2017 Draft thread

[chopperduck]

We should end up with 2 top 10 picks. It would be good if Ballenden drops to be after those 2 picks so we can use later picks for him. Will net us 2 good mids which is what we need. We still need some top ball winning talent. I love matho but he is a budget pick. Hugh is more of an outside mid, so we need to find some really nice clearance and contested ball winning types. Some Brodie types would be good. I would infact use both picks on inside types.

 

[Dalions]

We should end up with 2 top 10 picks. It would be good if Ballenden drops to be after those 2 picks so we can use later picks for him. Will net us 2 good mids which is what we need. We still need some top ball winning talent. I love matho but he is a budget pick. Hugh is more of an outside mid, so we need to find some really nice clearance and contested ball winning types. Some Brodie types would be good. I would infact use both picks on inside types.

Further to that, we need the inside types but ones with speed to be able to burst through packs and open things up. Hard to find i know, but Dangerfield types.

 

[jackess]

Further to that, we need the inside types but ones with speed to be able to burst through packs and open things up. Hard to find i know, but Dangerfield types.

Hopefully Berry can. Mathieson hits the pack hard as well.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

We should end up with 2 top 10 picks. It would be good if Ballenden drops to be after those 2 picks so we can use later picks for him. Will net us 2 good mids which is what we need. We still need some top ball winning talent. I love matho but he is a budget pick. Hugh is more of an outside mid, so we need to find some really nice clearance and contested ball winning types. Some Brodie types would be good. I would infact use both picks on inside types.

Yep would have to be a pretty special outside type to consider, and outside of OBrien I don't see anyone else just yet. Only need to look at the Giants, Bulldogs and Demons midfield to understand what were potentially up against, they have some seriousily good contested/clearance types.

 

[briztoon]

 

[briztoon]

 

[lionshine]

I know some posters think that Port are going to be closish to the bottom but l just can't see it.
They have the easiest draw.
They get back 2 good players in Ryder and Monfries.
Pretty sure they have a pretty healthy list iirc. Although 1 of their playmakers hurt his hamstring but should be available for R1 or 2
Dixon is an unknown, he can win games off his own boot but he gets injured. If he stays injury free...
Wouldn't surprise me to see them around the 8-10 mark imo

I haven't analysed their draw over the course of the full season, however, they could easily be 0-4 after the first 4 rounds.

Round 1 Sydney Swans- Away
Round 2 Fremantle Dockers- Home
Round 3 Adelaide Crows- Home/Neutral
Round 4 GWS Giants- Away

I reckon the Swans, Crows and Giants will flog them and with Nat Fyfe back and a revamped best 22 I wouldn't be surprised if the Dockers beat them in Round 2.

 

[POBT]

We should end up with 2 top 10 picks. It would be good if Ballenden drops to be after those 2 picks so we can use later picks for him. Will net us 2 good mids which is what we need. We still need some top ball winning talent. I love matho but he is a budget pick. Hugh is more of an outside mid, so we need to find some really nice clearance and contested ball winning types. Some Brodie types would be good. I would infact use both picks on inside types.

Berry has to be put in that mix.

Having said that, I would want two midfielders regardless of how our midfield prospects fare this year and I'd want both capable of winning their own ball at the stoppage. Ideally, another taller mid and then perhaps a mid who can play as a small forward type.

 

[chopperduck]

Yup, even if Berry shows some good signs as an inside mid, i'd still want another 2 genuine stoppage type mids, hopefully top 10 picks. Worpel looks a likely type, seems ready made, goes after the man and ball and even looks to have a little bit of toe. Not super quick, but a good first few steps to get him out of congestion. That is the types we need. I think Ideally we want Hugh to be able to have his turn in there, but you want him being the guy that gets the hand ball out of the contest. He has good vision and picks the right option, quick hands will either get him out of trouble or he will hit a nice set up pass. Whilst he can win some of his own ball, he has more value on outside rather than being bottom on the pack.

Again, even with Berry coming off as a tall inside mid, another tallish type 186 or up would be nice.

 

[chopperduck]

I'm not confident on relying on Keays, Taylor, Bell, Jansen, Matho, Barrett, Cox and co to be leading our midfield in 5 years. At this stage i can not see any replacements for Rich, Zorko, Beams and Rocky in the guts. Still plenty of time, and i do think we started addressing this in the last draft, and will continue this draft and the next. Mids can come on quickly... but still. We need to be getting in first round quality players as well, not relying on 2nd and 3rd round talent.

 

[jackess]

I'm not confident on relying on Keays, Taylor, Bell, Jansen, Matho, Barrett, Cox and co to be leading our midfield in 5 years. At this stage i can not see any replacements for Rich, Zorko, Beams and Rocky in the guts. Still plenty of time, and i do think we started addressing this in the last draft, and will continue this draft and the next. Mids can come on quickly... but still. We need to be getting in first round quality players as well, not relying on 2nd and 3rd round talent.

McClugg?

 

[chopperduck]

McClugg?

I left him out of the list simply because he is the 1 and only 1 high draft pick mid we really have. And i do see him more outside class type mid, rather than stoppage gun. We need some heavy lifters. Matho is good in close and will be a steal for the pick we paid for him, but we need those top pick types. Just had a quick look, like the looks of Hunter Clark. Nice size, reads it well works his way through congestion well. Looks tidy with his skills as well. Seems to have a bit of run and speed for his size as well.

 

[lionshine]

A Rayner/Worpel combo would be handy. Worpel wins the contested footy on the inside but also uses it well on the outside. Rayner is that powerful, explosive inside/outside mid capable of winning the contested footy and bursting from the pack. Can also go forward and kick bags of goals. Will have to wait and see how these guys perform this year though. No doubt some names that aren't floating around currently will end up in top 5 discussions in as little as 3 months time.

 

[lionshine]

I think one thing we are crying out for is a marquee player. Dayne Beams is probably our closest thing to a marquee player and perhaps a youngster such as Hipwood, Schache or McCluggage will develop in to one but at this stage I feel like we are lacking one.

A marquee player is not only a superstar of the competition but also a big marketing tool and the face of the club. Jonathan Brown was the last true marquee type on our list.

If you look at every other club in the league the majority of teams either have a marquee player in their prime or a young marquee player.

Adelaide Crows- One of the few teams who don't really have an obvious marquee talent. Is it Tex or Sloane or Betts?

Carlton Blues- Patrick Cripps without a shadow of a doubt.

Collingwood Magpies- Pendlebury with Treloar waiting to take over.

Essendon Bombers- Dyson Heppell but Zach Merrett seems to be taking over.

Fremantle Dockers- Nat Fyfe.

Geelong Cats- Patrick Dangerfield.

Gold Coast Suns- Ablett but Tom Lynch is ready to take over.

GWS Giants- Take your pick. Probably Jeremy Cameron.

Hawthorn Hawks- Cyril Rioli.

Melbourne Demon- Jesse Hogan.

North Melbourne- Lacking one like us.

Port Adelaide- Chad Wingard.

Richmond Tigers- Dustin Martin.

St. Kilda Saints- Nick Riewoldt.

Sydney Swans- Buddy Franklin with Issac Heeney waiting in the wings.

West Coast Eagles- Nic Naitanui.

Western Bulldogs- Marcus Bontempelli.

At this stage I think NMFC and the Lions are the two teams lacking one the most with teams like the Pies, Bombers, Port and Crows also lacking a clear choice. I don't think the Saints have a clear option ready to replace Nick Riewoldt either.

At this stage the biggest stars of the league are guys like Fyfe, Dangerfield, Ablett, Franklin, Naitanui, Rioli with Bontempelli, Lynch, Cripps and Hogan the stars of the future. These guys aren't necessarily the best players in the league e.g. I'd rate Pendlebury a superior player to Rioli, however, they are arguably the most marketable/well known and they are all superstars in their own right.

I think it is extra important for a team like us based in Queensland to have a well known, marketable superstar. Drafting a youngster capable of bursting onto the scene like Bontempelli and Hogan did is striking gold as it generates buzz/hype/interest among both the hardcore and casual fans and can help turn a team around both on and off field. Put simply a marquee player is a player that brings the fans through the gates in droves even when the team isn't necessarily performing all that well simply because they are great to watch and are capable of winning a game off their own boot.

I would love nothing more than for us to draft a player this year who bursts onto the scene and becomes an instant star of the competition.

 

[BuntonRules]

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2017-01-19...demy-prospect-waits-to-see-if-hell-be-a-giant

AFL story from a few weeks back in relation to Brander.
Parents have 2 properties.

This is where the Giants zone is bullshit. Wentworth is 60 kms from South Australia, 4 hours from Adelaide - with a strong Aussie rules history. Unless things have changed in the last few years the nearest rugby league team is hours away. It is, and always has been, Aussie rules heartland. The GWS academy is supposed to develop footballers in western Sydney & the surrounding country area, not cherry pick established talent just because of a convenient postcode.

end of rant - sorry for the derailment

 

[a mayes ing]

I haven't analysed their draw over the course of the full season, however, they could easily be 0-4 after the first 4 rounds.

Round 1 Sydney Swans- Away
Round 2 Fremantle Dockers- Home
Round 3 Adelaide Crows- Home/Neutral
Round 4 GWS Giants- Away

I reckon the Swans, Crows and Giants will flog them and with Nat Fyfe back and a revamped best 22 I wouldn't be surprised if the Dockers beat them in Round 2.

It was on an AFL site, saying they had the easiest draw. Not sure how it is done but if they get some tough 1st games then there must be a stretch where it is a hell of a lot easier.

 

[briztoon]

Do we have any math people here?

Is there much in the way of advanced stats and analytics involved in AFL?

 

[John_Proctor]

We should end up with 2 top 10 picks. It would be good if Ballenden drops to be after those 2 picks so we can use later picks for him. Will net us 2 good mids which is what we need. We still need some top ball winning talent. I love matho but he is a budget pick. Hugh is more of an outside mid, so we need to find some really nice clearance and contested ball winning types. Some Brodie types would be good. I would infact use both picks on inside types.

I'd rather Ballenden was consensus #1 pick and the surest bet in draft history even if it mean using both our pick and Port's to match for him.

Would be great to watch him dominate this year and be certain we have him.

We have our first, port's first, our 2nd and Collingwoods 3rd round pick So say thats something like 5, 8, 23, 42.

Ballendan at 1 matched with 5/8 and receive pick 14 with spare points. at 14 and 23 you still get decent midfielders (noting there is still some chance we'd need to use maybe 23 but probably not 15 to match for Clayton)

 

[KissKiss]

It was on an AFL site, saying they had the easiest draw. Not sure how it is done but if they get some tough 1st games then there must be a stretch where it is a hell of a lot easier.

Yeah they calculate it depending on who they double up against, number of interstate trips, number of 6 day (or less breaks), etc. So yeah the start might be hard but it might get easier later. Also this is done off last years ladder. If you get teams rapidly improving (or falling off the cliff) then the difficulty of the draw can change from what was thought preseason

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I'd rather Ballenden was consensus #1 pick and the surest bet in draft history even if it mean using both our pick and Port's to match for him.

Would be great to watch him dominate this year and be certain we have him.

We have our first, port's first, our 2nd and Collingwoods 3rd round pick So say thats something like 5, 8, 23, 42.

Ballendan at 1 matched with 5/8 and receive pick 14 with spare points. at 14 and 23 you still get decent midfielders (noting there is still some chance we'd need to use maybe 23 but probably not 15 to match for Clayton)

Interesting situation with Ballenden this year, understand where you're coming from, the higher the price the better the prospect, but we do need to keep an eye on our long term list management.

If we commit to taking Ballenden and Schache signs on, it will mean we have three young promising KPFs. Having 3x200cm forwards hasn't really been seen before and traditionally 3 big forwards dont work. Moving Hipwood down back is an option but it still comes at the expense of top midfield talent, especially if it cost us both premium picks.

At this stage of the year, I personally see his selection as somewhat of a luxury. The best outcome is to grab on academy talent just prior to needing to match, GWS done this very well last year with Taranto, I'd personally be ecstatic if it unfolded like Chopper described.

 

[winged1]

We played brown, lynch and Bradshaw during our premiership years.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

There's a few examples, but as defensive pressure is becoming such an important part of game styles, teams seem to want more mobile setups. The two recent examples i can think of are Patton/Cameron/Lobb and Petrie/Brown/Waite.

Still see such a set as a luxury until we get a few good midfielders sorted

 

[jjami15]

There's a few examples, but as defensive pressure is becoming such an important part of game styles, teams seem to want more mobile setups. The two recent examples i can think of are Patton/Cameron/Lobb and Petrie/Brown/Waite.

Still see such a set as a luxury until we get a few good midfielders sorted

Good point, also take into account the different types needed. Using three talls would have to cover a forward/ruck, CHF and FF. How that functions, as you stated, would need to be looked at really when you have a midfield that is able to deliver the ball into the forward fifty effectively.

 

[jackess]

Until Hipwood bulks up I'm not sure he'll be able to carry the workload of a key forward and if he does end up similar to Westhoff he'll be a third tall anyway.

 

[Fatcat08]

Interesting situation with Ballenden this year, understand where you're coming from, the higher the price the better the prospect, but we do need to keep an eye on our long term list management.

If we commit to taking Ballenden and Schache signs on, it will mean we have three young promising KPFs. Having 3x200cm forwards hasn't really been seen before and traditionally 3 big forwards dont work. Moving Hipwood down back is an option but it still comes at the expense of top midfield talent, especially if it cost us both premium picks.

At this stage of the year, I personally see his selection as somewhat of a luxury. The best outcome is to grab on academy talent just prior to needing to match, GWS done this very well last year with Taranto, I'd personally be ecstatic if it unfolded like Chopper described.

Its a fine line, however having a surplus of quality big men on your list isn't really a negative. Good big guys get chased by multiple teams, hence your ability to get something decent back for them in the event of a trade is very good. Still the chances of all of them being on the park for more than half of the games they'd be eligible to play together would be slim I reckon. Still I tend to think Ballenden slides down the list as the year progresses, for all of the reasons in reverse that caused Hipwood to rise closer to the end of the year. Even if we do take him I think he's a good 3-4 years away from really pressing to play AFL football, and that pushes him almost into another age category (experience wise) from Schache and Hipwood. Thats just from my viewing though and could very well be wrong.

The other thing that would make all 3 playing together possible is the fact that they're so different. Schache is your long leading half forward who will outwork his opponent and is a good shot from long distance. Ballenden will translate better into your more full forward big bodied closer to goal type who has the body to go into the ruck. But the one who makes the whole 3 work is Hipwood, athletically he's more like your mid 190cm type guy who floats around jumping all over the place with the pace and agility to require a mid size defender, but the height that requires one of your KPD's. If he keeps developing, and his body holds up he's going to be a nightmare to match up on. People talk about McStay in that third tall role, but Hipwood projects to give you that, the difference is he's 204cm!!!

Still all 3 are less than certain to make it so I think if you've got priority access to quality KPP talent from QLD, you grab it.