To break it down: at this stage we are guaranteed at least one of Carlisle / Matho (5 gets us either). But end of the day, we want both and should negotiate no lower than a point which gives us a reasonable chance to get both
I feel we only do a downgrade if we have some form of indication that Essendon will accept the lower of the two downgraded picks + steak knives (they get late teens+, we keep 10)
With that guarantee, the downgrade is potentially a spectacular success, as there is a chance we get what we want (Carlisle and Matho) while essentially only giving up 5, 25 & steak knives
Without that guarentee, the risk is raised and we could potentially miss out on both - as Dildo may still butcher negotiations by asking for too much, and we are ultimately left with a weaker draft hand (which may see us miss both the player we want at the draft and Carlisle)
Essentially, to me the downgrade is too much of a risk without an indication that Dildo wont continue to be the a**hole he has been in the last 3 years
Personally I would rather keep 5, tell Essendon there is not a snowflakes chance in hell they get it (as the bulldogs did with 4 - Bontempelli - in the Crameri negotiations), and watch him squirm. I still say he will fold and accept what we offer come Thursday week