Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[ShanDog]

I'd be thrilled should clubs buy into this so hard, they'd give up their first born just to have picks in this draft.
Who knows what we can claim by trading our first rounder. All good.

The super draft of super drafts was 2001 yet it had these names in the top 20; Polak, Clarke, Molan, Power, Cole, Watson, Brooke, Ladson, Harvey, Elstone.

Don't get sucked in by think there's only one way to skin a cat. We'll see what happens soon enough.

Yep - a "super draft" crop presents an opportunity to either trade in as many high picks as you can, or feed those picks to clubs who really need them by trading for established players. Definitely have a couple of strategic options.

If we don't think we'll have currency to trade players for decent picks in 2018, we may pull the trigger on our 2018 first rounder to grab Kelly now.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

McKay is 2 years away from being close to ready

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What's 'ready'? If you mean providing consistent, AFL output, I agree with you. However, I meant ready in terms of being able to start his development in the 1s, rather than the reserves. At some point he has to play and there will follow a couple of seasons of development. There is only so much you can learn in the reserves. If they think he's ready to play 1s consistently, then trading Levi might benefit us long term even if we go backwards for a little while.

Suppose it depends what is on offer. If is a pick in the 30s or lower, I don't see the point. Even if he loses his spot in the best 22, he'll be valuable depth.

 

[katmanblue]

What's 'ready'? If you mean providing consistent, AFL output, I agree with you. However, I meant ready in terms of being able to start his development in the 1s, rather than the reserves. At some point he has to play and there will follow a couple of seasons of development. There is only so much you can learn in the reserves. If they think he's ready to play 1s consistently, then trading Levi might benefit us long term even if we go backwards for a little while.

Suppose it depends what is on offer. If is a pick in the 30s or lower, I don't see the point. Even if he loses his spot in the best 22, he'll be valuable depth.

By ready, i meant able to replace levi.

I think he will comin in later this year to begin his development, which will make us top heavy but that cant be helped.

Hopefully, with Levi still taking no1 backman from opposition will allow Harry and to a lesser extent SOJ and Charlie to continue to develop.

Again, i agree he needs to play seniors, but he just looked so far off it in the vfl on the weekend.

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[HARKER]

Yep - a "super draft" crop presents an opportunity to either trade in as many high picks as you can, or feed those picks to clubs who really need them by trading for established players. Definitely have a couple of strategic options.

If we don't think we'll have currency to trade players for decent picks in 2018, we may pull the trigger on our 2018 first rounder to grab Kelly now.

Who knows what can be achieved, but to put a pick that could easily be a #10 under lock and key, would be silly.

If you can manufacture a trade to advantage, that ticks all the 'rebuild' boxes, then why not?

 

[katmanblue]

Who knows what can be achieved, but to put a pick that could easily be a #10 under lock and key, would be silly.

If you can manufacture a trade to advantage, that ticks all the 'rebuild' boxes, then why not?

Yeah, people need to stop thinking in absolutes. Whatever is most advantageous, as long as all options and ramifications are considered.

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[Canyouhearthedrums]

By ready, i meant able to replace levi.

I think he will comin in later this year to begin his development, which will make us top heavy but that cant be helped.

Hopefully, with Levi still taking no1 backman from opposition will allow Harry and to a lesser extent SOJ and Charlie to continue to develop.

Again, i agree he needs to play seniors, but he just looked so far off it in the vfl on the weekend.

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Definitely a fair bit of water to go under the bridge with him. It's why I cannot get my head around us genuinely challenging before 2020.

It's a bit difficult to see how he and Levi fit in the team together though. It means Weits goes back to play with Jones and Marchbank. I suppose that's not too tall.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Article in the Herald Sun today saying Levi is a wanted man and rival clubs are going to make him a nice offer to try and get him.

I hope so! That GC game was the one that sealed it for me. We cannot move forward with this guy so let's try and get rid of him when his value is at its highest.

Band 3 compo will be an early 20's pick which will be very handy at the trade table...

I think Levi is a big chance to attract a band 3 compo pick with the 20% increase. They reckon only approx. 50% of players are on contracts that are linked to pay increases. Richmond would have the money, especially in year one. Pay him some good dollars in year 1 which is then reduced for the following 2 years, wouldn't break the bank for them, they fill a need and still take 2 first round picks to the draft.

All reliant on Dusty staying though, who knows what crazy shit North will pull when the dream of getting Kelly is over, it's not like Dusty will have a career in the media after his retirement so he will need to squeeze every last dollar out of his footy career. They can't afford to go after fa's if Dusty leaves.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I think Levi is a big chance to attract a band 3 compo pick with the 20% increase. They reckon only approx. 50% of players are on contracts that are linked to pay increases. Richmond would have the money, especially in year one. Pay him some good dollars in year 1 which is then reduced for the following 2 years, wouldn't break the bank for them, they fill a need and still take 2 first round picks to the draft.

All reliant on Dusty staying though, who knows what crazy shit North will pull when the dream of getting Kelly is over, it's not like Dusty will have a career in the media after his retirement so he will need to squeeze every last dollar out of his footy career. They can't afford to go after fa's if Dusty leaves.

I reckon they can, to be honest.

It's net gain/loss that determines compensation. If you lose a player, but gain a player of very similar value, the compensation is removed. But if you lost a player like Dusty who secures a 5 year contract on $1mil per season, then recruit Casboult on $500k pa for 3 years, I'd be very surprised if the AFL didn't award Band 1 compensation anyway. Even more so because the Tigers' first isn't likely to fall until Pick 9-12.

 

[Robertio]

Bolton has been rumoured to have turned water into wine before, maybe he can turn Tippet into John Coleman

Nup Coleman had a bit of go in him..

 

[ParapMarkets]

I reckon they can, to be honest.

It's net gain/loss that determines compensation. If you lose a player, but gain a player of very similar value, the compensation is removed. But if you lost a player like Dusty who secures a 5 year contract on $1mil per season, then recruit Casboult on $500k pa for 3 years, I'd be very surprised if the AFL didn't award Band 1 compensation anyway. Even more so because the Tigers' first isn't likely to fall until Pick 9-12.

Fair enough, that makes sense as recruiting Levi would hardly soften the blow of losing Dusty. They are no chance going forward without Dusty, he is a top 5 player in the comp now

 

[Matty411]

I think Levi is a big chance to attract a band 3 compo pick with the 20% increase. They reckon only approx. 50% of players are on contracts that are linked to pay increases. Richmond would have the money, especially in year one. Pay him some good dollars in year 1 which is then reduced for the following 2 years, wouldn't break the bank for them, they fill a need and still take 2 first round picks to the draft.

All reliant on Dusty staying though, who knows what crazy shit North will pull when the dream of getting Kelly is over, it's not like Dusty will have a career in the media after his retirement so he will need to squeeze every last dollar out of his footy career. They can't afford to go after fa's if Dusty leaves.

My questions:

• Is Levi likely to still be best 22 in 2018? (Yes)
• Does he perform an important role in our side? (Yes)
• Will we have the cap space to put a fair and improved offer to Levi? (Yes)
• Does Levi love the club and is it conceivable he'd want to stay if a fair offer from us was on the table? (I think so, yes)

Hence I think we'll put an offer for 2-3 years on the table (perhaps performance based for Year 3 with scope for more $ if he hits certain targets).

The big ? here is whether he receivs batshit crazy offers from Richmond, Collingwood or the likes. If our offer is say $500k (conceivable) but they come in offering a 4 year deal straight up for $600k then he may just bite.

Either way, we should be happy. We either keep him to perform that role for a few more years while the kids develop and our cap isn't affected or he leaves for a bigger offer (would have to be quite a bit more for him to leave, I believe/hope) and we're rewarded with a Tier 3 draft pick (likely early 20's).

 

[Arr0w]

With all the rumours starting to circulate, with more to come. The link below may be of interest to some, contemplating the draft picks we may have, come the end of year

https://www.draftguru.com.au/

 

[AlecDuncan]

If Levi kicks more than four goals against Richmond, he's outta here.

 

[ParapMarkets]

My questions:

• Is Levi likely to still be best 22 in 2018? (Yes)
• Does he perform an important role in our side? (Yes)
• Will we have the cap space to put a fair and improved offer to Levi? (Yes)
• Does Levi love the club and is it conceivable he'd want to stay if a fair offer from us was on the table? (I think so, yes)

Hence I think we'll put an offer for 2-3 years on the table (perhaps performance based for Year 3 with scope for more $ if he hits certain targets).

The big ? here is whether he receivs batshit crazy offers from Richmond, Collingwood or the likes. If our offer is say $500k (conceivable) but they come in offering a 4 year deal straight up for $600k then he may just bite.

Either way, we should be happy. We either keep him to perform that role for a few more years while the kids develop and our cap isn't affected or he leaves for a bigger offer (would have to be quite a bit more for him to leave, I believe/hope) and we're rewarded with a Tier 3 draft pick (likely early 20's).

Everything I seem to read regarding Levi is that he is shopping himself around. I have no problem with this, he only has so many years to earn his income but I just don't see him as part of our long term future. SOS will want draft picks to help us secure young players like Hopper without having to trade away our top draft picks. SOS would be happy with a band 3 compo pick and will let him walk if he can get that kind of pick in my opinion.

 

[ferrisb]

I'd be thrilled should clubs buy into this so hard, they'd give up their first born just to have picks in this draft.
Who knows what we can claim by trading our first rounder. All good.

The super draft of super drafts was 2001 yet it had these names in the top 20; Polak, Clarke, Molan, Power, Cole, Watson, Brooke, Ladson, Harvey, Elstone.

Don't get sucked in by think there's only one way to skin a cat. We'll see what happens soon enough.

Was just about to post similar, Harks. The way to 'win' trades IMHO is to identify clubs that are trying to make something happen. And help them make it happen. Examples:

• If someone desperately wants to trade up the draft order to target a specific player - eg GWS with Taranto, Freo and Brissy made out like bandits
• If someone desperately needs draft picks to secure a trade - eg Hawks last year, Saints made out like bandits (even before factoring in Hawthorn ladder slide)
• When GWS wanted to roll their draft picks forward and 'rebuy' compo picks, they overpaid for them

What about this year? If a team desperately wants to move some exposure from this year to next, listen to what they have to offer. Saints have two shiny picks. They might trade one of them to us for our 1st next year, with some big sweeteners. Richmond have two late 1st rounders. Brisbane an extra pick. They just might swap one for our 2nd rounder next year.

I am a big believer that when negotiating, don't think 'what do I want and how do I get it', you ask 'what does the other person want and what will they give me for it'. Not from an altruistic perceptive, but I find it yields better outcomes for you.

Not dismissing that next year looks much stronger than this year, but if everyone wants 2018 picks desperately, I'm happy to hear them out.

 

[Cripps17]

If we chase Kelly, I wonder if we could maneuver a bit using Hawks. We offer our 2017 1st pick for their 2018 1st. They'll be under pressure to get back in the first round given their position, but will probably rate their chance to move back up the ladder next year.

We can then use our own 2018 1st to offer up for Kelly (which I think would hold more weight than this years) and go into next years with Hawks (which I think would be a top 4 pick).

Maybe unlikely Hawks go for it, but Clarkson etc. may not be willing to look long term just yet.

 

[Jimmae]

Wieters is defenitely trouble

Loves a party. I don't know what he's on, but once they wind him up he hits the dance floor and just doesn't stop:

McKay is 2 years away from being close to ready

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If he's not in the team by round 1 next year, I'll be very surprised. We've got ways of spreading the load without Levi, we just need Cripps (not at the centre bounce, obviously), Rowe and McKay to be able to do 10-20 minutes of ruckwork each game.

 

[DangerousD]

Schuey re-signed long term deal

 

[BigFrizz36]

Levi saying he's letting his footy do the talking in regards to a new deal:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-06-22/levi-in-limbo-as-he-lets-footy-speak-for-itself

Probably not the best way for him to go... All his footy tells me is he's a one trick pony who is very inconsistent.

If I were him or his agent I'd do a bit more selling than "look at my footy then get back to me "

Which trick is his one trick then?

* Being our leading goalkicker
* Averaging 8 hit outs a week as a 20% ruck.
* Being one of the best contested marks in the comp
* Improving his overall set shot ratio this year (still not great)
* Crashing packs and continually hurting opposition players whilst doing it.

There is no doubt that Levi will attract suitors. Would love to keep him but can't begrudge him if gets an offer that sets him up as this will be his last chance at big money.

 

[Coops93]

Which trick is his one trick then?

* Being our leading goalkicker
* Averaging 8 hit outs a week as a 20% ruck.
* Being one of the best contested marks in the comp
* Improving his overall set shot ratio this year (still not great)
* Crashing packs and continually hurting opposition players whilst doing it.

There is no doubt that Levi will attract suitors. Would love to keep him but can't begrudge him if gets an offer that sets him up as this will be his last chance at big money.

He's a big body with a big mark. I thought his kicking had improved out of sight however he seems to have gone backwards the last 2 or 3 weeks.

He can provide a chop out in the ruck, so I was wrong there, good point.

My point wasn't so much about him as a player, I quite like Levi and when he was being bashed after the Suns game I was quite surprised. I thought he was one of our best. If he didn't miss those shots so badly and maybe kicked 2.1 people would have been raving about him, but his overall game was very good.

My point was that he hasn't really had the year or indeed career to be putting out things like I'll let my footy do the talking, because he's very inconsistent and his contract would be more based on potential output than current output, even at this age. If you were to pay him simply for his current output it wouldn't be much. He'd find a team no issue so long as his asking price wasn't too high, which I think it could be. I remember last year a report coming out that his agent was looking for 500-600k a year or so? That's ludicrous for Levi.

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

My questions:

• Is Levi likely to still be best 22 in 2018? (Yes)
• Does he perform an important role in our side? (Yes)
• Will we have the cap space to put a fair and improved offer to Levi? (Yes)
• Does Levi love the club and is it conceivable he'd want to stay if a fair offer from us was on the table? (I think so, yes)

Hence I think we'll put an offer for 2-3 years on the table (perhaps performance based for Year 3 with scope for more $ if he hits certain targets).

The big ? here is whether he receivs batshit crazy offers from Richmond, Collingwood or the likes. If our offer is say $500k (conceivable) but they come in offering a 4 year deal straight up for $600k then he may just bite.

Either way, we should be happy. We either keep him to perform that role for a few more years while the kids develop and our cap isn't affected or he leaves for a bigger offer (would have to be quite a bit more for him to leave, I believe/hope) and we're rewarded with a Tier 3 draft pick (likely early 20's).

If casboult continues to be in our best 22 it won't take long before we will need another mini rebuild

 

[TD2010]

If I'm undertanding this correctly DD, you're saying you're good for a 20?

 

[Matty411]

If casboult continues to be in our best 22 it won't take long before we will need another mini rebuild

Disagree there. But I do think McKay could play a similar role in time. But McKay and Cas can both play in the same side while he's still so young.

 

[rog1995]

Article in the Herald Sun today saying Levi is a wanted man and rival clubs are going to make him a nice offer to try and get him.

I hope so! That GC game was the one that sealed it for me. We cannot move forward with this guy so let's try and get rid of him when his value is at its highest.

Band 3 compo will be an early 20's pick which will be very handy at the trade table...

Early 20s pick for a player who is the best contested mark in the comp and is hitting his peak in a weak Draft? I don't think a player like Levi is easily replaced. He will help the development and protect a young player like Mackay immensely.
The club may want to blood Kerr and Mackay next year as our twin forwards. They may have suprised at the development of Kerr and hope to get Levi to have a bidding war with rival clubs to gain a better comp selection.

 

[FoeverBlues]

If casboult continues to be in our best 22 it won't take long before we will need another mini rebuild

Perfect ruck forward role, better than Tippett, Vickery etc...