Prediction 2017 Prediction Thread

[actiongreggars]

FREMANTLE, COLLINGWOOD, ESSENDON, MELBOURNE, ST KILDA and PORT ADELAIDE range from $2.35 to $2.50, while the top 7 teams are below $1.45 to make the 8 on the NSW TAB. Like the betting market I see glimmer of hopeful Port especially if the list can stay fit.

 

[portly]

After the first two JLT games I saw us as bottom four.

After the third my confidence arose.

Definitely a chance for top 8, maybe, maybe higher.

 

[tribey]

Most on SEN yesterday had us finishing bottom 4.

AFL media didn't miss us either (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-03-20/crystal-ball-aflcomaus-2017-season-predictions):

• Ben Collins
Headline you'll see: No Shanghai surprise: Chinese support Suns and Kochie goes crook

• Ryan Davidson
Headline you won't see: Power surge saves Hinkley

• Nat Edwards
Headline you'll see: Port sees red as Chinese fans side with Suns

• Ben Guthrie
Headline you won't see: Port Adelaide president David Koch declares club is rebuilding

• Travis King
Headline you'll see: Power out on Hinkley

• Jennifer Phelan
Headline you won't see: Power lose first 10 games, Kochie fine with it

 

[Full Credit]

I really don't understand this. Even last year we weren't amazing, but we weren't utter shit. We only just missed the 8 again, what makes us drop further? Is it the return of Ryder and actually having a ruckman? All the injured players we have returning from last year? Does this somehow make us worse? Plus our really impressive draft picks and rookies.

Most games we had at least 6-8 players who would be considered out of our best 22 playing. We got rid of some deadwood like Mitchell, Butcher and O'Shea. Now we actually look to have some really good depth.

There is absolutely nothing we did to make our list worse that would have us dropping 4-5 spots to the bottom 4. In fact with our returning fit players and recruits, you would think the opposite could easily occur.

I swear these so called professional's have no idea at all and don't actually do their research on teams that aren't in Melbourne or aren't a premiership threat in their eyes. We will not finish bottom 4, I can guarantee that. I will put my house on it.

I was going to like this until I saw the very last bit, just felt a little too much like tempting fate. Agree on everything else though, the predictions by the so called experts have me oscillating between annoyance and ambivalence. Let that cooldad watson shitcan us all he likes, even if we dead last at least we're not the flipping druggo bombers.

 

[Janus]

AFL media didn't miss us either (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-03-20/crystal-ball-aflcomaus-2017-season-predictions):

• Ben Collins
Headline you'll see: No Shanghai surprise: Chinese support Suns and Kochie goes crook

• Ryan Davidson
Headline you won't see: Power surge saves Hinkley

• Nat Edwards
Headline you'll see: Port sees red as Chinese fans side with Suns

• Ben Guthrie
Headline you won't see: Port Adelaide president David Koch declares club is rebuilding

• Travis King
Headline you'll see: Power out on Hinkley

• Jennifer Phelan
Headline you won't see: Power lose first 10 games, Kochie fine with it

AFL House really hates that we are making inroads into China, don't they?

 

[drazah]

1. West Coast - They've got the number 1 midfield (Schuey, Mitchell, Gaff and Priddis), the number 1 key forward (Kennedy) and a pretty decent back six (McGovern and a future star in Barass). They could easily be 9-2 at the halfway point of the year, and they've got a good draw overall. They're the oldest list the comp, were in a GF two years ago and if Natanui comes back then they'll be very tough to beat in a home final.

2. GWS - A very good team, and a team the AFL would like to see go well. They showed they can win away from home last year and a GF berth is expected.

3. Sydney - They're basically a top 4 lock for me, most of their players have re-signed and having Franklin, Kennedy, Hannebury, Jack, Parker, Rampe, Grundy, etc means its a no brainer for them to make the top 4 again.

4. Western Bulldogs - There are three types of premierships sides; ones who have a methodical, rigid, sealed tight game plan which carries them the whole year and into September glory where they rarely drop consistency and dominate every key position on the ground (West Coast 1994, Carlton 1995, Essendon 2000, Geelong 2007). The second are the inbetween premiership teams, good teams that were par for the course of their respective years and didn't surprise nor upset any other team on the day (Brisbane Lions 2002, Port 2004, Geelong 2011, Sydney 2012). The third are the snatched-one/stole-one/fluked-one premiership teams (Essendon 1993, Adelaide 1998, Hawthorn 2008 and now Bulldogs 2016). The Bulldogs were the best team in the final month of last year, and with luck and momentum they won the flag. With or without a flag last year they'd still be in everyone's top 4 I suspect, but saying that they look the least likely back-to-back premiership side in history, but if they win it then they haven't fluked and are a great side.

5. Hawthorn - They'll get enough wins and they always seem to have luck and the bounce of the ball go there way. A charitable position I may have put them in but I'm too reluctant to write them off.

6. Adelaide - A stretched out midfield but respectible forward and backline means there's enough talent in their list to keep them in the top 8 comfortably. Riley passes to Rory, back to Reilly, Rory holds it, holds it.

7. Geelong - They lost Bartel/Enright and are too reliant on Dangerwood to win them games. They'll make finals but that's all to expect. It's there high winning record at Skilled Stadium which almost guarntees them to win 9-10 games at home, ergo a finals place.

8. St Kilda - The one spot of the top eight where a new entrant seems likely from 2016's top eight. The Saints are a good, explosive, plucky team with a good brain in the box (Richo) and I think they're slightly ahead of Collingwood and Melbourne (who they had the wood over in 2016).

9. Melbourne - Everyone expects them to be in the finals but I still feel they're too raw, inexperienced and only sporadically show high end talent that fizzles quickly. I think a 2018 finals place looks likely. In another weaker year they might get in the top 8, but they're a bit of a prodigal son for the AFL and like the Western Bulldogs they're quite chic at the moment.

10. Collingwood - They've basically loaded up on new recruits and heightened expectations in the offseason, but they're getting by on reputation and not enough output. Like Shaw before Buckley, club greats are not always the best choice for coach.

11. Port Adelaide - I've written summaries of where Port is at all over this forum. But basically I know my club way too well and I know where they'll finish up. I thought at times we were a tough club last season that could win well and dish it out on teams below us on the ladder. But the early season Showdown and the GWS loss two weeks later just showed to me that this club are very suspectible to really losing their way in a season. As an analogy, they are a F1 race car with a bad driver behind the wheel. They have all the ingredients, but they can't deliver.

12. Fremantle - They'll improve as expected but maybe not enough to get them back a spot in the top 8. Their top 5 players are very good, but past that they drop off in talent like an anchor.

13. North Melbourne - It's hard to know where to put Norf. They've lost a bunch of elders that were more overexperienced than they were actually fair dinkum finals quality. I think Norf can grind out some wins, but they'll face the slide down the ladder.

14. Essendon - They're back and I don't expect them to really do much. They may have a few 'inspiring' moments where the broadcasters really ham up an average win in a journalistically dreamy and happy way, but they'll be rusty in their performances and they're a broken club mending itself organisationally as well as on the field.

15. Richmond - Their 2016 season was back to their norm I thought. They're the pampered, big 4 Victorian club who get overexposed, overdiscussed and overanalysed every season but never really amount to much.

16. Carlton - They'll still find the heart and desire to rise up and beat us but other than that they're just a list of recycled Crews players, youth and one superstar in Cripps but I can't really see them doing much.

17. Gold Coast - They get Ablett back but he's really the shell of a once GOAT player. Besides May, Hall and Lynch who are talented, the rest of their list seem like QFL fill in players.

18. Brisbane - Objectively the worst team in the comp. Their forward line and backline are absolute bare-bone L-platers of inexperience and youth. They'll find a quarter of competitiveness against a top-4 team at home to be the highlight of their season.

Brownlow: Marcus Bontempelli
Coleman: Josh Kennedy (WCE)
Grand Finalists/Premier: West Coast vs Greater Western Sydney (West Coast win)
Port AA Squad Members: Nil
Ports B&F: Ollie Wines
Ports Most Improved: Tom Clurey

So, almost identical to last year? Can't see this happening. Think a little bigger darling!

 

[Lagooner]

AFL media didn't miss us either (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-03-20/crystal-ball-aflcomaus-2017-season-predictions):

• Ben Collins
Headline you'll see: No Shanghai surprise: Chinese support Suns and Kochie goes crook

• Ryan Davidson
Headline you won't see: Power surge saves Hinkley

• Nat Edwards
Headline you'll see: Port sees red as Chinese fans side with Suns

• Ben Guthrie
Headline you won't see: Port Adelaide president David Koch declares club is rebuilding

• Travis King
Headline you'll see: Power out on Hinkley

• Jennifer Phelan
Headline you won't see: Power lose first 10 games, Kochie fine with it

*bookmarks for future figbooty gloats*

 

[PowerForGood]

I'm only going to comment on Ports.

Finish: H&A 6th. (will turn close losses into close wins) plus a finals win.
Leading goalkicker: C Dixon (52)
AA Squad members: R Gray, J Hombsch, C Wingard (one of the big reasons that above will happen).
B&F: 3 votes: R...........Gray, Port Adelaide.
Most Improved (if Brett Eddy not eligible): Karl Amon / Riley Bonner (I'm predicting one of these two will be in our best 22 by year's end).

 

[Scholz Supremacy]

My first attempt at the ladder predictor: Looks like I rate Melbourne highly, biased to Port, have North, Hawthorn and even Dogs dropping out the 8 while Brisbane improve a little.

 

[Hammer#8]

So, almost identical to last year? Can't see this happening. Think a little bigger darling!

You do get years where the top 4 is made up of teams that missed finals the year before, but there were a few reasons for this. Yoyo-ing from top 8 to bottom 8 was fairly fluid and easier for most teams to do pre-2007 (Melbourne for instance consecutively made the finals and missed the finals for 6 years running). The competition opened up when Brisbane's run stopped and for two years there it was anyone's flag to win.

The landscape now has changed, when teams are at the the top they're tending to stay there for longer (the last decade has seen Geelong, Sydney and Hawthorn consistently make the top 4 and place in the GFs regularly). The top talent has all gone to GWS, meaning bottom clubs can't inject their list with talent and climb back up the ladder as quickly. The Sydney COLA meant the Swans landed big signings in Tippett and Franklin which was stopped before it got any more out of hand, Hawthorn were able to trade out players and have a monopoly on the draft and Geelong effectively did the same trading Ablett, Chapman, SJ, Podsiadly, etc to stay in finals contention.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

My Ladder:

Syd
StK
Port
WB
Geel
GWS
Haw
Melb

WCE
GC
Freo
Adel
Nth
Rich
Coll
Ess
Bris
Carlt

2017 Brownlow Medallist: Buddy Franklin
2017 Coleman Medallist: Buddy Franklin
2017 Grand Finalists/Premier: Syd v St K (Sydney Win)
2017 PAFC AA squad members:

Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard, Jack Hombsch, Jared Polec
2017 PAFC B&F: Jack Hombsch
2017 PAFC Most Improved: Jared Polec
2017 PAFC Rookie of the year: SPP



Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[Tor Eckman]

I did the AFL Ladder predictor as well.
Didn't dwell too much on who I though would win each game, but this is what I ended up with.


2017 Brownlow Medallist: Bontempelli
2017 Coleman Medallist: Josh Kennedy
2017 Grand Finalists/Premier: GWS v WCE (GWS Win)
2017 PAFC AA squad members: Hombsch, Wines, Gray.

EDIT: Ignore the percentage, I didn't alter it for any games and it defaults to 12 points across the board.

 

[MrChow]

1. PaFC
2. GWS
3. Sydney
4. Geelong
5. St. K
6. Cows
7. Western B
8. Melb's
9. WCE
10. Hawks
11.freo
12. Essendon
13. Norf
14. Collingwood
15. Gold Coast
16. Calton
17. Richmond
18. Brisbane

Brownlow- fyfe
Coleman- buddy f
Gf- Pafc vs Geelong (2007 revenge grudge match) Pafc by 145 points
Pafc all ozzy- r gray, Wingod, hombschy
Rising star- spp

 

[DaTBird187]

 

[David Puddy]

Won't be too far off I reckon - then I still have Sydney winning the GF from fourth as well.

 

[Macca19]

 

[Magus]

I'm confident when Macca19 is confident.

 

[Steve Dore]

My top eight;

GWS
Sydney
WB
WCE
Geelong
Adelaide
Hawthorn
Ports

...

I used the ladder predictor and came up with this;





Maybe I was a bit optimistic on the Crers chances. Appears I don't rate Brisbane at all.

Swaps Richmond with West Coast in my top eight.

 

[TheBeardAmigos]

Ladder

1. GWS
2. Sydney
3. Hawthorn
4. Melbourne
5. St Kilda
6. West Coast
7. Geelong
8. Port Adelaide

9. Adelaide
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Richmond
12. Collingwood
13. Essendon
14. North Melbourne
15. Fremantle
16. Gold Coast
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane

2017 Brownlow Medalist: Patrick Dangerfield - Smokey: Nick Riewoldt
2017 Coleman Medalist: Josh Kennedy - Smokey: Tim Membrey
2017 Grand Finalists/Premiers: GWS v Sydney - Draw/Sydney win on replay with Buddy slotting one from 65m out on the siren
2017 Norm Smith: Josh P Kennedy (30+ and 2 goals) will break record for most tackles in a GF also
PAFC AA Squad Members: Wines, Ryder, Hombsch, Gray
PAFC BF: Jackson Trengove
PAFC Most Improved: Dan Houston

 

[El Zorro]

View attachment 353748

View attachment 353750

Please not. I'd have a ****ing heart attack.

 

[Janey]

Please not. I'd have a ******* heart attack.

So would I. But just imagine the months of sheer euphoria afterwards.

 

[Rexie J]

AFL House really hates that we are making inroads into China, don't they?

Seriously, Gil should go back to farming the rock outcrops on his much diminished 'estate' near Mt Pleasant.

 

[Lagooner]

Please not. I'd have a ******* heart attack.

Don't worry Zorro, we'll play Richmond in a GF before the crows i.e. not in your lifetime.

 

[Scholz Supremacy]

I don't want a Showdown Grand Final. Sure, it'd genuinely be the greatest thing ever if we won, but the worst ever if we lost. Is it worth the risk?

My heart couldn't handle that week-long stress either.

 

[TimmyD11]

Don't worry Zorro, we'll play Richmond in a GF before the crows i.e. not in your lifetime.

Ha. This is funny to read back!