List Mgmt. 2013 Draft Discussion

[Chris Grant]

Two of those are on my list - Cutler I'm not a big fan of. Vandeleur is near the top, and Sicily is up there on talent but not really needs.

What's your thoughts on Karpany? Noticed he's moved up into top 30 calculations. I thought he looked better then Wilson on what I saw.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

What's your thoughts on Karpany? Noticed he's moved up into top 30 calculations. I thought he looked better then Wilson on what I saw.

He's on the list, but top 30 is a stretch in my opinion. 40-60 is his range I'd have thought, but he'll get picked up.

 

[Dogma84]

Heard this morning that we are really impressed with Daniel McStay. Maybe at 42

 

[Chris Grant]

He's on the list, but top 30 is a stretch in my opinion. 40-60 is his range I'd have thought, but he'll get picked up.

Fair enough. I can see it happening personally.

I don't get the Apeness first round call which is being reported however. I wouldn't take him in the top 30 even if I was desperate for a ruck.

 

[Kony Abbott]

I still want Thorp! - another dangerous forward. Why not?

Does not fit in with the culture Macca is trying to build

 

[Kony Abbott]

J.Marsh doesn't seem to be rated much on this board, but surely we'd be mad not to take him with #42 in a shallow draft. he kicks it a bit too high but he has serious pace and good hands...

 

[Aldo]

J.Marsh doesn't seem to be rated much on this board, but surely we'd be mad not to take him with #42 in a shallow draft. he kicks it a bit too high but he has serious pace and good hands...

I think the reason he isn't talked up much is because there is close to no chance he can reach pick 42. I think he'll go first round. One of my favourite players in this draft, but not worth pick 4.

 

[TBOW]

Heard this morning that we are really impressed with Daniel McStay. Maybe at 42

Reckon he'll be well & truly gone by 42.
But who knows...

 

[Aldo]

Correct me if Im wrong but didn't Stringer play midfield before he broke his leg?

I heard he played predominantly midfield as a 16 year old. He was also in the same team as Ollie Wines and was considered to be significantly better at the time, in fact someone mentioned that he was already Bendigo's best player as a 16 year old. Apparently he had Judd-like explosiveness and acceleration from the contest back then. Obviously lost a lot of that with the injury, but the idea that he could get it back is pretty exciting.

 

[TBOW]

Two of those are on my list - Cutler I'm not a big fan of. Vandeleur is near the top, and Sicily is up there on talent but not really needs.

Miller, Cutler & Sicily are the 3 that I really like around that pick.
Shame that Miller got nabbed.
I see Sicily & Cutler as a bit of Billings & Scharenberg 2.0.
Would be pretty happy with either.

 

[TBOW]

Another guy I like the look of but haven't heard much about is Louis Herbert.

 

[Kony Abbott]

It's gotta be Billings we take at 4 if he's available. At worse this kid is a faster Giansiracusa. At best he's Brad Johnson who pushes into the midfield more, or hell even Cotchin if he makes the transition to the midfield.

No doubt he'd be a quality player, it seems like St.Kilda are right into him for pick 3 though.

 

[Chris Grant]

Another guy I like the look of but haven't heard much about is Louis Herbert.

I like him too and I think he would be a good option at our last pick if available. Good athleticsm, disposal, works hard and is clean.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Won't have made many friends with this pick but my reasoning is there for all to see.

Pick 42 - Western Bulldogs: Cameron Conlon​

Height: 198cm​

Weight: 87kg​

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General Comments: If you're a Bulldogs supporter and you've gotten this far into my write-up without having a heart attack, congratulations. I can hear it now - "Did you take him to keep Williams and Higgins company in rehab for the next eternity?" Perhaps even a, "Are you mad? We don't even know where his football is at!" Although I think most on the Dogs board know how keen I am on Conlon, so it shouldn't come as too much of a shock. While I am extracting the urine with the above comments, they are completely valid arguments against Conlon's selection, and this is a pick I don't expect many to agree with - especially if you're a Bulldogs supporter. Realistically, however, my decision is simple. I've toyed around with some other players at this pick - which I won't disclose because I'd jump on any of them if they were available at my next pick - but the facts are simple. Conlon is by far the highest reward player likely to be available at this pick. Without his injuries, he was on his way to a top 20, maybe even top five selection if he was played up forward. Yes, his injuries pose a risk and this is by no means a safe pick. Completely acknowledge that. However, I just can't shake the feeling that most of the players I've considered here are players I'd take in the fourth round in previous years. As everybody knows, this is a shallow draft - and while this isn't, by itself, a reason to take such a risk, it absolutely contributes. Players taken here in this draft particularly mostly have low ceilings. I'll discuss this in more detail later, however, I feel like the Dogs are on their way to building some decent midfield depth, so it made sense to take such a high ceiling option, even if it does pose a risk. There is simply too much upside to pass on. He will be by far the biggest steal of the draft if he reaches what he's capable of - and if he doesn't, he goes in a range where most picks will likely be busts anyway. It's a risk - but a calculated one.​

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Strengths: He's tall. Boy is he tall. Even in today's game, a 198cm key forward is a rarity - and a 198cm key forward with the combination of strength and mobility that Conlon has is practically nonexistent. Cam is rarely beaten one on one, and when you add to this both an ability to lead to the contest deceptively well and his brilliant leap then you have something really tough to match up on. Add into that his size and he's a nightmare for key defenders and opposition coaches alike. He's nowhere close to a similar player so bear with me on this comparison, but the difficulty a defender will have competing with him is similar to a Jarrad Grant type. If you put a smaller guy who is capable of nullifying his athleticism and leading ability on him, then you're really going to struggle in one on one contests and in the air. If you put a bigger guy on him to nullify his marking and leaping ability, you're going to sacrifice that athleticism. He's one of those, "Clear out the forward line and let him handle it," types because when he's got options he's near impossible to defend unless you double team him - something that, should he ever reach his potential, will need to happen in my view. Have you ever seen a guy who's almost 200cm sidestep a midfielder in action? Well that's what you get from Conlon. It's freakish.​

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He is incredibly clean at ground level for his size, and while he'll never outdo an in and under 180cm midfielder around the ground, he's the kind of 198cm giant that you wouldn't mind being around the contest - of course, though, that's not where you'll have him ideally. I've noticed that several people have likened him a little to a much taller version of Jarred Brennan, and while it's not exactly a reasonable comparison I do see flashes of it. He can do some really incredible things and is the kind of player who sells tickets because there simply aren't many similar players around. It's not just the flashes of brilliance that made me take him here though - it's his ability to compete no matter who he's up against, no matter what he's forced to do, no matter how unlikely whatever he's trying to do is. He's the kind of guy that would chase Lewis Jetta all the way across the ground despite having absolutely no chance if he needed to.​

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This hard work is a brilliant attribute for a key forward to have. You look at Liam Jones when he's taking big grabs and slotting goals and think, "Wow, this kid could be something," then you look at him when he doesn't take them and think, "Is he going to do anything?" This second effort comes completely naturally to Conlon and it's a superb characteristic when combined with how strong he is in the air and on the lead. There are midfielders who don't work as hard as Conlon does, and that's truly remarkable.​

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His set shot is another element of his game that I would place well and truly above average. He has a nice technique, a good ball drop and the testicular fortitude to kick the big goals and lift his team when it's needed, and this alludes to the next positive on my list: his character. From all accounts, despite his injuries he's continued to work hard, get stuck into his rehab and really push himself. He also displays this on the field, with his leadership seemingly very good.​

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But wait, there's more - he's a very capable tap ruckman. His leap, combined with his ability to read the ball - and of course, his strength in the contest - makes him a formidable backup ruckman and someone you wouldn't mind relying on in the ruck. I'd play him mostly forward, but if he was forced to ruck for most of the game I wouldn't be stressing about the contest.​

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I could go on, but I think I'll leave it there because my man-crush is showing. Here's a tl;dr: tall, big leap, great hands, rucks well, excellent burst of speed, brilliant one on one, reads the ball and the play well, great set shot, athletic, works very hard and seems to have a very good character.​

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What He Needs To Work On: Now if you're someone who doesn't follow the draft, I imagine you're questioning how on Earth somebody like Conlon has dropped all the way to pick 42. I probably sound a little like a real recruiter after picking up average player X at pick 372 - "We're very happy to have X on board; we rated him as a genuine top 5 prospect but were lucky enough to get him in the 21st round." Regardless, there is a very good reason why he's slipped. Injuries.​

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Conlon had a very good 2012 as a bottom ager, impressing recruiters and draft watchers alike. Heading into 2013, he was viewed by some as being up there with Boyd in the KPP stocks this year. However, he suffered a variety of injuries - including a horrible knee dislocation suffered in the gym - and hasn't been able to play at all this year (somebody correct me on this if I'm wrong - may have played a few that I've missed). This raises a few questions.​

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Firstly, is his body just not up to the rigours of footy? The amount of injuries he's had in a short period of time should raise a lot of concern and doubt in those thinking about selecting him. Players like Daniel Menzel, Max Bailey and Tom Williams have had similar amounts of injuries in a short period of time. One of them is now retired, and the other two's future careers are in doubt. There is a chance that his body just can't cope with the physicality and exertion required in AFL football - and if this is so, then he's not going to live up to his potential or anywhere close to it.​

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Secondly, where is his footy actually at? Some players that are heavily favoured the year before their draft year fade into relative obscurity, having peaked early, while others come from nowhere and genuinely contend with those early favourites. So is Conlon an example of an early peaker? Could he have contended with Boyd as the number one KPP prospect this year, or would he have remained at last year's level? That's still nothing to scoff at, but he wouldn't be rated as highly as he is.​

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Because of injuries, he's going to be a long-term prospect. Clubs shouldn't expect him to stand and deliver from year one and will likely take a couple to get his endurance and strength back up to scratch, but should he stay injury-free, there's nothing really stopping him from doing so.​

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Another issue is that last year he played mostly in the ruck due to the shortage at the Knights. As a ruckman, he's a nice prospect - but nothing insanely good like a Naitanui was in his draft year. Every time he went forward he looked like a great prospect, but you can't extrapolate completely from that small sample size and say that he'll be a superb key forward for many years to come. If you're taking him as a forward, you're taking him on partially evident form, and then making up the rest based on that.​

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I'd also like to see him work on his field kicking and a few other tidbits, but they're only very minor.​

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How He Fits: I'm not sure I need to tell anybody that the Dogs need a key forward. If they can get a young key forward in the next few years, as well as a couple of other bits and pieces, they're absolutely on the right track in their rebuild. The midfield is really starting to come along, but we still lack that big 'bail out' option. Campbell showed a bit this year, absolutely - however, a majority of Dogs supporters see him as a future #1 ruckman post-Minson, due to his very good tap work and ability to read the play (demonstrated in the ridiculous Gia 'alley-oop' goal off a Campbell tap). This is where Conlon becomes a very good option. With a Campbell/Conlon combination, we have a pairing that are both solid in the ruck and solid up forward, allowing us to rotate them whenever necessary and give us different dynamics. Although it's not ideal, the fact that Conlon is a long-term prospect also plays into our hands. It allows us to develop him while still getting games into Campbell, and - if all goes to plan - by the time Minson retires, both Campbell and Conlon will be ready to play their roles together. While he's far from a quick fix, a future forward line of Conlon, Jones, Crameri and Grant is starting to look both dangerous and difficult to match up on. Combine this with the pickup of speed, class and skill through the midfield in Aish and we'll be adding two young players who could be anything, in the roles we need them in.​

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Conlon is one of the highest risk players in the draft - but he's also one of the highest reward players. He was simply too good to pass up on, and while this pick will divide opinion, I just couldn't pass the opportunity up.​

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I don't get the Apeness first round call which is being reported however. I wouldn't take him in the top 30 even if I was desperate for a ruck.

Agree on Apeness. Not a fan. If he's there at 60 I'd consider him but not at any of our earlier picks.

Another guy I like the look of but haven't heard much about is Louis Herbert.

Yeah, I'm a fan of Herbert. Was last year as well and he's just continued his improvement. I'd take him over a lot of guys in the 40-60 range's possibilities.

 

[igloo dweller]

Won't have made many friends with this pick but my reasoning is there for all to see.

...can't fault your argument. i agree that the later picks this year may as well be 'miss big' or 'win big'

i get the feeling his durability is gonna make tommy williams seem like jimmy stynes though. i hope for this talented kid's sake i'm wrong, and if i'm wrong, i hope your pick is phophetic.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

...can't fault your argument. i agree that the later picks this year may as well be 'miss big' or 'win big'

i get the feeling his durability is gonna make tommy williams seem like jimmy stynes though. i hope for this talented kid's sake i'm wrong, and if i'm wrong, i hope your pick is phophetic.

It's absolutely a possibility - the difference is that Williams was taken in the top ten and Conlon was taken in the third round despite having the talent of an early first round. When - not if, but when; I'm pretty confident somebody will take him - somebody calls out his name there's going to be a period of surprise and shock, but after the dust settles everybody will realise how excellent that selection was. I don't have my draft hit-and-miss documents in front of me to check the stats but I imagine that most drafts - especially those similar to this year's - have a very low hit rate. Given that, I just felt that this risk was more acceptable than usual.

Also, my love of Conlon is pretty well-known on this board, but I will say that it was a much closer and harder decision than it may seem on the surface. I wasn't going to take him last night but when I woke up this morning it was a different story. My choice was grounded down to a selection from six: Tom Vandeleur, Jake Kolodjashnij, Cameron Conlon, James Sicily, Michael Karpanny and Alex Spina. It wasn't an easy choice to make at all.

If anybody has any issues with the pick blame Igloo - I tried to get him to talk me out of it and all I got was, "Don't take Conlon."

 

[Igloo]

When I get home there is a gif coming for you, Dannnnnnnnnn.

On topic, I see Herbert as more of a rookie prospect. I don't mind him, but not someone I'd actively target.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

When I get home there is a gif coming for you, Dannnnnnnnnn.

It's one declaring your love for Conlon and me for taking him, I bet.

 

[footyfan000001]

Does not fit in with the culture Macca is trying to build

I thought he's pulled his head in well and truly? We are still heavily linked to him, as well as the Blues.

 

[yebiga]

Dannn
Reading your description of Conlon, I too fell in love.
A lot of his highlights appear to be from last season, as one of his team mates appears to be our Hrovat.
Any chance he lasts till pick 60?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Dannn
Reading your description of Conlon, I too fell in love.
A lot of his highlights appear to be from last season, as one of his team mates appears to be our Hrovat.
Any chance he lasts till pick 60?

There's a chance, just as there's a chance he doesn't get picked up at all and just as there's a chance he goes in the first 30. It's very much a game of chicken with Conlon - it's not a matter of where he should go, it's a matter of who the first club to blink is.

 

[Igloo]

If anybody has any issues with the pick blame Igloo - I tried to get him to talk me out of it and all I got was, "Don't take Conlon."

As promised...

 

[doggies ftw]

Love the Conlon pick Dannn, could be an absolute gun if he can stay fit and really besides his knee this year I can't remember him having too many other injuries. Compliments our other forwards really well and like you said the Campbell/Conlon duo would be absolutely awesome. I hope we take the chance at 42 and I think there's a very good chance we do if he's there!

 

[House_of_Dahl]

If Ben Brown and Conlon are both available who is the preference? http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-10-20/ben-brown

Similar gap. Conlon perhaps higher potential, Brown lower risk.