List Mgmt. 2014 Draft Discussion

[Wizard17]

http://boundforglorynews.com/2014-draft-profile-dan-howe/

Dan Howe (Murray Bushrangers)

Height: 191 cm
Weight: 84 kg
Position: Defender
Strengths: Reading the play, decision making, speed and acceleration
Weaknesses: Shutting down an opponent
Player comparison: Tom Langdon

Dan Howe may not have been a familiar name heading into this season but he is doing his best to make sure you remember it on draft day. The 19-year-old Bushranger, who returned as an overager this year after injury and private school commitments cruelled his season last year, has had a blistering start to the season for both the Murray and Vic Country sides.

Howe is a versatile player who has played at both ends of the ground and in the midfield in his two years with the Bushrangers. While Howe gained some attention from Richmond last year as a tall forward, it is in the backline where he has excelled this year. Howe is a very smart footballer who reads the flight of the ball really well. He knows where the ball is going to drop and protects it well with his body. He floats across the backline, effortlessly cutting off potentially dangerous attacks and plucks the ball out of the air before moving it on swiftly with a quick switch.

Howe doesn’t dwell on the ball and is a good, quick decision maker. He takes a mark and he assesses his options in a split second before delivering it, usually switching to release a running player with a neat kick. Because of this he rarely has to bomb the ball down the line, and allows quick and effective ball movement, starting off many scoring chains. His disposal is clean and he makes few errors but this is mainly due to the lack of risk he takes in his kicking. He is not going to take on a forward and tuck the ball under his arm and break the lines, delivering a 55-metre pass to the leading centre half forward, but you know that the ball is safe in his hands and won’t get turned over.

Howe is by no means a boring player. He has a bit of x-factor as shown with his hanger against Western Australia in round four of the Championships. Howe rose above the shoulders of his opponent and pulled down a one-handed mark that Jeremy Howe would be proud of before quickly firing off a handpass to a running player.

Whilst he doesn’t tend to provide a lot of run and carry off half back, Howe is by no means slow. He has a good turn of pace, particularly over five metres. He uses this pace to beat his man to loose balls and to take two or three quick steps to get out of trouble before delivering the footy to a teammate. I feel he could play on some bigger forwards and take them out of the game, rather than playing as a defensive sweeper without a man. Despite being undersized for a centre half back his closing speed could be very effective, as not many forwards would get away from Howe with his combination of speed, athleticism and superb work rate.

Howe has showed this year that he has the potential to move into the midfield, playing a key role in the Bushrangers win over Sandringham. With Nathan Drummond going down injured, the Bushrangers needed somebody to step up and Howe delivered with a 22-possession, three-tackle and one-goal game. What is more impressive is that he went at 72% disposal efficiency, which is very good for a midfielder and emphasised his elite decision making and clean skills.

Although Howe won’t go in the first round of the draft, his performances for Vic Country and Murray Bushrangers should see him in contention for a mid-to-late draft selection. He doesn’t have the upside of his more talented teammate Caleb Marchbank but he is a low risk proposition who could go straight into a team’s backline and play a role, much like Tom Langdon.

 

[Wizard17]

Is Ahern too rich for pick 6 or 7?

He'd be at our second around 26-27

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

He'd be at our second around 26-27

i thought he might be, thats why i asked.

 

[doggies ftw]

St Kilda need to replace Riewoldt with a key forward.

Brisbane the same with Brown.

Melbourne need to replace Frawley/Clark - Hogan is there but they'll look to add someone else also.

Carlton .. well.... we need to replace just about everybody, I think we could go either way at our pick depending on whos on the board still.

Yeah no doubt those teams could use KPFs but I think definitely Melbourne and probably even St Kilda and Carlton need mids/defenders just as much. I get that Wright/McCartin are universally rated as the best in the draft (although its sort of starting to sound like they may not be that far ahead of everyone, and probably not on the same level as some of the KPFs drafted high in recent years). But I'm just saying that hypothetically if those clubs recruiters think that Petrecca/Durdin etc have a higher ceiling, they're not in the position to be drafting Wright/McCartin just because they are KPFs and should be taking who they think is best available. Of course that could be McCartin/Wright though and if thats the case then yeah they will take them. Just wondering if maybe, depending on how the rest of the year turns out, just maybe one of those guys slip but even still if you finish below us then they probably wouldn't get past you.

I think you guys will finish ahead of us. Our most 'winnable' games in our run home are Richmond at the G and Melbourne at Etihad. Apart from that, the rest of the teams we play are probably still in finals contention (West Coast being the lowest on the ladder of those teams). You guys have St. Kilda and GWS from memory, both pretty winnable.

The one reason we may go midfielder as our first pick is if we commit to Hammelman as our second or third round pick, and we really rate someone like Weller (less homesick factor) or a Brayshaw/Petracca.

That being said, I suspect we'll go tall with our first pick.

Yeah it could probably go either way between who finishes higher out of us. Yeah true that would make sense, still can't see you passing on one of McCartin/Wright though, you're building a very nice crop of smalls and admittedly I don't know a whole heap about who you have coming through but from the outside it looks like a tall forward to replace Browny would be your biggest need? Wright would make perfect sense as that huge forward who will at the very least make a contest every time bringing the ball down for your very dangerous small forwards, and would make a fantastic combo with Leunberger in the ruck.

 

[Hrovat24]

Let's just say dalrymple with find us a gem , unless he does what he did in his first year and take Howard at pick 15

 

[JasRulz63]

Yeah it could probably go either way between who finishes higher out of us. Yeah true that would make sense, still can't see you passing on one of McCartin/Wright though, you're building a very nice crop of smalls and admittedly I don't know a whole heap about who you have coming through but from the outside it looks like a tall forward to replace Browny would be your biggest need? Wright would make perfect sense as that huge forward who will at the very least make a contest every time bringing the ball down for your very dangerous small forwards, and would make a fantastic combo with Leunberger in the ruck.

Yeah, biggest need is probably a quality key forward. We have quite a few key forwards that might make it but won't be stars like Close (who had a good game on Saturday) and Freeman. Then there's Paine and Lisle who I don't think will make it.

Quality midfielder would still be nice though. Against Fremantle, the ball went into our forward 50, 17 times. You can still have the best forward line in the league, but if it's going in there 17 times, then you won't kick a winning score.

 

[Dav1d]

Yeah, biggest need is probably a quality key forward. We have quite a few key forwards that might make it but won't be stars like Close (who had a good game on Saturday) and Freeman. Then there's Paine and Lisle who I don't think will make it.

Quality midfielder would still be nice though. Against Fremantle, the ball went into our forward 50, 17 times. You can still have the best forward line in the league, but if it's going in there 17 times, then you won't kick a winning score.

you had a very young midfield though, going against Fremantle didn't you though? and will be getting Rich back next season

I actually thought Durdin might be a good fit, because he can play forward or back and what is Freeman like?
more likely to make it as a FF or CHF? Plus your recruiters might rate Hammelmann pretty highly

i thought he might be, thats why i asked.

he could go in the first round, but not top 10
just had a very solid championships
don't buy into the hype

 

[doggies ftw]

Yeah, biggest need is probably a quality key forward. We have quite a few key forwards that might make it but won't be stars like Close (who had a good game on Saturday) and Freeman. Then there's Paine and Lisle who I don't think will make it.

Quality midfielder would still be nice though. Against Fremantle, the ball went into our forward 50, 17 times. You can still have the best forward line in the league, but if it's going in there 17 times, then you won't kick a winning score.

Yeah thats true, fingers crossed you take a mid

 

[JasRulz63]

you had a very young midfield though, going against Fremantle didn't you though? and will be getting Rich back next season

I actually thought Durdin might be a good fit, because he can play forward or back and what is Freeman like?
more likely to make it as a FF or CHF? Plus your recruiters might rate Hammelmann pretty highly

It was a very young midfield, but I think that's more by necessity. The only differences between the midfield that played Freo and the one that beat North is Lester (47 games) and Aish in for Robertson and O'Brien, so it was a slightly more experienced midfield against North, but not hugely so.

I reckon GWS might have their eye on Durdin to play as a tall defender, especially if they were to lose Jaksch. I reckon we're OK for tall defenders at the moment. McStay came in for his first came on the weekend in place of Gardiner who was given a rest, and we have Bourke going well in the reserves, and Lisle is back there too. Clarke is coming along nicely as well.

I think Freeman will fill more the CHF role because he has a good endurance base, similar to Brown back in the day. I watched Hammelman play yesterday, and I really liked the look of him. Seems to lead up well, and looks like he'll be able to put some bulk on. Being a Queenslander will help given the 'go home 5'.

Wouldn't mind Pickett just to see what kind of damage he could do with Taylor, Zorko and Green

 

[Super Hans]

Reminds me a lot of Trent Cotchin in that video.

 

[Dav1d]

Reminds me a lot of Trent Cotchin in that video.

I've thought that to, never watched Cotchin play as a junior though
but Duggan looks like a smooth mover & I've seen him win a tonne of the ball at TAC
not sure how ready he'd be to play AFL though, if he tested real well for endurance
would make him pretty tempting

 

[Dav1d]

wow
christian petracca playing basketball, can just see his burst speed

 

[Zgope1]

I think if Petracca got to us we'd be counting our lucky stars. Rolls Royce if i ever did see one.

Think Goddards looking a ready made key back at AFL level, pending personality/character.

Ahern is a gem, would be surprised if he slipped outside the top 25.

looking forward to seeing these championships games, been in the wilderness

 

[doggies ftw]

Yeah anyone know when the replays are up?

 

[True Dog]

I think if Petracca got to us we'd be counting our lucky stars. Rolls Royce if i ever did see one.

Think Goddards looking a ready made key back at AFL level, pending personality/character.

Ahern is a gem, would be surprised if he slipped outside the top 25.

looking forward to seeing these championships games, been in the wilderness

I couldn't agree more... In fact I think he'll go top 3 and wouldn't surprise me if he's the top dog...

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

In my humble and uneducated opinion Petracca is the better of the two... I see him capable of playing multiple positions on the ground and being really good at all of them......Good luck to the side that gets him I reckon (have I mentioned I hope it's us)

The only issue I have with Petracca is that I'm not sure how much of his current skillset will transition to senior AFL.

I think he uses his size to his advantage at the moment, however that physical advantage will be taken away at AFL level. Couple this with the fact that I find him to be very one-paced, and one sided (as good as his right leg is.... I've never see him go onto his left).

Would be pleased with he or Brayshaw though.

 

[Zgope1]

The only issue I have with Petracca is that I'm not sure how much of his current skillset will transition to senior AFL.

I think he uses his size to his advantage at the moment, however that physical advantage will be taken away at AFL level. Couple this with the fact that I find him to be very one-paced, and one sided (as good as his right leg is.... I've never see him go onto his left).

Would be pleased with he or Brayshaw though.

i think that's a misconception about Petracca. He's ranked in the top 1 or 2% in the speed agility test. Basically thunders through traffic. Also has a solid beep and a great contested grab. In other words- the kids a thoroughbred

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

i think that's a misconception about Petracca. He's ranked in the top 1 or 2% in the speed agility test. Basically thunders through traffic. Also has a solid beep and a great contested grab. In other words- the kids a thoroughbred

really?

 

[igloo dweller]

The only issue I have with Petracca is that I'm not sure how much of his current skillset will transition to senior AFL.

I think he uses his size to his advantage at the moment, however that physical advantage will be taken away at AFL level. Couple this with the fact that I find him to be very one-paced, and one sided (as good as his right leg is.... I've never see him go onto his left).

Would be pleased with he or Brayshaw though.

i really appreciate your insights.

i do think it's tough on well-developed kids - annually, they get queries over 'do they dominate just because of their size' at U18 level, 'will it translate to afl level'. the quick kids don't seem to get the same qestions asked about their ability to find space and run, even though everyone is fitter and quicker and structures are more formalised at the next level. it's perplexing.

i think that the high-end, top tier guys who are bigger and stronger than their peers at 17-18 (jon brown, hawkins, wines, mccartin, petracca) tend to go on and be good players who are big and strong at the higher levels. their size is just a part of what makes them good.

the guys without the top level talent, but who do have physical size advantages at under age level might draw a few more questions marks (tom bell - jury is out, mitch hahn - made it). their size tends to be the cornerstone of why they are good.

i think the blues would lean towards brayshaw if they were the only two players on the board. more runs on the board as a pure midfielder. if talent levels were identical, would you forsee your mob going with a KPP or midfielder?

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

i really appreciate your insights.

i do think it's tough on well-developed kids - annually, they get queries over 'do they dominate just because of their size' at U18 level, 'will it translate to afl level'. the quick kids don't seem to get the same qestions asked about their ability to find space and run, even though everyone is fitter and quicker and structures are more formalised at the next level. it's perplexing.

i think that the high-end, top tier guys who are bigger and stronger than their peers at 17-18 (jon brown, hawkins, wines, mccartin, petracca) tend to go on and be good players who are big and strong at the higher levels. their size is just a part of what makes them good.

the guys without the top level talent, but who do have physical size advantages at under age level might draw a few more questions marks (tom bell - jury is out, mitch hahn - made it). their size tends to be the cornerstone of why they are good.

i think the blues would lean towards brayshaw if they were the only two players on the board. more runs on the board as a pure midfielder. if talent levels were identical, would you forsee your mob going with a KPP or midfielder?

Good post.

I especially agree with the bolded, I think sometimes we do undersell players given their size and classification as a man-child... I did the same thing last year with Dunstan.

I guess I should have learned my lesson from back in 2005, when I declared that Shannon Hurn's size dominance in the juniors would only allow for him to be an average player at AFL level, I guess at the time we didn't see any scope for improvement, but as you stated, the best always find a way to get better and meet the bar even when it's set higher at AFL level.

The trade period will ultimately determine how my club uses our first round pick (#5/#6). If talent level's are identical, we'd definitely be going tall purely for list structure. However, if we manage to secure a half decent KPP during the trade period (Jaksch) we may be inclined to go best available (midfielder).. because in reality, there's holes all throughout our list.

 

[Zgope1]

i think that's a misconception about Petracca. He's ranked in the top 1 or 2% in the speed agility test. Basically thunders through traffic. Also has a solid beep and a great contested grab. In other words- the kids a thoroughbred

yep. they mentioned it on the broadcast for the VM v WA game. They mentioned that it's the Stephen Hill type strength to move through traffic extremely quickly. Obviously Hill's got a quicker 60m in him though

 

[doggies ftw]

yep. they mentioned it on the broadcast for the VM v WA game. They mentioned that it's the Stephen Hill type strength to move through traffic extremely quickly. Obviously Hill's got a quicker 60m in him though

Geez didn't realise he had that to his game too. Would love him at our pick! Don't reckon his strength against bigger people in the afl will be a problem either. Some people just have it, look at Stringer. From day one has manhandled players in the AFL, and looks like he always will

 

[Dogsman16]

Geez I was against drafting another inside mid but Petrecca is just super quality. I think its far more important that quality mids have that first 5 or ten steps with extreme speed rather than jetta/hill 60-100m speed. Geelong had some great midfielders often spill to the flanks such as Bartel, Kelly and even chapman. I get the feeling that if Petracca lasts to our pick then really apart from McCartin or Wright still being their then we just have to take him. He's ready to go come round 1 next year, probably as a half forward with spurts in the middle.

If we get him it probably means thats some of our quality youngsters won't play much midfield time at all such as Hunter who will predominatetly spend time forward. Even Dahlhaus won't get much time and that just equates to more goals kicked.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Yeah I know we want/need a KPF - but Petrecca looks too good to pass up if he is there at our pick.

 

[Dav1d]

Yeah anyone know when the replays are up?

they won't be

I don't think
unless someone uploaded online