List Mgmt. 2014 Draft Prospects

[felsty]

If we are umming and ahhing about the top 3 then I think it would be haneous to not downgrade from 1 to 3 and get something in return from GWS.

Jacksch and JOR and 3 for pick 1? Or pick 1 and our third? Then just get whichever of Petracca McCartin and Wright is left?

 

[God Save Max King]

What is Billings doing in your spine exactly? Did you think we wouldnt notice? just putting his name there randomly is not real helpful.

And No- Bruce will NEVER be a quality CHF but may be a CHB in that spine.

I generally add a rover at the end of the spine, full-back, half-back, Center, half-forward, full-forward, rover. You don't select flankers with top 3 picks with a vision for them moving into midfield in the future.

 

[karaoke]

If we are umming and ahhing about the top 3 then I think it would be haneous to not downgrade from 1 to 3 and get something in return from GWS.

Jacksch and JOR and 3 for pick 1? Or pick 1 and our third? Then just get whichever of Petracca McCartin and Wright is left?

I get what you're saying, but not sure about a pick of the three 'by default'.

Let's get who 'we' want.

Just because we are all up in the air about it, doesn't mean Pelch, Bains & Trout are.

 

[hayes]

the point is theyve taken mids in droves. not all have been from WA, they chose the best talent on offer. theyve ended up with a very good fwd line, good ruck division and were very good down back, prior to glass going.

KPP stocks have never been better, yet theyre shit. why? because those mids never came on and never replaced the likes of kerr, cousins, judd, fletcher, braun,

And yet we have one guy who's shown he can replace our old midfield guns and everyone is trying to trade him.

 

[L_W_P]

Billings would be the rover/ruck-rover in that spine I believe. He's hopefully gonna be the equal if not better of Dunstan so why leave him out (silly to leave two of Judd, Kerr, Cousins out of the spine when discussing West Coast's spine in 2006 as an example)

And give Brucey a go up at CHF. He's played forward much more in his life than down back.

When listing the spine it should read -

FB
CHB
R
CHF
FF

So many people list the centre because that's how it looks on team sheets. Never made sense to me because you could name 10 players in the centre spot to suit your argument.

Delaney
Bruce
Hickey
Stanley
Lee

That's our spine post Roo and Fish with the list as it stands and based on exposed form.

 

[felsty]

I get what you're saying, but not sure about a pick of the three 'by default'.

Let's get who 'we' want.

Just because we are all up in the air about it, doesn't mean Pelch, Bains & Trout are.

But what if it also gets us what we want from GWS trumping everyone else? It's the type of trade Pelch would do, and just like getting Longer last year, if you got Jacksch and ORourke plus a top 3 pick with another top pick then you're getting 3 top picks for the price of one! Obviously GWS probably wouldn't do that and it might cost our second as well plus someone but I think with the position of power we are in it would be silly to not at least entertain the idea a little

 

[karaoke]

But what if it also gets us what we want from GWS trumping everyone else? It's the type of trade Pelch would do, and just like getting Longer last year, if you got Jacksch and ORourke plus a top 3 pick with another top pick then you're getting 3 top picks for the price of one! Obviously GWS probably wouldn't do that and it might cost our second as well plus someone but I think with the position of power we are in it would be silly to not at least entertain the idea a little

I can see what you're saying and it makes sense, particularly if Pelch & Assoc. can't split the 3 top rated kids this year.

If they have a clear standout choice (in their view) on the No.1 pick, let's keep the pick IMO.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

But what if it also gets us what we want from GWS trumping everyone else? It's the type of trade Pelch would do, and just like getting Longer last year, if you got Jacksch and ORourke plus a top 3 pick with another top pick then you're getting 3 top picks for the price of one! Obviously GWS probably wouldn't do that and it might cost our second as well plus someone but I think with the position of power we are in it would be silly to not at least entertain the idea a little

GWS would never do that deal. For O'Rourke they would be after something like; O'Rourke, picks 3 and 58 for picks 1 and 21. Similar to the Dom Tyson deal last year. Jaksch they would likely give up the downgrade of pick 1 to 3, IMO.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

I get what you're saying, but not sure about a pick of the three 'by default'.

Let's get who 'we' want.

Just because we are all up in the air about it, doesn't mean Pelch, Bains & Trout are.

Exactly right. Our recruitment guys will likely have a standout pick 1 and will be making that selection with confidence.

 

[Persevering Saint]

I might be old school or something but i think rebuilding teams should seriously build around key position players, they're bastards to find where as you can find midfielders, rucks, etc anywhere.

See, I don't buy that. You can find Mav Wellers, Tom Currens, Clinton Jones anywhere. Midfielders like Nick Dal Santo, Luke Ball, Lenny Hayes don't grow on trees.

 

[aussierulesrules]

See, I don't buy that. You can find Mav Wellers, Tom Currens, Clinton Jones anywhere. Midfielders like Nick Dal Santo, Luke Ball, Lenny Hayes don't grow on trees.

No, they don't grow on trees, but the point is that you can find them outside of the very top of the draft a lot more readily that you'll find dominant key forward types.

Cases in point include the likes of Fyfe, Stevie J, Beams, Hannebery, Joey, Steven, Swan, Sloane, Rockliff, etc. etc. Hell even Gaz Jnr wasn't tipped to go very high in his draft had he not been F/S eligible and he is arguably the best of all time.

I'm still all for best available with high picks though, so if that's Petracca then bring him on.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Whoever gets them (Patton/Cameron/Boyd) will pay dearly for it.

If that was us, would it really matter (not so much for Cameron, who will cost the most, but at least the other two)?

Does anyone have any suggestions as to how we are going to meet the minimum 95% of the salary cap requirement in 2016 if we don't go out and spend up pretty big at either the end of this year, the end of next year, or a bit of both?

Take this year for instance. Given our financial position in particular, does anyone think we'd be paying more than the 95% minimum? Given that we have about 25 who are under 22yo and have lost all of BJ, Dal, Milne, Kosi, Gram, Mac and Blake over the past two years, I personally doubt it very much, even if we've started front-ending some contracts and if we're not paying more than 95%, the salary cap rises $500,000 for next season I believe, so that's $500K extra that we'll need to pay someone just to meet the minimum for next year, right off the bat.

Then you can add whatever we were paying Lenny, say $400K, $500K if it was back-ended, meaning we now need to find at least $900K, then you have all of Fisher, Gwilt, Schneider and CJ coming out of contract and likely all either going to be gone next year, or taking a salary hit on their next contract. I would conservatively estimate that between the 4 of them they'd be taking at least a $500K hit on their current salaries, if they stay, so that could be taking us up to a bare minimum of $1.4mil that we need to be paying others, just to meet the minimum 95% of the cap for next year. If we happen to get a good offer for Joey and move him on, that would take us up to $1.8 or more, or if it were Armo, or perhaps Jack instead, to get the picks we're after, it could take us up to at least a $1.7mil shortfall.

So unless we go out this year and spend up pretty big on someone from another club, it's looking like we're going to need to start front-ending an awful lot of contracts just to meet the salary cap minimum requirement for next season (2015). If we've already been front-ending some contracts just to meet the 95% minimum for this season, that will then be two seasons in a row of front-ending and given that most/all of our contracts are 2 or 3 years, that won't leave much for the 2nd or 3rd year of those contracts, meaning that we could have a massive shortfall for the 2016 season (where I presume the salary cap goes up again- maybe another $500K?) and of course if Roo happens to hang up the boots at the end of next season, that will create another $500K hole that we have to fill for 2016. Farren Ray I think also comes to the end of his lucrative 3 year deal in 12 months and isn't likely to get as much in his next one.

So if we do have a bloody huge shortfall for 2016, we'll either need to:

A: Pay those on our list a lot more than we need to pay them in order to keep them and more than they're really worth, or
B: Go out and spend up reasonably big on the market and instead of overpaying our current list, add to it with someone really good and highly sought after from another team's list. Someone who is likely a lot more ready to perform than whoever we'd get in the draft with the pick it would probably take to get them. Like we did for instance when we went out and got the likes of Gehrig, Hamill, Capuano and Lawrence, last time we finished bottom of the ladder and had a mountain of cap space free.

So it wouldn't bother me in the slightest if we chose the 2nd option, especially if it helped us to become competitive sooner, and paying someone like Patton/Boyd say $600K, for 4 years, from 2016, we could front-end their contract a heap, so that a big chunk of it was used up by the end of 2016 (which would help us meet the 95% minimum requirement for that year) and that would allow us to go really hard at free agency at the end of that year, which is when we've aimed to start using FA.

The club will have well and truly done the maths and I'd suggest that is why Finnis came out and said that we'll be willing to "overpay" and go super-hard at anyone out of contract north of the border that we like, for instance and to possibly enter the free agency hunt sooner than we previously anticipated. I think we'll not only want to do that, but we may need to, simply to meet our future salary cap requirements, especially for 2016.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

aussierulesrules I was reading the 'Jeremy Cameron Leaving' thread in Trades & Drafting board & there was still a bit of discussion going on as he still hasn't re-signed.

I know that he seems to be the most unattainable of the big 3 but until he's locked away he's still a possibility.

If GWS see Wright as the perfect compliment in terms of an elite ruck/forward & have no chance to get him with pick 5 then I'd be waving pick 1 & a sweetener in front of them. I'd also be waving a fat bag of cash at Jeremiah & get Foxy to offer him a few trucks as a superannuation gift as well.

You never know GWS might blink.... or they'll give JC more than they wanted & that might help squeeze out The General

 

[Periphery]

If that was us, would it really matter (not so much for Cameron, who will cost the most, but at least the other two)?

Does anyone have any suggestions as to how we are going to meet the minimum 95% of the salary cap requirement in 2016 if we don't go out and spend up pretty big at either the end of this year, the end of next year, or a bit of both?

Take this year for instance. Given our financial position in particular, does anyone think we'd be paying more than the 95% minimum? Given that we have about 25 who are under 22yo and have lost all of BJ, Dal, Milne, Kosi, Gram, Mac and Blake over the past two years, I personally doubt it very much, even if we've started front-ending some contracts and if we're not paying more than 95%, the salary cap rises $500,000 for next season I believe, so that's $500K extra that we'll need to pay someone just to meet the minimum for next year, right off the bat.

Then you can add whatever we were paying Lenny, say $400K, $500K if it was back-ended, meaning we now need to find at least $900K, then you have all of Fisher, Gwilt, Schneider and CJ coming out of contract and likely all either going to be gone next year, or taking a salary hit on their next contract. I would conservatively estimate that between the 4 of them they'd be taking at least a $500K hit on their current salaries, if they stay, so that could be taking us up to a bare minimum of $1.4mil that we need to be paying others, just to meet the minimum 95% of the cap for next year. If we happen to get a good offer for Joey and move him on, that would take us up to $1.8 or more, or if it were Armo, or perhaps Jack instead, to get the picks we're after, it could take us up to at least a $1.7mil shortfall.

So unless we go out this year and spend up pretty big on someone from another club, it's looking like we're going to need to start front-ending an awful lot of contracts just to meet the salary cap minimum requirement for next season (2015). If we've already been front-ending some contracts just to meet the 95% minimum for this season, that will then be two seasons in a row of front-ending and given that most/all of our contracts are 2 or 3 years, that won't leave much for the 2nd or 3rd year of those contracts, meaning that we could have a massive shortfall for the 2016 season (where I presume the salary cap goes up again- maybe another $500K?) and of course if Roo happens to hang up the boots at the end of next season, that will create another $500K hole that we have to fill for 2016. Farren Ray I think also comes to the end of his lucrative 3 year deal in 12 months and isn't likely to get as much in his next one.

So if we do have a bloody huge shortfall for 2016, we'll either need to:

A: Pay those on our list a lot more than we need to pay them in order to keep them and more than they're really worth, or
B: Go out and spend up reasonably big on the market and instead of overpaying our current list, add to it with someone really good and highly sought after from another team's list. Someone who is likely a lot more ready to perform than whoever we'd get in the draft with the pick it would probably take to get them. Like we did for instance when we went out and got the likes of Gehrig, Hamill, Capuano and Lawrence, last time we finished bottom of the ladder and had a mountain of cap space free.

So it wouldn't bother me in the slightest if we chose the 2nd option, and paying someone like Patton/Boyd say $600K, for 4 years, from 2016, we could front-end their contract a heap, so that a big chunk of it was used up by the end of 2016 (which would help us meet the 95% minimum requirement for that year) and that would allow us to go really hard at free agency at the end of that year, which is when we've aimed to start using FA.

The club will have well and truly done the maths and I'd suggest that is why Finnis came out and said that we'll be willing to "overpay" and go super-hard at anyone out of contract north of the border that we like, for instance and to possibly enter the free agency hunt sooner than we previously anticipated. I think we'll not only want to do that, but we may need to, simply to meet our future salary cap requirements, especially for 2016.

I've posted this before but I think it is relevant:



You can do some pretty creative things with the TPP and salary cap. While this video is from a while ago I don't see why the same strategy couldn't be used under the new rules.

I do agree with you that we will probably use some of our excess cap space to aggressively target some players to try to get them to the club.

 

[Falchoon]

No, they don't grow on trees, but the point is that you can find them outside of the very top of the draft a lot more readily that you'll find dominant key forward types.

fair point


but one could argue that the only duds drafted in the top 5 have been KPP's.

The duds on this list would be McDougall, Livingston, Walsh, Gumbleton, Morton and Grant.

Polak probably narrowly climbs into the Fiora/Clarke/Tambling bracket of players who had their moments & played 3 figures in games.

Morton and Grant were both 192cm players who remained skinny.

Fraser Riewoldt Hodge Goddard Cooney Deledio Murphy Gibbs Kreuzer Watts Scully Swallow
Hasleby Kosi Ball Wells Walker Roughead Thomas Gumbleton Cotchin Naitanui Trengove Bennell
Fiora Didak Judd Brennan Sylvia Griffen Ellis Hansen Masten Hill Martin Day
Pavlich Livingston Polak Walsh Ray Tambling Kennedy Leuy Morton Hartlett Morabito Gaff
L Brown McDougall X Clarke McVeigh mcLean Franklin Pendles Boak Grant Hurley Cunnington Polec

 

[aussierulesrules]

aussierulesrules I was reading the 'Jeremy Cameron Leaving' thread in Trades & Drafting board & there was still a bit of discussion going on as he still hasn't re-signed.

I know that he seems to be the most unattainable of the big 3 but until he's locked away he's still a possibility.

If GWS see Wright as the perfect compliment in terms of an elite ruck/forward & have no chance to get him with pick 5 then I'd be waving pick 1 & a sweetener in front of them. I'd also be waving a fat bag of cash at Jeremiah & get Foxy to offer him a few trucks as a superannuation gift as well.

You never know GWS might blink.... or they'll give JC more than they wanted & that might help squeeze out The General

Given how quickly GWS have looked to extend the contracts of anyone on their list that they really like (eg. extending Kelly's contract after just one game this year, immediately extending the contracts of the likes of Corr last year) I think it's extraordinarily safe to say that they would have juicy contract extensions in front of all of Cameron, Patton, Boyd and probably Tomlinson right now and that they would have been there for a pretty long time, especially in Cameron's case, so the fact that they haven't signed them says to me that they are all open to moving and you certainly hear plenty of rumours that Cameron and Patton want out of there, so I'd be talking to those who manage them and Boyd right now and talking pretty big sums of money, to get into their ears well before next year (when GWS may finally come good and they may start becoming less keen to leave).

Boyd is the one I'd probably be most keen to target, personally. Firstly, I see him as being not only likely slightly better than the likes of Patton and McCartin, but also ideally suited to our structural needs of that big huge unit to build our forward line around and potentially one who could pinch-hit in the ruck if needed, being over 200cm. Secondly, he is the least established by far of the 3, so I see him as being GWS's 3rd highest priority and as such the easiest to pry away, especially if they have to pay a fortune to keep one or both of the other two. It also wouldn't be as much of a PR disaster for them if they were to lose Boyd. Thirdly, because he is the least established, I imagine he would cost the least as far as both salary and possibly trade price goes, despite possibly being as good, if not better than the other two.

The other thing about Cameron, aside from the fact you'd probably have to pay him a $mil for several years to get him to come to a club like us, is that physically he is very similar to one Spencer White and if Spencer comes good I'd ideally want to get someone in who will compliment him (and Lee, who is also slim and not that "power forward", ditto Rhys), rather than getting someone else who is also not that huge strong unit. Of course I wouldn't knock back Cameron for a second if we had the chance to get him for a fair price, but he is probably the one I'd be targeting 3rd hardest, even though he may be the best of the lot.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Slobbo on AFL360 said a number of weeks back Cameron rejected a 7 year deal worth around 6mill from GWS.

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

Apparently Melbourne are into Malceski so if they lose Frawley and sign him they don't get a compo.. Sounds alright to me, means our second rounder doesn't get pushed back far.

 

[aussierulesrules]

fair point


but one could argue that the only duds drafted in the top 5 have been KPP's.

The duds on this list would be McDougall, Livingston, Walsh, Gumbleton, Morton and Grant.

Polak probably narrowly climbs into the Fiora/Clarke/Tambling bracket of players who had their moments & played 3 figures in games.

Morton and Grant were both 192cm players who remained skinny.

Fraser Riewoldt Hodge Goddard Cooney Deledio Murphy Gibbs Kreuzer Watts Scully Swallow
Hasleby Kosi Ball Wells Walker Roughead Thomas Gumbleton Cotchin Naitanui Trengove Bennell
Fiora Didak Judd Brennan Sylvia Griffen Ellis Hansen Masten Hill Martin Day
Pavlich Livingston Polak Walsh Ray Tambling Kennedy Leuy Morton Hartlett Morabito Gaff
L Brown McDougall X Clarke McVeigh mcLean Franklin Pendles Boak Grant Hurley Cunnington Polec

Morton wasn't a "KPP" of any kind (he played flanks/wings/on ball, I believe) and I would argue that Grant isn't either, being so bloody skinny and not particularly tall. Gumbleton was shit hot prior to his body falling apart on him and I would be happy as larry if we got someone as good as him this year, but who had an injury free career, rather than their career being derailed completely by injury, as Gumby's has been. He fits into the same box as Kosi/Ball/Goose in that regard, but to an even greater extent.

It's definitely true that while you generally only get the best "KPP's" with very high picks that it's still a gamble though. On TAC Cup Future Stars recently everyone's favourite "list manager" Tez went through I think it was 10 years drafts (except for the last 2 or 3- it was the 10 prior to that) and ranked everyone who was drafted in the top 10 of those drafts and he found that only about 30% of "KPP's/ruckmen" ended up really making it and that only about 30% of "outside types" (eg Fiora, Ray, Hill, Morton, Gaff) really lived up to their draft ranking, but that a whopping 80% of "inside mids" taken in the top 10 of their draft ended up really making it.

So if you were playing the odds you'd take Petracca over McCartin or Wright every day of the week and twice on Sundays, but if you desperately want to get that "gun key forward" and you rated those three equally, you'd roll the dice and take one of McCartin or Wright and hope that they end up in the 30% or so that really make it and make it big, like a Riewoldt, Franklin, Pavlich, or Roughnut.

 

[Hayes4PM]

Slobbo on AFL360 said a number of weeks back Cameron rejected a 7 year deal worth around 6mill from GWS.

Imagine if he went to the Swans. The uproar!

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Apparently Melbourne are into Malceski so if they lose Frawley and sign him they don't get a compo.. Sounds alright to me, means our second rounder doesn't get pushed back far.

I don't think they'll miss out on compo but it might be reduced... say Malcevski is rated a band 3 FA then Melbourne's Band 1 loss (frawley) might equal a band 2 compo (2nd round).

Personally I hope they get the band 1 & we manage to prise one of their top 5 picks away.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Imagine if he went to the Swans. The uproar!

They might get Frawley though!

 

[aussierulesrules]

They might get Frawley though!

Imagine that, that was amazing to hear they might be going after him last night! You'd have to give it to them for their bravery though, if they do pull him off after also landing Tippett and Buddy in the past two years. They're clearly not going to die wondering. They said last night that Frawley wants 7 years.

 

[joop]

Imagine that, that was amazing to hear they might be going after him last night! You'd have to give it to them for their bravery though, if they do pull him off after also landing Tippett and Buddy in the past two years. They're clearly not going to die wondering.

Can you still trade players if they are free agents? For instance could Sydney send Sam Reid to Melbourne for Frawley?

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

Can you still trade players if they are free agents? For instance could Sydney send Sam Reid to Melbourne for Frawley?

If both clubs come to an agreement i'd say they can, Port Adelaide/Essendon did it with Monfires so Port Adelaide wouldn't lose their compos for Chaplin/Pearce.