2018 Draft thread

[Fitzroy bears]

I am interested to see that some on here think gold coast will settle for pick 3 for tom lynch. I am not trying to have a go, but I would think they would want more for him and could get it by forcing a trade, especially since they demanded 2 top end draft picks for o'meara. Tom Lynch is way more valuable to gc then o'meara was. IMO I don't think we will have to worry about gc compo cause pick 3 won't be enough.

 

[scoman]

If Gold Coast want the King twins they can probably secure them by trading back a few spots. Still think Adelaide will come hard if Gold Coast end up with picks 2 and 3.

 

[jackess]

Rayner/Schache epitomises it for me.

There was a graph or a table going around a couple of years ago showing the value of early picks (pick vs game played) and the sharp drop off from about pick 50.

I think having early second and thirds is just as valuable as having a very early pick. Increases the chance of having a few AFL standard players added to the list.

 

[jackess]

I am interested to see that some on here think gold coast will settle for pick 3 for tom lynch. I am not trying to have a go, but I would think they would want more for him and could get it by forcing a trade, especially since they demanded 2 top end draft picks for o'meara. Tom Lynch is way more valuable to gc then o'meara was. IMO I don't think we will have to worry about gc compo cause pick 3 won't be enough.

They’re not getting better than pick 3. Look at the Dangerfield trade. If the nominated club doesn’t have it then you can’t receive it.

 

[Lace Out]

I'm just saying it's a lottery - most of the talk is just about who goes before who - like some kind of casino game.

I'd say that in 100% of drafts the order that players are taken in is not the same (or even roughly similar) to how the players end up performing in the AFL.

I don't think a pick in the top 10 is more likely to succeed than a pick in the 30s for example.

A pick in the top 10 historically will kill a top 30..higher the better all over really

 

[Tim F]

What have Adelaide got pick 8 and 13 and maybe something for Sloane if he left . Can’t see them giving players away as they will see there list as being in the frame for flags. 8 /13 and their first next year might be something they would offer but if I had those picks I’d be getting them to sell their sole for them.

 

[scoman]

What have Adelaide got pick 8 and 13 and maybe something for Sloane if he left . Can’t see them giving players away as they will see there list as being in the frame for flags. 8 /13 and their first next year might be something they would offer but if I had those picks I’d be getting them to sell their sole for them.

If Sloan leaves they are likely to score first round compensation. Also an outside chance McGovern leaves to either Freo or St Kilda eho currently hold 4 and 5. Reasonable chance they will have what it takes to move up if motivated.

 

[Jivlain]

I'm just saying it's a lottery - most of the talk is just about who goes before who - like some kind of casino game.

I'd say that in 100% of drafts the order that players are taken in is not the same (or even roughly similar) to how the players end up performing in the AFL.

I don't think a pick in the top 10 is more likely to succeed than a pick in the 30s for example.

Statiscally, they are much more likely to. 73% of top 2 picks play 200+ games. 38% of top 10 picks do. Against 14% of picks 31-50. It's a gamble, sure, but a high draft pick gives you a much likelier ticket.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Why do people assume the Suns wouldn’t match any offer for Lynch? If I were the Suns no way would I be happy with pick 3 - old be wanting a first and _second rounder at minimum.

 

[briztoon]

What have Adelaide got pick 8 and 13 and maybe something for Sloane if he left . Can’t see them giving players away as they will see there list as being in the frame for flags. 8 /13 and their first next year might be something they would offer but if I had those picks I’d be getting them to sell their sole for them.

Not sure Adelaide will be keen to use next years picks in this years trade period, when they look like having another good crop of youngsters coming through. Remember the name Cameron Taheny, top SA midfielder for next years U18's. They also have two NGA academy forwards, tall Daniel Sladojevic and small Anzac Lochowiak.

 

[Tim F]

Because when a player asks to leave and requests a trade it says to the playing group that is heart isn’t in it . Still think afl
Will come to party here and offer lynch marketing money as hunt and Folau got .

 

[jackess]

Why do people assume the Suns wouldn’t match any offer for Lynch? If I were the Suns no way would I be happy with pick 3 - old be wanting a first and _second rounder at minimum.

Look at the teams rumoured to be where Lynch will end up; Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond. How do they offer something better than pick 3?

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Look at the teams rumoured to be where Lynch will end up; Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond. How do they offer something better than pick 3?

Future picks. Whatever. They can get creative. If I’m the Suns there’s no way I roll over and accept unders.

 

[jackess]

Future picks. Whatever. They can get creative. If I’m the Suns there’s no way I roll over and accept unders.

But they’re not going to get better. Especially remembering the team Lynch goes to will probably then finish higher next year.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Because when a player asks to leave and requests a trade it says to the playing group that is heart isn’t in it . Still think afl
Will come to party here and offer lynch marketing money as hunt and Folau got .

This doesn’t make sense. Lynch’s decision doesn’t have anything to do with money I don’t think. I’m pretty sure the Suns could afford.

Adelaide we’re never going to keep Dangerfield, but the compensation they’d have got didn’t match the players value. So they matched the contract.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

But they’re not going to get better. Especially remembering the team Lynch goes to will probably then finish higher next year.

Like I said, make them get creative. Make them find the picks from somewhere.

 

[jackess]

This doesn’t make sense. Lynch’s decision doesn’t have anything to do with money I don’t think. I’m pretty sure the Suns could afford.

Adelaide we’re never going to keep Dangerfield, but the compensation they’d have got didn’t match the players value. So they matched the contract.

And still didn’t get the players value. If they’d finished 17th they wouldn’t have matched.

 

[jackess]

Like I said, make them get creative. Make them find the picks from somewhere.

But they don’t. It just doesn’t happen.

 

[briztoon]

And still didn’t get the players value. If they’d finished 17th they wouldn’t have matched.

Have to agree wit Jackess. How are the mentioned teams going to offer better?

Two first rounders that will both be in the 12 to 18 range. I'd rather the pick 3 or 4 compensation pick.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

And still didn’t get the players value. If they’d finished 17th they wouldn’t have matched.

But they got better than what they’d have received otherwise.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Have to agree wit Jackess. How are the mentioned teams going to offer better?

Two first rounders that will both be in the 12 to 18 range. I'd rather the pick 3 or 4 compensation pick.

Given their list and the depth of the first round, Gold Coast May rate having two more first rounders. They may wish to make a statement. It’s all up in the air. All I’m seeing is people saying it’s a fire gone conclusion. In July.

 

[jackess]

But they got better than what they’d have received otherwise.

If he nominates Carlton then yeah they should probably match but given that the team he’s going to doesn’t have an earlier pick than the compensation will be and probably has a much later pick then it’s going to be tough.

They couldn’t even get 2 first round picks for him

 

[jackess]

Given their list and the depth of the first round, Gold Coast May rate having two more first rounders. They may wish to make a statement. It’s all up in the air. All I’m seeing is people saying it’s a fire gone conclusion. In July.

If they want 2 first round picks they take 3 and trade it to the crows for 9 and 12 or whatever they have instead of getting two late first rounders from Collingwood.

 

[irel]

If they want 2 first round picks they take 3 and trade it to the crows for 9 and 12 or whatever they have instead of getting two late first rounders from Collingwood.

Like Belgian said. Collingwood would have to get creative. They'll be getting a first rounder for Darcy Moore so there's two first rounders to throw the Sun's way. Also next years' first round pick and there could be players going Sun's way as well. If Collingwood want him the'll have to meet the Suns. Because once they match It's up to Collingwood to find a way. The Suns are in a relatively good position, come trade time.

 

[jackess]

Like Belgian said. Collingwood would have to get creative. They'll be getting a first rounder for Darcy Moore so there's two first rounders to throw the Sun's way. Also next years' first round pick and there could be players going Sun's way as well. If Collingwood want him the'll have to meet the Suns. Because once they match It's up to Collingwood to find a way. The Suns are in a relatively good position, come trade time.

I still think they’d prefer to keep him and still won’t get his value.