That is some tall timber. 72 is a lot to choose from
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Preview 2018 Draft General Discussion
- Thread starter GoGrows
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HedgeFund
Norm Smith Medallist
Have to with all the private school kids.
After round 3, we lose 32 (and obviously only have 40 to pick from).
Oakleigh would be in a similar predicament with private school kids.
Watched Oakleigh v Western jets today.
Jets won the 1st half, Oakleigh got on top in 2nd half.
Emerson Jeka one to watch for 2019 draft, terrific player.
Jets won the 1st half, Oakleigh got on top in 2nd half.
Emerson Jeka one to watch for 2019 draft, terrific player.
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Didn't have team lists, which I find frustrating and unprofessional for this comp.
Obviously the recruiters are given lists, why can't they be put on Tac website.
eDPS
Brownlow Medallist
He plays for the Rebels
Snake_Baker
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- #383
HedgeFund
Norm Smith Medallist
How do you figure that?
HedgeFund
Norm Smith Medallist
It’s a scratch match for heaven’s sake - do you see VFL matches having team lists distributed?
Maybe get chummy with a recruiter and you can photograph the list and save it on your phone. Plenty of the kids running around up to this stage are not even a guarantee to get TAC listed, let alone AFL drafted.
Sometimes I feel like you enjoy having an argument just for the sake of it.
Last year for example, let's just assume that everyone was open to be drafted.
It would not be out of the questions that a few of the players eligible this year could have gone in the top 10.
The year Carlton drafted Kruezer, they said they would have picked NicNat, which even using hindsight would not have been a complete mistake.
Yes, some players drafted later end up being better players but that happens ever year. If you think NicNat is purely a "sexy" draft selection and does not have character, you are crazy. Secondly, resilience, so when West Coast selected NicNat, they could tell he was going to bust his knees way into the future?
HedgeFund
Norm Smith Medallist
Maybe.
Agreed (you just don’t need to say it explicitly if you’re a recruiter IMO).
Not a complete mistake because Kreuzer hasn’t met expectations either.
Nic’s injuries have only hampered him for half of 2013 and more recently (with his 2016 ACL) all of 2017. He played 20+ games in 5 of his first 8 seasons, and averaged 18.2 games per year.
I’m yet to see him produce the consistency of actual football output that the other three I mentioned have.
Plain and simple.
What of the other eighty-odd players drafted outside the first round? All the character and resilience in the world can't make you any taller or faster.
HedgeFund
Norm Smith Medallist
How about:
Tom Rockliff (68 Brownlow votes)
Luke Breust (triple premiership)
Liam Shiels (triple premiership)
I’d take the careers of those three over Nic Nat and most of the top 10 from 2008 too. Wouldn’t you?
There’s probably a few more too.....
Let's be generous and call it 10 of 100ish - still a fairly average strike-rate though, no? In any case, Breust and Shiels aren't in the same conversation - though decent players, they can thank their medals to being drafted by the right club at the right time.
I get the gist of your argument: that (some) recruiters are overly-swayed by flashy types when they should be focusing more on personality and just being able to football.
However, Sloane, Beams, Hannebery and Rockliff are exceptions to the broader trend. It's an incontrovertible fact that pick success steadily diminishes as you progress down the order. That suggests that recruiters get it right more often than otherwise, and that for all the late picks who blossom, whatever it is attracting them to top picks has at least some merit.
I get the gist of your argument: that (some) recruiters are overly-swayed by flashy types when they should be focusing more on personality and just being able to football.
However, Sloane, Beams, Hannebery and Rockliff are exceptions to the broader trend. It's an incontrovertible fact that pick success steadily diminishes as you progress down the order. That suggests that recruiters get it right more often than otherwise, and that for all the late picks who blossom, whatever it is attracting them to top picks has at least some merit.
I've never bought into the populist echo that Naitanui has no footy brains, he's played since a young age for goodness sake. His ruckwork as a potential draftee was immense and we've seen him deliver the ball on a platter to his midfield like very few ruckman going around in recent times. He'd still retain his position if the draft was done again today. Sure the examples cited like Hannebery, Beams, Rockliff and Breust have had excellent careers, but I'd know I'd take Naitanui just about any day over them and would be highly surprised if clubs didn't either.
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- #393
Hell no.
As i said above. BL is a midfielders award, not sure why you keep using that as a measure of success against a ruckman?
Liam Shiels is indeed a triple premiership player. So you'd take him over Pavlich? Pav never won a premiership, thus Shiels better right?
Can find midfielders like that easily. Thats why they are available so late in the draft. That's why you can cherry pick examples with 5+yrs hindsight.
HedgeFund
Norm Smith Medallist
I’m just lining them up against the big fella (only) and rating their career output above his - which is exactly what was asked, and what I’ve done.
Pavlich is irrelevant, we are talking #9 from West Coast and he wouldn’t carry Pav’s boot bag on career output thus far.
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I feel the point Hedgefund is making is more in line with what most AFL recruiters are actually thinking these days with top picks - ie. it is more about is going to give me the best % chance of a return (the player delivers a successful career) for that pick / avoiding a bust and less about how good that player could be and their "upside". This is why recent years early picks have been filled predominantly by midfielders and not talls.
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- #396
i think the changing way the game is being played has more to do with that.
This has always roughly been the case, it is a combination of best player and who has the least downside risk. The lower down the draft you go, you're often picking someone with a few AFL qualities but a number of weaknesses.
School holidays - it's either mid year or right in the AFL finals and with year 12 exams looming.
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