2015 - AFL Round 20

[Fuzzy Happy Poo]

with the sports bet money back promo if the lead at a break. If I already have money on a team and I decide to put more on the same team the more I put on won't be refunded would it?

 

[chrisdon16]

WHICH ONE TO BELIEVE???

Mate, Lenson and myself have agreed to let it go, it's over

 

[banana_bus]

with the sports bet money back promo if the lead at a break. If I already have money on a team and I decide to put more on the same team the more I put on won't be refunded would it?

First bet only applies.

 

[banana_bus]

IF... the Dockers make the business decision that is right in front of them this weekend ...

THEN ... they tank, and lose to the Eagles. That would mean the Hawks have to travel to Perth for a qualifying final AND possibly a preliminary final. You know it makes sense, Ross. Are you prepared to go through with it?.

LOL even Damien Barrett is on this theory now.

 

[nooblet]

he gets paid for those articles.

i like how the last line was added to make it HARD HITTING

 

[Jarrod111]

IF... the Dockers make the business decision that is right in front of them this weekend ...

THEN ... they tank, and lose to the Eagles. That would mean the Hawks have to travel to Perth for a qualifying final AND possibly a preliminary final. You know it makes sense, Ross. Are you prepared to go through with it?.

LOL even Damien Barrett is on this theory now.

To me their best option would be to attempt to beat Eagles and North, secure there top spot then rest players during the Melbourne/Port games.

Even if they let the Eagles win, it wouldn't be definite that the Eagles would finish second and chances are they will face Hawthorn somewhere in the finals, no point running from it.

 

[d3ft]

he gets paid for those articles.

i like how the last line was added to make it HARD HITTING

Although I think Barrett is an immense twat, to be fair, those "If...Then..." sliding doors articles are meant to be tongue in cheek.

 

[MRCB12]

Syd U40. North. Port U40. Hawks. WB.

That'll do for now.

 

[the_big_sav]

Some of the adelaide margins and total goals have increased a bit today? Are there any rumours about adelaide players potentially not playing?

 

[deeco]

Some of the adelaide margins and total goals have increased a bit today? Are there any rumours about adelaide players potentially not playing?

Resting players cause they have 0% chance to win m8

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Some of the adelaide margins and total goals have increased a bit today? Are there any rumours about adelaide players potentially not playing?

Heard nothing about any of our players missing

 

[Lensen]

Some of the adelaide margins and total goals have increased a bit today? Are there any rumours about adelaide players potentially not playing?

friday changes in prices tend to be the result of syndicates betting, so someone's reasonably sharp model likes the essendon line chances

 

[Whirlpool]

$100 on Sydney H2H sportsbet

Sydney 1-39 $25 @ $3 special - Tom Waterhouse
Sydney 1-39 $25 @ $3 special - Centrebet

 

[banana_bus]

$100 on Sydney H2H sportsbet

Sydney 1-39 $25 @ $3 special - Tom Waterhouse
Sydney 1-39 $25 @ $3 special - Centrebet

Will hit this, Ladbrokes $2 special, and then use the WH Click2Call special on the Pies. Or is that dumb?

 

[dandyjester]

Get on Port now guys, Treloar Scully confirmed out, Coniglio expected out.

Gday all first post but have been following the discussions here for a few months now.

Managed to get on Port after banana bus' post ... before prices shortened considerably.
5u Port -15.5 @ 1.91 (ladbrokes)
1u Port @ 1.42 (sports) special
1u Port Half/Full dbl @ 1.83 (crown)

I'm tempted to take a middle with GWS +25.5 (maybe 2u with Palmerbet @ $2 after 4pm) and maybe look for a live middle if port make a good start. I didn't know what a middle was a few weeks ago lol
Just wondering what others would do in this situation?

Jester

 

[banana_bus]

Gday all first post but have been following the discussions here for a few months now.

Managed to get on Port after banana bus' post ... before prices shortened considerably.
5u Port -15.5 @ 1.91 (ladbrokes)
1u Port @ 1.42 (sports) special
1u Port Half/Full dbl @ 1.83 (crown)

I'm tempted to take a middle with GWS +25.5 (maybe 2u with Palmerbet @ $2 after 4pm) and maybe look for a live middle if port make a good start. I didn't know what a middle was a few weeks ago lol
Just wondering what others would do in this situation?

Jester

Looking at Port's changes I'm not so confident anymore. They should win but the current odds are ridiculously skinny.

 

[csnody]

I'm doing my usual Friday night bet for us small time betters.
$20 on sydney @2 (Ladb)
$20 on pies @2.95. (SB)

Worst case: money back, other two cases end about $20 up.

 

[Spads]

Plays for this week. 1U each on:
Syd -17.5
Ess +26.5
Nth M -27.5
Port -14.5
Bris -1.5
WB -27.5
WC +8.5

Round 19 results: 5-4
YTD lines: 49-37 (+8.08U), SU: 4-8 (+0.55U)
Overall: +8.63U.

 

[Spads]

dandyjester, post: 40204452, member: 165159"]Gday all first post but have been following the discussions here for a few months now.

Managed to get on Port after banana bus' post ... before prices shortened considerably.
5u Port -15.5 @ 1.91 (ladbrokes)
1u Port @ 1.42 (sports) special
1u Port Half/Full dbl @ 1.83 (crown)

I'm tempted to take a middle with GWS +25.5 (maybe 2u with Palmerbet @ $2 after 4pm) and maybe look for a live middle if port make a good start. I didn't know what a middle was a few weeks ago lol
Just wondering what others would do in this situation?

Jester

If you've got 5 units on, then a 10 point middle is too good to miss out on. I would recommend at least 2 units on the middle.

 

[nooblet]

if you have a 10 point middle then your original bet is +ev and all you're doing is giving some of it back in exchange for lower variance.

variance isn't a bad thing.

 

[Lensen]

If you've got 5 units on, then a 10 point middle is too good to miss out on. I would recommend at least 2 units on the middle.

if you've marked -15.5 as good enough for a 5 unit bet then would be surprising bankroll management if a 10 point shift suddenly made GWS value
if you took 5 units just to middle some back then fair enough, but otherwise unless you mark the GWS game now value you'd let it ride

 

[Sketi]

Will hit this, Ladbrokes $2 special, and then use the WH Click2Call special on the Pies. Or is that dumb?

Are WH doing the $50 thing live again? Can't see anything in their promo section.

 

[Spads]

=Lensen, post: 40204928, member: 6283"]if you've marked -15.5 as good enough for a 5 unit bet then would be surprising bankroll management if a 10 point shift suddenly made GWS value
if you took 5 units just to middle some back then fair enough, but otherwise unless you mark the GWS game now value you'd let it ride

Agree. I'm assuming the 5 unit play was to create the middle opportunity.

 

[Invincible_X]

Th

Why not put 400 on under 175.5 and then you profit around 370

Sent from my E2053 using Tapatalk

That's correct, but as gambling is always a chance so I was hoping that if it turns to be low scoring then I might win $1100.
Can't say that's not a likely possibility.

 

[Invincible_X]

Y

Outlay of $400
Even if you win and the final score is 170 your return is $600. You are only getting odds of $1.50 on under 175.5.
The line total (Under 180.5) is $1.88.

Actually I think you might be trolling, Hawthorne?

Am looking for a safe option with a probability to win $1100.