Preview 2018 Draft General Discussion

[GoGrows]

Hey guys, next years draft looks really exciting. I thought i'd start a thread to start talking about it rather than waiting for the regular Phantom Drafters to get their threads going.


Rankine, King twins, Walsh, Hill, Lukosius, Rozee, Caldwell, Bytel

looking like a special top 10 at this stage.

Although, this time last year, Worpel was being talked up as a phenom 17y.o wasn't he? Brander was a potential #1 pick etc etc. So things can clearly change if these 17y.o prospects do not progress as anticipated.

I dont think its too unreasonable to suggest each of those guys i listed above wouldve gone top 10-15 if they were eligible in this years draft as 17y.o.

I think the bottom teams are most certainly going to look at tanking in the last 4-6 rounds to try and secure the best pick they can get. Especially if someone like Lukosius, King or Ranking build upon this year in a significant fashion.

 

[briztoon]

Hey guys, next years draft looks really exciting. I thought i'd start a thread to start talking about it rather than waiting for the regular Phantom Drafters to get their threads going.


Rankine, King twins, Walsh, Hill, Lukosius, Rozee, Caldwell, Bytel

looking like a special top 10 at this stage.

Although, this time last year, Worpel was being talked up as a phenom 17y.o wasn't he? Brander was a potential #1 pick etc etc. So things can clearly change if these 17y.o prospects do not progress as anticipated.

I dont think its too unreasonable to suggest each of those guys i listed above wouldve gone top 10-15 if they were eligible in this years draft as 17y.o.

I think the bottom teams are most certainly going to look at tanking in the last 4-6 rounds to try and secure the best pick they can get. Especially if someone like Lukosius, King or Ranking build upon this year in a significant fashion.

I'm not sure about teams tanking.

I think clubs will look at the other clubs around them and try and gage what each clubs needs are. At this stage it looks like the top ten, and right through the first round to mid second round, teams could most certainly look at best talent available versus team needs.

If Brisbane ended up with pick 1 (again), would they seriously consider Jack Lukosius? Kid looks like a special talent and a tall forward combo of Hipwood and Lukosius would scare the bejeezus out of opposition teams for a decade plus. But tall forward is not really a team need. Would Brisbane consider a minor trade back if they ended up with pick one.

Maybe one way to contribute to this discussion could be for posters to list what they believe their team needs are.

Brisbane team needs:
1. Genuine future star young inside outside type mid. A few Lions fans are already talking up Sam Walsh.
2. Top quality half forward flank who can rotate on the wing and/or in the midfield. I've firmly been on the Rankine bandwagon for a good 8 months.
3. Top quality back pocket and/or a third tall. Both are future needs. Does there look like to one available in the early second round?

 

[Yoda_]

I think the bottom teams are most certainly going to look at tanking in the last 4-6 rounds to try and secure the best pick they can get.

I wouldn't be so sure. The 2018 looks like a bumper crop and these top dozen or so kids all looking like AFL prospects.

Tanking breeds poor culture as evidenced by Melbourne the last decade. Teams would want to win so they can set themselves up for a big year the following. Selections? positional changes? youth development? yeah, they all play significant roles but don't think teams will tank for a pick 1 or two picks higher.

 

[theGav56]

I'm not sure about teams tanking.

I think clubs will look at the other clubs around them and try and gage what each clubs needs are. At this stage it looks like the top ten, and right through the first round to mid second round, teams could most certainly look at best talent available versus team needs.

I can't really see it as being in many club's interests to actually tank. Brisbane a good example, where having a good year on the field regardless of win/loss/ladder position is a far better outcome than getting pick 1 rather than say pick 5.

It may be a little different for Fremantle and perhaps some other club's in a similar position. I think we are fairly loaded up in terms of our rebuild but still have a gaping hole alongside KPF, so there would be at least some speculation in many people's minds. Even so, that "tanking" is much more likely to come in the form of not playing Sandilands, MJ, Ballantyne etc and instead preferring development games into the youth (something Lyon seems to be a natural at), especially in the second half of the season.

Is it "tanking", or even trying to manipulate a draft outcome? I don't think so.

Not sure in terms of needs what Fremantle would go for. It looms as quite a different draft to the recent one where the top picks all had a bit of similarity about them. Much more diversity available. Pretty sure the club would like another Hill to add to our map, and O'Reilly should be ours. Like most clubs we have our New Gen becoming active and Carter will surely be joining us.

Somehow grab those three and most purple-people will be happy.

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Could be the best ever round 1 draft for lads from S.A.

Junior development has been crap under the SANFL with an under 18 team of mainly good/average players and little AFL X factor for the last 10 years.

 

[the big lebowski]

I'm not sure about teams tanking.

I think clubs will look at the other clubs around them and try and gage what each clubs needs are. At this stage it looks like the top ten, and right through the first round to mid second round, teams could most certainly look at best talent available versus team needs.

If Brisbane ended up with pick 1 (again), would they seriously consider Jack Lukosius? Kid looks like a special talent and a tall forward combo of Hipwood and Lukosius would scare the bejeezus out of opposition teams for a decade plus. But tall forward is not really a team need. Would Brisbane consider a minor trade back if they ended up with pick one.

Maybe one way to contribute to this discussion could be for posters to list what they believe their team needs are.

Brisbane team needs:
1. Genuine future star young inside outside type mid. A few Lions fans are already talking up Sam Walsh.
2. Top quality half forward flank who can rotate on the wing and/or in the midfield. I've firmly been on the Rankine bandwagon for a good 8 months.
3. Top quality back pocket and/or a third tall. Both are future needs. Does there look like to one available in the early second round?

Everyone seems to assume that North will finish bottom 2. If that were the case and we could pick any player type I still think we would go midfielder. Though if we don't get much from our young KPP in Wood, Durdin, Neilson, McKay and to a lesser degree Larkey we might go tall. But to me that would be a real disappointment as Durds, Neilson and McKay showed good signs in 2017.

So for me I'd be hoping for Rankine or Walsh at this early stage. In an ideal world we wild also snag Thomas and Scott after our second pick. I know that's probably wishful thinking but a man can dream.

Rankine
Pick 20
Thomas
Scott
Crocker

That would be a pretty lovely outcome

 

[Newatthis]

Hey guys, next years draft looks really exciting. I thought i'd start a thread to start talking about it rather than waiting for the regular Phantom Drafters to get their threads going.


Rankine, King twins, Walsh, Hill, Lukosius, Rozee, Caldwell, Bytel

looking like a special top 10 at this stage.

Although, this time last year, Worpel was being talked up as a phenom 17y.o wasn't he? Brander was a potential #1 pick etc etc. So things can clearly change if these 17y.o prospects do not progress as anticipated.

I dont think its too unreasonable to suggest each of those guys i listed above wouldve gone top 10-15 if they were eligible in this years draft as 17y.o.

I think the bottom teams are most certainly going to look at tanking in the last 4-6 rounds to try and secure the best pick they can get. Especially if someone like Lukosius, King or Ranking build upon this year in a significant fashion.

Add Taylor and Browning to that list.

 

[HedgeFund]

I'm not sure about teams tanking.

I think clubs will look at the other clubs around them and try and gage what each clubs needs are. At this stage it looks like the top ten, and right through the first round to mid second round, teams could most certainly look at best talent available versus team needs.

If Brisbane ended up with pick 1 (again), would they seriously consider Jack Lukosius? Kid looks like a special talent and a tall forward combo of Hipwood and Lukosius would scare the bejeezus out of opposition teams for a decade plus. But tall forward is not really a team need. Would Brisbane consider a minor trade back if they ended up with pick one.

Maybe one way to contribute to this discussion could be for posters to list what they believe their team needs are.

Brisbane team needs:
1. Genuine future star young inside outside type mid. A few Lions fans are already talking up Sam Walsh.
2. Top quality half forward flank who can rotate on the wing and/or in the midfield. I've firmly been on the Rankine bandwagon for a good 8 months.
3. Top quality back pocket and/or a third tall. Both are future needs. Does there look like to one available in the early second round?

Why not keep your first rounder, trade a more mature/fringe 22 KPF to a team in greater need, get another pick in return and use it (amongst other things) to net one of the above?

 

[aussierulesrules]

Looks like a potential corker of a draft.

From a needs perspective, from what I've seen, any of Rankine, Hill, or Walsh would be types that we could really do with.

Could really do with some speed and skill centre/forward (Hill/Rankine), or someone who plays inside and out in the midfield, who runs all day, racks them up and uses it really well (Walsh).

Alternatively, a Dow/LDU/Cerra/Brayshaw/Stephenson type, who due to the stronger top end, may be available closer to pick 10-12 next year.

 

[HedgeFund]

Looks like a potential corker of a draft.

From a needs perspective, from what I've seen, any of Rankine, Hill, or Walsh would be types that we could really do with.

Could really do with some speed and skill centre/forward (Hill/Rankine), or someone who plays inside and out in the midfield, who runs all day, racks them up and uses it really well (Walsh).

Alternatively, a Dow/LDU/Cerra/Brayshaw/Stephenson type, who due to the stronger top end, may be available closer to pick 10-12 next year.

I think you’d be wanting the latter - otherwise you’re asking the Saints to finish 14th or below just so you can get one of these kids in your list for 2019.

 

[GoGrows]

i think there are prob going to be 5-6 mids that will be better than any of this years mids.

And Lukosius is tracking along to be the best key position prospect potentially in the last 10-15 yrs.

I do think towards the end of the season, teams will tank if it means potentially the diff between getting the 1st or 4th pick etc. I think Lukosius is the one that they badly want. Rankine also looks incredible, but from a position scarcity point of view, having a key foward that youll be able to build your team around for the next 12yrs, priceless. and no, i dont believe losing a few extra games will breed poor culture.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I think you’d be wanting the latter - otherwise you’re asking the Saints to finish 14th or below just so you can get one of these kids in your list for 2019.

Very fair chance that that's right, although there's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet.

This time last year Fogarty and Brander were widely spoken of as being up to their eyeballs in the mix to go pick 1 and they eventually went 12/13, while LOB was widely tipped to go top 5 and he went at 10, etc.

Similar things happen most if not every year. So much can change in 12 months and teams can now also trade up. Perhaps even live on the night by this draft.

 

[briztoon]

Why not keep your first rounder, trade a more mature/fringe 22 KPF to a team in greater need, get another pick in return and use it (amongst other things) to net one of the above?

We’re not that deep at KPF, after delisting all our KPF depth players, and losing Schache in trade.

Really not sure what the club is going to do.

When Noble and Fagan first started, they spoke about going hard at the next three drafts (16, 17, 18), with as many top 25 picks as possible.

I’m not sure how the club intends to acquire extra, early draft picks next year. Possibly trade our 2019 first rounder for a 2018 first rounder.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Very fair chance that that's right, although there's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet.

This time last year Fogarty and Brander were widely spoken of as being up to their eyeballs in the mix to go pick 1 and they eventually went 12/13, while LOB was widely tipped to go top 5 and he went at 10, etc.

Similar things happen most if not every year. So much can change in 12 months and teams can now also trade up.

IIRC Aish was touted as a possible pick 1. Same thing with Rich and both went pick 7 and Aish looks like being a complete bust

 

[THE_GUN]

I still remember the Rich & Darling converstaions and how great they were.
#29 & #30 ended up being the best players in the draft that included Nicnat/Watts/Hurley/Yarran/Hill etc

 

[demondavey]

Any club that tanks is sure to go backwards. I've seen it first hand at Melbourne.

 

[GoGrows]

Any club that tanks is sure to go backwards. I've seen it first hand at Melbourne.

rubbish.

you went backwards because you drafted the wrong guys, you got unlucky with Scully being out of contract when the Giants had millions to offer, and Trengove had his career ended with injuries.

 

[demondavey]

IIRC Aish was touted as a possible pick 1. Same thing with Rich and both went pick 7 and Aish looks like being a complete bust

Both high picks, both went to a struggling club. Not surprised they've not lived up to hype. I've seen close to a dozen Melbourne players fall into that category. It's a shame the clubs didn't have that support network well established.

 

[demondavey]

rubbish.

you went backwards because you drafted the wrong guys, you got unlucky with Scully being out of contract when the Giants had millions to offer, and Trengove had his career ended with injuries.

You're kidding right? We went backwards because we had a culture where we were prepared to lose to gain 'draft picks'. The club itself was ridden with the legacy of Chris Connolly and Cameron Scwab. Both haven't got a glowing resume from their AFL appointments.

Brock McLean is on record saying he left due to the club culture. Every kid we picked can't have been a dud. We also had no leaders, we traded out what leadership we had because we thought the likes of Colin Sylvia could lead the charge.

I've yet to see Geelong, Hawthorn or Sydney tank and succeed. Or the WB for that matter. Richmond won a flag with what would be deemed 'mediocre' players before 2017. Hawthorn and Geelong had some great picks from the 99 and 01 drafts, but they put them in a proper environment.

It's no surprise our club is starting to look up now that we've had a decent coach in Roos and hopefully now Goodwin.

If you think our troubles weren't due to tanking then you're sadly mistaken.

 

[demondavey]

rubbish.

you went backwards because you drafted the wrong guys, you got unlucky with Scully being out of contract when the Giants had millions to offer, and Trengove had his career ended with injuries.

I am not sure how you think it works, but if you put a lot of high picks into a team where there are no leaders or established senior footballers, you'll end up with kids that don't develop. The sad thing is that our only real leaders between 06-13 where probably Nathan Jones and James McDonald. Lynden Dunn was serviceable, in fact a very honest player, and after that Brad Green was captain. Not exactly awe inspiring stuff.

 

[THE_GUN]

Never forget that Melbourne v Richmond game

Richmond were doing everything to win and Melbourne were doing just about everything to lose with players being played is silly positions
Melbourne supporters so happy every time Richmond kicked a goal

What a day that was, Im glad Richmond did everything they could to win and Jordan McMahon kicked that goal that gave us the 3rd selection in the Draft being Dustin Martin

Fast Foward 2017 - Richmond premiers
Culture means alot

 

[demondavey]

Never forget that Melbourne v Richmond game

Richmond were doing everything to win and Melbourne were doing just about everything to lose with players being played is silly positions
Melbourne supporters so happy every time Richmond kicked a goal

What a day that was, Im glad Richmond did everything they could to win and Jordan McMahon kicked that goal that gave us the 3rd selection in the Draft being Dustin Martin

Fast Foward 2017 - Richmond premiers
Culture means alot

I can't tell you how often I've been at games at the end of the season and I've overheard Melbourne supporters saying 'If we finish X on the ladder we get pick Y'

It's an absolute disgrace. The draft should be a lottery to totally rule this out.

 

[THE_GUN]

I can't tell you how often I've been at games at the end of the season and I've overheard Melbourne supporters saying 'If we finish X on the ladder we get pick Y'

It's an absolute disgrace. The draft should be a lottery to totally rule this out.

I have always wanted my team to win the games, Draft in itself is a lottery and the best ranked players seldon become the best in their draft year
Martin,Dangerfield,Franklin,Fyfe,Selwood,Kennedy etc etc

Recruiting,Development,Culture,Leadership,Coaching all form the team and players to become who and what they are, If Lance franklin was drafted to Richmond in 2015 there is no guarantee he would have been the player he is today and might have been a flop - Who knows

Teams should always strive to win and tanking for picks is just crazy

 

[bungalow_bill]

I can't tell you how often I've been at games at the end of the season and I've overheard Melbourne supporters saying 'If we finish X on the ladder we get pick Y'

It's an absolute disgrace. The draft should be a lottery to totally rule this out.

Recall a couple of years back the Lions won the final game V Dogs? and the media were saying we blew it! The media! It being the number 1 pick. Winning culture is vital to future success

 

[HereIam86]

Recall a couple of years back the Lions won the final game V Dogs? and the media were saying we blew it! The media! It being the number 1 pick. Winning culture is vital to future success

Yeah that was back in 2015 I think it was Jay Clark who said the Lions should have lost the game to get pick 1.