2016 Draft discussion

[spotthedog1]

Talk is also that our recruiters aren't overly enamoured with Allison. If a club bids too easily, they better be prepared to take him.

Fair cop. It's the downside of the academy bidding system when you're at the bottom of the ladder though. A bid at 35, and we'd have to value him in the early-20s for it to be worth matching.

 

[captainrich]

Talk is also that our recruiters aren't overly enamoured with Allison. If a club bids too easily, they better be prepared to take him.

surely has quite a bit of scope of talent to work, the tools are there would be sad to let him go and him become big somewhere else

 

[Hollow Knight]

surely has quite a bit of scope of talent to work, the tools are there would be sad to let him go and him become big somewhere else

If he gets a bid in the third round I imagine we'll match. The way we have set ourselves up in this draft makes me feel like we are double-daring teams to bid on our academy guys in the second round. Either that or we just don't rate them that highly.

 

[carnthemlions]

If we do get McCluggage then we will surely be taking a small forward with one of our other 3 picks, Fagan stated thats a priority for him, and none of these phantom drafts have us taking a small forward. If Simpkin is gone at 16 which he probably will, we surely then get Bolton with pick 21/22.

There are a few rumours around go home factor around Bolton, not sure if we'd take that risk.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Pretty obvious from our trading of picks how we value Allison and Watson I would have thought.

 

[captainrich]

There are a few rumours around go home factor around Bolton, not sure if we'd take that risk.

yeahh think i read somewhere we are not really rating or considering WA boys

 

[captainrich]

Pretty obvious from our trading of picks how we value Allison and Watson I would have thought.

or potentially we do not rate the talent available in next years draft

 

[JasperBeardly]

Fair cop. It's the downside of the academy bidding system when you're at the bottom of the ladder though. A bid at 35, and we'd have to value him in the early-20s for it to be worth matching.

Given we get a 20% discount on the points we have to pay for academy kids, wouldn't this be the other way around? ie for a bid at 35 you'd only have to value him in the mid 40's to match?

 

[jackess]

Doesn't any third or fourth round deficits come off the picks we traded to Collingwood?

 

[SizeMatters]

If he gets a bid in the third round I imagine we'll match. The way we have set ourselves up in this draft makes me feel like we are double-daring teams to bid on our academy guys in the second round. Either that or we just don't rate them that highly.

That's my take on it as well. Same could he said for the Suns who Iirc traded out a second rounder this year for one next year when on paper you would think that pick would have been great for Scheer.

 

[spotthedog1]

Given we get a 20% discount on the points we have to pay for academy kids, wouldn't this be the other way around? ie for a bid at 35 you'd only have to value him in the mid 40's to match?

Nope.

Bid comes at 35 - 522 points. 20% discount becomes 418 points payable.
Pick 35 is in the 2nd round. At this stage, we have no points to pay, so it comes off next year's second rounder.
If we come 16th next year, our second rounder is pick 21, worth 878.
Pick 21 (878) loses 418 points to become pick 38 (465 points).

You lose it off the pick in the round in which the bid is received, not your next pick. 20% discount is great, but "the round in which the bid is received" is a killer for teams at the bottom of the ladder. Fine for teams near the top though.

 

[lionshine]

I wonder if we could end up with a live selection late in the draft tonight? If so we might look at a small forward prospect like Liam Ryan or Willie Rioli.

 

[jackess]

I wonder if we could end up with a live selection late in the draft tonight? If so we might look at a small forward prospect like Liam Ryan or Willie Rioli.

Could very well happen. We could also leave a list spot open.

 

[briztoon]

My concern with McCluggage is that he doesn't have the frame and athletic gifts that will allow his game to succeed at AFL level.

He has narrow shoulders, some one else mentioned thin wrists. My concern is he doesn't have the frame to fill out to handle the rigours to play an inside and outside game at AFL level. He doesn't have top end speed. He's about to step in to an environment where everyone is bigger, and faster, and more intense.

He's not going to have the same space and time.

You see it in many sports at junior level where kids with elite skills fail at the pro level because they don't have the body, athleticism and speed to compete.

If you take a good look at Ainsworth, not only does he already have a developed body, he's got long arms and large hands, to go with elite speed. He's got the physical gifts to succeed, along with the game sense to play multiple positions.

McCluggage could be special, he could also be found out.

 

[spotthedog1]

Could very well happen. We could also leave a list spot open.

Absolutely. Conole said in his draft preview that the club intends to take either 6, or 5 and a DFA.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Nope.

Bid comes at 35 - 522 points. 20% discount becomes 418 points payable.

It's actually 522 - 197 = 325 points payable.

That would turn pick 21 next year into 34.

Minor difference but yeah. Definitely feels like we are sending a message to other teams that if you bid in the second round you better be prepared to take them.

 

[JasperBeardly]

Nope.

Bid comes at 35 - 522 points. 20% discount becomes 418 points payable.
Pick 35 is in the 2nd round. At this stage, we have no points to pay, so it comes off next year's second rounder.
If we come 16th next year, our second rounder is pick 21, worth 878.
Pick 21 (878) loses 418 points to become pick 38 (465 points).

You lose it off the pick in the round in which the bid is received, not your next pick. 20% discount is great, but "the round in which the bid is received" is a killer for teams at the bottom of the ladder. Fine for teams near the top though.

Yeah, I get where you're coming from now . I should know better than to reply to a post without reading the lead up to it.

 

[spotthedog1]

My concern with McCluggage is that he doesn't have the frame and athletic gifts that will allow his game to succeed at AFL level.

He has narrow shoulders, some one else mentioned thin wrists. My concern is he doesn't have the frame to fill out to handle the rigours to play an inside and outside game at AFL level. He doesn't have top end speed. He's about to step in to an environment where everyone is bigger, and faster, and more intense.

He's not going to have the same space and time.

You see it in many sports at junior level where kids with elite skills fail at the pro level because they don't have the body, athleticism and speed to compete.

If you take a good look at Ainsworth, not only does he already have a developed body, he's got long arms and large hands, to go with elite speed. He's got the physical gifts to succeed, along with the game sense to play multiple positions.

McCluggage could be special, he could also be found out.

Devil's advocate:

McCluggage isn't developed physically yet. When he gets physically developed he'll be able to compete. Ainsworth is already physically developed, but has been versing undeveloped players. He might be found out when he has to verse other developed player.

Not saying that's the case, but there are concerns either way.

 

[jackess]

My concern with McCluggage is that he doesn't have the frame and athletic gifts that will allow his game to succeed at AFL level.

He has narrow shoulders, some one else mentioned thin wrists. My concern is he doesn't have the frame to fill out to handle the rigours to play an inside and outside game at AFL level. He doesn't have top end speed. He's about to step in to an environment where everyone is bigger, and faster, and more intense.

He's not going to have the same space and time.

You see it in many sports at junior level where kids with elite skills fail at the pro level because they don't have the body, athleticism and speed to compete.

If you take a good look at Ainsworth, not only does he already have a developed body, he's got long arms and large hands, to go with elite speed. He's got the physical gifts to succeed, along with the game sense to play multiple positions.

McCluggage could be special, he could also be found out.

McCluggage bulked up a fair bit over the year. He was a lot bigger in the all stars game than in the earlier games. He won't be a Tom Bell sized mid but he's great through traffic.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

yeahh think i read somewhere we are not really rating or considering WA boys

Anderson was one but didn't elaborate. I can understand why we might be reluctant to draft an individual based on a concern they would be a flight risk, but not just because they come from a particular state or region. I'm sure that's not our thinking anyway. If it were, we should be equally nervous about drafting South Australians.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

or potentially we do not rate the talent available in next years draft

Ideal scenario would be its just used to help match Ballendens bid, get in early with our 2 first rounders and have Ballenden bid on just after.

 

[captainrich]

Anderson was one but didn't elaborate. I can understand why we might be reluctant to draft an individual based on a concern they would be a flight risk, but not just because they come from a particular state or region. I'm sure that's not our thinking anyway. If it were, we should be equally nervous about drafting South Australians.

guess we dont have many WA boys on our list currently besides Paperone? who has also had his share of issues (stayed strong with the club though top bloke) but i guess were probably hesitant to bring more WA boys in given there is no connection there with any of the players

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

It's actually 522 - 197 = 325 points payable.

That would turn pick 21 next year into 34.

Minor difference but yeah. Definitely feels like we are sending a message to other teams that if you bid in the second round you better be prepared to take them.

I don't follow. Is it not 20% which would make STD's calculation correct.

 

[Hollow Knight]

I don't follow. Is it not 20% which would make STD's calculation correct.

All bids after the first round have a fixed 197 point discount.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Not long to go now thank goodness.