2015 - AFL Round 4

[Lensen]

What are people's thoughts on arbing margin (1-39) markets?

I'm looking at the Freo v Syd game which we all think will be close and you can get:
$2.20 on Freo 1-39 &
$2.80 on Syd 1-39

It's been 12 years since either team beat the other by >40 so the only real risk I see is the draw

books will have markets of "either side under 39.5" which will include the draw, you probably could get better odds doing it your way though with a saver on the draw (particularly if you take best odds across a couple of books)
just whether its worthwhile getting ~$1.30ish odds, IMV probably not
also: what you are doing is not "arbing"

 

[Jay-Z]

books will have markets of "either side under 39.5" which will include the draw, you probably could get better odds doing it your way though with a saver on the draw (particularly if you take best odds across a couple of books)
just whether its worthwhile getting ~$1.30ish odds, IMV probably not

Thanks.

also: what you are doing is not "arbing"

I know, but I don't know what the proper term is.

 

[Jugada]

Thanks.


I know, but I don't know what the proper term is.

Dutching

 

[TheKanga]

48 but Port are a different side to Freo. As I said before, the last time one of these teams beat the other by 40+ was 2002 and the only teams to do that to Freo in the last couple of years have been Hawthorn and the Saints (when Freo rested their whole team)

I see a 40+ margin as very unlikely but I am not quite confident enough on picking who will win. Hence I was looking at playing the two specials (Sportsbet and Crownbet) off against each other or looking at the 1-39s. In the end, I think I may just have a nibble on either side <15.5 or just give it a miss altogether

Leaning Freo myself.
Sydney have only beat them once at Subi since 1999.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

$25 for Richmond at -22.5

 

[lions_den]

3 more lions out injured and the line still doesn't move...west coast line

 

[banana_bus]

3 more lions out injured and the line still doesn't move...west coast line

I still like them to beat WCE.

 

[Sketi]

Leaning Freo myself.
Sydney have only beat them once at Subi since 1999.

Can't remember playing them there in the last 3 years (since we have been a top 4 side). Been at the SCG the last few years from memory.

 

[BloodRet]

Can't remember playing them there in the last 3 years (since we have been a top 4 side). Been at the SCG the last few years from memory.

We played them there in the 2013 PF and got dominated. We had half our team out though.

 

[Jugada]

Any stats from beyond 3 years ago are pretty irrelevant imo

 

[iluvparis]

Any stats from the last 20 years ago are pretty irrelevant imo

EFA

 

[Sketi]

We played them there in the 2013 PF and got dominated. We had half our team out though.

Oh yeah shit, was thinking home and away. Yeah that sucked, we were cooked tho.

 

[GROTTO]

Fun Facts

In the last 3 years, Freo and West Coast have lost 4 of their past 6 games after a Derby.

 

[TheKanga]

Ziebell & Wells still 50/50 chance to play.
Geelong will most likely be without Bartel, Stokes, Lonergan & Hawkins.

 

[free at last]

Fun Facts

In the last 3 years, Freo and West Coast have lost 4 of their past 6 games after a Derby.

Last Sunday's derby was the least physical encounter I've witnessed in a fair while,very timid game indeed.

 

[GROTTO]

Last Sunday's derby was the least physical encounter I've witnessed in a fair while,very timid game indeed.

Why was that? After hearing about the one sided nature at QT time, I decided to not watch the game. Thats good to know actually and makes a difference. Thanks.

 

[free at last]

Why was that? After hearing about the one sided nature at QT time, I decided to not watch the game. Thats good to know actually and makes a difference. Thanks.

WC for the first half barely touched the ball,very few repeat ball ups.

 

[banana_bus]

Ladbrokes doing $2 faves on all Saturday matches (max bet $20).

For those punters that want to have a free swing this week, back the fave there, then back the underdog on Sportsbet.

Then buy yourself a snack box from KFC with the profit ;-)

 

[TheKanga]

Rumors that judd will be out for Carlton.
Hopefully not as i have them in a few multis.

 

[X_box_X]

Ladbrokes doing $2 faves on all Saturday matches (max bet $20).

For those punters that want to have a free swing this week, back the fave there, then back the underdog on Sportsbet.

Then buy yourself a snack box from KFC with the profit ;-)

Haha what a classic.

It's smart by them, though. They have chosen the best round to do it, because there are no short priced favourites. Good advertising.

 

[banana_bus]

Haha what a classic.

It's smart by them, though. They have chosen the best round to do it, because there are no short priced favourites. Good advertising.

To be fair they had the money back special for the first 2 rounds. You're right though.

 

[GROTTO]

Rumors that judd will be out for Carlton.
Hopefully not as i have them in a few multis.

The Blues should be grateful that the wooden spooners didnt have Riewoldt and Montagna in the team this week.

Im curious who punters in here have backed in the first ANZAC game this weekend? Should be closer to 50:50 if Judd misses. Possibly slight ground advantage to the Saints too?

 

[TheKanga]

The Blues should be grateful that the wooden spooners didnt have Riewoldt and Montagna in the team this week.

Im curious who punters in here have backed in the first ANZAC game this weekend? Should be closer to 50:50 if Judd misses. Possibly slight ground advantage to the Saints too?

I went with Carlton as they had their measure pretty comfortably last year.
Westpac Stadium is kind of a neutral venue, Saints haven't won there yet.
I still think there is abit more class in the Blues lineup even without Judd.

 

[GROTTO]

I went with Carlton as they had their measure pretty comfortably last year.
Westpac Stadium is kind of a neutral venue, Saints haven't won there yet.
I still think there is abit more class in the Blues lineup even without Judd.

The first point you make is salient. However, missing from that team is Thomas, Yarran and potentially Judd. Some may argue that Gibbs has been missing all year, but I digress. With Carlton however, they dont have the depth to cover losses of this quality which may be an issue on Saturday. With that said, it is the noticeable losses of Riewoldt and Montagna that makes me feel that this negates the Blues outs.

The Saints have played at this venue, twice previously. Narrow losses to Sydney in 2013 and Lions in 2014. So I think they can and will keep it tight on Saturday.

The bookies agree with you, they havent moved their prices much, however that remains to be seen once the teams sheets come out in 3 hours.

 

[DerpWerls]

Melbourne +23.5 @ $1.92

Essendon -16.5 @ $1.92

Fremantle Lead Qtr Time and Lose Game @ $6.80