AFL 2017 - AFL Round 14

[hedgedhog]

Made the rookie error of rushing without really thinking and cashing out my extra 5U on Roos for a 0.55U loss. I then realised I probably had a solid case to have the bet cancelled/refunded since the T&C's didn't mention anything about the promo not applying which is what enticed me to place the bet with them in the first place. Spoke to customer service to see if I could be reimbursed for the loss and they said I could have asked for it to be cancelled, but because I already cashed out I was no longer eligible for a cancelation (annoying, but kind of understandable).

So yeah incase anyone else had 2+ bets on the same market and mainly did because of the special, it might be worth asking for the 2nd bet to be cancelled if you mainly did it for the special and don't want it if its not eligible for the promo.

Interesting, I will have to check my accounts but I'm pretty sure I got paid out on the GC ML against Melbourne a few weeks ago. Placed separate bets on the same account from memory.

 

[hedgedhog]

In to +33.5 now and B365 have lined up too.

Bought the rumour and probably will leave my position until team lineup releases to sell the fact. Camp the release and you should be able to hit 33.5 before market catches on whether Kelly is in or out of the squad.

 

[targett]

Bought the rumour and probably will leave my position until team lineup releases to sell the fact. Camp the release and you should be able to hit 33.5 before market catches on whether Kelly is in or out of the squad.

Yes im holding off on the line too.

 

[Sabbathen]

T

Just a heads up, SB 24 point promo only applies to your first bet on the games market (even though the T&C's don't state it). I put some more on North but then noticed it didn't have the promo icon in my pending bets so I asked customer service and they said its only your first bet that counts.

B365 paid out my 2 separate stakes on Saints H2H last week though once they were up 24.

Thats weird, I asked the exact same question on the live chat last night and was told it applied to every game... they email the chat log after, I'll see if I can find it

 

[Sabbathen]

I am in NSW so our promo is actually only 23 points but the terms and conditions are the same otherwise.
Will be following it up with them if not the case...

 

[targett]

Random Stats for the stats men

Top 6 Q1 winners this season
Bombers 10/12
Port 8/12
Swans 7/12
Eagles 7/12
Tigers 7/12
Giants 7/12

6 sides at 6/12

 

[Keystone agony]

Many were reporting that Kelly may well be fine to play and also with concerns over Rockliff groin/illness/shoulder surely that -33.5 GWS is value now

I have a feeling GWS might be giving some players 2 weeks off or something ?

From memory Fremantle had a -20 odd line for lions game at gabba

 

[Oraz]

Anyone like the pies?
Port are yet to win a game against a top 8 side and were belted by essendon (an average side) on the road a few weeks ago.

If elliot gets up i'm going big on them

 

[benno_]

View attachment 383696

I am in NSW so our promo is actually only 23 points but the terms and conditions are the same otherwise.
Will be following it up with them if not the case...

Yeah it applies to every game, but only on your first bet on that game. What I did was bet on North yetserday, but then decided to increase how much I had on North and placed a second bet on them today. So I had 2 bets on North H2H for this upcoming round. I was then told only the first one I placed was eligible for the special.

Most of their promos only apply to your first bet on the game, but I checked the terms and conditions specifically for this before placing the second bet and it said nothing which is the annoying part. Since it said nothing about 'first bet only' I proceeded to place my second bet but was then later told via chat only the first one would count for the promo.

 

[freo_leo29]

Has Cats at 1.19 and Freo at 4.75 on sportsbet for me

Sorry I took Freo at bet365 as they have the same promo and it was paying 5.75

I never bet both sides on the same bookie

 

[Sabbathen]

Yeah it applies to every game, but only on your first bet on that game. What I did was bet on North yetserday, but then decided to increase how much I had on North and placed a second bet on them today. So I had 2 bets on North H2H for this upcoming round. I was then told only the first one I placed was eligible for the special.

Most of their promos only apply to your first bet on the game, but I checked the terms and conditions specifically for this before placing the second bet and it said nothing which is the annoying part. Since it said nothing about 'first bet only' I proceeded to place my second bet but was then later told via chat only the first one would count for the promo.

Ahh I'm with you now

 

[targett]

Anyone like the pies?
Port are yet to win a game against a top 8 side and were belted by essendon (an average side) on the road a few weeks ago.

If elliot gets up i'm going big on them

Reid,Varcoe and Goldsack are good chances Elliot 50/50.They flogged us last year at the G .

 

[Keystone agony]

I think ill be tipping the pies.

Their performance vs Melbourne looks fairly impressive now.

Whats the record coming off a bye this year though?

No wells and Elliott are huge. Reid doeant mean much right now others are doing the role better.

I read somewhere Port are yet to beat a top 10 side and then compounded with playing away against a side in decent form plus playing for a lot. If they Wells and Elliott id be super confident.

Grundy vs Ryder is intriguing the 2 best rucks in the game. I thi k Ryder could really trouble Grundy and are pies mids use to that?

 

[hedgedhog]

I think ill be tipping the pies.

Their performance vs Melbourne looks fairly impressive now.

Whats the record coming off a bye this year though?

No wells and Elliott are huge. Reid doeant mean much right now others are doing the role better.

I read somewhere Port are yet to beat a top 10 side and then compounded with playing away against a side in decent form plus playing for a lot. If they Wells and Elliott id be super confident.

Grundy vs Ryder is intriguing the 2 best rucks in the game. I thi k Ryder could really trouble Grundy and are pies mids use to that?

Tipping the Pies as well but I don't see much value in this line. Would've made sense if Wells + Elliot were in (I think Goldsack is still out as well).

 

[2nd_2_None]

Anyone wanting to middle there +43.5 Lions line, it's in to +34.5 Palmer/Mad Bookie

Topsport

Yeah it applies to every game, but only on your first bet on that game. What I did was bet on North yetserday, but then decided to increase how much I had on North and placed a second bet on them today. So I had 2 bets on North H2H for this upcoming round. I was then told only the first one I placed was eligible for the special.

Most of their promos only apply to your first bet on the game, but I checked the terms and conditions specifically for this before placing the second bet and it said nothing which is the annoying part. Since it said nothing about 'first bet only' I proceeded to place my second bet but was then later told via chat only the first one would count for the promo.

Noticed in their tv advert that it does state that the promo only applies to your first bet on each game only...although not clear on their website

 

[Keystone agony]

I think eagles are dead certs vs Melbourne.

Everytime melbourne are talked up as why not premiers ? They turn to water the next week

Expect eagles to jump them 1st qtr/1st half

 

[AFLFootyChick]

For anyone having a go at the Rising Star market...see attached graph

 

[Derzzy]

Hi guys,

In last week's forum (or week before, cant remember) someone mentioned that if you had backed the "true home team" every time when they were paying odds of approximately 1.8 or above you would be significantly up. I went and built a small model to do some analysis across the past 7 seasons, and found that claim is indeed correct.

And it got me thinking: these claims are quite easy to prove/disprove when looking at historical data in a simple model. But it requires some knowledge on what exact trend you are in fact looking for. For example: maybe someone has heard of a theory that if you always backed the home team with a positive line, you would be up across past AFL seasons. This is a simple theory, and is easy to prove/disprove. But coming up with that theory yourself (or knowing what to look for) can be quite a time consuming task of trial and error.

So my question is essentially this: has anyone heard of any trends/ betting theories/ or just has a general inkling or feeling about a certain trends in AFL betting overtime. If you do, I'd be great if you could post them in the forum, and I'll try and "fact check" them in my model.

And also before anyone points out the obvious, i know that past performance isn't necessarily a guarantee of future results

Cheers,

 

[benno_]

Love the Roos/Dogs game for the 24 lead promo. Seems like the perfect game for it with the stars aligning here for a very decent chance of a North 24 point lead then Dogs win. Underdog at nearly $3 odds who often start well but fade and have blown multiple big leads this year vs the favourite who should win but are the worst ranked 1st quarter team in the league who start terribly but can finish quite strong. Jumping on North with the promo and then betting on dogs elsewhere.

Also liking the Bombers to potentially lead by 24 early (then fade a bit later)

 

[mookieb]

Hi guys,

In last week's forum (or week before, cant remember) someone mentioned that if you had backed the "true home team" every time when they were paying odds of approximately 1.8 or above you would be significantly up. I went and built a small model to do some analysis across the past 7 seasons, and found that claim is indeed correct.

And it got me thinking: these claims are quite easy to prove/disprove when looking at historical data in a simple model. But it requires some knowledge on what exact trend you are in fact looking for. For example: maybe someone has heard of a theory that if you always backed the home team with a positive line, you would be up across past AFL seasons. This is a simple theory, and is easy to prove/disprove. But coming up with that theory yourself (or knowing what to look for) can be quite a time consuming task of trial and error.

So my question is essentially this: has anyone heard of any trends/ betting theories/ or just has a general inkling or feeling about a certain trends in AFL betting overtime. If you do, I'd be great if you could post them in the forum, and I'll try and "fact check" them in my model.

And also before anyone points out the obvious, i know that past performance isn't necessarily a guarantee of future results

Cheers,

Hi Derzy

Great idea.

Some other theories that have been thrown around are:

Teams not covering the spread after a trip to Perth (rationale - longest road trip leaves teams drained)

In regards to bye rounds I would be interested in:

1. How many team cover the spread the week before a bye and
2. Performance of teams after they come back from the bye

The rationale would for the byes would be teams having one eye on their upcoming holiday and for the 2nd instance I assume the teams would come back refreshed and ready to go.

Cheers.

 

[Spacedog]

Doggos $2 at ladbrokes
North $2.9 at sportsbet

Max on ladbrokes is 25 but ill take it and hope north get out to a lead early and then lose it. Worst case i break even

 

[Oraz]

8u Sydney @ 1.45
Cale hooker will be a late out with a fingur injury i heard.

 

[Spacedog]

8u Sydney @ 1.45
Cale hooker will be a late out with a fingur injury i heard.

That might actually help Essendon based on how he played against us

 

[targett]

Random Stats for the stats men

Top 6 Q1 winners this season
Bombers 10/12
Port 8/12
Swans 7/12
Eagles 7/12
Tigers 7/12
Giants 7/12

6 sides at 6/12

Also liking the Bombers to potentially lead by 24 early (then fade a bit later)

 

[Keystone agony]

8u Sydney @ 1.45
Cale hooker will be a late out with a fingur injury i heard.

Heard where? How accurate is the source and what is the sources history?

You are a crazy punter my friend