AFL 2018 Brownlow Medal

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sampeck4 said:
Hi guys, just been going through some data to compare for leader after round 5 and 6 using afl website, before you bet and january guy. Results as follows. added round 6 as it is a market at crownbet. hope this can be useful to some to compare

Afl website rounds 5 and then 6:
Cripps (6) and (9)
fyfe (9) and (9)
titch (9) and (10)
martin (10) and (10)
coniglio (8) and (8)
sidebottom (7) and (7)

Before you bet round 5 then 6
Cripps 3,0,0,0,3,2.5 (6) and (8-9)
fyfe 0,3,3,0,3,0 (9) and (9)
titch 3,3,2,0,0,2 (8) and (10)
martin 1,2.5,0,3,0,1 (6-7) and (7-8)
cogs 3,3,1,0.5,1,0 (8-9)
sidebottom 0,0,3,2.5,2,0 (7.5) and (7.5)

January guy rnd 5 then 6
cripps 3,0,0,0,3,2 (6) and (8)
fyfe 0,3,3,0,3,0 (9) and (9)
titch 3,3,3,0,0,2 (9) and (11)
martin 2,2,0,2,1,3 (7) and (10)
cogs 2,3,2,0,1,0 (8) and (8)
sidebottom 0,0,3,3,2,0 (8) and (8)
Click to expand...

Kingpunters.com.au after 5 rounds:
Sidebottom, Laird, Fyfe (9)
Mitchell, Martin (8)
Gaff, Cognilio (7)
Macrae, Heppell, Hogan (6)
Cripps (4)

Averaging the above, after 5 rounds:
AFL, BYB, TJM, KP (Avg) (Median)
Fyfe: 9,9,9,9 (9) (9)
Mitchell: 9,8,9,8 (8.5) (8.5)
Cognilio: 8,8.5,8,7 (7.88) (8)
Sidebottom: 7,7.5,8,9 (7.88) (7.75)
Martin: 10,6.5,7,8 (7.88) (7.5)
Cripps: 6,6,6,4 (5.5) (6)

Looks like a nice tight race there but consensus is Fyfe to lead after 5, and without really looking at the numbers too much, it is Mitchell and Martin after 6. Better check in with the dead heat rules.
 
sampeck4 said:
can someone tell me if you bet on a leader by round 5 and its a tie do you get paid out half what you would if they won straight?
Click to expand...

Doesn't it depend on the number of players tieing? I think it does. And it would usually be stake returned plus winnings/number of players.
 

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Curious about Sydney most votes on Crown: Kennedy ($1.60) v Heeney ($3.25) v Franklin ($7.50). Some tallies aren't giving Franklin the time of day, and giving Kennedy plenty. I'm not giving Heeney too many.

The sample size is small, but last year if a player kicked:
7+ goals - 3 votes (15 votes from 5 games)
6 goals - 2.32 votes (51 votes from 22 games)
5 goals - 1.82 votes (62 votes from 34 games)
4 goals - 0.75 votes (77 votes from 103 games)

But if you're name was Franklin, it looked like this:
7+ goals - 3 votes (6 votes from 2 games)
5 goals - 2 votes (2 votes from 1 game)
4 goals - 2.17 votes (13 votes from 6 games)

So this year Franklin has 1 x 8 goals (3 votes), 1 x 6 goals (probably 3 votes), 4 x 4 goals (9 votes: this is debatable) for a total of around 15 votes. There are a couple of strange games where his numbers are more like midfielders (round 3: 2 goals - the last two Swans goals to seal the game, 22 disposals and round 9: 3 goals, 19 disposals and listed as one of the best in the match report) where he might snag a vote or two. In that round 3 game, 28 disposals was high and the round 9 game 3 goals was highest but Josh Kennedy also got 3 goals, 20 touches. I can make a case to put him on 17 votes

He polled 22 votes last year and looks like he has the chance to go 20+ again.

With three games to go, it sort of comes down to Franklin firing once or twice for Sydney to make the finals - against Melbourne this weekend might be his best bet who seem short on defenders, but it will also take a classy midfield to get through the Melbourne midfield so Kennedy, Parker and Heeney will need to do well. It will be harder for Franklin against GWS and Hawthorn.

Kennedy looks a little slower this year and averages 25.3 touches and 0.4 goals against his 2017 output of 28.6 touches and 0.7 goals (23 votes) and 2016 output of 31.2 touches and 0.8 goals (14 votes). I think it is hard to make a case for more than 20 votes unless his final three rounds are outstanding and even then he may not get past Buddy if he gets one bag of at 4 or more goals.

Against Melbourne, Hawthorn and GWS last year, he kicked 17 goals (3.4 average) and polled 7 votes (1.4 average).
 
Analysis Paralysis said:
Curious about Sydney most votes on Crown: Kennedy ($1.60) v Heeney ($3.25) v Franklin ($7.50). Some tallies aren't giving Franklin the time of day, and giving Kennedy plenty. I'm not giving Heeney too many.

The sample size is small, but last year if a player kicked:
7+ goals - 3 votes (15 votes from 5 games)
6 goals - 2.32 votes (51 votes from 22 games)
5 goals - 1.82 votes (62 votes from 34 games)
4 goals - 0.75 votes (77 votes from 103 games)

But if you're name was Franklin, it looked like this:
7+ goals - 3 votes (6 votes from 2 games)
5 goals - 2 votes (2 votes from 1 game)
4 goals - 2.17 votes (13 votes from 6 games)

So this year Franklin has 1 x 8 goals (3 votes), 1 x 6 goals (probably 3 votes), 4 x 4 goals (9 votes: this is debatable) for a total of around 15 votes. There are a couple of strange games where his numbers are more like midfielders (round 3: 2 goals - the last two Swans goals to seal the game, 22 disposals and round 9: 3 goals, 19 disposals and listed as one of the best in the match report) where he might snag a vote or two. In that round 3 game, 28 disposals was high and the round 9 game 3 goals was highest but Josh Kennedy also got 3 goals, 20 touches. I can make a case to put him on 17 votes

He polled 22 votes last year and looks like he has the chance to go 20+ again.

With three games to go, it sort of comes down to Franklin firing once or twice for Sydney to make the finals - against Melbourne this weekend might be his best bet who seem short on defenders, but it will also take a classy midfield to get through the Melbourne midfield so Kennedy, Parker and Heeney will need to do well. It will be harder for Franklin against GWS and Hawthorn.

Kennedy looks a little slower this year and averages 25.3 touches and 0.4 goals against his 2017 output of 28.6 touches and 0.7 goals (23 votes) and 2016 output of 31.2 touches and 0.8 goals (14 votes). I think it is hard to make a case for more than 20 votes unless his final three rounds are outstanding and even then he may not get past Buddy if he gets one bag of at 4 or more goals.

Against Melbourne, Hawthorn and GWS last year, he kicked 17 goals (3.4 average) and polled 7 votes (1.4 average).
Click to expand...
Pretty good value at those odds but I’d wait to see how he finishes the year off.
 
Clayton Oliver Most Melbourne Votes @ $2.75 TAB 2U

After the 3 last week have Clayton in front of Gawn now. Overs
 
Red Dog Styles said:
On sportsbet each way / place bets have all been changed from 1/4 odds to 1/5 odds. Can they do that for pre-bets before it was changed?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...

They can't do it for bets that have already been placed under different rules
 

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wow dusty drifted to $6 for the place at tab now! anyone think Gaff is value 2.50 eagles most votes. only 3 games left i feel Yeo still be a bit behind gaff and would have to poll a 2/3 in two of the matches
 
Last edited:
Ohh Ok said:
TAB are allowing multis now (well at least the odds are showing in my bet slip; haven’t placed anything yet).

Higgins into Dusty @ $2.10 seems alright..
Click to expand...

Can confirm multis are allowed. I think Pendlebury still represents great value at $6 for Collingwood most votes, they have Grundy installed as favourite but I think the ruckman's curse will follow suit here.
 
Red Dog Styles said:
Yes i would say Gaff easily, just my opinion, im also not concerned about remaining 3 games

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
yeh and the odds will surge above 3 if yeo does have a good game or two.. ill definately be adding up pies, eagles, adelaide, bulldogs.. i think macrae is at risk vs bont, laird at risk vs crouch, grundy at risk vs pendles and yeh think gaff is great value
 
demon_fanatic said:
yeh and the odds will surge above 3 if yeo does have a good game or two.. ill definately be adding up pies, eagles, adelaide, bulldogs.. i think macrae is at risk vs bont, laird at risk vs crouch, grundy at risk vs pendles and yeh think gaff is great value
Click to expand...
Going to tail all of the above + Dusty and Oliver

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Geeves Train said:
365 $2.50
Neds $2.75
Crown $3
Sportsbet $2.80

Oliver similar sort of thing. Tab also value for Higgins, Kennedy (SYD) and Selwood.
Click to expand...
yeh geelong is a lottery ill prob steer clear, yeh 1.45 higgins looks like a good anchor leg i am pretty sure he out polls cunnington. unsure on kennedy. wow yeh those odds at tab on pendles r pretty big! only worry is he's played more of a negating role on the oppositions best mid this season but still means he is in the umpires eyes
 
Can we make a consensus you have to state which agency when you share a good bet youve found? too hard to find them otherwise

I like Fyfe leader after round 10 on UBET $2.25

I have him on 15-17. Fyfe pretty much had the brownlow wrapped up at round 10.

challenger could be macrae or cripps but Im happy with Fyfe at those odds.
 
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