesink

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Txurruka

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
Gesink

Top placed Radioshack rider:
Levi Leipheimer

Most critical stage:
Stage 12 - Cugnaux -> Luz Ardiden

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
Chris Horner

TTT top 3:
Leopard Trek
Garmin Cervelo
Radioshak

Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
About the same amount of times they mention "Little Sammy Dumoulin" or "Big Johan Vansummeran" (even though he isnt riding)

Gilbert stage wins:
3

Contador stage wins:
1

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Cav

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
Roman Kreuziger (but Johnny Hoogerland is far more entertaining)

Least favourite:
Brad Wiggins (just because of the biased commentary during the Dauphine)

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish: 128th

 

[Zumbido]

Top 5:
Contador
*Daylight*
Sanchez
Schleck
Leipheimer
Evans

Smokey:
Sanchez. Not really a smoky, but neither is he one of the 'big two'. Seems like the only one of the contenders crazy enough (or is that brave enough?) to attack with the appropriate level of gusto and foolhardiness.

Green Jersey:
Thor. Cavendish with the most stages but I see Thor getting enough points on the lumpier stages to win it.

Polka Dot Jersey:
Vino. Too old and too poor a team for overall. Just crazy enough for an all-day attack in the last week where all of the mountain points are.

White Jersey:
Gesink. No contest - climbs well, has the support of his team and his ineptness against the clock won't be a factor with this just one ITT.

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Voeckler.

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
Van der Broeck. Top 5 last year and isn't getting any worse. See Gesink in White though (as above), but can see him losing minutes to VdB in the last week.

Top placed Radioshack rider:
Leipheimer, with an honourable mention to Chris Horner for a) always pulling and b) proving that older doesn't always equal slower. Brajkovic is my tip to crack big time and finish outside top 30.

Most critical stage:
Alp D'Huez. Always. Biased decision here.

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
Vande Velde. Although he's not really a contender. Can see Basso losing minutes in the first week, but that's form/injury not crashing.

TTT top 3:
HTC, Garmin, Sky
Leopard-trek to finish top 5. Without Cancellara they finish bottom 5.

Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
One per kilometer - pretty sure they have a quota to fill.

Gilbert stage wins:
One - in great form but a marked man. He won't make it all of the way to the Alps.

Contador stage wins:
He'll cross the line first once, but come six months from now it'll be zero*. Plus 'giving away' a few more if he's not alone in the last kilometer.
*Disclaimer* I don't think that Contador should be allowed anywhere near this race - or any other race for that matter - after testing positive last year. Can't blame him for the UCI & Spanish federation's incompetence though, so he's here and there isn't anything that we can do about it. But it's immensely frustrating.

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Cavendish. I'm tipping no wins for Greipel because Gilbert/VdB will be the team's focus.

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
Jens Voigt, for two reasons:
German who has an aussie accent
Long live the crazy 200km+ but ultimately-doomed solo breakaway
Honourable mention: all of the crazy domestiques that pace the leaders up the HC climbs.

Least favourite:
Contador/Basso/Petacchi/Vino etc. Get caught once and you're dead to me.
Honourable mention: Not a fan of Cav, but got to respect the man's talent.

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish:
Who? Probably won't finish

 

[Freakie]

Top 5:
Contador
Shleck
Gesink
Evans
Sanchez

Smokey:
Kern

Green Jersey:
Thor. Has proven that he can go searching for points in the hiller stages and will keep racking points up every stage.

Polka Dot Jersey:
Slivan Chavenal, none of the big guns will bother following him.

White Jersey:
Gesink, as others have said well in front of the others (is Kern elgible?)

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Voeckler, he'll be after the polka dot jersey I think. Plus he is pure guts.

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
Van der Broeck, more experience.

Top placed Radioshack rider:
Levi, 9th place.

Most critical stage:
Stage 12

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
I hate to say it but probably Evans, for a MTB rider he sure crashes alot.

TTT top 3:
Leopard Trek, Sky, Garmin

Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
Every 3 minutes

Gilbert stage wins:
Stage 1

Contador stage wins:
1

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Cav 4, Greipel 0

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
Jens, I met him in Adelaide 2 years ago, absolute top guy, coming in a very close second is Bernie Eisel, ripping bloke and awesome sense of humour (got to ride with him at Ballarat last year).

Least favourite:
Levi, can't stand the smug little guy

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish:
141st

 

[Surkin]

Top 5:
1 - Andy Schleck
2 - Alberto Contador
3 - Ivan Basso
4 - Robert Gesink
5 - Frank Schleck

Smokey:
Jakob Fugslang

Green Jersey:
Mark Cavendish

Polka Dot Jersey:
??? A big gun who falls out of GC early. Maybe Samuel Sanchez

White Jersey:
Robert Gesink

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Txurruka

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
Gesink

Top placed Radioshack rider:
Kloden - 7th

Most critical stage:
Stage 12 - Bastille Day!!!

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
Brajkovic

TTT top 3:
HTC, Radioshack, Leopard Trek (if they drop Frank)

Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
183

Gilbert stage wins:
2

Contador stage wins:
0

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
5 and 0

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
Andy Schleck

Least favourite:
Alberto Contador

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish:
Will not finish

 

[harleyrules170]

Top 5:
Andy Schleck
Contador
Sanchez
Basso
Wiggins

Smokey:
Not many this year, but I think Van den Broeck can finish on the podium

Green Jersey:
Cavendish will win easily I think

Polka Dot Jersey:
Peter Velits, because HTC don't have a GC Contender

White Jersey:
Robert Gesink, no chance of anyone else winning unless he has a fall

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Voeckler

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
Will be close but Van den Broeck will finish higher

Top placed Radioshack rider:
Chris Horner

Most critical stage:
Saint Gaudens-Plateau de Beille looks like a huge finish to me

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
Frank Schleck

TTT top 3:
HTC
RadioShack
Sky

Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
266

Gilbert stage wins:
1

Contador stage wins:
0

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Cav 4 vs Greipel 1

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
Voeckler, Casar and Chavanel always seem to be having a go

Least favourite:
Anyone who is really arrogant in the peloton

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz finish:
99th

 

[Spoony]

Top 5:
Contador
Schleck
Gesink
Evans
Sanchez

Smokey:
Wiggins, Roche

Green Jersey:
Cavendish

Polka Dot Jersey:
Vinokourov

White Jersey:
Gesink

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Voeckler

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
Gesink

Top placed Radioshack rider:
Kloden

Most critical stage:
Stage 18

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
Sadly Evans.

TTT top 3:
HTC
Leopard Trek
Radioshak

Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
211

Gilbert stage wins:
1

Contador stage wins:
2

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Cav 4 Greipal 0

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
Thorl, Evans.

Least favourite:
Contador, Levi

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish: 117th

 

[Papa Juggs]

Top 5:
Contador
Shleck
Gesink
Evans
Sanchez

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
Van der Broeck, more experience.

Does not compute

I do think Van Den Broeck (derrrr lol) can finish top5 and ahead of Gesink.

I'm going Kruzinger for the white. Will do my full crystal ball predictions later when I have time to go through the riders more thoroughly.

 

[Papa Juggs]

Give some predictions:

Top 5:
A. Schleck
A. Contador
C. Evans
B. Wiggins
J. Van Den Broeck


Smokey:
D. Cunego

Green Jersey:
M. Cavendish

Polka Dot Jersey:
A. Schleck

White Jersey:
R. Kreuzinger

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Voeckler

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
Van Den Broeck

Top placed Radioshack rider:
A. Kloden


Most critical stage:
The mountains are gonna smash them but it will come down the the TT. Stage 20.

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
None I would hope.

TTT top 3:
HTC
Sky
Garmin


Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
Hopefully they can reach double digits each night.

Gilbert stage wins:
None

Contador stage wins:
None

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Cav will win 4+ easy. Great sprinting team. Greipel none.

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
The old guys that are still hanging around, even Vino the dirty cheat. They still set the benchmark for the younger generation.

Least favourite:
Contador just for leaving andy when his chain fell off. I know it's been discussed at length but I still think it was bad sportsmanship.

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish:
Will not finish

 

[Bond.ShaneBond]

Bigfooty consensus:

Top 5:
Contador
A Schleck
Sanchez
Gesink
Basso/Evans

Smokey:
Cunego/Kern

Green Jersey:
Cavendish

Polka Dot Jersey:
Contador/Vino

White Jersey:
Gesink

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Voeckler

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
4-4, can't be split. Apologies for the spelling.

Top placed Radioshack rider:
Kloden

Most critical stage:
Stage 12

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
Evans

TTT top 3:
HTC
Leopard-Trek
Radioshack

Amount of times Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
Too many times.

Gilbert stage wins:
1.5

Contador stage wins:
1

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Cav in a landslide

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
Jens the only one with multiple votes.

Least favourite:
Contador/Levi

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish:
120ish. Not much faith in the man with only a French language wiki page.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

Give some predictions:

Top 5:
A. Schleck
A. Contador
A. Kloden
I. Basso
B. Wiggins

Smokey:
S. Sanchez

Green Jersey:
T. Hushovd

Polka Dot Jersey:
L. Ten Dam

White Jersey:
R. Kreuzinger

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Voeckler

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
R. Gesink

Top placed Radioshack rider:
A. Kloden


Most critical stage:
Stage 19

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
Gesink always finds away to get in trouble.

TTT top 3:
Leopord Trek
HTC
Garmin Cervelo


Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
Far too many.

Gilbert stage wins:
0

Contador stage wins:
2

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Greipel will win tonight, but Cav will run away with 4 or 5.

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
Nicholas Roache or Sammy Sanchez

Least favourite:
Alberto Contador.

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish:
182nd.

 

[sblack]

Top 5:

Contador
A. Schleck
JVDB
Kloden
Sanchez

Smokey:
Levi

Green Jersey:
Hushovd

Polka Dot Jersey:
Andy Schleck

White Jersey:
Gesink

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Txurruka

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
JVDB

Top placed Radioshack rider:
Levi 7th

Most critical stage:
Alp d'Huez

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
F. Schleck

TTT top 3:
Sky
Radioshack
HTC


Gilbert stage wins:
0

Contador stage wins:
1

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Cav

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
JVDB

Least favourite:
Cancellara

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish:
99

 

[Cruiser23]

Top 5:
Contador
A.Schleck
Van den Broeck
Sanchez
Gesink

Smokey:
Chris Horner/Janez Brajkovic

Green Jersey:
Philippe Gilbert

Polka Dot Jersey:
Andy Schleck

White Jersey:
Robert Gesink

Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Voeckler

Gesink v Van den Broeck:
Van den Broeck

Top placed Radioshack rider:
Chris Horner

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
Robert Gesink

TTT top 3:
Garmin
HTC
Leopard-Trek

Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
Too many...

Gilbert stage wins:
2 Wins

Contador stage wins:
1 Win

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Cavendish

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
Tommy Voeckler

Least favourite:
Bradley Wiggins/Andy Schleck

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish:
He won't finish...

 

[Sasquatch]

Top 5:

Alberto Contador
Andy Schleck
Samuel Sanchez
Jurgen Van Ben Broeck
Robert Gesink

Smokey:
Rein Taaramae - 10th

Green Jersey:
Mark Cavendish

Polka Dot Jersey:
David Moncoutie

White Jersey:
Robert Gesink


Who will get in more breakaways: Voeckler or Txurruka?
Voeckler

Gesink v Van der Broeck:
Van Den Broeck

Top placed Radioshack rider:
Andreas Kloden - 7th

Most critical stage:
Alp d'Huez

Which contender will crash out before the mountains:
Cadel Evans

TTT top 3:
RadioShack
Rabobank
HTC

Amount of time Phil and Paul mention a chateau:
Too many times

Gilbert stage wins:
2

Contador stage wins:
1

Cav v Greipel stage wins:
Cav - 4

Who is your favourite cyclist in this Tour:
Pierre Rolland

Least favourite:
Cadel Evans

Where will Fabrice Jeandesboz(who?) finish:
92nd

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

C*ntador/Cheatador to fold in the final time trial, as there will be no miracle juices in the tank to clinch the crown for him.

Frank Schleck to win alp dhuez.

I would add some comment about being a dirty sp*ck cheat, but I won't, as I do not want to get banned.

 

[Sasquatch]

Lol. Schleck is a cheat too. Why not the anger towards him too?

 

[davis_756]

Lol. Schleck is a cheat too. Why not the anger towards him too?

Mainly because Contador has been caught and Shleck hasn't, 90% of the riders are on something anyways.

I have been wondering to myself if Contador's bad form is simply due to the Giro before the tour or is it because he is to scared to use his sauce after being caught last year.

 

[Vader]

Mainly because Contador has been caught and Shleck hasn't, 90% of the riders are on something anyways.

I have been wondering to myself if Contador's bad form is simply due to the Giro before the tour or is it because he is to scared to use his sauce after being caught last year.

Both.. together with the fact that he's not getting any respect from the peloton or his teammates, so he's having to work a lot harder (burning a lot more energy). Then there's the fact that he's already fallen off the bike 4 times in 9 stages and is reportedly carrying a knee injury as a result.

The funny thing about him getting caught last year is that it was almost an accident. What I believe he did was to inject a bag or two of his own blood, giving him the boost he needed to stay with Schleck on the Tourmalet. Unfortunately for him, the blood in the bag was still contaminated by the clenbuterol he took in order to lose weight after his surprise loss in the Dauphine. Had the team waited another day or two before drawing the blood, the clenbuterol would have been completely out of his system and he wouldn't have been caught. In the end, he's going to go for the clenbuterol, rather than the real offence of transfusing his own blood - mind you, his original use of clenbuterol (out of competition) was also illegal.