Preview 2018 Draft General Discussion

[eDPS]

Ratings that we see prior to the season starting will always be TAC centric and that is purely because us nuffies can get footage of them playing TAC and the champs. SA and WA boys all we get is the champs footage.
SANFL and WAFL need to increase the online presence of there draft prospects as at the moment they fail to market these kids as well as they could.

SANFL are slightly better they always have footage of trial games and the Grand Finals

 

[HedgeFund]

Ratings that we see prior to the season starting will always be TAC centric and that is purely because us nuffies can get footage of them playing TAC and the champs.

It’s one factor perhaps, and a good way to address that could/should be a couple of u17 WA v SA matches throughout the year to showcase those states a bit more. Maybe as curtainraisers to a Freo/WC v Port/Adel game at Adelaide Oval or Optus Stadium? Run it on Foxtel instead of a “last time they met” game from 199...who gives a toss and then we’d have a better look at them.

Yep - I acknowledge there’s Futures games played between WA/SA/VM/VC in school holidays too, but they’re never televised.

 

[missionpossible]

SANFL are slightly better they always have footage of trial games and the Grand Finals

To be fair they did do it a bit better last year. Also good to see that they changed the jumpers this year for the trial which made it easier to pick out the numbers.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

...does that lack of media coverage actually impact on talent development and draft outcomes?

 

[HedgeFund]

...does that lack of media coverage actually impact on talent development and draft outcomes?

I read it as pertaining to those on here rating TAC players more strongly at this stage, simply because there’s more footage available for us to watch of them if they play TAC games in their bottom age year.

Has nothing to do with where the SA / WA players finish come the end of the year.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Me too - so it puzzles me that posters think better coverage should be a priority over, for example, more resources into development.

 

[LemmingMaster]

That’s why I “talked like that” - no other recruiter would disrespect the most recent draft crop by making such claims.

He may have an opinion, but he can’t keep it to himself.

I remember Carlton recruiters saying back in the day they would have picked NicNat with pick 1 if eligible.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Me too - so it puzzles me that posters think better coverage should be a priority over, for example, more resources into development.

What is so puzzling about the general public wanting more vision, does not mean it is the best return on investment for the AFL.

 

[HedgeFund]

I remember Carlton recruiters saying back in the day they would have picked NicNat with pick 1 if eligible.

Just what they needed, another “teaser pony” who does a couple of exciting things and is otherwise only good for elite hitout numbers.

Rory Sloane went at pick 44 that year. That’s value. Also Dan Hannebery at 30 and Dayne Beams at 29.

All ended up superior players to the top 10 of 2008.

 

[GoGrows]

Just what they needed, another “teaser pony” who does a couple of exciting things and is otherwise only good for elite hitout numbers.

Rory Sloane went at pick 44 that year. That’s value. Also Dan Hannebery at 30 and Dayne Beams at 29.

All ended up superior players to the top 10 of 2008.

cherry picking the best players from the draft in hindsight is a strange exercise.

what it shows, is that good players will be available later in the draft, in most drafts.

it does not de-value the importance of high draft picks.

Rory Sloane went at 44, that does not mean picks in the 40s are better than top 5 picks.

Caleb Daniel went at 46, if the WB didnt draft him, its possible he may have gone undrafted.

 

[HedgeFund]

Just what they needed, another “teaser pony” who does a couple of exciting things and is otherwise only good for elite hitout numbers.

Rory Sloane went at pick 44 that year. That’s value. Also Dan Hannebery at 30 and Dayne Beams at 29.

All ended up superior players to the top 10 of 2008.

My perhaps too subtle point is this.

So Carlton said openly they’d have taken Nic Nat at #1. More fool them I say.

What the 2008 draft shows us is that you can get all giddy about top 10 picks, but once they’re at a club, they’re on a level playing field to all other draftees, and the fact they went at the pointy end is not a significant factor in whether they’ll succeed long term or not (perhaps more latitude will be given to slow development primarily from a club marketing viewpoint “oh we took him at such a high pick, we’d look stupid if we cut him so early”).

The likes of Sloane, Hannebery, Beams outstripping their fellow “sexy” draftees confirms my view - smart clubs who draft for character and resilience moreso than X factor invariably come out ahead in the medium to long term.

 

[HedgeFund]

A school mate of mine has been contacted by Stephen McCrystal, Adelaide Crows eastern recruiting manager about having an early interview. He's a Western Jets midfielder who has barely played but is a very raw prospect, can run all day and has an amazing pair of hands.

Good luck to him.

Whomever he is.

 

[GoGrows]

The likes of Sloane, Hannebery, Beams outstripping their fellow “sexy” draftees confirms my view - smart clubs who draft for character and resilience moreso than X factor invariably come out ahead in the medium to long term.

im not sure it does confirm your point.

so without the benefit of hindsight, lets see if your theory holds up.

which player drafted in the 40s or later from this draft will end up being a superstar. not merely a solid player, but a star?

and you are saying that Beams has character? lol

NN is a star. the only issue with him is he hasn't been able to stay healthy.

id rather a NN at full fight than any of those mids you mentioned.

 

[GoGrows]

and that's not to denigrate any of those mids. they are all great, but they are all just about interchangeable. give me NN and and the 10th best mid vs the a top 5 mid and the 10th best ruck. NN provides a huge point of difference, or X factor as you called it.

 

[Zurgblade]

I remember Carlton recruiters saying back in the day they would have picked NicNat with pick 1 if eligible.

why wasnt he eligible?

 

[Taylor]

why wasnt he eligible?

Carlton were the problem, they had pick #6.

 

[Unique Name]

and that's not to denigrate any of those mids. they are all great, but they are all just about interchangeable. give me NN and and the 10th best mid vs the a top 5 mid and the 10th best ruck. NN provides a huge point of difference, or X factor as you called it.

Is this the same NicNat that got 4 disposals in the grand final.

 

[GoGrows]

Is this the same NicNat that got 4 disposals in the grand final.

yep. the same one.

NN can influence the game with 0 disposals.

but to your point, every player can have a bad game. some rather prominent Crows players were not too flash in the GF last year.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Article from Callum Twomey on the AFL website in its entirety here.


Draft's bounty of sons, brothers, cousins
Callum Twomey
Mar 1, 2018 11:20AM



Superdraft or superhyped? Early view on 2018
HIS DAD was a left-handed opening batsman for Australia who made three Test centuries and steered his country to an Ashes win, but draft hopeful Sam Elliott has set his sights on an AFL career.

The 201cm prospect is the son of Matthew Elliott, who played 21 Tests for Australia between 1996-2004, including his 199-run effort against England in 1997 at Lord's. He was also a record-setter at domestic level for Victoria and South Australia.

But after suffering some stress fractures in his back in recent years linked to his own cricket, Sam, a tall forward, is now focusing on his football, with aspirations of being drafted at the end of this year.

He has already shown exciting signs, and will line up for the Oakleigh Chargers in the TAC Cup this season as well as school side Carey Grammar.

Elliott is one of many familiar names in a draft pool stacked with potential father-son picks and players who have fathers, brothers or uncles who have experienced the top level.

The Chargers are home to many of them. The powerful club has five father-son prospects in its ranks: Will Kelly (the son of Collingwood's Craig), Zac Hart (son of Adelaide's Ben), Ben Silvagni (son of Carlton's Stephen), Kyle Dunkley (son of Sydney's Andrew and brother of Western Bulldog Josh), and Kye Barlow (son of Hawthorn's Kris).

Barlow is also the cousin of Ryley Stoddart, a clever half-back who was drafted by the Swans last November.

Silvagni is one of a handful of possible Carlton father-son choices, alongside Will Hickmott (son of Adrian), who will play for Western Australia, and Oskar Manton, the son of former Blues defender Glenn.

Geelong has access to wiry midfielder Oscar Brownless this year, with the son of former forward Bill to co-captain the reigning TAC Cup premiers.

Baxter Mensch is also eligible to join the Cats after his father David's 158-game career there, while Zac Knights, the son of former Richmond captain and now Cats assistant Matthew, has been playing in the Falcons' practice games and as a late developer will be watched by the Tigers.

Dustin Fletcher's son Mason – described as a near clone of the champion Essendon defender – has trained with the Bombers over the pre-season and will be available to the club at this year's draft.

Mason Fletcher flies for a hanger at The Hangar. Picture: AFL Photos

Rhylee West, Scott's son, could continue the Western Bulldogs' recent good run of father-son selections, while the Brisbane Lions will have access to Jake Bradshaw, whose father Daniel played in two of the Lions' premierships.

Jake has trained with the club in recent months, but will play for the Murray Bushrangers in the TAC Cup this season.

The Lions will also have first call on James Rendell, the son of former Fitzroy player Matt, who is now a recruiter with Collingwood.

North Melbourne has a bit to consider on the father-son front. They can take Joel Crocker, the son of premiership player and assistant coach Darren, but will have to win the battle for Nick Blakey and Bailey Scott.

Blakey, whose father John played for the Roos and Brisbane, can join both of his dad's former clubs, but is also eligible to join Sydney as an academy pick. John is a long-time assistant at the Swans.

Nick Blakey is likely to have three clubs bidding for his services. Picture: AFL Photos

Similarly, Scott will have the choice of three clubs: Geelong and North where his dad Robert played, and Gold Coast, where he's now a member of its academy.

Port Adelaide will be monitoring Mitch Mead, the son of original Power backman Darren, closely across the season. Mead has swapped SANFL clubs – from Woodville-West Torrens to the Magpies – so will be under their eye as the small forward presses his claims.

Then there are the prospects whose fathers played, but did not reach the 100-game qualification mark.

Among them is Dylan O'Reilly, the son of former Geelong, Fremantle and Carlton defender Stephen O'Reilly. O'Reilly played 98 games for the Dockers, and his son shapes as one of the leading West Australian prospects as an athletic tall.

Elliott Lamb (son of former Saint and Cat Jamie), Lachlan Sholl (son of ex-Blue Brett), Will Chandler (son of former Roo Jeff) and Jordan Butts (son of Carlton three-gamer Gerald) are other players vying for spots on AFL lists this year who have football pedigree.

Former Magpie Jason Wild has two sons – Mitch and Cameron – coming through the Northern Knights' program, with Mitch eligible to be picked this year.

Wild played 70 games for Collingwood so the pair do not meet eligibility as father-sons. However, through their indigenous background, they are members of Carlton's Next Generation Academy.

Beyond the fathers there are more links. At the Greater Western Victoria Rebels Tom Berry is trying to follow his older brother, Brisbane's Jarrod, into the AFL, while Swan Jake Lloyd's younger brother Matthew is also draft eligible this year.

Possible top-10 pick Ian Hill is a cousin of Freo pair Stephen and Bradley and also related to Carlton's Jarrod Pickett. His WA teammate Jarrod Cameron saw his brother Charlie cross from Adelaide to Brisbane last season.

Cameron is considered a big talent, but West Coast will have priority access over him as a member of its Next Generation Academy.

Ruck prospect Bailey Griffiths' uncle is Port premiership player Dean Brogan. Murray Bushranger Eli Smith is the nephew of former Saint and Hawk Joel, while his Bushrangers teammate Jacob Koschitzke is a cousin of ex-St Kilda big man Justin.

At the Bendigo Pioneers, Jacob Atley is aiming to be the third member of his family to reach the AFL – following Shaun at North Melbourne and Port Adelaide's Joe – while Zach Denahy is a cousin of Richmond superstar Dustin Martin.

 

[HedgeFund]

im not sure it does confirm your point.

so without the benefit of hindsight, lets see if your theory holds up.

which player drafted in the 40s or later from this draft will end up being a superstar. not merely a solid player, but a star?

and you are saying that Beams has character? lol

NN is a star. the only issue with him is he hasn't been able to stay healthy.

id rather a NN at full fight than any of those mids you mentioned.

Yeah - but he is rarely in full flight.

If you want bang for your buck, he has fizzled unfortunately.

Running (career) Brownlow Totals:
Hannebery 106
Sloan 88
Beames 70
Naitanui 23

I’m talking long term production, and for various reasons, he hasn’t produced.

How can a player who has amassed 23 Brownlow votes in 9 seasons playing as a ruck/forward be a star?

No one can honestly predict which player taken after 40 in this draft will be a star - but history suggests there will be plenty who outperform players taken in the top 10. As, IMO these have outperformed Watts, Nic Nat, Hill, Vickery, Yarran, Davis, Hurley, Hartlett, and Rich - with Zeibell a line ball contender.

 

[briztoon]

im not sure it does confirm your point.

so without the benefit of hindsight, lets see if your theory holds up.

which player drafted in the 40s or later from this draft will end up being a superstar. not merely a solid player, but a star?

and you are saying that Beams has character? lol

NN is a star. the only issue with him is he hasn't been able to stay healthy.

id rather a NN at full fight than any of those mids you mentioned.

As captain of our club, and instrumental in a number of our kids re-signing, yes he has. He was also part of our clubs recruiting team at last years AFL draft combine, sitting in on the interviews etc, and also partnered some of our scouts last year at TAC cup games, U18 champs etc.

 

[Suma Magic]

Anyone know anything about Jarrod Cameron?

Good he's in our academy. No idea if he is as good as his brother though.

 

[GoGrows]

Yeah - but he is rarely in full flight.

If you want bang for your buck, he has fizzled unfortunately.

Running (career) Brownlow Totals:
Hannebery 106
Sloan 88
Beames 70
Naitanui 23

I’m talking long term production, and for various reasons, he hasn’t produced.

How can a player who has amassed 23 Brownlow votes in 9 seasons playing as a ruck/forward be a star?

No one can honestly predict which player taken after 40 in this draft will be a star - but history suggests there will be plenty who outperform players taken in the top 10. As, IMO these have outperformed Watts, Nic Nat, Hill, Vickery, Yarran, Davis, Hurley, Hartlett, and Rich - with Zeibell a line ball contender.

-if you couldve predicted injuries then sure

-you are cherry picking circumstances with the benefit of hindsight

-if we are talking BL votes as a measure of how much of a star someone is then i guess Alex Rance is not a star, afterall hes never polled more than 8 votes. NN got 10 in 2012.

-Ryder, the AA ruck last yr, has got 19 BL votes in his career.

we know the BL is a midfielders award, rucks who can pick up big possession numbers (Cox, Goldy etc) are advantaged

as i said, you can cherry pick players as you have in every draft. we know picking midfielders is easier than picking KP players and rucks.

 

[GoGrows]

But i dont think anyone is questioning your point that good players will be available later in the draft.

Or, better put, players will be selected later in the draft that will end up out-performing some of the higher drafted players.

100% that will happen.

theres no revelation in that.

trying to predict who those late picks are that will shine is the hard part, particularly KP players and rucks.

 

[HedgeFund]

Sandringham Dragons TAC List lodged with AFL Victoria yesterday.

72 players, 25 are 190cm or taller, 13 are 195cm or taller.

“They don’t make them like they used to”