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AFL 2018 - AFL Round 14
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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capperscap
Team Captain
- Feb 15, 2018
- 403
- 244
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Banned
- #54
Wow line into 19.5 now for the eagles.
Crazy
Crazy
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I took the over on b365 at 158.5 but be careful the Don's aren't that run n gun attacking team at the moment... Very happy with my 21-1 now with lycett on field..cripps at 14-1 most goals tabtouch not bad hes $6-8 most places.. lycett n him at 15 (tab) n 14-1 seem the value to me In very open market
Sabbathen
Club Legend
- Aug 17, 2016
- 1,009
- 1,022
- AFL Club
- West Coast
So you see a 78 point flogging after a bye but covering the line by 8.5 points as supporting your theory Essendon are a good "after the bye" team? Come on man... i dont need another warning from the mods.
This was the VFL Ess team that year and the response was because of ILP which insinuates that they were terrible when in fact they're performance correlated with the line set. I ignore all stats from Ess that year given it was an outlier.
I don't have a theory that Ess are a good "after the bye" team, but I do look at recent results to see if these provide an indicator of performance. I'm assuming you do the same.
I'm going to have a look at a potential theory that teams after the bye are more likely to get jumped early though.
West Coast -20.5 (Pointsbet $1.95)
Think the loss of Kennedy has been a slight overreaction from the books.
Think the loss of Kennedy has been a slight overreaction from the books.
Cancel that^
capperscap
Team Captain
- Feb 15, 2018
- 403
- 244
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Banned
- #61
Huge chunk of money came late for the dons
i wonder if something was up in the eagles camp
i wonder if something was up in the eagles camp
- Dec 2, 2017
- 29,313
- 17,884
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Oh dear
Eagles look rancid.
Icing on the cake, no goals from the 11th minute in the 2nd
. Good night
Yeh gunna need a free flowing 3rd to bring over back in play
- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,362
- 21,653
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
anyone see Lycett's effort on the goal line... boy oh boy. sums up the night for west coast. Forward structure looks non-existent without Kennedy & Darling.
- Banned
- #67
You can have Locket Dunstall and Ablett up forward, doesn't matter when your midfield don't compete.
Turn up and win attitude from WC last night.
Sabbathen
Club Legend
- Aug 17, 2016
- 1,009
- 1,022
- AFL Club
- West Coast
This is my point though, it’s such a small sample size. Each team has 1 bye a year, how many years back would you go to have any sort of confidence that the result is not just variance or a host of other factors? By your own admission you discount Essendon results from 2 years ago due to their list. Going back 2 years and even further, the vast majority of teams will have very different playing lists, coaching staff, game styles etc. WA has a brand new stadium this year for example. I really think it’s fools gold trying to find trends in results from 12+ months ago. The other thing you have to understand is all that sort of data is readily available in the public domain. If it really did hold any weight it will already be factored into the current odds you are getting.
Here is a link for a past study on the effect of longer vs shorter days break between games for teams over a 3 year period. http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-s...-rest-matter-in-the-home-and-away-season.html
TLDR; it basically finds there is no significant advantage/disadvantage. It doesn’t go into bye rounds but I think you can apply the same theories.
- Apr 6, 2016
- 633
- 940
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Sportsbet - Tom Mitchell showing $1.40 for 35+ disposals in the Pick Your Own Disposal market, however, in the AFL Player Exotics market, over 34.5, he's at $1.87! He clocked up 45 disposals against St. Kilda at the Tassie Stadium in April. I think we all agree that Hawthorn should win this game pretty comfortably, so Mitchell should run rampant and feed the forward line all afternoon. Any player to kick 5+ goals isn't a bad bet either. Weather looks okay, but it'll still be brisk. The GC players will be frozen...LOL!
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Off the top of my head i think the bye results over the last 7 years was about a 40% strike rate head to head and about 48% at the line with the last 4 years actually showing a much better ROI after the bye. There was a pretty big swing in the results from 2011-13 compared to 2014-17
Nice one. $1.90 at Ladbrokes in the Player Markets > To Have 35 Disposals market.
33.5 b365 guys!!
