Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[HARKER]

I've been pondering this over the last day or two and i'm surprised nobody has started a thread on it on the main board(i may have missed it) but Bucks said he didn't think any club would match a RFA bid in the near future. I found this astounding.. In what world would Richmond not match a Dusty bid, Freo a Fyfe bid, GC a Lynch bid.. is it easier than we think to draw a free agent out with a decent contract or is Bucks just a moron?

Buckley says a lot of things and when he says them in a deep, dulcet tone, he sounds as though he knows what he's talking about.

Some suggest that if it gets to that level, the player wants out. Why would it mean that?
What better way has Martin to stay at Richmond and get maximum value? Buckley may need a bigger towel to wipe more egg off face.

 

[StandByyourMan]

Jesus Gandaal you dont ask for much but yes ........ that would be one HUGE midfield.

Gibbs, Cripps, Fyfe, Murphy, Hopper, Martin, Shiel, Kelly, Curnow, and Greg Williams - now there's a midfield..... Gee that is fun.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I've been pondering this over the last day or two and i'm surprised nobody has started a thread on it on the main board(i may have missed it) but Bucks said he didn't think any club would match a RFA bid in the near future. I found this astounding.. In what world would Richmond not match a Dusty bid, Freo a Fyfe bid, GC a Lynch bid.. is it easier than we think to draw a free agent out with a decent contract or is Bucks just a moron?

Hearing it made me think Reid will be at Collingwood next season. I think it was him who also said they will change the rules before they let someone match a bid.... Adelaide did make Geelong trade for Danger

 

[BluesRule]

Rumour on SEN that Charlie Cameron is seeking to move to Brisbane.
Wonder if that helps the Gibbs trade, as Adelaide will need Gibbs even more, can get something from Brisbane and can trade us two late first round picks and still stay in the draft to save face with their supporters.

 

[ferrisb]

Gibbs, Cripps, Fyfe, Murphy, Hopper, Martin, Shiel, Kelly, Curnow, and Greg Williams - now there's a midfield..... Gee that is fun.

FYI, you listed Crippa twice

 

[JustaBattler]

FYI, you listed Crippa twice

toofunny

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

I'm not sure that Sumner and Boekhorst are behind Graham. Not saying they're not, but I do believe that they have a higher, and more AFL friendly, ceiling... if it all comes together for them.

Other than that, I think you're probably right... still won't save Graham though.

No way is Graham ahead of too many on the list
Imo an absolute Monty to be gone!

 

[goreds]

goreds suggested there was one.

I was thinking along the lines of an advantageous swap of picks

Didn't say the Hawks had an IOU in place but I won't deny that they may either...

 

[goreds]

Love your work. Please excuse my curiosity but do you have a link for that?

It was suggested on the pre match on Sunday afternoon on SEN I believe...

 

[HBF]

Rumour on SEN that Charlie Cameron is seeking to move to Brisbane.
Wonder if that helps the Gibbs trade, as Adelaide will need Gibbs even more, can get something from Brisbane and can trade us two late first round picks and still stay in the draft to save face with their supporters.

Was that from a caller, or someone who works at the station?

 

[F_therest]

I don't want him at the club, for a whole host of reasons

Firstly and most importantly, I hope you are not blaming that woman for his appalling actions? Let me also be clear, this is the main reason why I don't want him at the club.

I really don't care what he looks like, has nothing to do with my opinion of him.

Relatively good price? He will cost over 1.2 million a year, to prise him out of Richmond, let alone what the other offers would be. For a 27 year old next year and where we are in our rebuild, I still wouldn't want him.

As i said, whether or not he would be worth what we have to pay to get him is one thing.
But i don't care about that.

What i do find crazy is when people simply they don't want him at our club period and don't even want our club talking to him. And mostly due to perceived behavioral issues which really aren't a concern anymore. That's just silly.

 

[BluesRule]

Was that from a caller, or someone who works at the station?

I was in the car and only just caught it, but was not a caller. Suggested Brisbane were keen and cameron was keen.

 

[Stamos]

I've been pondering this over the last day or two and i'm surprised nobody has started a thread on it on the main board(i may have missed it) but Bucks said he didn't think any club would match a RFA bid in the near future. I found this astounding.. In what world would Richmond not match a Dusty bid, Freo a Fyfe bid, GC a Lynch bid.. is it easier than we think to draw a free agent out with a decent contract or is Bucks just a moron?

In general, you pay more (contract value) to poach a player, and the cost of gaining a player is a combination of contract cost and trade cost.
With a Restricted Free Agent having no trade cost, the contract cost is even higher. So while a club can justify paying overs in terms of money to poach a RFA, it is much harder to justify paying that amount of overs to keep a player, especially one who wants out.

The Geelong/Dangerfield situation is different, because they did not pay him overs in $$$ terms. Really, he is probably paid unders. So it was much easier for Adelaide to match. Geelong chose to use trade cost to offset contract cost. Nobody else has done this, and I think it will be very rare, if not unique into the future.

 

[Arr0w]

As i said, whether or not he would be worth what we have to pay to get him is one thing.
But i don't care about that.

What i do find crazy is when people simply they don't want him at our club period and don't even want our club talking to him. And mostly due to perceived behavioral issues which really aren't a concern anymore. That's just silly.

Perceived behavioural issues?

Okay let me put it this way. If that woman was your wife, mum, sister etc, would you want the guy, who stood over her, threatened to stab her with chop sticks, intimidated her by banging the brick-wall above her head, to be recruited to the club?

My answer would be no, no matter how good a player he was. What about you?

 

[Jimmae]

Talking about management:

How far away are we from signings; Byrne, Williamson. Macreadie and maybe in particular, Cuningham?

Williamson and Macreadie were well under way as of the last signings. I'm sure Cuningham's agent is vying for a bit more than perhaps he would have asked for at the start of the season.

I've been pondering this over the last day or two and i'm surprised nobody has started a thread on it on the main board(i may have missed it) but Bucks said he didn't think any club would match a RFA bid in the near future. I found this astounding.. In what world would Richmond not match a Dusty bid, Freo a Fyfe bid, GC a Lynch bid.. is it easier than we think to draw a free agent out with a decent contract or is Bucks just a moron?

I'm guessing Bucks thinks this year's salary average dictates the compensation, or he's just not thought this through.

 

[HBF]

I was in the car and only just caught it, but was not a caller. Suggested Brisbane were keen and cameron was keen.

Thanks BR.
It's one of life's little mysteries that from the outside the Crows look like a pretty well run club, but the amount of good players that have left/asked to be traded must be pretty high compared to other clubs.

 

[Ciccio]

I was in the car and only just caught it, but was not a caller. Suggested Brisbane were keen and cameron was keen.

It was stated by Brian Waldron on his segment with KB. Waldron talks about somebody he calls his "Northern Spy" and this is who he gets his rumours/info from (i.e. Barker to coach Suns next year).

If I remember correctly Waldron last year stated about 6 weeks before the end of season that he was hearing Gibbs to Adelaide could be happening. So has some form in getting info out of Adelaide right previously.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Hearing it made me think Reid will be at Collingwood next season. I think it was him who also said they will change the rules before they let someone match a bid.... Adelaide did make Geelong trade for Danger

Wasn't it more of a gentleman's agreement? We won't match if you give us decent compo type of thing. That way Geelong didn't have to pay Danger $1m+ and Crows got more than just a band 1 compo pick. Probably the closest thing to matching an offer without actually doing it.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Wasn't it more of a gentleman's agreement? We won't match if you give us decent compo type of thing. That way Geelong didn't have to pay Danger $1m+ and Crows got more than just a band 1 compo pick. Probably the closest thing to matching an offer without actually doing it.

Yeh I think that's exactly how it happened.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Rumour on SEN that Charlie Cameron is seeking to move to Brisbane.
Wonder if that helps the Gibbs trade, as Adelaide will need Gibbs even more, can get something from Brisbane and can trade us two late first round picks and still stay in the draft to save face with their supporters.

Brissy have a couple of firsts already (theirs + Port's) and thirds (theirs and Collingwood's), could certainly see a pick downgrade being done to get them Cameron.

Something like Cameron and 17 for 11, 37 and 43. Values Cameron at around 14 which feels a little steep, but actually works well for Brisbane. Brisbane unlikely to be using 11 on a genuine selection, as it'll probably go towards matching a bid for one of their academy talls (ie. Ballenden) which they can do as effectively (if not more so) with Pick 17 and some points from their second rounder. It's essentially Ballenden, Pick 19, 37 and 43 vs. Ballenden, Pick 24 and Cameron.

McGovern and 43 goes to WC for ~14.

Then they can send 11, 14 and Wigg to us for Gibbs and 38.

Brisbane - Lose Picks 11, 37 and 43, gain Pick 17 and Cameron (better net result with academy considerations, as above)
Adelaide - Lose Pick 17, Cameron and McGovern, gain Gibbs and Picks 37 and 38.
Carlton - Lose Gibbs and Pick 38, gain Picks 11, 14 and Wigg.

A little convoluted (OK, a lot convoluted), but it feels balanced.

 

[gandaal]

Why do we want Wigg? That's crazy.

 

[thylacine60]

would be sheer follycle.........

 

[gbatman]

The Gibbs thing is heating up you feel. At this moment Gibbs is one of the best midfielders in the competition. In many ways he's better than Dangerfield, Mitchell and Selwood (who the media can't get enough of) because not only does Gibbs rack the ball up but he also uses the ball exceptionally well which many of the game's best ball winners don't, plus he is a goal kicker in a bottom side. Adelaide need to realise that Gibbs might be worth a premiership to them, they have a hole in their midfield and they are very close. Had they got the deal done last trade period they would probably be a sure thing for the flag this season. They ballsed up, no doubt. Premierships are worth more than draft picks and salary and anything because that's what you play for, it's the ultimate goal. Gibbs is just about All Australian and is contracted. The Crows must pay massive overs and they should because what ever they pay, a flag is worth more.

If we can get a deal done that means it's Gibbs for Kelly then we probably should. Kelly is a great player but he's a good player in a star midfield. He may not be as good in our midfield (I may be wrong) but he improves our age profile that's for sure and he should have his best footy ahead of him.

I don't get the dislike for Martin. The guy clearly has a good work rate and presents himself in peak condition and plays the game the way it should be played. He's a super competitor. Sometimes this has spilled out in public but that happens sometimes. You don't win premierships with a bunch of level headed role model types, you never do. He's just about the most damaging player and most valuable player with his versatility there is in the game. Be silly not to have a look.

We're in a prime position for young top end talent. We aught to be looking.

 

[Kuttez87]

The Gibbs thing is heating up you feel. At this moment Gibbs is one of the best midfielders in the competition. In many ways he's better than Dangerfield, Mitchell and Selwood (who the media can't get enough of) because not only does Gibbs rack the ball up but he also uses the ball exceptionally well which many of the game's best ball winners don't, plus he is a goal kicker in a bottom side. Adelaide need to realise that Gibbs might be worth a premiership to them, they have a hole in their midfield and they are very close. Had they got the deal done last trade period they would probably be a sure thing for the flag this season. They ballsed up, no doubt. Premierships are worth more than draft picks and salary and anything because that's what you play for, it's the ultimate goal. Gibbs is just about All Australian and is contracted. The Crows must pay massive overs and they should because what ever they pay, a flag is worth more.

If we can get a deal done that means it's Gibbs for Kelly then we probably should. Kelly is a great player but he's a good player in a star midfield. He may not be as good in our midfield (I may be wrong) but he improves our age profile that's for sure and he should have his best footy ahead of him.

I don't get the dislike for Martin. The guy clearly has a good work rate and presents himself in peak condition and plays the game the way it should be played. He's a super competitor. Sometimes this has spilled out in public but that happens sometimes. You don't win premierships with a bunch of level headed role model types, you never do. He's just about the most damaging player and most valuable player with his versatility there is in the game. Be silly not to have a look.

We're in a prime position for young top end talent. We aught to be looking.

Think Kelly would be even better in our midfield. He is a genuine star. I want Gibbs to stay but if Gibbs really wants to go home and we somehow turn that into a Gibbs for Kelly deal I'm doing that every day of the week. Personally think Kelly will be the best player in the comp in the next 1-2 years.

 

[Gingerbread man]

Why not? I don't understand people's reservations about his as a person/player.

He is clearly one of the most professional, hard-working players in the competition.
People still have a stigma against him due to the way he looks, but all reports suggest he doesn't really act how you would expect based on his appearance.

The 'chopstick' incident was blown way out of proportion and pretty sure the woman in the incident was largely to blame for her behaviour, and the Daniel Connors thing was poor but only happened once and never again...and was a long time ago.

Arguing whether he's worth it based on how much he would cost the club in salary and trading assets is one thing, but simply saying 'i dont want him at the club' is just ridiculous. If you can get a Dustin Martin for a relatively good price, you do it.

Totally agree with this and I'm also certain that Bolton, SOS and co would not chase a free agent that would be a negative influence on the group.