Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[OldCarltonKnows]

We only have one first, one third and one 4th. That is three draft picks before we are into round 5 in what is described as a shallow draft. How do we find 10+ players this year?

This

 

[Arr0w]

Thought you said you were moving on from this debate? Comments since haven't advocated your argument...

Giving people the courtesy of a response, happy to move on and reignite the debate after this week's game

 

[BluesRule]

Keep calm and make sense. On Murphy, second at our club this year for contested possessions. Um, who is he competing with? What are you saying? Does he come second to Gibbs? Cause everyone else this year has not played enough or been injured for a fair comparison (Cripps/Curnow). Murphy's tackles are down against his competition peers; and clearances. As you say, he is better than some of our junior/VFL midfielders who don't even get the same midfield time...and wouldnt get a game at most other AFL clubs. So really, taking out our VFL rated players and the junior first year players, Murphy is last at our club for midfield contested possessions.

Boek was a mature age recruit. He is a vanilla footballer at VFL and weak at AFL level.

Yes, this year is his best year, I admit that. I am of the opinion it is his best year because it is his delisting year year and that he will revert to a softer type player on renewal. I'm ok with you feeling he has turned the corner and is now a bonafide AFL class player in the making. I'm just hoping SoS is of my persuasion. We will see.

You want evidence of contract years coinciding with form. Look at the year preceding Gibbs 5 year deal. That was his previous best year and surrounded by indifferent years. There are many examples of this. Even the logic makes sense.

On Murphy, I have a feeling 2018 will see him replaced as captain. That will say heaps. We have much better options now.

I'm not sure if you do what I do. I put Murphy/Boekhurst up against their peers from 'other teams' and try to analyse if they are better than half of them in more than half the games. If they are, i'm happy. If they arent, I hope Carlton can find better or change. The comparison is based on role, age, position, game time minutes, tackles, kicking, contested anything, hitting targets and decision making to mention a few.

I ignore AFL form spikes of said player was great for 2 games. Armfield is one of those type. Kills it 3 games a year. Is average 10 games a year and is poor the rest. A net loss vs his peers. Don't want him in the team or on our list.

AFL Player rankings on SEN say Murphy is still going OK....

MITCHELL, Tom Haw 164
2. CROUCH, Matt Adel 158
3. KELLY, Joshua GWS 156
4. MURPHY, Marc Carl 153
5. OLIVER, Clayton Melb 153
6. MARTIN, Dustin Rich 152
7. WINES, Ollie Port 150
8. DOCHERTY, Sam Carl 149
9. DANGERFIELD, Patrick Geel 148
10. GIBBS, Bryce Carl 147
11. SHIEL, Dylan GWS 146
12. FYFE, Nathan Frem 145
13. EBERT, Brad Port 145
14. LAIRD, Rory Adel 144
15. MACRAE, Jack WB 144
16. HEPPELL, Dyson Ess 143
17. HURLEY, Michael Ess 143
18. MERRETT, Zach Ess 143
19. DUNCAN, Mitch Geel 143
20. WARD, Callan GWS 143
21. BONTEMPELLI, Marcus WB 143
22. ROSS, Sebastian StK 142
23. PARKER, Luke Syd 141
24. ADAMS, Taylor Coll 140
25. GAFF, Andrew WCE 140

 

[BluesRule]

Firstly, I am confident that SOS will trade aggressively, as he has done in previous years. Secondly, let me put your mind at ease, this is not a thin draft, nor is it that shallow.

Hope you are right Arrow and we can find a few. But I am not convinced yet.

Maybe if we take salary cap dumps to fill the list after we trade in Kelly

 

[BlueRenaissance]

AFL Player rankings on SEN say Murphy is still going OK....

MITCHELL, Tom Haw 164
2. CROUCH, Matt Adel 158
3. KELLY, Joshua GWS 156
4. MURPHY, Marc Carl 153
5. OLIVER, Clayton Melb 153
6. MARTIN, Dustin Rich 152
7. WINES, Ollie Port 150
8. DOCHERTY, Sam Carl 149
9. DANGERFIELD, Patrick Geel 148
10. GIBBS, Bryce Carl 147
11. SHIEL, Dylan GWS 146
12. FYFE, Nathan Frem 145
13. EBERT, Brad Port 145
14. LAIRD, Rory Adel 144
15. MACRAE, Jack WB 144
16. HEPPELL, Dyson Ess 143
17. HURLEY, Michael Ess 143
18. MERRETT, Zach Ess 143
19. DUNCAN, Mitch Geel 143
20. WARD, Callan GWS 143
21. BONTEMPELLI, Marcus WB 143
22. ROSS, Sebastian StK 142
23. PARKER, Luke Syd 141
24. ADAMS, Taylor Coll 140
25. GAFF, Andrew WCE 140

Interesting isnt it. It's about what you consider important. Sloane isnt even on that list. And Gaff is. And Adams who butchers the ball repeatedly. We'd have to understand whats behind their analysis. No Pendlebury or Selwood either.

Going into next year, which neutral supporter would take Murphy over Pendles? That about kills that list for mine in terms of using it for anything useful.

Which person would take Murphy over Dangerfield based on that list ranking. Zero including all blues supporters.

 

[thylacine60]

numbers.......

 

[ray8182]

Spot on. Just too skinny for AFL.

Comparing him to Isaac Smith is pretty far from the mark unfortunately. Although Smith is also a skinny outside player, he has a strong wiry body and has power in his running.

Boekhorst is unable to break tackles. Every time someone gets a hand on him the tackle sticks. He relies 100% on his speed and evasiveness, but in today's game that's not enough.

It's generous to say you need a hand. I fingernail is all that's needed.

Actually just blow gently and he'll probably lose his balance.


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[BlueTongue]

Going by the "we can't delist 15 players in one epoch" principle, it wouldn't surprise me if old blokes like Alex S, Rowe and White were kept on as insurance but I wouldn't expect any to play more than a handful of games each - Liam has them covered. But as we've seen with Marchy, the 1st-4th year players break down.

(That said, where that leaves Jesse G-M...)

List turnover will focus on the coodabeens rather than the has-beens.

I think Rowe will play forward/ruck next year, and ASOS will be depth in the backline. Unsure if White will be there next year, but if he is he will struggle to break into the side at either end.

 

[BlueTongue]

How many did they blood? How many did we blood? What do you mean by "blooded"?

Zero (0) rising star nominations for the year doesn't bode well.

Dont ask me for the source but I read somewhere recently (journal - not forum post) that North Melb had played more 1st gamers this year than us.

 

[Jimmae]

2. Boekhorst won't be our Isaac Smith. I feel that will be Williamson.......if we need the comparisons.

Would have thought Williamson is more like Birchall myself.

Comparing him to Isaac Smith is pretty far from the mark unfortunately. Although Smith is also a skinny outside player, he has a strong wiry body and has power in his running.

 

[Cripps17]

Dont ask me for the source but I read somewhere recently (journal - not forum post) that North Melb had played more 1st gamers this year than us.

I saw that in the local paper - the reason for this was they had a lot of players from the '14 and '15 drafts that had yet to debut until this year.

We've debuted one additonal player than them from last year's draft, while also pumping an extra 40 games experience into them collectively.

 

[BlueJet]

In general, I agree with your post but will highlight two points, for discussion.

1. There should be a significant difference between the captain and a borderline player.
One's job is to lead by example and the others is to follow it, to some degrees at least.
Murphy just doesn't take players on his back and show them the way, on-field. It's just not him and it's not his fault he's captain, but then again......
Something just seemed to go askew through that whole period of us appointing our captain, after Judd relinquished it.
I have my own theories, but it just seemed that not everything went to plan.

2. Boekhorst won't be our Isaac Smith. I feel that will be Williamson.......if we need the comparisons.
Boekhorst hasn't done his 'potential' career any favours. He had the ability to push things further than for where they currently sit.

Wasn't it you that linked the two?
All the same, no not necessarily, there'd be players at the Pies who are more courageous than Pendles but nobody really knocks him because his overall output outweighs any negative impact this could cause.
As for choice in leaders, it's a different topic but it largely came down to an ageing Carrots or Marc, it's not as though we had great options at the time - thankfully Doc seems to tick all of the boxes going forward.

With regard to Boekhurst, you're right, comparisons aren't necessary but I thought I'd list someone with similar shortcomings who has gone on to have a very successful career. If the penny drops and he is able to build a tank to be able to run all day he can be an asset.

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[HARKER]

Wasn't it you that linked the two?
All the same, no not necessarily, there'd be players at the Pies who are more courageous than Pendles but nobody really knocks him because his overall output outweighs any negative impact this could cause.
As for choice in leaders, it's a different topic but it largely came down to an ageing Carrots or Marc, it's not as though we had great options at the time - thankfully Doc seems to tick all of the boxes going forward.

With regard to Boekhurst, you're right, comparisons aren't necessary but I thought I'd list someone with similar shortcomings who has gone on to have a very successful career. If the penny drops and he is able to build a tank to be able to run all day he can be an asset.

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Discussions on both players will only rock back & forth on this forum re. both players.

Noise is getting stronger for hand-over of captaincy and Boekhorst may have some claims for another year at Carlton.
One may come about, both may come about, or neither may come about.

Whichever way though, things will really get cranked up next week.
I don't think SOS is going to wait too long to take down the first cull and noise will get louder around several other matters/

 

[Soapy V]

Big difference having 10-12 in the gun and actually delisting 10-12.

That's why I listed more than 12 in the gun. I believe 10-12 delistings [emoji848]

 

[katmanblue]

Discussions on both players will only rock back & forth on this forum re. both players.

Noise is getting stronger for hand-over of captaincy and Boekhorst may have some claims for another year at Carlton.
One may come about, both may come about, or neither may come about.

Whichever way though, things will really get cranked up next week.
I don't think SOS is going to wait too long to take down the first cull and noise will get louder around several other matters/

So Beokhorst for captain in 2018?

 

[TD2010]

I can't believe people are contemplating giving Boekhorst another year, based on 3 run-of-the-mill games. I would rather free up a spot and select a kid that could grow into a better footballer, or take the likes of a 19 year old Bailey Banfield, who was strangely not selected last year and has been playing some very good football in WA

Boekhorst is not up to AFL standard, despite showing some glimpses. He is and will always be a nervous footballer, it's time to move forward

that panic kick in the first quarter, where Wright was ahead of him in space and instead dribbled it foeward. Wasn't a good look.

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[katmanblue]

that panic kick in the first quarter, where Wright was ahead of him in space and instead dribbled it foeward. Wasn't a good look.

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'Foeward' - towards an enemy?

 

[TD2010]

Ha, Boek has special foesight too

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[Red Bull]

that panic kick in the first quarter, where Wright was ahead of him in space and instead dribbled it foeward. Wasn't a good look.

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That type of thing is instinctive and seen all to often from Boekhorst , it doesn't cut the mustard in September .
Not everyone has to play like a Sellwood but in AFL football there are times when you just have to take physical contact and unfortunately Boekhorst shows no inclination to do this .
This will not be lost on Bolton/Silvagni as they strategically build a list with the big prize in mind .

 

[Cripps17]

that panic kick in the first quarter, where Wright was ahead of him in space and instead dribbled it foeward. Wasn't a good look.

Watch the replay, it wasn't a panicked kick - he was just trying to get it forward before he got tackled. It was just a miskick.

 

[HARKER]

Watch the replay, it wasn't a panicked kick - he was just trying to get it forward before he got tackled. It was just a miskick.

But the commentators said it was and that's all that matters.

 

[thylacine60]

I'll be the judge of what the commentators say, when they say it and what they mean.

 

[Soapy V]

That last pass he did to Gibbs was an absolute bullet.....sublime
However, pressure was off, game was over.
He absolutely shit himself earlier on in the game when he had a chance to get the ball fwd to someone in space (can't remember who it was) and completely shanked the kick.
That sums him up to me....no good in the heat of the battle.
Move him on.

Has improved but 2 major issues for me. Poise under real pressure and can he develop a tank? Still having less game time than others. If he was a kid then maybe but at 24 I would expect better. Prefer to play the kids who in most cases are a lot better

 

[Soapy V]

SO now we retain players because they are slightly better than the other bad bunch? How about we just add another to the delisted list, makes no difference if we cut 9 rather than 8.

Let's set our sites a little higher

and that's the issue. Lets get past this attitude of he is okay or has slightly improved or he is better than this player. Gets us nowhere. How about we try and build a list that will win flags? A player is either good enough or not based on their ability and performance. Fortunately I believe SOS knows this and will have no issue cutting players that are just "okay"

 

[Soapy V]

Have you seen our list? We've still got the worst list in the competition. He'll get a contract because he's not completely useless. If you are "not completely useless" you earn a contract at Carlton these days.

I think that's changing Gandaal. If SOS could replace 20 in a year he would. I have no doubt he will do some trades and then do deals to get as many picks as possible. Then some current players will be offered basic one year deals because we have no choice. 66 game rebuild isn't over yet