Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[ParapMarkets]

Will Hayward!!!

SOS was loving this kid. We talk about our successes but why not discuss players we wanted?

 

[Benaly28]

Cam Guthrie is playing terrible footy this year not sure why exactly but he had a great year in 2016,could he be someone we could get cheap?

 

[katmanblue]

Lebois was taken as speculative pick, with a bit of X factor. Hasn't shown anything yet, but he is very young and I would be prepared to show some patience for a few more years. The others... No.

I'd give JGM another go round. Showed a little bit this year. Long term replacement for Jones maybe. Especially on a rookie contract.

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[katmanblue]

Agree. Filthy cheating, plain and simple. No thanks. Not sure how bombers fans show up tbh

Denial

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[Stiffler's Dad]

Interesting read, not sure a guy like Graham has value to another club, but it should never be discarded

Water boy?

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

Agree. Filthy cheating, plain and simple. No thanks. Not sure how bombers fans show up tbh

Pot Kettle Glass Houses Carlton

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I'd give JGM another go round. Showed a little bit this year. Long term replacement for Jones maybe. Especially on a rookie contract.

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We are stacked for KPD at the moment.

Marchbank, Plowman, Weitering and Macradie is plenty to work with and we have LJizz, Rowe and ASOS to hold down the gorillas for the next 2-3 seasons.

I'd be surprised if he was kept on the rookie list considering the need for a young developing ruck and an influx of midfielders. A mature aged mid like Panos would be good value IMO. Big body with some experience.

 

[katmanblue]

We are stacked for KPD at the moment.

Marchbank, Plowman, Weitering and Macradie is plenty to work with and we have LJizz, Rowe and ASOS to hold down the gorillas for the next 2-3 seasons.

I'd be surprised if he was kept on the rookie list considering the need for a young developing ruck and an influx of midfielders. A mature aged mid like Panos would be good value IMO. Big body with some experience.

Dont know Panos, more info please.

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[Blue Flame]

So, join me in fantasy land for a second.
Let's say Gibbs leaves, and Adelaide finish first or second, meaning they have pick 17ish - not enough for Gibbs.
We take it on the proviso they throw in Brad Crouch.
Casboult leaves.
We send Casboult pick, Gibbs pick, and our first to GWS, for Hopper and Kelly.
Add Balic for our fourth or Boek.
Carlton have a midfield.

 

[therubbernub]

A rebuild is 3-4 years minimum

Sorry I didnt know that was written . Is it in the book of AFL rules? Can you let us know which page?

 

[therubbernub]

He wasn't that speculative - from memory some had him as high up as a top 30 prospect.

Hasn't had a good year but he's had a fairly interrupted season thanks to injury.

I'll be surprised if they don't give him another year.

FMD we are tough on players arent we? A player gets an injury and half of us write him off as a bust. Probably the same posters who would have to take 6 months off from posting on BF if they got carpel tunnel syndrome

 

[therubbernub]

It could be relevant to what others are willing to pay. If there is a dilapidated house for 1 mill that hasnt been bought for 10 years and you paid it. Youd have overpayed. Regardless of the fact its one of a kind and no one else can buy it.

That being said. Kelly is far from dilapidated

He might be depilated though. Just saying

 

[therubbernub]

You're looking at it from the wrong angle.

Law of trigonometry?

 

[rp84]

Here's my early August guess at what will happen.

FA Out: Levi Casboult
Picks In: Priority pick (18), Levi Casboult compensation pick (20)

Draft picks: 1, 18*, 20*, 37 (3rd), 55 (4th), 73 (5th)

---

Bryce Gibbs

Jake Lever will end up at the Pies. Crows will get the Pies first and on trade it.

To Carlton: Pick 6* + Pick 17
To Adelaide: Bryce Gibbs + Carlton's 2018 2nd round pick

Values Gibbs as worth slightly more than pick 6. Similar in some ways to the Tuohy trade (trading in a first for our second next year)

---

Josh Kelly nominates Carlton

Carlton trade: Pick 6, Pick 20 (Casboult compensation)

GWS trade: Josh Kelly

Essentially Carlton turns Gibbs, Casboult's compo pick and our 2nd round selection next year into Josh Kelly and pick 17. I can live with that.

---

Harley Balic nominates Carlton

Carlton trade: Blaine Boekhorst + pick 37 + pick 55

Fremantle trade: Harley Balic + pick 41*

Seems like the type of bust for bust trade that is made every year. We wont be using pick 55 so trade looks good for both.

---

Retirements: Dennis Armfield, Sam Rowe, Simon White

Delistings: Dylan Buckley, Daniel Gorringe, Nick Graham, Rhys Palmer

Rookie delistings: Andrew Gallucci, Matthew Korcheck

Designated free agents in: Harrison Wigg, Brandon Jack, Jack Redpath

The truth is you'd probably like one or two more delistings. However, this way I see us drafting to pick 41 in what is considered a shallow draft. Three of those picks are in the top 18. The last is pick 41. This is a good draft. Adding three designated free agents seems to be about right. Don't want to draft after 41 and adding any more DFA seems like a wash.

---

2017 AFL Draft

Pick 1 -- Cameron Rayner
Pick 17 -- Darcy Fogarty (poor carnival saw most drop him to just outside the top ten and the injury will drop his value a bit more. Could become the steal of the draft)
Pick 18 -- James Worpel
Pick 41 -- Jordan Houlahan

Other than Rayner, Fogarty and Worpel I don't know that much about the draft this year. However, Houlahan's game against the Allies impressed me. It's something we could use. Good straight kick for goal.

Feel free to substitute my selections with your favorites.

---

Final 2017-18 List Changes

OUT: Dennis Armfield, Blaine Boekhorst, Dylan Buckley, Levi Casboult, Bryce Gibbs, Nick Graham, Rhys Palmer, Sam Rowe, Simon White
IN: Harley Balic, Brandon Jack, Josh Kelly, Jack Redpath, Harrison Wigg + draft picks (1/17/18/41) - Rayner, Fogarty, Worpel, Houlahan

Summary:

Two of our 2017 best 22 depart in Gibbs and Casboult. You would expect at least 4 of those guys to be locks in our best 22 by the end of next season (Kelly, Rayner, Fogarty, Worpel) with Balic, Jack and Wigg to be thereabouts at worst. Redpath is a placeholder who will give support when the trio of Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni and Harry McKay need a rest. Who knows what will come of pick 41. SOS probably has someone else in mind for that spot. Then we have the rookie draft on top of that.

Ultimately, that's a fairly solid mix of trades without affecting SOS's ability to do what he does best and go to the draft.

Like it Wiz

 

[rp84]

Still not sure we get rid of Nicky G at this stage. We clearly lack midfielders, and even with bringing in Kelly (and especially if we lose Gibbs), I would have thought that we hang on to Graham for purely pragmatic reasons. I don't think we can afford to lose more midfielders than we gain this year without it making us a couple of injuries away from falling in the same hole as this year, regardless of development time for SPS, Cuningham, Polson etc. They will still be second and third year players.

Graham has definitely done enough to stay for another year. No issue with him continuing to get 1 yr contracts as depth for our senior team. Could make a career out of it.

 

[rp84]

Cam Guthrie is playing terrible footy this year not sure why exactly but he had a great year in 2016,could he be someone we could get cheap?

Their midfield has less depth than ours, propped up by danger and to a lesser extent Elwood. No way they let guthrie go.

 

[rp84]

We are stacked for KPD at the moment.

Marchbank, Plowman, Weitering and Macradie is plenty to work with and we have LJizz, Rowe and ASOS to hold down the gorillas for the next 2-3 seasons.

I'd be surprised if he was kept on the rookie list considering the need for a young developing ruck and an influx of midfielders. A mature aged mid like Panos would be good value IMO. Big body with some experience.

No chance we keep JGM. No need.

We desperately need a rookie ruck developing (should have been olango).

IMO, we should always have 1-2 small fwd prospects on the rookie list (we did, one is a bust and the other gets one more year), And a ruck developing. That is until we finally hit on them and get that great small fwd again.

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

Sorry I didnt know that was written . Is it in the book of AFL rules? Can you let us know which page?

Yeah look at Sydney and their rebuild since the flag they won over a decade ago
Rebuilding means years and years dwelling at the bottom

 

[LanceRomance]

Yeah look at Sydney and their rebuild since the flag they won over a decade ago
Rebuilding means years and years dwelling at the bottom

They have had a bit of help.... Cola and now their academy

 

[Arr0w]

Sorry I didnt know that was written . Is it in the book of AFL rules? Can you let us know which page?

Given what the state of our list was like, it is difficult to rebuild a list to compete to be a finals contender in under 3 or 4 years. Once you do that though and have a main core of talented players, there is no reason to bottom out completely again

Glad we have finally embraced a proper rebuild

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Cam Guthrie is playing terrible footy this year not sure why exactly but he had a great year in 2016,could he be someone we could get cheap?

Nope, but I'd have a giant nibble at Parfitt

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Graham has definitely done enough to stay for another year. No issue with him continuing to get 1 yr contracts as depth for our senior team. Could make a career out of it.

The new "Rhino"

 

[No1Suspect]

Watched a few u18 champ highlight vids this morning, must say if Rayner goes then LDU is the guy we want. Great hands and awareness will fill out like Luke Parker i believe.

So keep this years picks, send Gibbs to adelaide with our 3rd for the Lever pick.

'IF' Josh Kelly nominates us then its 2018 1st and Casboult compo. (Ive almost accepted the Cas will leave much to my disgust)

4th Rnd to Freo for Balic

With the Lever pick draft either (in preference) Coffield, LOB or Higgins

2018 Midfield (Murphy Cripps Kelly E Curnow SPS Balic LDU *Coffield LOB Higgins* Kerridge

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Given what the state of our list was like, it is difficult to rebuild a list to compete to be a finals contender in under 3 or 4 years. Once you do that though and have a main core of talented players, there is no reason to bottom out completely again

Glad we have finally embraced a proper rebuild

This is pretty much how I feel. We went down a route that will take longer but will allow us long term success if done properly. I see it as a 4-5 year rebuild (it would be 5-6 before free agency)
So far in the first two years of this rebuild I think we should have already built the core of a very strong side (once you add Doc and Cripps) with the amount of picks we have used and the amount of good players we have traded out.

 

[RudyBlue]

They have had a bit of help.... Cola and now their academy

Nailing about 20 million rookie picks does a bit too