2016 Forwards

[FAILTOSUCCEED]

Played around with my team a bit seeing what my team would look like with and without Mills in the midfield...

Had under 440K to spend on a forward. After having a look at Walters, Vickery, Stanley, Stringer, Hall, Elliot and Sinclair I was underwhelmed at the options. Until I had a look at Aaron Vandenberg and analysed his statistics from last season.

Read through some training reports on the Dees board (one of the most recent posts suggests he is 1.5 times the player he was last season) and was apparently in their top 3-4 players in their most recent intra club. In addition to this apparently he's been the big standout during stoppage drills at training on a consistent basis. Great job security and will play that rotating through HFF/midfield role that he played last year which can be SC gold especially for a guy of his size who can take a mark and win contested ball.

24 years old this season, and averaged 82.4 last season if you take out the sub affected games.

Call me crazy, but if I have to try and fit Mills into my side, Vandenberg will slot in as my F4 as POD, and i'll be hoping he can average 95+.

I will add - the only reason I'm even exploring him as an option is being locked into a situation where I have less than 440K to spend on a forward. In a perfect world, I wouldn't select anyone priced under Franklin at 470K, but if I'm forced to, I'm jumping on the Vandenberg wagon.

You're crazy.

 

[KenTucker]

Played around with my team a bit seeing what my team would look like with and without Mills in the midfield...

Had under 440K to spend on a forward. After having a look at Walters, Vickery, Stanley, Stringer, Hall, Elliot and Sinclair I was underwhelmed at the options. Until I had a look at Aaron Vandenberg and analysed his statistics from last season.

Read through some training reports on the Dees board (one of the most recent posts suggests he is 1.5 times the player he was last season) and was apparently in their top 3-4 players in their most recent intra club. In addition to this apparently he's been the big standout during stoppage drills at training on a consistent basis. Great job security and will play that rotating through HFF/midfield role that he played last year which can be SC gold especially for a guy of his size who can take a mark and win contested ball.

24 years old this season, and averaged 82.4 last season if you take out the sub affected games.

Call me crazy, but if I have to try and fit Mills into my side, Vandenberg will slot in as my F4 as POD, and i'll be hoping he can average 95+.

I will add - the only reason I'm even exploring him as an option is being locked into a situation where I have less than 440K to spend on a forward. In a perfect world, I wouldn't select anyone priced under Franklin at 470K, but if I'm forced to, I'm jumping on the Vandenberg wagon.

Have you posted your team?

 

[Souup]

Have you posted your team?

I have in another thread, but...



17K in the bank. Obviously this is the no-Mills team.

With Mills in the team...
Johnson -> Mills
Franklin -> Vandenberg

 

[KenTucker]

I have in another thread, but...

View attachment 218244

17K in the bank. Obviously this is the no-Mills team.

With Mills in the team...
Johnson -> Mills
Franklin -> Vandenberg

I like this no Mills team.
If you want Mills or a 200k rookie in mids I would downgrade Birch to one of these: Esky, Williams, Sherridan, Lonergan or even spend less and get someone like D Howe.

By the way my team is remarkably similar to yours except I have Mills and Parish.

 

[DraftPunk]

I'm starting to strongly consider Tom Lynch from Gold Coast. Avg 89 last year from 43 goals, expecting him to be in the running for Coleman this year.

Also I think the interchange cap will mean key forwards will increase their output. More isolation and one-on-ones, more TOG, more goals.

The Suns also play Essendon, Brisbane & Carlton in the first 4 weeks. Could get off to on absolute flyer.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I'm starting to strongly consider Tom Lynch from Gold Coast. Avg 89 last year from 43 goals, expecting him to be in the running for Coleman this year.

Also I think the interchange cap will mean key forwards will increase their output. More isolation and one-on-ones, more TOG, more goals.

The Suns also play Essendon, Brisbane & Carlton in the first 4 weeks. Could get off to on absolute flyer.

Unproven KPP is madness at that price. Sure you'll get the odd 140 but the 40's when he's locked down will cost you games. IMO. I just don't see how it's an option when you can get someone like Dusty for another 100 and know what you're getting and who's still improving as well but from a much higher base.

 

[jjsmitty8]

Anyone considering Tom Lynch from Adelaide?

 

[Mr Bombastic]

These are De Goeys stats from our intra club. I know it's only a practice match but still very impressive from 3 qrts of footy. Awkwardly priced at 318k though, could be a good POD.

De Goey: 15k 8m 15h 7I50 2R50 6cl
legend: k=kick, m=mark, h=handball, I50=inside 50, R50= rebound 50, HO=hitout and cl=clearance)

 

[Gribnoor]

These are De Goeys stats from our intra club. I know it's only a practice match but still very impressive from 3 qrts of footy. Awkwardly priced at 318k

De Goey: 15k 8m 15h 7I50 2R50 6cl
legend: k=kick, m=mark, h=handball, I50=inside 50, R50= rebound 50, HO=hitout and cl=clearance)

Libba and Crouch better options at same price - you going all three? Tough to justify in midfield

 

[Mr Bombastic]

Libba and Crouch better options at same price - you going all three? Tough to justify in midfield

I'm only running Libba at the moment, strongly considering De Goey as a forward though. Depending on his midfield minutes he could score very well.
We were 15th for centre clearances last year and clearances seem to be one of De Goey's specialties so I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend a large chunk of time in the middle.

 

[Gribnoor]

I'm only running Libba at the moment, strongly considering De Goey as a forward though. Depending on his midfield minutes he could score very well.
We were 15th for centre clearances last year and clearances seem to be one of De Goey's specialties so I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend a large chunk of time in the middle.

Didn't realise he was a FWD option, that is interesting. Still, at that bracket stiff completion from the other options.

 

[Super Hans]

These are De Goeys stats from our intra club. I know it's only a practice match but still very impressive from 3 qrts of footy. Awkwardly priced at 318k though, could be a good POD.

De Goey: 15k 8m 15h 7I50 2R50 6cl
legend: k=kick, m=mark, h=handball, I50=inside 50, R50= rebound 50, HO=hitout and cl=clearance)

I really like DeGoey. There's always one player who breaks our massively in their second year (Bontempelli, Macrae, Wingard, Bennell) and I think he defiantly has that potential.

Only thing is, will he get that opportunity? Pendles, Swan, Sidey, Treloar, Adams, Greenwood... not a lot of midfield time for him there. But I still think he can go 85+.

 

[Flandersss]

I really like DeGoey. There's always one player who breaks our massively in their second year (Bontempelli, Macrae, Wingard, Bennell) and I think he defiantly has that potential.

Only thing is, will he get that opportunity? Pendles, Swan, Sidey, Treloar, Adams, Greenwood... not a lot of midfield time for him there. But I still think he can go 85+.

I'd prefer Angus Brayshaw over De Goey.

More mid time for sure.

 

[Souup]

I like this no Mills team.
If you want Mills or a 200k rookie in mids I would downgrade Birch to one of these: Esky, Williams, Sherridan, Lonergan or even spend less and get someone like D Howe.

By the way my team is remarkably similar to yours except I have Mills and Parish.

I agree mate, I'd prefer to go without Mills, but I may not have a choice if he's looking really good. As I mentioned, I'll only pick Vandenberg if I feel I have no choice but to pick Mills in the mids.

For anyone who gives a crap (I doubt there are any, but this is an SC forum so i'll post some of my research anyway for people to consider), I've done some more analysis on Vandenbergs scoring last season...

First number is his SC score, second is the amount Melbourne lost/won by.

LOSSES
72 45pt
65 35pt
80 68pt
56 38pt
37 105pt
74 61pt
40 (Subbed at HT due to injury, on his way to ~90) 25pt
97 9pt
20 (Sub at 3QT) 37pt

60.11 average
62.62 average (Minus sub affected 40 point game)

WINS
99 26pt
107 32pt
131 39pt
90 24pt
81 23pt

101.6 average

I know 5 wins isn't a huge sample size, but if you want to add in that 9pt loss and game where he was injured about halfway through the 2nd when he was on 40 points (and let me give him 90 points assuming he plays out the rest of the game) and then subbed, he's averaging 99.2 over those 5 wins and 2 sub-30 point losses.

As you can see, there's a massive correlation between Melbourne's performances and his scoring. Melbourne play the following teams in their first 11 games..
(First number are my odds of Melbourne winning)
GWS - 40/60
Essendon 70/30
North Melbourne 20/80
Collingwood 35/65
Richmond 35/65
St Kilda 50/50
Gold Coast 50/50
Western Bulldogs 40/60
Brisbane 50/50
Port Adelaide 40/60
Hawthorn 10/100

I'm tipping they'll be 3-7 at worst, and more likely 4-6 after 10 games. I wouldn't expect them to be blown out of the water in any of those 6 losses either

I think a combination of Melbourne losing less games by 30+ points, winning a few more games than last year and Vandenberg getting a slight increase of minutes in the midfield would mean he'd become a solid selection, verging on a 95 average. He's 24 years old, with another pre-season under his belt (apparently he didn't leave the club over the off-season and continued to go to the gym, has had a great pre-season and stood out in match simulation and apparently been in the best 3-4 in Melbourne's intra clubs). Even if he doesn't increase his midfield minutes, he still averaged over 100 in Melbourne's wins playing mostly HFF occasionally getting minutes in the midfield. I'll obviously be watching Vandenberg very closely over the NAB games.

Regardless of whether or not you care about Vandenberg, at the very least I think Melbourne's first 10 games make their players look more attractive. For example, I think Gawn will have a field day against most those teams rucks, and if Melbourne can win 4-5 of them, I'm assuming he'll be averaging 110+ at the very least.

 

[nameless]

Great analysis. Although it doesn't convince be to get him, it's good food for thought.

 

[Souup]

Great analysis. Although it doesn't convince be to get him, it's good food for thought.

Cheers mate. Food for thought is all I was aiming for...

Well that and trying to convince people I really wasn't COMPLETELY crazy

 

[Super Hans]

You are being extremely kind to Melbourne with those odds.

 

[Souup]

You are being extremely kind to Melbourne with those odds.

They beat Gold Coast, Richmond, WB, Geelong, Brisbane, Collingwood and GWS last season.

I find it interesting that many people are happy to assume teams like GWS, Gold Coast, Richmond, Brisbane will just naturally improve season-to-season yet aren't willing to say the same about Melbourne. Roos has worked wonders at that club, and I think they'll continue to steadily improve.

They finished above 5 other teams last season, 4 of which they play in the first 10 games. They beat 3/4 of those last season, the only team they didn't beat was Essendon who many tip to win the spoon. In addition to this, they also face Richmond, WB and Collingwood in the first 10 games, who they beat last season.

 

[Super Hans]

So dogs and port are 40/60 but north are 20/80, you do know dogs finished above north last year? Same with Richmond and they're 35/65.

Melbourne won 5 games last year. Are GWS 50/50 with Hawks?

 

[buttox]

So dogs and port are 40/60 but north are 20/80, you do know dogs finished above north last year? Same with Richmond and they're 35/65.

Melbourne won 5 games last year. Are GWS 50/50 with Hawks?

im not sure the dees have the players vs norths tall game. but understand where you are coming from.

 

[Souup]

So dogs and port are 40/60 but north are 20/80, you do know dogs finished above north last year? Same with Richmond and they're 35/65.

Melbourne won 5 games last year. Are GWS 50/50 with Hawks?

Port are 40/60 based on it being played at the M.C.G.
I expect the Dogs to drop off a little this season and finish 7-11th or so as a result of inconsistency in being a young team, and so the odds I give are based on that. They could very well continue and push top 4 - I'm ok with someone else making that assessment, but it's not how I see it.

It's my personal rough assessment, if you disagree that's fair enough.

Melbourne won 7 games not 5.

And obviously I wouldn't give GWs-Hawthorn 50/50. Despite Melbourne beating Richmond last season, I only gave Melbourne 35/65 against them, ditto Collingwood.

 

[Super Hans]

Still don't know how you can have Norf as basically a certainty and teams who finished above them not. Anyway, it doesn't matter.

 

[Krujan]

I really like DeGoey. There's always one player who breaks our massively in their second year (Bontempelli, Macrae, Wingard, Bennell) and I think he defiantly has that potential.

Only thing is, will he get that opportunity? Pendles, Swan, Sidey, Treloar, Adams, Greenwood... not a lot of midfield time for him there. But I still think he can go 85+.

You forgot Cripps.

Swan's going to play forward a lot this year from what I've heard from the Pies. Greenwood, I would think is borderline best 22 although I'll stand corrected if that's not the case. If deGoey can rotate through the forward line and midfield along with Swan and Pendles, no reason why he won't go 85+ so long as he can keep up consistent form week to week.

 

[LeverPuller]

Port are 40/60 based on it being played at the M.C.G.
I expect the Dogs to drop off a little this season and finish 7-11th or so as a result of inconsistency in being a young team, and so the odds I give are based on that. They could very well continue and push top 4 - I'm ok with someone else making that assessment, but it's not how I see it.

It's my personal rough assessment, if you disagree that's fair enough.

Melbourne won 7 games not 5.

And obviously I wouldn't give GWs-Hawthorn 50/50. Despite Melbourne beating Richmond last season, I only gave Melbourne 35/65 against them, ditto Collingwood.

Port should still be about that but the game itself is in the Alice.

 

[LeverPuller]

So dogs and port are 40/60 but north are 20/80, you do know dogs finished above north last year? Same with Richmond and they're 35/65.

Melbourne won 5 games last year. Are GWS 50/50 with Hawks?

North game is in Tassie plus Dees haven't beaten them in ten years