Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Blue and Silver]

Adam Saad was a bit of a troublemaker in school. According to a former teacher.

Nothing too serious, but hey I don't get much insight so I thought I'd mention it.

 

[Arr0w]

It depends on what you have in mind. Sure we can trade pick 3 and 39 into two late first round picks

What I have in mind, is that I am hopeful that we continue taking the best kids via the draft, rather than giving up high end picks, at the end of this year. When our team is more competitive and on the cusp of finals, then go after these type of players.

 

[DirkDiggler]

What I have in mind, is that I am hopeful that we continue taking the best kids via the draft, rather than giving up high end picks, at the end of this year. When our team is more competitive and on the cusp of finals, then go after these type of players.

Agreed but you must also concede Whitfield and Hooper are practically kids. Picking an big bodied eighteen year old won't address our immediate need to protect Cripps.

 

[Arr0w]

Agreed but you must also concede Whitfield and Hooper are practically kids. Picking an big bodied eighteen year old won't address our immediate need to protect Cripps.

That is the crucial word, I am not concerned with the "immediate", I am more interested with the medium-long term, sustained success

 

[agro]

Adam Saad was a bit of a troublemaker in school. According to a former teacher.

Nothing too serious, but hey I don't get much insight so I thought I'd mention it.

Probably no worse than most of the mosquito fleet of the 1979-1982 Premiership Sides.

 

[Bluejob]

That is the crucial word, I am not concerned with the "immediate", I am more interested with the medium-long term, sustained success

These are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

If Cripps (and other young talent) are continually beat up and suffer loss after loss, why wouldn't they assess options? That equally causes long term issues.

Look at Brisbane.

 

[Jimmae]

I think he has comprehended the objective of a rebuild way more than you think.

The goal at the end of next year is to be a competitive finals team (i.e. top 4 viable). The rest is down to a little luck, the playing group and the coaches.

Everything SOS has done to this point reflects that.

 

[Arr0w]

These are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

If Cripps (and other young talent) are continually beat up and suffer loss after loss, why wouldn't they assess options? That equally causes long term issues.

Look at Brisbane.

Perhaps I should have answered if this way.

What SOS has done, is effectively similar to a stockbroker, buy low and improve the value of the assets. An example of this, is what we effectively received for Menzel. Kerridge, Plowman, Phillips, Lamb and Sumner. We only need one player to make the grade and we at least break-even on the deal, even if Menzel makes the grade. Along the way, we have also brought in, older, bigger bodied players to help the kids.

I would be really surprised, if SOS & Co deviated from this, at this juncture of our rebuild

 

[Blue__Balls]

These are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

If Cripps (and other young talent) are continually beat up and suffer loss after loss, why wouldn't they assess options? That equally causes long term issues.

Look at Brisbane.

If that's a major concern for us, there will be opportunities to pick up senior bodies as DFA's or via trades for late picks. Essentially what we've done in recruiting guys like Palmer and Wright.

 

[ODNBlue]

Could someone give an estimate as to the point value of Hopper both to us, and to GWS (assuming they're not the same)?
http://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Points-draft-value.pdf

I ask because it appears to me that making a statement that GWS would expect 2 first round picks for Hopper is a lot like asking, "How long is a piece of string" considering that pick 1 is around the same point value as picks 16, 17 and 18 combined. Perhaps he is worth two first round picks, as long as those picks are both below 16 (not saying he is, will leave it to someone who knows more than me to make that determination). Perhaps he's worth Pick 3.

Anyway...

 

[Bluejob]

Lets just hope we can get a player who does both....... *wait for someone to insert taco girl image.

 

[Cripps17]

Adam Saad was a bit of a troublemaker in school. According to a former teacher.

Have heard he's run into trouble a few times in the past, but yet to be caught apparently.

 

[gandaal]

Id trade pick 3 for Hopper and walk away laughing.

 

[ODNBlue]

Id trade pick 3 for Hopper and walk away laughing.

Does that mean we could pay picks 14 and 15 and walk away laughing?

 

[gandaal]

Does that mean we could pay picks 14 and 15 and walk away laughing?

Probably but having those sort of picks allows you more trade flexibility. I'd hope we'd try and arrange an alternative trade that lets us give up just 14 or 15.

 

[Azul]

Adam Saad was a bit of a troublemaker in school. According to a former teacher.

Nothing too serious, but hey I don't get much insight so I thought I'd mention it.

The President of France had an inappropriate relationship with his drama teacher; what's your point?

 

[Benaly28]

Think people have suggested the pick we get for Gibbs if he still decides to leave, some may have mentioned our future 1st, but that is something I can not even come close to getting behind, could very easily end up becoming pick 1 or pick 2 for Hopper and at best would be around pick 8-10, which is still a little high.

So your saying we could finish second to last next year based on your comment.

 

[gandaal]

So your saying we could finish second to last next year based on your comment.

Your saying it can't happen?

Trade Gibbs, Kreuzer and Casboult leave, while Murph and Cripps have a bad run with injury...

 

[Blue_Fusion]

To your first paragraph, obviously if SOS thinks the player we can get in the draft at #3 is better than Hopper then we keep the pick.

We are arguing that if they aren't or are equal to Hopper, then we should do the trade since there will be a benefit.

I'm seeing those advocating for taking our picks to the draft just wanting to do so for the sake of it because they think it's 'the right thing to do' without looking at any other factors.

The others, like me, are arguing to keep our options open and be willing to trade it if we get a good deal, which is the correct way to approach it.

Other factors are being looked at. Draft picks give the recruiting team more options than being pigeon holed to just Hopper.

There's no way SOS could know whether Hopper is better than anything available at say pick #3. He would not know who's still available at that pick during trade period. If there's one player he rates higher than Hopper, then he shouldn't trade that pick. Essentially, SOS would need to determine whether Hopper is better than anyone in the draft. McCluggage slipped to #3 last year after being touted as #1 for a while.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Why not? Why shut down what appears to be a good relationship between clubs with a good avenue for players in deals that help both clubs out?

Because then we are giving them a way to cycle through highly rated kids and they will keep the best ones to themselves at this rate.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Sure, but we're not talking about bringing in someone of average quality.

Hopper is a terrific young footballer who is probably being played a little out of position at the moment, given the strength of GWS' midfield. He was widely regarded as one of the best in the 2015 draft pool, and at 20 years of age you'd expect him to have a long career ahead of him.

Whitfield is probably a little unheralded given the quality around him also. He's probably not projecting to become a superstar but rather an outstanding footballer out on the wing, who has already played a fair bit of very good football. He's obviously had a minor blip recently, but at 22/23 you'd expect he too has a long future ahead of him.

I'll put it this way, if I was given the option of Shiel or Hopper + a late 1st rounder, I'd take Shiel everyday of the week. If Shiel was on the table for pick #3, I would have no problem with making that trade.

A first round pick isn't 'change'.

Yeah change wasn't the right word, more so to my example above, a late 1st rounder could net us a decent player but going back to my point (and this is imo, not trying to state it as fact) 1 elite player > 1 very good player + 1 decent player

It may not eventuate, but trading our 2018 first makes a lot of sense to me right now.

If it allows us to bring in say Hopper + another first round pick this year, I think that's a great result.

For the record I don't want to trade our first this year, but we shouldn't completely rule it out if we benefit for doing so.

I'd try and negotiate that 3 way trade I suggested with Adelaide. We get Hopper + Crows 2nd, Crows get Gibbs + our 3rd, GWS get Crows 1st.

If we were going to trade the 2018 1st, then it should be for no less than a top 7 pick imo.

 

[reubsblues]

Under no circumstances do we trade picks in the top 5. hopper is not worth a top 5 pick i would only trade a top 5 pick for a bone-fide star "kelly"

 

[Benaly28]

Your saying it can't happen?

Trade Gibbs, Kreuzer and Casboult leave, while Murph and Cripps have a bad run with injury...

If we finish in that position next year then may as well pack up,shut the doors and go home.This is the "gap"year next year is the start of the climb back.Gibbs certain to go,kreuzer is heart and soul,casboilt can be replaced,injuries are just bad luck can happen to anyone.Our draftees will have another 10-15 games full pre season build a tank and get bigger bodies.IMO we should get better.

 

[LordLucifer]

The goal at the end of next year is to be a competitive finals team (i.e. top 4 viable). The rest is down to a little luck, the playing group and the coaches.

Everything SOS has done to this point reflects that.

Top 4 at the end of next year ??

Yeah ............. good luck with that.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I don't know other than for the fact I've brought up his name on plenty of occasions.
If he is to be deemed a top ten player, we can afford not be put in a position we're forced to take him with our first.

Brought up this case in point before, as clubs have taken players a little earlier than they may have wanted in the normal course of events.
i.e. Luke McDonald in 2013. You have to work the system for the best result. Had have North their time again, they may have moved things around.


Cut a long story short: If Ben at this stage is seen to be an elite talent, we hide him as much as we can and we remove ourselves from a situation we're forced to use a premium pick on him......so, don't have that pick and use points for the collect.

This is the big concern for me as well. If Ben is rated as elite and someone bids on him before our 1st, then we have to consume our 1st pick or let him go elsewhere. If we don't have that pick otoh...

The other risk is what if we have another pick #4 and the other 3 teams don't bid on him? They will reap the rewards...