AFL 2018 - AFL Round 14

[ash_1050]

Getting on the Cox train
$5 Cox 6 or more goals/Collingwood win @ 171.00
$5 Cox 4 or more goals/Collingwood win @ 12.50
$5 Cox 3 or more goals/Collingwood win @ 4.75
$5 Cox 3 or more goals/Carlton 1-39 @ 171.00
$5 Cox 5 or more goals/Carlton 1-39 @ 2501.00

 

[SterlingArcher]

Lol suddenly Mason Cox is some unstoppable Force coz he tore up a Dees team not adjusting to missing their best defender 1st game

Well I think that's the point - he`s at nice odds to tear up a defence much worse than Melbourne minus Lever? Not an unstoppable force, just likely to take advantage of battlers in Rowe and Jones.

 

[mookieb]

Last year gambling companies spent over $256million on advertising in Australia targeting people like you. But i’m sure an investment like that along with the wages of teams of quants, analysts and complex models probably overlooked it being windy in Hobart. Good luck to you though.

Thanks for your well wishes, but I think I should be alright.

I'm not sure gambling companies should be targeting "people like me" given I have been gambling and speculating on shares, poker and sports betting full time since poker first started at Crown, but I understand you're never too good to not appreciate being lectured to by posters on Bigfooty that refuse to post their bets.

Just a heads up to the team of quants, analysts and the complex mathematical modelling for the GC game where they took the line and divided it by 4 to come up with the 4th qtr line. Given GC haven't kicked a goal in the last 3 4th quarters I would have thought the line might have been different but their the experts right?

 

[capperscap]

Sportsbet same game multi "Stake Error: Some of your bets exceed the max bet size. Please review, then press bet and Confirm."
anyone know the rules?

 

[Chism]

Gee what have i started now with my $5!

Everyone on the Mason train today!!

 

[capperscap]

Gee what have i started now with my $5!

Everyone on the Mason train today!!

If Cox kicks 6+ i will come over there and worship your cox to express my gratitude

 

[Sausage Legs]

Good luck to everyone on the cox train but I'll be giving it a miss. Take away his last game and he has kicked 6 goals in 10 games. And there have been some big wins in them. Guess thats why he's decent odds tho.

 

[GROTTO]

Gee what have i started now with my $5!

Everyone on the Mason train today!!

Do you have odds for Mason to not kick a goal today?

 

[NonPhixion]

Taylor Adams o24.5 - SB 1.87
Sidebottom o30.5 - pointsbet 1.98

Also like Jack Silvagni ATGS - 2.40 SB. He is named FP and I rekon he plays the majority of this game in that position, Carlton have brought in Kennedy who I think takes his position in the middle.

adding Treloar o30.5 $2 -SB
He was at 32.5 yesterday... not sure why it came down so much, maybe because he is starting on the bench. but this has zero effect imo.

 

[Robo87]

Good luck to everyone on the cox train but I'll be giving it a miss. Take away his last game and he has kicked 6 goals in 10 games. And there have been some big wins in them. Guess thats why he's decent odds tho.

yea been trying to find any value with WH Elliot actually. He's leading GS for the pies but- WHE 3g+ just went in from 3.40 to 2.33 on b365 (so not much value.)
edit: adding 1u cox 2g+ @1.90 WH

 

[Chism]

Do you have odds for Mason to not kick a goal today?

I just wanna get paid for watching a bloke kick a bag against us which is a common thing nowadays.

Josh Thomas also very likely and he had a day out earlier in the season against us.

 

[FadingTheFave]

1u @ 7.00 - Josh Thomas 3g/Collingwood 40+

Earlier this year Thomas kicked 5 against Carlton while he has kicked 3.1, 2.2, 2.0 in his last three.

 

[YouBeauty]

Carlton 2.00 +46.5 is a great bet. Can see Carlton being very competitive today.

 

[Sabbathen]

Thanks for your well wishes, but I think I should be alright.

I'm not sure gambling companies should be targeting "people like me" given I have been gambling and speculating on shares, poker and sports betting full time since poker first started at Crown, but I understand you're never too good to not appreciate being lectured to by posters on Bigfooty that refuse to post their bets.

Just a heads up to the team of quants, analysts and the complex mathematical modelling for the GC game where they took the line and divided it by 4 to come up with the 4th qtr line. Given GC haven't kicked a goal in the last 3 4th quarters I would have thought the line might have been different but their the experts right?

Genuinely curious how a “full time sports bettor” still has usable accounts with the corporate bookmakers you often quote? You would have to be the first one.

 

[capperscap]

cox is ****ing shit **** my ass

 

[NonPhixion]

cox is ******* shit **** my ass

not the game for him tbh. Carlton are flooding back hard in numbers, making it very difficult for him to get those contested marks I50

 

[SM]

Pies - 47.5 live at $2.75.

 

[NonPhixion]

taken Collingwood o91.5
We have missed some chances so far and I feel the game about to open up in the 2nd half, Carlton are 1 man down and Kruezer looks to be pretty sore aswell.

 

[capperscap]

cmon cox at least kick 3

 

[mookieb]

Genuinely curious how a “full time sports bettor” still has usable accounts with the corporate bookmakers you often quote? You would have to be the first one.

Being able to read is an underrated skill.

I've never said I was a "full time sports bettor" neither do I have the aspirations. I work across different gambling and speculative sectors. I'm far newer to sports betting but as many on here are limited on some accounts not on others and have had to recruit some accounts.

You'd be a full time sports bettor right?

 

[Sabbathen]

I have been gambling and speculating on shares, poker and sports betting full time since poker first started at Crown

 

[mookieb]

I started poker full time when it was launched at Crown and then branched into shares then into sports betting.

Doesn't compare to you i'd expect. When did you go pro?

 

[Sabbathen]

I started poker full time when it was launched at Crown and then branched into shares then into sports betting.

Doesn't compare to you i'd expect. When did you go pro?

I'm no professional, just an average guy on my own journey, definitely don't go around calling myself the footy whisperer or anything like that... Have a pretty big interest in the industry, read as much as I can from respected authors and listen to the ex bookmakers, pro gamblers and semi pro's whenever they are willing to talk openly. Try to share here some of the things I learn and hope it encourages some interesting discussions(rarely works). There are numerous ways to make some money from the gambling industry if you put in a bit of work so I explore those other avenues and it makes me a nice little side income. Have been through the phase of spending hours and hours, days and days pouring over spread sheets trying to find patterns and trends, thinking you are onto something before eventually being over taken by variance and bookmakers margins. Profiting long term on sports betting requires a great deal of luck, the ability to find something no one else is exploiting and doing all the basic things right.