List Mgmt. 2013 Draft Discussion

[Metal]

BILLINGS shot to prominence quickly last year when he starred at Vic Metro's NAB AFL Under-18 Championships as a 16-year-old. As one of the youngest in the team, and ineligible for that year's draft, he showed his ability across half-forward with several impressive efforts.

The Oakleigh Charger came into this season with high expectations but had a knee injury he had to manage all year, and one that limited him to three games for Vic Metro. Still, he was named an All Australian for the second straight year and went on to finish the season with the Chargers playing through the midfield before undergoing minor surgery. The 185cm left-footer has played mostly as a half-forward but has all the traits to be a classy and clean midfielder.
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STRENGTHS
With his sticky overhead marking and elite skills on both feet, Billings has a couple of strong weapons that separate him from his peers. As a forward he can take a pack mark as easily as crumb a contest, and through the midfield it's not unusual to see him gather the ball, break away from a stoppage and then deliver the pass. Because his skills are so good, Billings looks like a finisher. But he is more than that: good in traffic, can feed the ball out with quick hands, and seems to always find space. At TAC Cup level, he came back from injury and played strong games, and although under duress with his knee, picked up 26 possessions then followed it with 32.
Top Billings: Chargers gun a star in the making

WEAKNESSES
The 18-year-old will need to build his aerobic base before he becomes a permanent midfielder. It isn't at a bad level but will have to improve to be able to play more consistently around the ball instead of across half-forward. Some may see him as an outside player at this stage of his development but his statistics at the championships – 19 contested possessions, 20 uncontested – show him to be pretty rounded in that area.

PLAYS LIKE
Think Nathan Brown when he was in his prime for the Western Bulldogs and Richmond. Billings is of a similar shape and prowess, and likes to snap goals, push into the midfield, and light games up. Port Adelaide drafted Chad Wingard as a half-forward two years ago at pick No.6 and Billings is equally as strong overhead when the ball is up for grabs.

DRAFT RANGE
Billings is set to be selected inside the top five picks next month. If not, he won't last much longer.

BOTTOM LINE
Billings is a match-winner, a prospect who saves his best for the big moments. With his marking and kicking, he might be the most dynamic player available.​

 

[maddog37]

If we can get a Chad Wingard clone I will wet my pants.

 

[Aldo]

He doesn't sound like the brightest kid when he speaks haha, but he has some serious footy smarts. He's been my favourite at pick 4 all year. Though that was with the belief that Aish would go second.

Would be stoked to get one of the two. Probably leaning towards Aish right now because we know he can play midfield, and being an outside player isn't going to be a huge deal since unlike Melbourne, we've got quality inside guys extracting the ball already.

 

[hatescaptcha]

"Billings is a match-winner, a prospect who saves his best for the big moments" - This statement makes me think we will pick him (if our recruitment staffs thinks the same way). As we have been choosing the kids who can stand up in big games eg: Macrae and Stringer.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I really wish the "professional" write ups weren't so biased. Makes him sound like he has no weaknesses at all apart from a decent but not great endurance base.

This isn't a slight on Billings but to say that he's a complete player apart from his endurance is wrong.

 

[Zgope1]

I really wish the "professional" write ups weren't so biased. Makes him sound like he has no weaknesses at all apart from a decent but not great endurance base.

This isn't a slight on Billings but to say that he's a complete player apart from his endurance is wrong.

I think people are reserving judgement on his endurance due to his body issues this year. he did win a lot of footy for a pretty underprepared player

 

[Super Hans]

If Billings is good enough it doesn't bother me that he can't play midfield. 50+ goal a season medium forwards are worth their weight in gold.

 

[igloo dweller]

I really wish the "professional" write ups weren't so biased. Makes him sound like he has no weaknesses at all apart from a decent but not great endurance base.

This isn't a slight on Billings but to say that he's a complete player apart from his endurance is wrong.

based on write ups only, he seems a polished and classy operator. i think we need the class and finish enough to overlook (accept them for now, work on them later) some deficiencies in prospects such as aish/kelly/billings.

what do you perceive billings' other weaknesses to be? compare and contrast against lennon?

I remember Mark LeCras's season in 2009: Not only did he kick 50 goals, he was kicking them from set-shots, snaps, bananas, and looked so classy & flairy while doing so. West Coast Supporters thought he'd make a seamless transition into the midfield where he'd truly fulfill his potential, but ultimately, it never really worked out, even prior to getting injured. This is the main reason I'm concerned about taking Billings at #4, particularly ahead of Aish

what about billings vs kelly, GB?

 

[Kelvin31]

I really wish the "professional" write ups weren't so biased. Makes him sound like he has no weaknesses at all apart from a decent but not great endurance base.

This isn't a slight on Billings but to say that he's a complete player apart from his endurance is wrong.

Ok. I'm listening. Care to expand on this slightly?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I think people are reserving judgement on his endurance due to his body issues this year. he did win a lot of footy for a pretty underprepared player

That's not my point though; just that these so-called expert write-ups seem to overlook the vast majority of the players' weaknesses - especially in the top end of the draft.

Billings, for example, is quite poor defensively; he doesn't always "run both ways". This isn't to say he never will, but there's always a risk with these types of players. Take a look at Collingwood - that's what happens when you take too many one-way running midfielders. You can't slow the game down when the opposition gets it on their terms and it puts a huge amount of pressure on your defenders.

He's also not as damaging when he's not in space as I'd like a top-four pick to be. All the talk is about how he's a beautiful kick off both sides, and that's indeed true, but when he's pressured or in a contested situation he really isn't that damaging. Compare him to, say, a Macrae - while he can shank a few, he's still just as damaging when he wins his own ball as he is on the outside, which is a great attribute to have and indicates a likely ability to step up at AFL level. Billings doesn't have that. It's not to say he won't step up, but at AFL level he won't have anywhere near as much space as he does in the lower leagues. Again, a risk.

The biggest concern on him in my eyes is whether or not he can transition to the midfield. There's so much talk about "oh he just needs to build his tank and then boom he's a midfielder!" Okay, so if Dickson builds a tank does he become a full-time midfielder? No, he's a natural forward who spends time in the midfield. GB's reference to LeCras above is a good one. Not every classy small-medium forward is cut out for the midfield, and Billings has played very, very little at any level, which should bring out the warning signs.

I'm not saying that Billings is a bad pick, nor am I saying that we should pass judgement on his endurance; just that these write-ups are so incredibly biased and that I wish it was different. Low-quality (and quantity) draftee information plagues the league and it's frustrating. They've improved this year but there's still a lot to work on.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Also just to add to that - weaknesses of the top players seem almost taboo in the wider football community and that might be part of the cause of the strength-heavy write-ups. Whenever someone highlights a weakness of a player it's seen to be a direct criticism of the player on the whole and a 'do not touch' message. I could write a lot more on Billings' strengths than I have on his weaknesses above, for example, and by no means would I be pissed off at the club if we took him.

 

[doggies ftw]

If Billings is good enough it doesn't bother me that he can't play midfield. 50+ goal a season medium forwards are worth their weight in gold.

This. It's like some people around here want 30 complete, all rounded, inside/outside mids on the list. If worst case scenario for Billings is we have a Gia replacement for the next 10 years I'll take that and he can just be another one to add to our very dynamic forward line.

Really warming to Billings, glad to see he racked up some big numbers in the psd too. And interesting that he has grown to 185cm now. Still think we will get one of Billings/Kelly and I will be absolutely rapt with one of them. These guys are top picks for a reason!

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

This. It's like some people around here want 30 complete, all rounded, inside/outside mids on the list.

This is somewhat my point though. Just because I say that player X isn't an inside/outside midfielder doesn't mean I'm saying we should pick an inside/outside midfielder, just like me saying player X is a ruthless tough ball winner doesn't mean I'm saying to pick a ruthless tough ball winner.

My 'midfield' concern on Billings isn't because I have some overarching, "Midfielders should be taken before medium forwards," concept. It's because, should it be known that he'll never transition to the midfield, I don't think he'd be rated a top five pick. If a medium forward was a better player than an "inside/outside mid", to use your example, then I'd take the medium forward. I just think that a lot of the fuss about Billings is due to his potential in the midfield - which we've seen nothing of. If he does transition there he could be one of the best of the draft - if he doesn't I'm concerned he won't be the 'elite' medium forward everyone seems to think he will be, due to his other limitations. I could be wrong but it's just my opinion.

 

[stefoid]

If we can get a Chad Wingard clone I will wet my pants.

Me too. I will wet your pants.

Wingard probably quicker though. Port did very, very well there.

 

[stefoid]

Me too. I will wet your pants.

Wingard probably quicker though. Port did very, very well there.

Still happy with one of Kelly , Aish or Billings.

 

[doggies ftw]

This is somewhat my point though. Just because I say that player X isn't an inside/outside midfielder doesn't mean I'm saying we should pick an inside/outside midfielder, just like me saying player X is a ruthless tough ball winner doesn't mean I'm saying to pick a ruthless tough ball winner.

My 'midfield' concern on Billings isn't because I have some overarching, "Midfielders should be taken before medium forwards," concept. It's because, should it be known that he'll never transition to the midfield, I don't think he'd be rated a top five pick. If a medium forward was a better player than an "inside/outside mid", to use your example, then I'd take the medium forward. I just think that a lot of the fuss about Billings is due to his potential in the midfield - which we've seen nothing of. If he does transition there he could be one of the best of the draft - if he doesn't I'm concerned he won't be the 'elite' medium forward everyone seems to think he will be, due to his other limitations. I could be wrong but it's just my opinion.

Yeah I wasn't talking about you Dann just in general, IMO our midfield is our strong point so if we feel we are better off going a forward/defender I'll back us in to make a good selection.

With billings I don't think he has too many weaknesses as a pure forward, could maybe be a bit more defensive but that will be drilled into him from day one at the club. I honestly think that if he doesn't transition to the midfield he still has the attributes to be an elite forward. And as we all know if he does make the transition he could be very very good. I wish he got a full uninjured season this year would have been interesting to see how he went with more midfield time but it is good to hear he played a few good games there in the tac late in the season.

 

[Super Hans]

Billings would leave our forward line pretty dangerous for the future.

Hunter--------Goddard*-----Crameri
Dahlhaus-------Jones-------Billings

Stringer could also go up there too.

*could be any off the KPF we should have at our pick next year.

 

[stefoid]

Would anyone who has seen Billings play say he is similar to Hunter? Thats how it seems to me from the media.

 

[murphy's twin]

Billings would leave our forward line pretty dangerous for the future.

Hunter--------Goddard*-----Crameri
Dahlhaus-------Jones-------Billings

Stringer could also go up there too.

*could be any off the KPF we should have at our pick next year.

Or what about this for next year

FF Grant Stringer Dal
HF Crameri Jones Billings

With Campbell, hunter and Gia to rotate

 

[glenashley]

Last year I don't think many were surprised to hear Stringer and Macrae's name called out. This year it could be one of about half a dozen names called.

 

[murphy's twin]

Or what about this for next year

FF Grant Stringer Dal
HF Crameri Jones Billings

With Campbell, hunter and Gia to rotate

I love how smart that forward line is.

 

[Mofra]

Would anyone who has seen Billings play say he is similar to Hunter? Thats how it seems to me from the media.

Comparisons seem to be either a Bartel who gets less of the ball, or the HF version of Higgins.

 

[boydsno1]

Boyd has always been my first choice but i would be very happy if we can get Either Aish or Billings with pick 4. If we snatch side show Brown late then it will be an awesome draft.

 

[Kelvin31]

Last year I don't think many were surprised to hear Stringer and Macrae's name called out. This year it could be one of about half a dozen names called.

I was. I thought we'd grab Ollie for sure. But I'm very happy we got Jack and Jake.

I spoke to Macca at an event one day a few months ago about Wines and he said that Clay Smith fitted the simalar mould to Ollie, and would have been pointless getting simalar players two years in a row. He went on to say that Macrae will be a "beauty" and in the short term it will appear Wines is better.....but not in the long term.

.

 

[Reptilia]

I feel like we need to add more to out defence.. Not only on the half back line but other spots too.

Right now in our defence who look to be quality and are young are: Roughead, Talia, JJ. ( I can't remember anyone else).

So you would think that we would have to bring some relatively young lock down defender etc as well as a half back.. Our forward line atm seems full of fire power.