Preview 2018 Draft General Discussion

[HedgeFund]

12 months ago fogarty was going pick one, atleast top 5 and was selected 12th by an SA club. Anything can happen in the next 11 months. Who knows where every team will finish. Either way crows CURRENTLY have 2 firsts and a great 2nd rounder in a so called super draft. Possibly another if sloane leaves.

Almost spot on, but slightly edited for accuracy - Crows still have the trade period in October to play with

 

[GoGrows]

Yeah - Hayes did make the AA team as a bottom ager, and also top ager. Worpel made AA too. Both ultimately slipped to the 3rd Round in the draft.

No-one was blowing their load over Hayes the way some on BF are about Rankine, Lukosius, et al.

No idea if the AFL recruiters are so bullish however......

its not THAT rare for 17y.o to make the AA side. And as you said, noone was blowing their load over Hayes or Worpel. Both were highly productive but do not contain the skill-set that Lukosius/Rankine have.

 

[GoGrows]

12 months ago fogarty was going pick one, atleast top 5 and was selected 12th by an SA club. Anything can happen in the next 11 months.

yes. injuries may cause the elite talents to drop. that is obviously true.

 

[HARKER]

12 months ago fogarty was going pick one, atleast top 5 and was selected 12th by an SA club. Anything can happen in the next 11 months. Who knows where every team will finish. Either way crows will have 2 firsts and a great 2nd rounder in a so called super draft. Possibly another if sloane leaves.

Brander also. Not quite the way Boyd was being talked up before he was drafted, but the 'potential #1 pick' sat along his name regularly.

 

[GoGrows]

Brander also. Not quite the way Boyd was being talked up before he was drafted, but the 'potential #1 pick' sat along his name regularly.

again, noone was talking about Brander the way people are talking about Lukosius. None.

this draft contained no standout a yr out, didnt have a standout at any point during the year. hence several players being talked about as a potential #1.

 

[THE_GUN]

So which players will be available at #18 ?

Like to keep an eye on this kid

 

[HARKER]

again, noone was talking about Brander the way people are talking about Lukosius. None.

this draft contained no standout a yr out, didnt have a standout at any point during the year. hence several players being talked about as a potential #1.

My point was that players that may widely be regarded as being likely or even potential #1's, don't necessarily pan out to be.

Weitering though was largely seen to be the best player of his draft, a long way out.
Will he be better though, than Oliver, Curnow, Mills, Burton, Hipwood, Hopper etc? Too early to say, but plenty have produced more than he has to date.

 

[THE_GUN]

My point was that players that may widely be regarded as being likely or even potential #1's, don't necessarily pan out to be.

Weitering though was largely seen to be the best player of his draft, a long way out.
Will he be better though, than Oliver, Curnow, Mills, Burton, Hipwood, Hopper etc? Too early to say, but plenty have produced more than he has to date.

I think all of the players you named will be extremely good players but at the time Weitering was the undoubtedly the #1 pick and Carlton selected best available with their selection

 

[Leftyitis]

Has any one worked out which teams have father son prospects which may affect the draft ?

isn't this the year that Geelong has at least 3 father son prospects (Oscar Brownless and co) that will be in the draft ? and Essendon has Fletchers son ?

I'm keeping an eye on H Hately and J Caldwell. Think F&S's worth mentioning are Blakely, Scott and Thomas (catters or norf). Craig Kellys kid to pies (sorry crow fans). Also talk of a Crow F&S, whos name escapes me. Is it Edwards? Anyway, young kid is better than brother who has already been drafted.

Agggg, it's going to annoy me until I remember the name. There goes a relaxing night

Is Ian Hill related to the ones running around in the west?

 

[aussierulesrules]

Cousin of Brad and Stephen according to the commentary team at the champs last year.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

I'm keeping an eye on H Hately and J Caldwell. Think F&S's worth mentioning are Blakely, Scott and Thomas (catters or norf). Craig Kellys kid to pies (sorry crow fans). Also talk of a Crow F&S, whos name escapes me. Is it Edwards? Anyway, young kid is better than brother who has already been drafted.

Agggg, it's going to annoy me until I remember the name. There goes a relaxing night

If you're thinking of Jackson's brother, it's Luke who's not eligible until 2020.
Or, it could be Zac Hart, son of Ben who I think is right for this year.

And the Hately you mentioned, his name is Jackson.

 

[vozzon]

What do you class as premium? I would hand over a first round pick for any of Scully, Swallow, Patton (even number one for him) and Whitfield. Boyd and McCartin would still probably command one by virtue of their position even if impact not there yet, neither have set the world on fire but I would love to have either on our list.

Agree with those players. All proven they are up to AFL standard and all play a key role in there respective teams. So many times we see early picks barely make it, but our expectations are so much more.

 

[vozzon]

My point was that players that may widely be regarded as being likely or even potential #1's, don't necessarily pan out to be.

Weitering though was largely seen to be the best player of his draft, a long way out.
Will he be better though, than Oliver, Curnow, Mills, Burton, Hipwood, Hopper etc? Too early to say, but plenty have produced more than he has to date.

No doubt others might be better but Burton and Heeney were very highly rated all year before there draft but had knocks being a bad injury and one being an academy player. Weitering was more of a safe pick and being a key position player also helped.

 

[HedgeFund]

Agree with those players. All proven they are up to AFL standard and all play a key role in there respective teams. So many times we see early picks barely make it, but our expectations are so much more.

Agree. Rough numbers would suggest:

18 teams x 15 regular senior players = 270 MINIMUM of AFL standard (probably more like 350-400 to be honest)

Extrapolating out to the 8 year free agent milestone (when probably 80% of players have left the system and 20% remain) you would expect at least 35 players taken in each draft to “make it to AFL standard”. Honestly I’d probably be comfortable saying 50.

Some do and stay there beyond age 26, others aren’t able to keep up with the ever increasing intensity and skill required.

I reckon there’s a good number of rookies that graduate to senior lists and “do it the hard way”, and stay longer as AFL players than many first - third rounders.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

I can't tell you how often I've been at games at the end of the season and I've overheard Melbourne supporters saying 'If we finish X on the ladder we get pick Y'

It's an absolute disgrace. The draft should be a lottery to totally rule this out.

Suggested years ago(16 teams back then)16 clubs divided into blocks of 4.Blocks never alter.Each block slides down the draft order each year.The only thing that alters is the sides within the block.
In other words your side will get dibs at a top 4 pick every 5yrs no matter where you finish that year.Of coarse the downside is a bottom club could end up with pick 18.
Gets rid of the tanking.

 

[demondavey]

Suggested years ago(16 teams back then)16 clubs divided into blocks of 4.Blocks never alter.Each block slides down the draft order each year.The only thing that alters is the sides within the block.
In other words your side will get dibs at a top 4 pick every 5yrs no matter where you finish that year.Of coarse the downside is a bottom club could end up with pick 18.
Gets rid of the tanking.

So how would it work with 16 clubs? Give me an example.

 

[HARKER]

I can't tell you how often I've been at games at the end of the season and I've overheard Melbourne supporters saying 'If we finish X on the ladder we get pick Y'

It's an absolute disgrace. The draft should be a lottery to totally rule this out.

So what?

That's just fans trying to make themselves feel good, in a bad situation.

If the Clubs were doing that, it would be a different thing. Those days are all but gone

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

So how would it work with 16 clubs? Give me an example.

Block 1:
Crows(4)
Lions(2)
Carl(1)
Coll(3)

Block 2:
Ess(6)
Freo(5)
Cats(8)
Haw(7)

Block 3:
Melb(9)
Nth(10)
Port(11)
Rich.(12)

Block 4
Stk(16)
Syd(13)
Dogs(15)
Eagles.(14)

Now the AFL want the draft live.Why not have it live and each block get a number 1-4 etc(). A live lotto.Sides then can trade with clubs knowing beforehand roughly who,s got what.
Going on this year Crows finish 2nd and get the bonus of having a top 4 pick.In essence this system not only gets rid of tanking but rewards performers as well.Might be harsh for the likes in block 4 but their golden eggs will be the following year when they go to the top 4 block.

This only applies to rnd 1 of the draft.
Beyond rnd 1 it reverts back to the ladder positions.

 

[demondavey]

Block 1:
Crows(4)
Lions(2)
Carl(1)
Coll(3)

Block 2:
Ess(6)
Freo(5)
Cats(8)
Haw(7)

Block 3:
Melb(9)
Nth(10)
Port(11)
Rich.(12)

Block 4
Stk(16)
Syd(13)
Dogs(15)
Eagles.(14)

Now the AFL want the draft live.Why not have it live and each block get a number 1-4 etc(). A live lotto.Sides then can trade with clubs knowing beforehand roughly who,s got what.
Going on this year Crows finish 2nd and get the bonus of having a top 4 pick.In essence this system not only gets rid of tanking but rewards performers as well.Might be harsh for the likes in block 4 but their golden eggs will be the following year when they go to the top 4 block.

This only applies to rnd 1 of the draft.
Beyond rnd 1 it reverts back to the ladder positions.

So block 1 gets picks 1-4 in a raffle?

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Agree. Rough numbers would suggest:

18 teams x 15 regular senior players = 270 MINIMUM of AFL standard (probably more like 350-400 to be honest)

Extrapolating out to the 8 year free agent milestone (when probably 80% of players have left the system and 20% remain) you would expect at least 35 players taken in each draft to “make it to AFL standard”. Honestly I’d probably be comfortable saying 50.

Some do and stay there beyond age 26, others aren’t able to keep up with the ever increasing intensity and skill required.

I reckon there’s a good number of rookies that graduate to senior lists and “do it the hard way”, and stay longer as AFL players than many first - third rounders.

I can't speak to specific drafts, but on a per-year basis the first big cull comes by 23, leaving 60-odd players per year of age from 23 to 25, though with a fair proportion of VFL types padding that out, and from 26 on it drops precipitously.

 

[demondavey]

So what?

That's just fans trying to make themselves feel good, in a bad situation.

If the Clubs were doing that, it would be a different thing. Those days are all but gone

Well it should be a lottery anyway. To eliminate tanking like the tiger poster said. Tiger of old I think it is.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

So block 1 gets picks 1-4 in a raffle?

All blocks in a raffle but within their block only.
Block 2:
Will have dice # 5-8
Block 3:
9-12
Block 4:
13-16

 

[HARKER]

Well it should be a lottery anyway. To eliminate tanking like the tiger poster said. Tiger of old I think it is.

It may just go down that path, but I'm no so sure it's necessary any more.
Who knows though; The thirst for Lukocius (or another likely marquee player) may though find a team starting to 'rest' players again.

You may be right. The last 5 may go into a lottery for picks 1-5, the next group of 5 go into 6-10 and then it just falls as per finish.
Hang on.......of course you're right. The AFL will have themselves another day of getting onto front pages of papers and websites.
What was I thinking?

 

[Darkyprotector]

It may just go down that path, but I'm no so sure it's necessary any more.
Who knows though; The thirst for Lukocius (or another likely marquee player) may though find a team starting to 'rest' players again.

You may be right. The last 5 may go into a lottery for picks 1-5, the next group of 5 go into 6-10 and then it just falls as per finish.
Hang on.......of course you're right. The AFL will have themselves another day of getting onto front pages of papers and websites.
What was I thinking?

Pretty good for the suns that compo pick for lynch

 

[demondavey]

All blocks in a raffle but within their block only.
Block 2:
Will have dice # 5-8
Block 3:
9-12
Block 4:
13-16

Yeah nice, and blocks just get shifted each year? So for example.

Year 1.

Block 1 is:
Adelaide
Brisbane
Carlton
Collingwood
Essendon
Fremantle
Dice # 1-6

Block 2:
Geelong
Gold Coast
GWS
Hawthorn
Melbourne
North Melbourne
Dice # 7-12

Block 3
Richmond
Port Adelaide
St Kilda
Sydney
West Coast
WB
Dice # 13-18

Then year 2.

Block 1 goes to dice# 7-12
Block 2 goes to dice # 13-18
Block 3 goes to dice# 1-6

Am I right?

Perhaps the year that it actually starts they might use the actual bottom 6 as block 1 and Work from there?