AFL 2017 - AFL Round 14

[Keystone agony]

Bombers vs Sydney (Bombers fan - bias ?)

Surely the bombers are a decent chance. Why? Sydney going that well? They lost to the hawks at the scg 3 weeks ago. They were down by 6 goals vs Richmond and looked deplorable - Richmond then thought theyd won it. They did hand the dogs a pasting in Sydney but the dogs arent going that well and certainly not at that time.

Zak Jones out - big out

The bombers seem to be going pretty well. Smashed Eagles and Port who both sit inside the top 7. They also have beaten 3 top 7 sides only loseing to the other 3 in Melbourne, GWS (GWS home), Richmond at MCG by a couple of kicks the latter 2 by 15-17 points each.

Sydney kill the SCG?

Do they. They lost to Port. Beat collingwood when they were terrible by a point there. Lost to a horrible hawks there. GWS belted them by 7 goals.
So theyve beaten Brisbane by and the buldogs 2 weeks ago there and the pies by 1 point.

Sydneys Awesome last 6 Weeks?
Really theyve beaten Buldogs at SCG, Brisbane at SCG, Stkilda, North and the tigers the only true good win from a 6 goal down proposition.

My concern with Dons
Only been really good at Etihad which is a fast deck and suits the dons right now. Is the Watson, Heppell, Goddard, Zerrett, Myers, Zaharakis midfield got enough killer instinct and hard enough to match Sydneys JPK, Parker, Hannebery, Heeney, Papley midfield ?

Speed and Space suits the dons and the SCG certainly isnt that field however from this years results its hardly a strong favour to the swans aswell. If the dons big bodied midfield can stand up then they win.

My Bet: Essendon Line +17.5 @1.92 (Ladbrokes)

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Heard where? How accurate is the source and what is the sources history?

It's all over the Big Footy Essendon club board. Someone mentioned it there. It's gained legs since then.

 

[benno_]

Random Stats for the stats men

Top 6 Q1 winners this season
Bombers 10/12
Port 8/12
Swans 7/12
Eagles 7/12
Tigers 7/12
Giants 7/12

6 sides at 6/12

Yeah bombers starts have been awesome. Swans ranking equal 3rd is a slight concern, but some other stats on them:

Swans last 3 opening quarters
-Lost by 29 vs Tigers (Swans didn’t even kick a goal)
-Won by 6 vs Dogs (WB rank last in first quarters)
-Lost by 15 vs Hawks (Swans were down 22 at one stage)

-Swans have won 1 of their last 3 first quarters
-Swans have kicked total of just 4 goals in their last 3 firsts.
-Bombers are on a 6 game first quarter winning streak
-Bombers have kicked 18 goals in their last three first quarters (compared to the Swans 4).
-Swans are on a 6 game second half win streak

I really like the Bombers chances of an early 4 goal lead and payout, with a Swans comeback as the game goes on.

 

[Keystone agony]

It's all over the Big Footy Essendon club board. Someone mentioned it there. It's gained legs since then.

Francis likely to play who could cause headaches very early at least. Not many players miss important games due to a 'finger' usually players play with a broken finger. No doubt he might try and keep off it with training so maybe hasnt trained ball skills as much and has gained legs.

Unless the finger is really bad.

 

[Keystone agony]

Is the 4 goal payout just Sportsbet?

From memory some jumped on board its been such a success for them. Like Bet365 ect?

Arent sportsbet only picking certain games now aswell?

 

[mookieb]

Bombers vs Sydney (Bombers fan - bias ?)

Surely the bombers are a decent chance. Why? Sydney going that well? They lost to the hawks at the scg 3 weeks ago. They were down by 6 goals vs Richmond and looked deplorable - Richmond then thought theyd won it. They did hand the dogs a pasting in Sydney but the dogs arent going that well and certainly not at that time.

Zak Jones out - big out

The bombers seem to be going pretty well. Smashed Eagles and Port who both sit inside the top 7. They also have beaten 3 top 7 sides only loseing to the other 3 in Melbourne, GWS (GWS home), Richmond at MCG by a couple of kicks the latter 2 by 15-17 points each.

Sydney kill the SCG?

Do they. They lost to Port. Beat collingwood when they were terrible by a point there. Lost to a horrible hawks there. GWS belted them by 7 goals.
So theyve beaten Brisbane by and the buldogs 2 weeks ago there and the pies by 1 point.

Sydneys Awesome last 6 Weeks?
Really theyve beaten Buldogs at SCG, Brisbane at SCG, Stkilda, North and the tigers the only true good win from a 6 goal down proposition.

My concern with Dons
Only been really good at Etihad which is a fast deck and suits the dons right now. Is the Watson, Heppell, Goddard, Zerrett, Myers, Zaharakis midfield got enough killer instinct and hard enough to match Sydneys JPK, Parker, Hannebery, Heeney, Papley midfield ?

Speed and Space suits the dons and the SCG certainly isnt that field however from this years results its hardly a strong favour to the swans aswell. If the dons big bodied midfield can stand up then they win.

My Bet: Essendon Line +17.5 @1.92 (Ladbrokes)

So I had a look at this game today and would disagree with some of your assessment.

Personally I attribute the majority of the losses to the Swans to a lack of personnel due to injuries. Once these key players started returning and Syd started to gain confidence they have been fantastic for 5 of their last 6 games.

Checking the stats Syd is better than Ess in contested possession, but this reverses for uncontested possession. Thus will a quick deck at Etihad might suit Ess the SCG is the reverse of this.

I'm not sure I have a great handle on Ess. They have been relatively poor on the road with average performances against Freo, Bris and Ade, but pretty good against GWS. They seem to have ambushed two interstate teams travelling in Port and WC or were they simply too good?

Ratings wise I consider Syd in current form around 5th and Ess around 10th (although it is incredibly close this year). Plus HGA plus matchup advantages around contested footy.

I'm pegging it around 3 goals to the Swans.

 

[freo_leo29]

Is the 4 goal payout just Sportsbet?

From memory some jumped on board its been such a success for them. Like Bet365 ect?

Arent sportsbet only picking certain games now aswell?

Bet365 started it with 30 and sportsbet copied and beat it with 24 the week after, since then bet365 has reduced to 24 and theirs runs longer til the end of july

 

[Oraz]

So I had a look at this game today and would disagree with some of your assessment.

Personally I attribute the majority of the losses to the Swans to a lack of personnel due to injuries. Once these key players started returning and Syd started to gain confidence they have been fantastic for 5 of their last 6 games.

Checking the stats Syd is better than Ess in contested possession, but this reverses for uncontested possession. Thus will a quick deck at Etihad might suit Ess the SCG is the reverse of this.

I'm not sure I have a great handle on Ess. They have been relatively poor on the road with average performances against Freo, Bris and Ade, but pretty good against GWS. They seem to have ambushed two interstate teams travelling in Port and WC or were they simply too good?

Ratings wise I consider Syd in current form around 5th and Ess around 10th (although it is incredibly close this year). Plus HGA plus matchup advantages around contested footy.

I'm pegging it around 3 goals to the Swans.

So a side that has in their last 5 games;

Defeated Port (4th)
Lost to Giants (2nd)
Lost to Richmond (6th)
Defeated Eagles (7th)
Defeated Cats (3rd)

Is ranked 10th form wise?

 

[mookieb]

So a side that has in their last 5 games;

Defeated Port (4th)
Lost to Giants (2nd)
Lost to Richmond (6th)
Defeated Eagles (7th)
Defeated Cats (3rd)

Is ranked 10th form wise?

To clarify I consider Syd in it's current state (ie with most of their players back) the 5th best team and Ess around 10th. Of course the closeness of the teams around Ess means they could rise easily if I am wrong, but at this stage I don't rate them as highly as Coll, WB, WC, Melb etc. Their results of 3W 3L over their last 6 indicate a middle of the road team (as does their season tally).

I think they are the sort of team that if you let them play their game they can certainly cut you to shreds. I'm also mystified why teams don't tag Merrett who is an absolute gun.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I like Collingwood at $2.05 and Sydney v Essendon under 180.5

 

[Keystone agony]

To clarify I consider Syd in it's current state (ie with most of their players back) the 5th best team and Ess around 10th. Of course the closeness of the teams around Ess means they could rise easily if I am wrong, but at this stage I don't rate them as highly as Coll, WB, WC, Melb etc. Their results of 3W 3L over their last 6 indicate a middle of the road team (as does their season tally).

I think they are the sort of team that if you let them play their game they can certainly cut you to shreds. I'm also mystified why teams don't tag Merrett who is an absolute gun.

You need to take into account who the teams have played. which your failing to do.

 

[maskmcgee]

It's all over the Big Footy Essendon club board. Someone mentioned it there. It's gained legs since then.

It hasn't gained shit. One user said it out of nowhere, when asked to provide a source they refused, and they appear to be the only person on the planet privy to an incredible amount of knolegde including the severity and exact time out for this alledged 'injury'. It's complete bullshit until someone reports it.

 

[FavoriteSun]

Any thoughts on the o/u 190.5 for Hawks/Adelaide? i feel like it's a blowout score for adelaide but idk if the hawks can score over 70

 

[hedgedhog]

So a side that has in their last 5 games;

Defeated Port (4th)
Lost to Giants (2nd)
Lost to Richmond (6th)
Defeated Eagles (7th)
Defeated Cats (3rd)

Is ranked 10th form wise?

How are you so heavy on the Swans then? 8u@1.45 only makes sense if Essendon are around 10th like he's reasoned yet you think Cale Hooker being a late out is like he's rated the second coming of Buddy Franklin or something.

 

[targett]

Powerhouse West Coast forward Josh Kennedy has suffered a setback in his comeback bid from a calf injury and looks certain to miss a blockbuster clash with Melbourne in Perth on Saturday.

 

[Derzzy]

Hi Derzy

Great idea.

Some other theories that have been thrown around are:

Teams not covering the spread after a trip to Perth (rationale - longest road trip leaves teams drained)

In regards to bye rounds I would be interested in:

1. How many team cover the spread the week before a bye and
2. Performance of teams after they come back from the bye

The rationale would for the byes would be teams having one eye on their upcoming holiday and for the 2nd instance I assume the teams would come back refreshed and ready to go.

Cheers.

Cheers for that. I'll have a look at work today or tomorrow and let you know!

 

[AFLFootyChick]

It hasn't gained shit. One user said it out of nowhere, when asked to provide a source they refused, and they appear to be the only person on the planet privy to an incredible amount of knolegde including the severity and exact time out for this alledged 'injury'. It's complete bullshit until someone reports it.

Two subsequent pages of talk about this supposed injury = "it's gained legs" - take a chill pill. Geesh!

 

[targett]

Returning perth hoodoo......... or not !?!?

This trend maybe starting to level out.

Season tally 7/10 not covered
Last five 2/5 not covered

This week its the Cats v Freo , The line -38.5 not getting covered is tempting .

Cats Av winning margain at Simmonds 15 pts
Cats have covered 2/3 lines at Simmonds
Freo have covered 2/2 lines in Melbourne this season winning both games

 

[langdon19]

Returning perth hoodoo......... or not !?!?

This week its the Cats v Freo , The line -38.5 not getting covered is tempting .

Cats Av winning margain at Simmonds 15 pts
Cats have covered 2/3 lines at Simmonds
Freo have covered 2/2 lines in Melbourne this season winning both games

Any thoughts on the +38.5 line moving further, need to middle some of my -22.5
If Sandi does not play then surely this blows out further?

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Returning perth hoodoo......... or not !?!?

This trend maybe starting to level out.

Season tally 7/10 not covered
Last five 2/5 not covered

This week its the Cats v Freo , The line -38.5 not getting covered is tempting .

Cats Av winning margain at Simmonds 15 pts
Cats have covered 2/3 lines at Simmonds
Freo have covered 2/2 lines in Melbourne this season winning both games

Hawkins didn't got to Perth due to his suspension, so the Perth hoodoo doesn't apply to him. He's inconsistent though...if he's "on" and he can kick a bag, the Cats will cover IMO. Freo just don't travel well, and at Simmonds, it could get ugly.

 

[targett]

Any thoughts on the +38.5 line moving further, need to middle some of my -22.5
If Sandi does not play then surely this blows out further?

I'd wait for teams for sure just keep an eye on it between now and then you may start losing the 38.5 if so just take it

 

[targett]

T.Mitchell 30+ $1.50 / B365 11/12

 

[AFLFootyChick]

JACK WATTS INJURY NEWS

MELBOURNE forward Jack Watts looks certain to miss Saturday's clash with West Coast in Perth after failing to complete training this morning.
Battling a hamstring complaint, Watts left the track early after completing only some light running. He was seen hunched over speaking to staff before leaving the field.

So, with Watts, Jones and Hogan not playing, even with Gawn back, WC look the goods at home.

 

[Boxhead182]

Tom Mitchell over 32.5 $1.87 SB

 

[AFLFootyChick]

It hasn't gained shit. One user said it out of nowhere, when asked to provide a source they refused, and they appear to be the only person on the planet privy to an incredible amount of knolegde including the severity and exact time out for this alledged 'injury'. It's complete bullshit until someone reports it.