Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Blue_Fusion]

If Kelly decides to stay the Giants will be thrilled and will waste no time moving on whoever they see fit to meet their salary cap requirements .
If Kelly decides to leave , the price will be the same to which ever club he nominates eg 2 1st rounders with the only possible exception i see being the club that holds pick 1.
The latest mail we have here re Gibbs is that he is likely to now stay .
Things do of course change but ms3 is respected here and Gibbs himself backed it up last night .

Barass is quite respected too and he said Gibbs would request a trade again "without a doubt".

I believe that if Adelaide just miss out on winning the flag then they will go after him hard. Serious questions will be asked as to why they didn't do the 2 first rounders for him last year and the pressure they will be under will be enormous. They will surely see Gibbs as the final piece to the puzzle and their window will shut after next year.

So if they come knocking on Gibbs' door again with a significant offer along with the chance of premiership success, he will request a trade again.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

In the last few years GWS have had to reduce their list numbers back the standard number that all other clubs operate under .
Hence the chance for us to take a salary dump in order to obtain a discount on our target .
Those days are now over and in any case its highly likely Griffen has no desire at all to return to Melbourne .
The mail from respected poster on this board suggests Gibbs is now likely to stay , pretty much backed up by Gibbs himself in his after match interview .
If GWS wanted and received 2 1st rounders for Treloar , that's at least what they'll require for Kelly who is on another level .

LOL he's not going to say "Yeah I'm planning on leaving" in his post match interview come on mate hahahaha

 

[Red Bull]

Barass is quite respected too and he said Gibbs would request a trade again "without a doubt".

I believe that if Adelaide just miss out on winning the flag then they will go after him hard. Serious questions will be asked as to why they didn't do the 2 first rounders for him last year and the pressure they will be under will be enormous. They will surely see Gibbs as the final piece to the puzzle and their window will shut after next year.

So if they come knocking on Gibbs' door again with a significant offer along with the chance of premiership success, he will request a trade again.

Barass is a ripper but his mail re Gibbs is not as recent as that of ms3 and things may have changed .
I understand lying is prevalent in the AFL but Gibbs was pretty convincing last night .
Time will tell i guess ...

 

[The Bighouse]

Barass is a ripper but his mail re Gibbs is not as recent as that of ms3 and things may have changed .
I understand lying is prevalent in the AFL but Gibbs was pretty convincing last night .
Time will tell i guess ...

Why not just put Gibbsy on Discussions with Dylan.

 

[davis_756]

What about pick 3/4 + Cuningham, would that be enough to get Kelly from GWS?

 

[Arr0w]

How about we not trade any of our best 22, especially the kids. Think that might just be a way of building a premiership group.

 

[Arr0w]

How many times has it been stated that Collingwood traded two firsts (pick 8 and a future pick) and got pick 28 back, and how many times has it been stated that there is no way Collingwood expected to slide down the ladder when they made that trade.

It was also seen as overs at the time. Terrible, stupid example; please stop.

It was still 2 first rounders, with a 2nd coming back. Pies of course wanted that future pick to be as late as possible, maybe 12-14, but it was still a 1st rounder. There is no doubt that Kelly now seems to be a much better player than Treloar

 

[Mondyboy]

How many times has it been stated that Collingwood traded two firsts (pick 8 and a future pick) and got pick 28 back, and how many times has it been stated that there is no way Collingwood expected to slide down the ladder when they made that trade.

It was also seen as overs at the time. Terrible, stupid example; please stop.

So you don't think that Kelly is worth 2 first round draft picks (a future pick or otherwise for the second)?

Or is the argument that we give up 3/4 and a player?

I just don't see how the Kelly deal works without 2 first round draft picks.

I personally don't think he will end up at Carlton. I'm not even convinced he leave GWS. Cameron thinks he'll stay. But SOS is a magician so who knows.

 

[Jimmae]

Not entirely, Richmond were chasing hard, their push may have factored in a similar offer hence the level Collingwood needed to get close to a suitable trade. And precedence would be an angle used in any AFL mediation, I'm sure.

Same may apply with suitors for JK and trade scenarios bandied about, get close to it to make it happen. Same with JOM last year, Hawks went out of their way to accomodate the level required to get it across the line (benefiting CFC, STK, GCFC in the procession).

Just because someone outbids you, doesn't mean you should outbid them. It was a dumb trade.

It was still 2 first rounders, with a 2nd coming back. Pies of course wanted that future pick to be as late as possible, maybe 12-14, but it was still a 1st rounder. There is no doubt that Kelly now seems to be a much better player than Treloar

So you don't think that Kelly is worth 2 first round draft picks (a future pick or otherwise for the second)?

Or is the argument that we give up 3/4 and a player?

I just don't see how the Kelly deal works without 2 first round draft picks.

I personally don't think he will end up at Carlton. I'm not even convinced he leave GWS. Cameron thinks he'll stay. But SOS is a magician so who knows.

Let's look at this via the DVI for a valuation:

Pick 8 in 2015, Pick 7 in 2016 for Treloar and pick 28

With standard values, that equates Treloar (out of contract) to pick 2 in 2015, but the values can't be standard across the board given the future pick. The 2016 draft was known to be be weaker in the top 10, and you need to factor in the delay before the pick can be used (GWS didn't mind, but let's assume valuation from Collingwood's perspective).

Let's slide the future pick down to being equivalent to pick 10; given McKay, Milera and Ah Chee were around this mark in 2015, and pick 7 in 2016 secured Scrimshaw, this seems about right.

Using that new, 2015-relative evaluation for the 2016 pick, Treloar becomes slightly more than pick 3.

Again, we can try adjusting for Collingwood's projection of comfortably making the 8, so let's put them at 6th, giving them pick 13 in 2016, which we can safely adjust to pick 17 in 2015.

That values Treloar at pick 5, but importantly only depriving the Pies of one selection at the draft. I don't think Treloar was worth that much even, but Kelly is worth more than pick 5, even uncontracted. However, the expectation that GWS should get like-for-like when the player is uncontracted and going to cause serious cap issues is stupid, and largely unprecedented.

In fact, the only clubs to pay that kind of price since free agency are Richmond (Prestia, after making silly bids for Treloar), the Dogs (Boyd, again in desperation), and the Pies.

 

[Arr0w]

With standard values, that equates Treloar (out of contract) to pick 2 in 2015, but the values can't be standard across the board given the future pick. The 2016 draft was known to be be weaker in the top 10, and you need to factor in the delay before the pick can be used (GWS didn't mind, but let's assume valuation from Collingwood's perspective).

Let's slide the future pick down to being equivalent to pick 10; given McKay, Milera and Ah Chee were around this mark in 2015, and pick 7 in 2016 secured Scrimshaw, this seems about right.

Using that new, 2015-relative evaluation for the 2016 pick, Treloar becomes slightly more than pick 3.

Again, we can try adjusting for Collingwood's projection of comfortably making the 8, so let's put them at 6th, giving them pick 13 in 2016, which we can safely adjust to pick 17 in 2015.

That values Treloar at pick 5, but importantly only depriving the Pies of one selection at the draft. I don't think Treloar was worth that much even, but Kelly is worth more than pick 5, even uncontracted. However, the expectation that GWS should get like-for-like when the player is uncontracted and going to cause serious cap issues is stupid, and largely unprecedented.

In fact, the only clubs to pay that kind of price since free agency are Richmond (Prestia, after making silly bids for Treloar), the Dogs (Boyd, again in desperation), and the Pies.

That can be spun countless ways, fact is Pies gave up a future 1st rounder, which was never gong to be pick 15+ (no matter how good a season they thought they were going to have)

If we end up sending pick 4 to GWS, another late 1st rounder will go with it or if SOS trades for later picks, it will still be 2 mid ish 1st rounders, with something coming back

 

[Mondyboy]

Just because someone outbids you, doesn't mean you should outbid them. It was a dumb trade.



Let's look at this via the DVI for a valuation:

Pick 8 in 2015, Pick 7 in 2016 for Treloar and pick 28

With standard values, that equates Treloar (out of contract) to pick 2 in 2015, but the values can't be standard across the board given the future pick. The 2016 draft was known to be be weaker in the top 10, and you need to factor in the delay before the pick can be used (GWS didn't mind, but let's assume valuation from Collingwood's perspective).

Let's slide the future pick down to being equivalent to pick 10; given McKay, Milera and Ah Chee were around this mark in 2015, and pick 7 in 2016 secured Scrimshaw, this seems about right.

Using that new, 2015-relative evaluation for the 2016 pick, Treloar becomes slightly more than pick 3.

Again, we can try adjusting for Collingwood's projection of comfortably making the 8, so let's put them at 6th, giving them pick 13 in 2016, which we can safely adjust to pick 17 in 2015.

That values Treloar at pick 5, but importantly only depriving the Pies of one selection at the draft. I don't think Treloar was worth that much even, but Kelly is worth more than pick 5, even uncontracted. However, the expectation that GWS should get like-for-like when the player is uncontracted and going to cause serious cap issues is stupid, and largely unprecedented.

In fact, the only clubs to pay that kind of price since free agency are Richmond (Prestia, after making silly bids for Treloar), the Dogs (Boyd, again in desperation), and the Pies.

So if I'm reading you correctly the best we should offer is a pick 3/4 for Kelly. To provide a second first round draft pick - let's say pick 10 if Gibbs left for Adelaide - would value Kelly higher than the DVI for pick 1 and in your view that would be a terrible deal. Is that accurate?


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[katmanblue]

Why not just put Gibbsy on Discussions with Dylan.

"Bryce, Trent from Punchy (God's Country), wants to know if I am getting delisted this year."

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[Jimmae]

That can be spun countless ways, fact is Pies gave up a future 1st rounder, which was never gong to be pick 15+ (no matter how good a season they thought they were going to have)

If we end up sending pick 4 to GWS, another late 1st rounder will go with it or if SOS trades for later picks, it will still be 2 mid ish 1st rounders, with something coming back

4 and 18 is equivalent to pick 1, though that doesn't really count for much in this draft at this stage unless GWS desperately wants a specific player.

That's a position I would use to drive more out of the deal, such as Hopper and Wilson.

 

[Arr0w]

4 and 18 is equivalent to pick 1, though that doesn't really count for much in this draft at this stage unless GWS desperately wants a specific player.

That's a position I would use to drive more out of the deal, such as Hopper and Wilson.

Absolutely, all part of the negotiation. As for Wilson, being a WA boy, he may want to return home instead of coming to Melbourne

 

[Bostonian]

I wouldn't be surprised if they asked for Weitering as part of a deal for Kelly if he requested a trade to us.

 

[Mr_Plow]

I wouldn't be surprised if they asked for Weitering as part of a deal for Kelly if he requested a trade to us.

At which point we will gladly tell them to get...

 

[Bostonian]

At which point we will gladly tell them to get...

Most likely. But if the roles were reversed we'd be asking the world too.

 

[Jimmae]

I wouldn't be surprised if they asked for Weitering as part of a deal for Kelly if he requested a trade to us.

I wouldn't be surprised if SOS immediately left the meeting laughing loudly all the way down the hall.

 

[Bostonian]

I wouldn't be surprised if SOS immediately left the meeting laughing loudly all the way down the hall.

I doubt he'd do that, it would actually be a fair request even if it was not something we'd never likely do.

 

[Zlatan]

I wouldn't be surprised if they asked for Weitering as part of a deal for Kelly if he requested a trade to us.

If Weitering says no, that's the end of that.

 

[Benaly28]

So who's on the de-list train this week?
Gorringe
Korchek
JGM
Sheehan
Jasck
Sumner
Armfield(ret)
Buckley
Palmer(not sure contract status)

Perhaps earned new contracts:
Thomas
Boekhurst
Lamb

Now Keep for depth:
Kerridge
Graham

 

[Blues90]

So who's on the de-list train this week?
Gorringe
Korchek
JGM
Sheehan
Jasck
Sumner
Armfield(ret)
Buckley
Palmer(not sure contract status)

Perhaps earned new contracts:
Thomas
Boekhurst
Lamb

Now Keep for depth:
Kerridge
Graham

Kerridge has been one of our best since his last call up boekhorst reaching his straps I think you all forget how young he is still in terms of how long his been playing for Lamb has earned another contract he just needed to get a string of games to get going

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[F_therest]

So who's on the de-list train this week?
Gorringe
Korchek
JGM
Sheehan
Jasck
Sumner
Armfield(ret)
Buckley
Palmer(not sure contract status)

Perhaps earned new contracts:
Thomas
Boekhurst
Lamb

Now Keep for depth:
Kerridge
Graham

Palmer has one more year to go.

Sumner should get one more season to prove himself as he does have a high ceiling.

Personally I don't think we should keep both white and Rowe...only 1. We have a lot of kpds on our list.

 

[DollarsandSense]

I wouldn't be surprised if they asked for Weitering as part of a deal for Kelly if he requested a trade to us.

Weitering will never leave. He is happy as a pig in Sh!t at Carlton.
Source. Family member.

 

[The Bighouse]

**will depend on how we fare on trades & draft picks we can utilise (more than happy with the later picks last year, would love to have the same options available that we think we could snare if the talent is (hidden) there).
+ whatever Casboult decides

So who's on the de-list train this week?

Gorringe > likely
Korcheck > doesn't matter too much if Cat B
JGM > been mentioned another 2yrs
Sheehan > sounds like another year
Jaksch > likely
Sumner > likely
Armfield(ret)
Buckley > likely
Palmer(not sure contract status) > 2018

Perhaps earned new contracts = think you're right for all 3 (BB a possible Balic chip)
Thomas
Boekhurst
Lamb

Now Keep for depth:
Kerridge > 2018
Graham > likely but one of the last

Galluci probably done & Le Bois another year.
Then there's both White & Rowe supposedly lining up for pre-season + no noise on Simmo to hang up the boots.

See what surprises are sprung and the shifting of performances throughout the year have changed up the preconceived plans.