Analysis 2015 WCE CD Review

[Miguel Sanchez]

Not sure why people are getting upset that CD don't want the information they make money from selling to be given away for free.

It's nice of the OP to attempt to share it with us, but it's their prerogative to request that he not do so.

 

[LordHaart]

Read thread title
Entered thread
Expected to see this year's WCE team reviewing their favorite CDs
Didn't see anything like that
Disappointed
Won't buy a prospectus either now

 

[WCErevival]

They had us ranked quite highly in last years prospectus didnt they?

 

[Dark Sharks]

They had us ranked quite highly in last years prospectus didnt they?

Yeah, the usual shit about us being on the upward curve, with the right amount of balance between veterans and young talent coming through.

Unfortunately CD don't have a statistic to measure heart, or testicles, so their predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Eaglemaniac]

Yeah, the usual shit about us being on the upward curve, with the right amount of balance between veterans and young talent coming through.

Unfortunately CD don't have a statistic to measure heart, or testicles, so their predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.

Do they have one to measure Big Cox?

 

[Goldfish]

Was actually going to buy a prospectus today.

Not anymore.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

I ordered mine back on the 23rd of Dec.

Posted on Tuesday and still a no show. Not happy.


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

 

[Rids]

Well this is just toilet.

I come here intrigued by the thread title thinking there will be something interesting, and all it is Rids and his mates from CD being Asshats.

I will NEVER buy your prospectus book.

Nothing to do with me - I haven't purchased a Prospectus myself for 5 years.
I'll happily do a statistical squad analysis for you if you like ... gonna have to cut out this asshat talk though

 

[Rids]

Well this is just toilet.

I come here intrigued by the thread title thinking there will be something interesting, and all it is Rids and his mates from CD being Asshats.

I will NEVER buy your prospectus book.

Here you go DS - I've done my asshat West Coast preview - http://www.tipbetpro.net/west-coast---2015-preview.html
I'll warn you - it is entirely based on statistics ... but for what it is worth it has proved exceptionally successful in tipping winners over the years

 

[Dark Sharks]

Here you go DS - I've done my asshat West Coast preview - http://www.tipbetpro.net/west-coast---2015-preview.html
I'll warn you - it is entirely based on statistics ... but for what it is worth it has proved exceptionally successful in tipping winners over the years

I actually didn't mind that at all Rids, well done mate.

Pointed out the decline in Selwoods game, the fact our midfield is statistically on par with Melbourne's for elite players, and gave Gov the nod as the best player in the AFL with 30 games or less.

Surprised Mackenzie is still only rated 137 though. He's had 2 solid years in a row now as part of the AA 40 man squad.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Here you go DS - I've done my asshat West Coast preview - http://www.tipbetpro.net/west-coast---2015-preview.html
I'll warn you - it is entirely based on statistics ... but for what it is worth it has proved exceptionally successful in tipping winners over the years

Great read, should have its own thread really. Hits the nail right on the head, it's a good sign for your statistical model that pretty much every observation accords with what most people are saying generally about where the list is at.

Should the likes of Selwood, Wellingham and Andrew Gaff improve, not to necessarily become elite, but to at least be rated Top 100 players, West Coast will rocket into Top 4 contention.

That's the critical part. I'd add Yeo and Masten to that list (though I don't know how much they'd have to improve to get into the top 100 obviously)

 

[94_Eagles]

This. Sounds like a star in the making with a bit more time and development.

I wonder if we still would have chosen Cavka is Clem Smith was still available?

Love Cavka's attitude. His profile reminds me a lot of Daniel Chick.

His off field demeanor is the antithesis of Chick

 

[Beutbrute]

Nice analysis of the list. Love or hate Priddis, he is our top ranked player and can't really expect anything more from him than what we've been getting. I'm expecting the following guys to improve their ratings this year: Naitanui, Lycett, Selwood, Yeo, Sheed, Wellingham, Sheppard & Cripps.

One thing that jumped out at me in the round by round simulation results was us being a 65% chance v Sydney in R17.

 

[Rids]

I actually didn't mind that at all Rids, well done mate.

Pointed out the decline in Selwoods game, the fact our midfield is statistically on par with Melbourne's for elite players, and gave Gov the nod as the best player in the AFL with 30 games or less.

Surprised Mackenzie is still only rated 137 though. He's had 2 solid years in a row now as part of the AA 40 man squad.

Cheers. Unfortunately the flaw in any statistical model that biases towards attacking stats is that key position defenders (and pure midfield taggers for that matter) are punished. I would love to start incorporating marking contests won/halved/lost into the model as I know the stats are taken however at this stage they are not publicly available.
I think the best way to measure MacKenzie is compared to other KPDs and on that account he sits comfortably in a tightly matched group (with Rance, Thompson, Lake and Talia) behind stand out number 1 Harry Taylor.

 

[Rids]

Great read, should have its own thread really. Hits the nail right on the head, it's a good sign for your statistical model that pretty much every observation accords with what most people are saying generally about where the list

That's the critical part. I'd add Yeo and Masten to that list (though I don't know how much they'd have to improve to get into the top 100 obviously)

Cheers FS.
Masten actually is the TBP 3rd ranked midfielder at West Coast at the moment however I didn't include him in there because he racks up a significant portion of his points when roaming as a high half forward. Agree on Yeo although I was reluctant to mention him due to the limited number of midfield minutes he has played to date.

 

[Rids]

Nice analysis of the list. Love or hate Priddis, he is our top ranked player and can't really expect anything more from him than what we've been getting. I'm expecting the following guys to improve their ratings this year: Naitanui, Lycett, Selwood, Yeo, Sheed, Wellingham, Sheppard & Cripps.

One thing that jumped out at me in the round by round simulation results was us being a 65% chance v Sydney in R17.

Cheers. The Sydney result is more a function of my projected slide of Sydney. The Swans have a significant portion of their side past their expected statistical peak of their careers and have the worst rated 16-30 players in the league making them more vulnerable than any other side to injuries or form slumps from their stars. If they have a good run with injuries they'll likely still be in the mix for top 4 but I expect them to be more fighting for a spot at the lower reaches of the top 8. If you're interested - this was my Swans review http://www.tipbetpro.net/sydney---2015-preview.html

 

[Beutbrute]

Cheers. The Sydney result is more a function of my projected slide of Sydney. The Swans have a significant portion of their side past their expected statistical peak of their careers and have the worst rated 16-30 players in the league making them more vulnerable to any other side to injuries. If they have a good run with injuries they'll likely still be in the mix for top 4 but I expect them to be more fighting for a spot at the lower reaches of the top 8. If you're interested - this was my Swans review http://www.tipbetpro.net/sydney---2015-preview.html

Yeah I've had a good read, thanks for that, it makes very interesting reading coming from a statistical type of perspective. I also found your projection of Adelaide quite surprising

 

[Rids]

Yeah I've had a good read, thanks for that, it makes very interesting reading coming from a statistical type of perspective. I also found your projection of Adelaide quite surprising

Yeah no doubt that the rise of Adelaide and slide of Sydney were the two shocks for me when I ran the projection model. I haven't posted the Crows squad review yet but they actually have a very well balanced list. Proven match-winners across every line (Walker/Betts up forward, Dangerfield/Sloane through the middle and Talia/Smith down back), strong depth (largely as a result of poor runs with injury over the last two seasons) and a list chock full of players 'on the rise' and that are moving into the expected peak of their career (100-200 games, under age 30).

I would be stunned if Adelaide don't make the top 8 this season and expect them to challenge strongly for a top 4 spot

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Cheers. The Sydney result is more a function of my projected slide of Sydney. The Swans have a significant portion of their side past their expected statistical peak of their careers and have the worst rated 16-30 players in the league making them more vulnerable than any other side to injuries or form slumps from their stars. If they have a good run with injuries they'll likely still be in the mix for top 4 but I expect them to be more fighting for a spot at the lower reaches of the top 8. If you're interested - this was my Swans review http://www.tipbetpro.net/sydney---2015-preview.html

Interesting that they've spoken about the issue themselves.

John Longmire has backed the Sydney Swans' youth to step up this year after they were stripped of experienced depth over the past two years.

The Swans' list has been in transition over the last couple of years, with a number of mature players squeezed out under a tightening salary cap and restrictions put in place on the club over the trade period.

http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2015-02-24/longmire-backs-youth

 

[Beutbrute]

Cheers. The Sydney result is more a function of my projected slide of Sydney. The Swans have a significant portion of their side past their expected statistical peak of their careers and have the worst rated 16-30 players in the league making them more vulnerable than any other side to injuries or form slumps from their stars. If they have a good run with injuries they'll likely still be in the mix for top 4 but I expect them to be more fighting for a spot at the lower reaches of the top 8. If you're interested - this was my Swans review http://www.tipbetpro.net/sydney---2015-preview.html

With our upcoming game against Sydney, I thought this might be worth a bump

 

[SpaceClef]

With our upcoming game against Sydney, I thought this might be worth a bump

Solid bump