Position 2015 SuperCoach rucks

[SnappyHappy]

Wow.

NicNats avg plz TheOz?

Also Maric TheOz

 

[TheOz]

Hm interesting so pretty much all ruckmen are overpriced. Chances of starting with Leuenberger & Kreuzer (or at least one) just went up.

The players I typed out are the only ones they mentioned in their little blurb.

 

[SnappyHappy]

The players I typed out are the only ones they mentioned in their little blurb.

Ah I see. Thanks for sharing. Naitanui I think could see appreciate from his 486k price tag so he is still a good chance of starting in my side. If Minson shows some good signs pre-season he is probably another he shouldn't lose value.

 

[Kadog]

I wonder if anybody increased the avg under the new setup.

 

[TheOz]

Ah I see. Thanks for sharing. Naitanui I think could see appreciate from his 486k price tag so he is still a good chance of starting in my side. If Minson shows some good signs pre-season he is probably another he shouldn't lose value.

I tend to agree to an extent, Nic Nat is underpriced however he might not gain much on his average of last season with these new scoring rules. Any ruck you can get who'll breakeven of his average of last season is a win here.

 

[TheOz]

I wonder if anybody increased the avg under the new setup.

From my reading, rucks across the board have all lost points, the main motivation for them changing the system is the marked increase in stoppages compared to when they first devised the ruck scoring criteria. They stressed that accurate tap ruckmen who also amass possessions around the ground will be the least affected (Jacobs is by far the frontrunner here).

 

[Goats]

Not keen to shell out $600k+ for Jacobs, reckon I might roll with Leuenberger and Nic Nat to start with, with the intention to upgrade Leuenberger to Jacobs or other in form premiums.

 

[SnappyHappy]

Not keen to shell out $600k+ for Jacobs, reckon I might roll with Leuenberger and Nic Nat to start with, with the intention to upgrade Leuenberger to Jacobs or other in form premiums.

This is the combo I'll most likely start with too.

 

[TheOz]

Not keen to shell out $600k+ for Jacobs, reckon I might roll with Leuenberger and Nic Nat to start with, with the intention to upgrade Leuenberger to Jacobs or other in form premiums.

Reckon Minson might be another one who could break even on his current average, averaged 14.5 disposals and 30.1% ho adv in 2013 so is underpriced if you take his 2013 season into account. Could have just been an outlier for him though.

 

[Goats]

Minson is certainly one I'm considering. He was exceptionally dominant in 2013 and more importantly he was consistent.

If Paddy or Stefan were rucking solo, I'd be all over them this year.

 

[TN25]

TheOz did you preorder the prospectus or did you buy it today at a newsagent?

 

[TheOz]

TheOz did you preorder the prospectus or did you buy it today at a newsagent?

Preordered before xmas. I didn't see any at dymocks today though (went in there for a different reason). Usually a week or two between the preorders and newsagents/book shops from memory.

 

[TN25]

Preordered before xmas. I didn't see any at dymocks today though (went in there for a different reason). Usually a week or two between the preorders and newsagents/book shops from memory.

I usually preorder it but this time I didn't as I thought it comes out in newsagents a day or too later. I saw on Twitter that it'd be coming out in the next week, I just hope I can get it before I go away

 

[iobjectsir]

Just got the prospectus, check out the adjusted averages from last season for rucks based on the following:

"In 2015, rather than awarding one point for all hitouts, there will be zero points allocated, but the value of a hitout-to-advantage has risen from three points to five, rewarding quality over quantity. The points allocated to the player that wins a gather from a hitout has also dropped slightly, as more credit will be given to the effective hitout."

Jacobs 118.5 to 111.4
Martin 115.3 to 105.0
Sandilands 110.8 to 99.9
Goldstein 106.6 to 96.9
Mumford 112.7 to 100.2
Warnock 81.0 to 69.2
Pyke 79.8 to 70.2
Jamar 84.3 to 72.9
Hickey 86.1 to 75.5
Minson 94.8 to 82.0

It would have been nice of them to adjust the ruck prices based on the adjusted averages.

Also, points awarded for a gather from a hit out have been decreased too therefore I think it would be a good exercise to determine which inside mids have amassed the most gathers from hit outs as they'll be affected too.

Basically in terms of rucks, gotta pick the blokes with the highest h/o adv % who also win possessions around the ground.

Pretty sure you've analysed this incorrectly...
From what the 2015 prospectus says, my interpretation is that ruckmen who have high clearance numbers (ie. naitanui, krezuer) and tap ruckmen (ie. jacobs, goldstein) will improve the most. Out of curiosity, how are you exactly calculating this drastic drop across the board?

 

[Super Hans]

For anyone interested in Minson, most of the people who go down and watch our training sessions have him as the best performed player of the preseason. Looks very mobile, hopefully his back injury which really killed him last season is gone.

 

[TheOz]

Pretty sure you've analysed this incorrectly...
From what the 2015 prospectus says, my interpretation is that ruckmen who have high clearance numbers (ie. naitanui, krezuer) and tap ruckmen (ie. jacobs, goldstein) will improve the most. Out of curiosity, how are you exactly calculating this drastic drop across the board?

How can they "improve" when the adjusted 2014 averages all have them losing at the least 7 points a game and in some cases, double that? The adjusted 2014 averages are what CD provided.

 

[fantasyunit]

Just got the prospectus, check out the adjusted averages from last season for rucks based on the following:

"In 2015, rather than awarding one point for all hitouts, there will be zero points allocated, but the value of a hitout-to-advantage has risen from three points to five, rewarding quality over quantity. The points allocated to the player that wins a gather from a hitout has also dropped slightly, as more credit will be given to the effective hitout."

Jacobs 118.5 to 111.4
Martin 115.3 to 105.0
Sandilands 110.8 to 99.9
Goldstein 106.6 to 96.9
Mumford 112.7 to 100.2
Warnock 81.0 to 69.2
Pyke 79.8 to 70.2
Jamar 84.3 to 72.9
Hickey 86.1 to 75.5
Minson 94.8 to 82.0

It would have been nice of them to adjust the ruck prices based on the adjusted averages.

Also, points awarded for a gather from a hit out have been decreased too therefore I think it would be a good exercise to determine which inside mids have amassed the most gathers from hit outs as they'll be affected too.

Basically in terms of rucks, gotta pick the blokes with the highest h/o adv % who also win possessions around the ground.

Wow, we really do have to find value now. I think a R1 of NicNat/Maric/Minson and a R2 of Berger/Kreuz is going to be mighty popular. Just don't think you can take the top guys knowing you're paying $50K overs from the start for any ruck who only maintains their (adjusted) average.

 

[SureBuddy]

Cheap duo for me, Leuy and Kruez. With Paddy up forward and a rookie with R/F link, in case of a disaster.

 

[CaptainChardonnay]

I still think the three mid pricers are worth considering. I cant see them going down in price and at least one of them will bust into a decent R2 option. The others can be stepping stones/cows.

 

[PACatter]

So do we think this then makes the RUC/FWD a more popular option? A DPP who spends the majority of his time forward won't see as drastic of a point cut, right?

 

[karaoke]

Perhaps, such as Dimmawitts did in '13 (Blicavs IIRC), R2 might be better off being a rookie?

Subject to availability of appropriate rookie options in rd1.

Whether it's Premo or Mid-Pricer at R1.

RichoRichoRicho

 

[TheOz]

Perhaps, such as Dimmawitts did in '13 (Blicavs IIRC), R2 might be better off being a rookie?

Subject to availability of appropriate rookie options in rd1.

Whether it's Premo or Mid-Pricer at R1.

RichoRichoRicho

Can't think of any ruck rookies who are primed to get a game off the top of my head, Nankervis maybe? They did use Derickx a fair bit last season and will probably go Pyke/Tippett as their main duo.

 

[MightyMark]

Reckon Minson might be another one who could break even on his current average, averaged 14.5 disposals and 30.1% ho adv in 2013 so is underpriced if you take his 2013 season into account. Could have just been an outlier for him though.

My issue with Minson is that last year he averaged the same amount of disposals as Goldstien.

If we start looking back to their best seasons, then Maric average 16 touches in 2012, not sure what his ho/adv percentage was, but it cant have been a huge difference.

Ruck's have been up and down the last few year, Goldy your most consistent but even he dipped in 2012. It's too hard to pick who is going to come out this year, especially now with the rule changes.

Every year the most dominant ruck (excluding Sandi and Cox) has come from obscurity, Goldy in 2011, Maric in 2012, Minson in 2013, and Jacob's last year, and all of them have dipped at some point in the following years, for what ever reason.

I'm going to go NicNat and Kruze, and hold off on the 500K plus rucks until one of them shows that they are on song for the season.

 

[TheOz]

My issue with Minson is that last year he averaged the same amount of disposals as Goldstien.

If we start looking back to their best seasons, then Maric average 16 touches in 2012, not sure what his ho/adv percentage was, but it cant have been a huge difference.

Ruck's have been up and down the last few year, Goldy your most consistent but even he dipped in 2012. It's too hard to pick who is going to come out this year, especially now with the rule changes.

Every year the most dominant ruck (excluding Sandi and Cox) has come from obscurity, Goldy in 2011, Maric in 2012, Minson in 2013, and Jacob's last year, and all of them have dipped at some point in the following years, for what ever reason.

I'm going to go NicNat and Kruze, and hold off on the 500K plus rucks until one of them shows that they are on song for the season.

I'm with you, I've conceded that trades will need to be made in the rucks so am going the cheaper route there both to allow an investment in more keepers on other lines plus to see which rucks turn out to be the better scorers under the new system.

 

[MightyMark]

I'm with you, I've conceded that trades will need to be made in the rucks so am going the cheaper route there both to allow an investment in more keepers on other lines plus to see which rucks turn out to be the better scorers under the new system.

I like Kruze over Berger as well just because I think kruze will be a bit more mobile this year. Had some atrocious games in 2012 where he had 2 games totaling 3 combined disposals, but he still managed to average 12 for the season.

At his best Berger was able to rack up a few touches as a link man, but with the new look midfield and Stefan Martin running around they would be less reliant on him so he might see a dip in his disposal average.

I would say he will be rested on the bench rather than the forward line as brisbane will be looking to add experience to some of the younger KPF, where as with Kruze they want to experiment with him in the forward line, so may be more inclined to rest him there.