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Game Day 2017 National Draft

The OP for our new picks must be accurate and informative. Who should do it?

  • Anyone

    Votes: 39 35.5%

  • Wait for TD

    Votes: 71 64.5%
  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .

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Boris the Contradiction said:
Queensland boy.
If he has a good 2018 he may be a valuable piece in getting Lynch over. Easier to do if he's on the senior list.
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It’s just as easy to trade a rookie as it is a senior player. As long as GC is happy to have Thomas on their senior list there would be no issue trading him, even if he’s currently a rookie.
 
Boris the Contradiction said:
Yea I know, but the discussion is about trading of rookies, not playing them.

Sydney were able to force us to trade for Murray (a cat b rookie), by offering him a senior list contract. Had he refused the contract, he would have been forced to step away from AFL for 12 months. I didn't think this applied to regular rookies such at Thomas who can just walk at the end of their contracts and go wherever they choose as a free agent, but I might be wrong? Can anyone confirm?
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Assuming Thomas is still uncontracted at the end of next year, he’d be a free agent anyway. The scenario put forth would assume he’s extended his contract again.
 
Boris the Contradiction said:
Yea I know, but the discussion is about trading of rookies, not playing them.

Sydney were able to force us to trade for Murray (a cat b rookie), by offering him a senior list contract. Had he refused the contract, he would have been forced to step away from AFL for 12 months. I didn't think this applied to regular rookies such at Thomas who can just walk at the end of their contracts and go wherever they choose as a free agent, but I might be wrong? Can anyone confirm?
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Ah right sorry for that. Yes if Thomas out of contract and not traded he becomes a delisted free agent and can go to who ever he likes if there is a suitor for him.
 

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Boris the Contradiction said:
Not really, he would be a restricted free agent as a senior listed player, so we could still exercise some control and he therefore may have trade value.
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No he wouldn’t. You need to be in the top 25% salary bracket at your club to be restricted. Thomas was a UFA this year and will be next year if he doesn’t extend his contract early.
 
Pie 4 Life said:
I'd be stunned if either Brissy or Freo took Rayner. He wasn't wanting to go North and I can't see Perth being more desirable.
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He must be dopey to go on TV and state he is happy to go to go anywhere, and happy to go Nth when he doesn't want to go. Better off being quite.
 

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Scodog10 said:
A penny for your thoughts. Would you consider that to be two instances of an ACL tear or one? He would need to undertake two bouts of surgery and rehab, but is the trauma associated with knee reconstructions mostly a result of the surgery, the act of tearing the ligament or a combination of both? I don’t have the full story behind the failed graft unfortunately so I’m curious as to the medical standing on his knee.
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It probably becomes semantics after a point, but I'd consider it to be one. The second tear wasn't of the ACL but a graft. The devil is in the detail, unfortunately, because we don't have any (no doubt the clubs would, however).

The trauma associated with knee reconstruction is generally in the mechanism of injury itself; most ACL injuries in elite athletes are of the non-contact variety, that is to say, they occur in change of direction or landing without "taking a hit" from an opponent. In these instances it can frequently be the ACL which is ruptured in isolation, or perhaps with some meniscal damage (not always, however, see Minnesota Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater who had a non-contact knee dislocation). However when the foot is planted and the athlete takes a hit from the side, you see more of the combination ACL + MCL/LCL + meniscus + articular cartilage injuries which can leave the knee very unstable, do a lot of damage and take a much longer recovery time.

Which did Bonar have? I have no idea. Where did they take the graft from? Well, we don't know that either, but in terms of most commonly used grafts, you're looking at;
1) Hamstring tendon (semitendinosus, gracilis) "autograft"
2) Central 1/3 patellar tendon "autograft"
3) LARS graft
4) Cadaver graft "allograft"
5) Porcine graft "xenograft"

1) and to a lesser extent 2) dominate the market, 3) has reasonable results but when it does fail it's disastrous, 4) is rarely performed and has an unacceptably high failure rate, and 5) is still in the experimental stage. In all likelihood, Bonar would have had a hamstring tendon graft from the same knee as the donor site. Why did it fail? Well that could be because of a less-than-ideal graft... surgeons I work with prefer to get 10cm worth of donor tissue to make up the ACL graft, and anatomical variation from person to person means that sometimes that just isn't possible. It's also possible that he had an ideal surgery with a very viable graft, went through rehab, started training for or playing footy again and it ruptured. In the first year after surgery, generally, the operated knee is more likely to re-rupture than the good knee, but after one year the surgically repaired knee is stronger than the good knee and the good knee is actually the more likely to rupture. So assuming he was still within that first year post-surgically, the rehabbing knee was at a higher risk of re-injury when it happened.

Then we come to the question of what did they perform the second surgery with? Bonar likely has no suitable hamstring tendon on the injured side, so did they go for patellar tendon, or harvest the hamstring from the good side? And how "traumatic" was the second injury, was it simply that the graft failed early under increasing loading, or was there a traumatic event involved? Certainly a second injury increases the chance for articular cartilage damage which could cause premature arthritis, for example. Possibly they went for a LARS surgery second time around, but I wouldn't recommend that in any athlete let alone one so young.

So yeah, there's a boatload we don't know. The injured knee could be bad. The musculature around the knee could be in need of a lot of rehab, as we saw with Brent MacAffer after he did his ACL, then had ongoing hamstring problems as they were the donor site for the ACL graft. His other knee could also be affected in this way. And then you have to consider that a revision of a knee reconstruction has a higher failure rate, and he's also statistically more likely to rupture his good knee now, as he's been proven to have a predisposition to ACL injury, be it contact or non-contact.

I'd let someone else take the chance on Bonar given what I do know, while conceding there's a great deal I don't... but the clubs knowing a great deal more would be in a better position to make the risk assessment.
 
Boogy said:
He must be dopey to go on TV and state he is happy to go to go anywhere, and happy to go Nth when he doesn't want to go. Better off being quite.
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They would know privately he isn't keen. He doesn't want to look like a sook/soft etc. to the rest of the AFL public. Privately he would be telling the clubs what his actual interests are I would say.
 
The Royal Sampler said:
It probably becomes semantics after a point, but I'd consider it to be one. The second tear wasn't of the ACL but a graft. The devil is in the detail, unfortunately, because we don't have any (no doubt the clubs would, however).

The trauma associated with knee reconstruction is generally in the mechanism of injury itself; most ACL injuries in elite athletes are of the non-contact variety, that is to say, they occur in change of direction or landing without "taking a hit" from an opponent. In these instances it can frequently be the ACL which is ruptured in isolation, or perhaps with some meniscal damage (not always, however, see Minnesota Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater who had a non-contact knee dislocation). However when the foot is planted and the athlete takes a hit from the side, you see more of the combination ACL + MCL/LCL + meniscus + articular cartilage injuries which can leave the knee very unstable, do a lot of damage and take a much longer recovery time.

Which did Bonar have? I have no idea. Where did they take the graft from? Well, we don't know that either, but in terms of most commonly used grafts, you're looking at;
1) Hamstring tendon (semitendinosus, gracilis) "autograft"
2) Central 1/3 patellar tendon "autograft"
3) LARS graft
4) Cadaver graft "allograft"
5) Porcine graft "xenograft"

1) and to a lesser extent 2) dominate the market, 3) has reasonable results but when it does fail it's disastrous, 4) is rarely performed and has an unacceptably high failure rate, and 5) is still in the experimental stage. In all likelihood, Bonar would have had a hamstring tendon graft from the same knee as the donor site. Why did it fail? Well that could be because of a less-than-ideal graft... surgeons I work with prefer to get 10cm worth of donor tissue to make up the ACL graft, and anatomical variation from person to person means that sometimes that just isn't possible. It's also possible that he had an ideal surgery with a very viable graft, went through rehab, started training for or playing footy again and it ruptured. In the first year after surgery, generally, the operated knee is more likely to re-rupture than the good knee, but after one year the surgically repaired knee is stronger than the good knee and the good knee is actually the more likely to rupture. So assuming he was still within that first year post-surgically, the rehabbing knee was at a higher risk of re-injury when it happened.

Then we come to the question of what did they perform the second surgery with? Bonar likely has no suitable hamstring tendon on the injured side, so did they go for patellar tendon, or harvest the hamstring from the good side? And how "traumatic" was the second injury, was it simply that the graft failed early under increasing loading, or was there a traumatic event involved? Certainly a second injury increases the chance for articular cartilage damage which could cause premature arthritis, for example. Possibly they went for a LARS surgery second time around, but I wouldn't recommend that in any athlete let alone one so young.

So yeah, there's a boatload we don't know. The injured knee could be bad. The musculature around the knee could be in need of a lot of rehab, as we saw with Brent MacAffer after he did his ACL, then had ongoing hamstring problems as they were the donor site for the ACL graft. His other knee could also be affected in this way. And then you have to consider that a revision of a knee reconstruction has a higher failure rate, and he's also statistically more likely to rupture his good knee now, as he's been proven to have a predisposition to ACL injury, be it contact or non-contact.

I'd let someone else take the chance on Bonar given what I do know, while conceding there's a great deal I don't... but the clubs knowing a great deal more would be in a better position to make the risk assessment.
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Fantastic post, though I did get a bit hungry at point 5.
 
I like Coffield and Bonar too, but does anyone who watches TAC Cup know why his numbers were so low? You'd think looking at him in the champs that he would absolutely run riot at TAC level. Maybe his tank just isnt there?

Bonar is the enigma. To test so well after two knee recos is incredibly impressive, but has limited exposed form, and is obv a risk of having more problems. Would love it if he slides to 38.... which some believe he might
 
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cityslick1 said:
I like Coffield and Bonar too, but does anyone who watches TAC Cup know why his numbers were so low? You'd think looking at him in the champs that he would absolutely run riot at TAC level. Maybe his tank just isnt there?

Bonar is the enigma. To test so well after two knee recos is incredibly impressive, but has limited exposed form, and is obv a risk of having more problems. Would love it if he slides to 38.... which some believe he might
Bonar's the biggest upside of anyone in the draft and highly rated by the stingrays. A really good mark and plays forward, but is an ACL risk as he's hard surgery twice on it already. Smashed it at the combine. Could be a sneaky for us. Might be too risky for pick 6 though, I wouldn't be dissapointed if we drafted him though.
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There’s no way Bonar lasts till 38. That would be absolute madness.
 
cityslick1 said:
I like Coffield and Bonar too, but does anyone who watches TAC Cup know why his numbers were so low? You'd think looking at him in the champs that he would absolutely run riot at TAC level. Maybe his tank just isnt there?

Bonar is the enigma. To test so well after two knee recos is incredibly impressive, but has limited exposed form, and is obv a risk of having more problems. Would love it if he slides to 38.... which some believe he might
Bonar's the biggest upside of anyone in the draft and highly rated by the stingrays. A really good mark and plays forward, but is an ACL risk as he's hard surgery twice on it already. Smashed it at the combine. Could be a sneaky for us. Might be too risky for pick 6 though, I wouldn't be dissapointed if we drafted him though.
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Coffield' numbers are deceiving. He was often tasked with kick-in duties and often kicked long but obviously doesn't count kicking in. Something to keep in mind anyway. Played in defence nearly the whole year aside from a game or two so naturally numbers are lower than a midfielder. But he rarely wastes a disposal.
 

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Game Day 2017 National Draft

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