Prediction 2017 Ladder Prediction

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

I'd hate that. I want to avoid them at all costs. They won't lose another one IMO.

They spoil everything for us. Fletcher's 400th, Hird and Sheedy's last game (even though they were wooden spooners), and pretty much every other important game

It's like Dimma always gets them fired up to beat his old side.

 

[JayJ20]

It's like Dimma always gets them fired up to beat his old side.

It's been long before Dimma.

Since 2005, it's Richmond 16 wins Essendon 7, including 8 out of the last 10.

I'd much rather West Coast and Port in Victoria, or Melbourne

 

[Killer_Mike]

3 – Incredible efficiency
This refers to a situation where a lopsided team uses its dominance in at least one part of the ground to overwhelm the opponent. Instead of a perfect storm of opposing strengths and weaknesses, the underdog instead relies on their own strength in an area to snatch the win.

"Referring back to our strength ratings, Essendon’s poor control of the midfield appears to be the only thing holding them back from the upper reaches of the ladder, as they loom large within both 50 metre arcs (2nd and 3rd for forward and defensive efficiency, respectively). That lack of control means their efficiency usually only has limited impact – an efficient defence under seige still concedes scores, and an efficient forward setup can only do so much with little opportunity."

Essendon have won the inside-50 battle just twice this year – by one over West Coast in Round 9 and by 16 against Port Adelaide last week. In both games Essendon won by more than 10 goals. Essendon v Port was especially polarising, as a Port Adelaide accustomed to winning plenty more inside-50s found itself beaten in that area.

Logic indicated that if the Bombers could get close to breaking even, or better, in the inside-50 battle, then they would win the game. They did more than that. They were also more productive up forward than Port when they got the ball up there, leading to the slaughter. Port Adelaide’s denial of space and movement in transition was going to be crucial, and it completely evaporated.

Whenever a team has a single overarching strength – think Adelaide’s forwardline, Richmond’s defence, Collingwood’s midfield – there would seem to be the potential for these sorts of results of something else gives them a chance to really press that advantage.

https://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/

 

[blitzer]

3 – Incredible efficiency
This refers to a situation where a lopsided team uses its dominance in at least one part of the ground to overwhelm the opponent. Instead of a perfect storm of opposing strengths and weaknesses, the underdog instead relies on their own strength in an area to snatch the win.

"Referring back to our strength ratings, Essendon’s poor control of the midfield appears to be the only thing holding them back from the upper reaches of the ladder, as they loom large within both 50 metre arcs (2nd and 3rd for forward and defensive efficiency, respectively). That lack of control means their efficiency usually only has limited impact – an efficient defence under seige still concedes scores, and an efficient forward setup can only do so much with little opportunity."

Essendon have won the inside-50 battle just twice this year – by one over West Coast in Round 9 and by 16 against Port Adelaide last week. In both games Essendon won by more than 10 goals. Essendon v Port was especially polarising, as a Port Adelaide accustomed to winning plenty more inside-50s found itself beaten in that area.

Logic indicated that if the Bombers could get close to breaking even, or better, in the inside-50 battle, then they would win the game. They did more than that. They were also more productive up forward than Port when they got the ball up there, leading to the slaughter. Port Adelaide’s denial of space and movement in transition was going to be crucial, and it completely evaporated.

Whenever a team has a single overarching strength – think Adelaide’s forwardline, Richmond’s defence, Collingwood’s midfield – there would seem to be the potential for these sorts of results of something else gives them a chance to really press that advantage.

https://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/

I hadn't checked in on these results in a few weeks and its really interesting to see the changes. Our midfield whilst still our area of weakness is trending upwards and it may just be that we have addressed some of the structural issues that were leading to the lopsided inside 50's count. I know Watson addressed it recently and put it down to the midfield not working together well enough.

On the other hand our forward line is only a hair away from being the most efficient. It was interesting to note that the 2 times we've won the inside 50's count we've dominated. I would also say our defense has done really well considering we don't really have a lot of stars down there except for Hurley and a very inexperienced McGrath. Plus our defense has been under immense pressure to defend high numbers of inside 50s and to rebound.

One thing that is clear about the above stats is they don't reflect the quality of the opposition. eg Port Adelaide are ranked second overall on the back of absolutely walloping lesser ranked opponents but have failed against top 8 opposition. That said I think it does a great job of highlighting areas of weakness. Bulldogs and Collingwood's scoring for their inside 50s. Richmond's as well however I'd put that down to slower ball movement and choking up the game (also why their defense is so highly rated).

 

[Killer_Mike]

I hadn't checked in on these results in a few weeks and its really interesting to see the changes. Our midfield whilst still our area of weakness is trending upwards and it may just be that we have addressed some of the structural issues that were leading to the lopsided inside 50's count. I know Watson addressed it recently and put it down to the midfield not working together well enough.

On the other hand our forward line is only a hair away from being the most efficient. It was interesting to note that the 2 times we've won the inside 50's count we've dominated. I would also say our defense has done really well considering we don't really have a lot of stars down there except for Hurley and a very inexperienced McGrath. Plus our defense has been under immense pressure to defend high numbers of inside 50s and to rebound.

One thing that is clear about the above stats is they don't reflect the quality of the opposition. eg Port Adelaide are ranked second overall on the back of absolutely walloping lesser ranked opponents but have failed against top 8 opposition. That said I think it does a great job of highlighting areas of weakness. Bulldogs and Collingwood's scoring for their inside 50s. Richmond's as well however I'd put that down to slower ball movement and choking up the game (also why their defense is so highly rated).

It's a clear indication that the club as a whole is moving in the right direction.

I think their is still room for improvement in our midfield this year but from next year with some more depth through the draft and potentially an addition through trading we could see a real sharp improvement.

The thing I take the most heart in is that our strengths(forwardline and backline)will only become even more efficient once our midfield deficiency is corrected.

 

[Lore]

Yeah flattered indeed seeing as they still haven't beaten anyone in the 8, the next month might sort them out a bit.

Yeah. It's a really strange year :|

-----

I've been playing around with it lately to try and make it a little clearer (numbers within the solid border are the round the game was played, colours reflect whether they won or lost):

• Adelaide won their first six games but have been inconsistent of late against both higher and lower ranking teams and have a tougher draw for the remainder of the season. They haven't beaten a top 8, or even a top 10 side since round 6. If this trend continues they'll tumble a little, go 50-50 for the rest of the season but still make finals by virtue of runs already on the board.
• Brisbane pretty much just lose to everyone, so they're sunk. Look to the future Brisbane-ites! Got some good kids there.
• Carlton have been really inconsistent all year, although they've won their last two including a win over GWS. They have a tougher draw for the run home, and I don't expect them to make finals but they must be doing something right.
• Collingwood have had a pretty even draw to this point, and lost more than they've won. They have a tougher draw coming home, playing 5 of the current top 8. Wouldn't expect them to make much of the season going forward.
• Essendon... well. We all know that story. We've had our run against the top 8 in the last few weeks and split them for wins and losses. There's promise, there's issues, and even with an easy draw we know we have a habit of dropping the ones we should win. Proof of the pudding will be in the eating, but having actually watched all of our games, and some of them twice, I'd say we're building and have put in a good showing against hard teams. But I am "bias".
• Fremantle have had a tougher draw, but it's pretty even for the rest of the season. Expect them to double their premiership points and finish somewhere in the middle. Probably miss the 8 on percentage.
• Geelong will have their story told in rounds 15, 18 and 23, in which they play GWS twice and Adelaide once. The rest of their games will probably be true to form... win a few, lose a few, make the eight but where they finish will depend on the three games I've already mentioned.
• Gold Coast are inconsistent, have played top teams and bottom teams but no-one currently between 8th and 13th. A middling side with a middling finish to the season, expect them to probably go 50-50, though that is based on less data and carries less certainty than my assessments of other teams.
• GWS have beaten pretty much everyone, and mostly pretty convincingly. They have a tough run home against teams battling to make the eight, though they've beaten most of them before and probably will again. Comfortably top 4.
• Hawthorne have played a pretty even spread of teams across the ladder, with mixed results across the board. The second half is likewise a pretty even spread, so if the trend continues they'll just double their mid-season PP by the end of the season. Recent form is very inconsistent, winning and losing to teams regardless of where they are on the ladder. There's nothing here to indicate much improvement as the season goes on.
• Melbourne were inconsistent early, but have only dropped one game since round 8 having played the lower two thirds of the ladder. They still have to face the top 3 sides, but probably win most games against teams below them on the ladder, and comfortably make the 8.
• North have an easier draw for the remainder of the season, but haven't won a game since round 10 (which have been games mostly against middle of the ladder sides). Whether they're good enough to beat 10th to 14th when they play them again will be telling, but I'd expect them to finish below 14th.
• Port Adelaide beat Sydney in round 1 and Fremantle in round 2, but they haven't beaten a team above 13th since, or above 9th ever. They're flattered by an easy draw, and have played Brisbane twice already. What they make of the rest of their season is entirely up to them, if they're good enough then their easy draw and early runs on the board will give them a top 4 finish. If not they may scrape into the 8 on percentage, or miss finals altogether.
• Richmond haven't beaten anyone about 9th since round 5, and have since dropped games against four of them. They play mostly lower ranking teams for the run home, but given the squeeze in the middle of the ladder they'll need to win basically all of those to make finals (assuming they lose to GWS, Port and Geelong).
• St Kilda had an even draw to date, and a tougher one on the run home. They've pretty much lost to everyone above them and beaten everyone below them, but with their draw and the mid-ladder squeeze you'd expect them to miss finals and their recent form doesn't really indicate otherwise.
• Sydney.... Sydney. Sydney. Sydney. Inconsistent but with good form of late, made the finals last year, and have a pretty even draw to the finish. If they go 50:50 they probably miss finals, but good form lately says they may do better than that.
• West Coast have had an even draw, inconsistent results and dodgy form of late. Easy-ish draw to get home though, and may scrape into the finals.
• Bulldogs are a bit like St Kilda, they've lost to those above them, won against those below them, but have a more even draw for the run home. If they go 50:50 they may scrape into finals.

Based on that, my prediction (ergh, I hate making predictions and this year is especially difficult!) would be:
1. GWS 17
2. Port 14
3. Richmond 14
4. (Essendon at best, 8-1 for the rest of the season) 14
4. Adelaide 13.5
5. Melbourne 13.5
6. Geelong 13
7. Western Bulldogs 11.5
8. Fremantle 11.5
9. Sydney 11
10. (Essendon pessimistic realism, 5 more wins) 11
11. West Coast 11
12. St Kilda 10
13. Gold Coast 9.5
14. Collingwood 9
15. Carlton 9
16. Hawthorn 9
17. North 8
18. Brisbane 5

Although I have more faith in my descriptions above than with my ladder prediction... massive log jam still and not much more than percentage splitting 7th and 11th.

 

[eDPS]

We should still make finals if we can win the games against teams below us. We can afford to lose to Dogs and Crows and maybe Saints but then our % would be the issue if we lost those 3 with the Eagles breathing down our necks. Beat Dogs and we should finish 6th if not its likely 8th.

Our first final could be
Richmond 5th vs 8th
Bulldogs 6th vs 7th

 

[Mercurial89]

We should still make finals if we can win the games against teams below us. We can afford to lose to Dogs and Crows and maybe Saints but then our % would be the issue if we lost those 3 with the Eagles breathing down our necks. Beat Dogs and we should finish 6th if not its likely 8th.

Our first final could be
Richmond 5th vs 8th
Bulldogs 6th vs 7th

The AFL would love it if this happened.

Not sure we can make it for mine, I think we will pretty much continue on as we have for the start of the year splitting the wins and losses.

 

[Killer_Mike]

Obviously a win is the most important result this week but I think we need to really put Brisbane away to start building momentum and boost our percentage.

If we are to make finals then we should be aiming to go in in form and now is the time to start that.

 

[Pweter]

Obviously a win is the most important result this week but I think we need to really put Brisbane away to start building momentum and boost our percentage.

If we are to make finals then we should be aiming to go in in form and now is the time to start that.

Not to mention that with the log jam for top 8 positions, percentage may mean the difference between making finals or not.

 

[Beerfish]

1. GWS
2. Adelaide
3. Sydney
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Fremantle
6. Geelong
7. Essendon
8. Melbourne
9. Richmond
10. St Kilda
    
11. West Coast
12. Hawthorn
13. Collingwood
    
14. Gold Coast
15. Port Adelaide
16. Carlton
17. Brisbane
18. North Melbourne

3/18. Not bad. Not bad at all.

 

[Howard Moon]

3/18. Not bad. Not bad at all.

should get a job at the HUN

 

[JayJ20]

1. Sydney
2. GWS
3. Western Bulldogs
4. West Coast
5. Adelaide
6. St Kilda
7. Melbourne
8. Essendon
9. Geelong
10. Richmond
11. Collingwood
12. Hawthorn
13. Fremantle
14. Gold Coast
15. North Melbourne
16. Port Adelaide
17. Brisbane
18. Carlton

Not bad. 5/8 finalists right.

Got North and Hawthorn right
GWS, Essendon, Fremantle and Brisbane 1 away.

Melbourne, Collingwood and Carlton 2 away.

 

[eDPS]

Cant believe I missed this, at this stage id have

1. Adelaide
2. GWS
3. Bulldogs
4. West Coast
5. Melbourne
6. Geelong
7. Essendon
8. Sydney

9. St Kilda
10. Port Adelaide
11. Hawthorn
12. Richmond
13. Brisbane
14. North Melbourne
15. Collingwood
16. Fremantle
17. Gold Coast
18. Carlton

This year looks just as unpredictable

Swap Richmond with Dogs and mine looked pretty good I reckon

 

[Milanista28]

Look at how bad Richmond were rated here, Wow footy changes fast.

 

[Vindicater]

Look at how bad Richmond were rated here, Wow footy changes fast.

Richmond were never really rated all last year because they never really thumped anyone.

They just quietly amassed alot of wins and then got really hot at the right time.

 

[Milanista28]

Richmond were never really rated all last year because they never really thumped anyone.

They just quietly amassed alot of wins and then got really hot at the right time.

Yep, They found a system that worked and they played to it perfectly.

 

[onthemove77]

I honestly believe Essendon FC will produce a very special side this year, we have star power all over the ground. The only one weakness is we are missing a star full back-key position player to help Hurley. I smell something special brewing . We are definitely a top 4 side.

 

[JayJ20]

I honestly believe Essendon FC will produce a very special side this year, we have star power all over the ground. The only one weakness is we are missing a star full back-key position player to help Hurley. I smell something special brewing . We are definitely a top 4 side.

Far from our biggest weakness. If that was our only weakness, we'd be a shoe in for the premiership.
Midfield is very inexperienced. Thin on quality contested ball winners and bigger bodies around stoppages.