Position 2017 Midfielders

[Sydney Kicker]

Here you go. Had three categories, last year's real price data. Tried to do checks on data as I went along, may well have missed something
Looked at rookies overall, then subset that debuted rd 1-3 (figured there's often the odd early rookie corrective trade), by position (not shown).
There are some artefacts, it being single-year snapshot, Listed blokes looked at further down. Missed a few, would think. Haven't attached any comments.
View attachment 329178

Blokes looked at:
View attachment 329173

Thanks for doing that. Its a really useful analysis.

 

[Moustachio]

Here you go. Had three categories, last year's real price data. Tried to do checks on data as I went along, may well have missed something
Looked at rookies overall, then subset that debuted rd 1-3 (figured there's often the odd early rookie corrective trade), by position (not shown).
There are some artefacts, it being single-year snapshot, Listed blokes looked at further down. Missed a few, would think. Haven't attached any comments.
View attachment 329178

Blokes looked at:
View attachment 329173

Very interesting. So cheap rookies make about the same cash, play just as many early games, and reach their culling point after fewer games.

 

[Moustachio]

I did last years

basically the average of <150k rookies exceeded all >150k rookies in avg/starting price value, the averages are pretty similar, 63 to 60.

Game theory suggests don't bother over $150k

*MN = 5395

Based on the above I value rookies roughly as follows, (first half of the season average).

R1 86
R2 84
R3 76
R4 75
R5 73
R6 73
R7 69
R8 68
R9 67
R10 63
R11 62
R12 61
R13 60
R14 59
R15 59
R16 57

Can you explain this a bit? How are last 2 columns calculated?

 

[Falchoon]

Can you explain this a bit? How are last 2 columns calculated?

Price is the starting price $ amount converted to points - by dividing the starting price by 5395 ie the "Magic Number".

ie Tippa is $102400/5395= 18.98 points

He averaged 76.3pts over the first 10 games. 76.30-18.98= 57.32.

therefore Tippa averaged 57 points over his starting price.

 

[Metapod]

I did last years

basically the average of <150k rookies exceeded all >150k rookies in avg/starting price value, the averages are pretty similar, 63 to 60.

Game theory suggests don't bother over $150k

*MN = 5395

Based on the above I value rookies roughly as follows, (first half of the season average).

R1 86
R2 84
R3 76
R4 75
R5 73
R6 73
R7 69
R8 68
R9 67
R10 63
R11 62
R12 61
R13 60
R14 59
R15 59
R16 57

Very interesting, thanks for sharing mate! As you said, suggests to stay away from those expensive rookies!

Edit - wondering how Weitering fared? Did quite well at the start from memory

 

[Falchoon]

Very interesting, thanks for sharing mate! As you said, suggests to stay away from those expensive rookies!

Edit - wondering how Weitering fared? Did quite well at the start from memory

same story

JacobWEITERING 67.3 220800 40.93 26.32

 

[gutsroy]

Very interesting. So cheap rookies make about the same cash, play just as many early games, and reach their culling point after fewer games.

Yeah, at least last year's. The quicker price appreciation is driven by the lower floor as expected, and other factors which might mitigate that (better job security / higher early - mid-season average out of the gate vs cheaper rookies, e.g.) weren't borne out by the data.
You can afford to leave money on the table and still make a respectable (say 150k+?) profit and commence upgrading / downgrading earlier where opportunities present themselves.
That said, some of last year's high -price rookies maybe had unusually high rate of ups and downs (McCartin injury-/concussion impact, Weitering shoulder in game rd 6, e.g., Schache KPF in a struggling side) vs other years, might skew at least a little.

 

[gutsroy]

Thanks for doing that. Its a really useful analysis.

No worries. Yeah, it's a bit like the horses - bet on speed, not class.

 

[Super Hans]

What do people see Heppell averaging?

 

[Milanista28]

What do people see Heppell averaging?

Between 100-110 IMO. If he can get closer to 110 he'd be a great pick up at his price.

 

[stevebbb]

What do people see Heppell averaging?

100-105 imo

 

[markm106]

What do people see Heppell averaging?

100-105 imo

Agree. 100-105 seems about right.

 

[Feerits Elf]

Mrs Dangerfield's up the duff

 

[Obese Arachnid]

Mrs Dangerfield's up the duff

Wrong thread, try the 2035 rookie thread.

 

[Feerits Elf]

Wrong thread, try the 2035 rookie thread.

My flux capacitor's on the blink

 

[Obese Arachnid]

My flux capacitor's on the blink

It happens a lot.

I found tightening the triple headed asgunsion grommet seems to do the trick.
I'd also check the air in your tyres.

 

[Hairy Lager]

Mrs Dangerfield's up the duff

Go on...

 

[Hairy Lager]

Between 100-110 IMO. If he can get closer to 110 he'd be a great pick up at his price.

100-105 imo

Heppell is young, a gun and has something to prove, I like him as a pick.

Could be a keeper M8.

Bomber supporters info on his work load the last 16 odd months?

 

[Feerits Elf]

Go on...

That's what she said

Followed shortly thereafter by "get off ..."

 

[stevebbb]

Heppell is young, a gun and has something to prove, I like him as a pick.

Could be a keeper M8.

Bomber supporters info on his work load the last 16 odd months?

How much is he?

 

[Hairy Lager]

How much is he?

Same price range as Crippa last year me thinks, 513K is juicy. 105-110 likely?

 

[stevebbb]

Same price range as Crippa last year me thinks, 513K is juicy. 105-110 likely?

100-105 seems more likely for me

Murphy and Beams are cheaper and can go 100++

 

[Hairy Lager]

100-105 seems more likely for me

Murphy and Beams are cheaper and can go 100++

Murphy old and slowing, Beams injured and no guarantee to get back to his best....

Risky but agree Beams and Murphy will be in ahead of him IF their preseasons show they're fit.

 

[Huttabito]

You'd have to back Heppell in for 105ish. Last two seasons of 106.4 ('14) and 104.8 ('15). I can't see an increase in output with the year off but he is young and a gun so wouldn't expect him to slow too much.

Feel safer putting the extra 70k into Heppell over Beams/Murphy.

 

[Slax]

Tmitch and JOM watch for sure. Think Beams should get a look in, will be well priced and we know he can score well.

Proceed with caution on Beams, history says has injury problems.

Mathieson from Brisbane will be a good buy as has improved his fitness a lot over the preseason, preferring to work on endurance than take a break. Rockliff will spend more time forward as well for Brisbane, remember he was leading TAC Cup goal kicker in his final year.