List Mgmt. 2018 Draft/Trade/FA Thread

[Sunny_]

Werribee forward Josh Corbett’s name was raised. Must be a few murmurs down south we are considering him.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-06-24/meet-the-vfl-forward-your-afl-club-needs

We should be. Hed be amazing for us.

 

[17er]

I'm lost why would that be of interest to us?

He would have been high on the Suns Draft Board, but Carlton bid first and GWS matched the bid. He's just had a year out with an ACL and I wouldn't want him, but the fact that he's open to moving and has GWS and the Saints means that managers are talking about possibilities.

The Suns will be consulted about a lot of trading this year because they have a huge number of picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds which other clubs may be able to use in 3 way trades.

Eg. Setterfield to St Kilda, pick #3 goes to Suns, WC pick and pick #26 to GWS from Suns and #41 to St Kilda from Suns

This isn't a likely deal, just ballpark. Such a deal might include a player such as Kolodjashnij or Lonergan. GWS might want more value, or whatever. Point is, the Suns can facilitate trades as a 3rd party.

 

[thurls64]

Swan Nic Newman has met with North Melbourne today. reportedly

 

[17er]

Swan Nic Newman has met with North Melbourne today. reportedly

Good. Really unimpressed with his decision not to play in the NEAFL Grand Final. Not the kind of player I want at the Suns.

 

[thurls64]

Good. Really unimpressed with his decision not to play in the NEAFL Grand Final. Not the kind of player I want at the Suns.

was he even allowed to under the NEAFL finals rules?

 

[eppo67]

He would have been high on the Suns Draft Board, but Carlton bid first and GWS matched the bid. He's just had a year out with an ACL and I wouldn't want him, but the fact that he's open to moving and has GWS and the Saints means that managers are talking about possibilities.

The Suns will be consulted about a lot of trading this year because they have a huge number of picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds which other clubs may be able to use in 3 way trades.

Eg. Setterfield to St Kilda, pick #3 goes to Suns, WC pick and pick #26 to GWS from Suns and #41 to St Kilda from Suns

This isn't a likely deal, just ballpark. Such a deal might include a player such as Kolodjashnij or Lonergan. GWS might want more value, or whatever. Point is, the Suns can facilitate trades as a 3rd party.

Right thanks for that

 

[17er]

A few important changes to the Trade Period this year and important dates

- 2 October – 5 October National Draft Combine starts 3 days after the Grand Final
- 5 October NEAFL Draft Combine is on
- 5 October Restricted free agency offers (this is when Tom Lynch's offer becomes public and when we find out where he's going)
- 5 October Unrestricted free agency period starts (George Horlin-Smith, Taylor Duryea, Ryan Schoenmakers, Brendan Whitecross, Sam Gilbert can all be signed from the start)
- 8 October Official start to the Trade Period (earliest that trades like Anthony Miles can be lodged)
- 15 October AFL restricted free agency matching offer three-day period ends (the latest opportunity for the Suns to match the offer for Lynch)
- 17 October Player trading ends at 8:30pm

Live trading is the biggest change and part of it is the fact that clubs do not have to finalise their pick trading for another 4 weeks until the 16th November, which means the Suns picks (currently 7, but likely 9 with a priority pick and compensation pick) will be subject to plenty of offers and approaches that could later be advantageous to hit in Live Trading.

I predict the Suns will be especially busy in this period given the opportunities to move up and down the Draft Order. This is something that means the Suns can take their sweet time in trade negotiations for players and picks separately, which is something that has been lacking in past negotiations where other clubs have dragged out deals until the Deadline.

As mentioned, if we have 9 picks now, the Trade period will determine how many more we can add. Hall to North makes 10, but Miles to Suns goes back to 9. GHS would come free and there has been talk of the AFL giving us access to Mature Players outside the Draft, so the number of picks depends on how much Cameron can get via trades with guys like Hall, Kolodjashnij, Leslie and Lonergan. Currently there are 2 Senior List spots and 4 Rookie list spots available, so between 2 and 4 further players will be traded/delisted if Dew's 8 to 10 list changes is true, but it could be more with re-rookiing a possibility also.

 

[17er]

was he even allowed to under the NEAFL finals rules?

It was confirmed on this forum that he chose not to play despite being eligible because he didn't want to risk injury in case he had to do a physical for a rival team before the Draft. Understandable, but I don't think that attitude is the right fit for the Suns. I dare say the Swans weren't impressed either, but they won't say anything because they are looking to get value for their player trades.

 

[Deleted member 2402071]

Swan Nic Newman has met with North Melbourne today. reportedly

I wonder if that means contract $ talks with Kolodjashnij are becoming more realistic for his recent output?

 

[17er]

I wonder if that means contract $ talks with Kolodjashnij are becoming more realistic for his recent output?

Unfortunately, the gap between his best and worst is much like the team performance of 2018. At KK's best, we defeated Sydney at the SCG that was the greatest victory of the club's existence. At his worst, we cop a 74 point thrashing from Richmond in a game where his ineptitude was animatedly being discussed in the coaches box. No, he doesn't deserve to continue on big money, but it may have reached a point where there just isn't a place in Dew's gameplan for him. I mean, where will he play? 3rd tall in defence? No way. He can play 7th man in defence and take intercept marks all day, but we never win games with 7 defenders.
He can play on the wing, but rarely gets selected there because Bowes, Weller, Holman, Ballard, Martin and Ah Chee are all better options there.

It is a contract year and the new list manager's cuts are going to be brutal. Craig Cameron didn't select KK high in the 1st round, he won't care if the Demons only offer their 3rd rounder because it creates a roster spot and builds Draft capital.

 

[Deleted member 2402071]

Now I know it’s old dodgey mate again, so grain of salt stuff but it does pass the time until the real stuff begins... At least this one would suit our needs a bit more. Lolz

 

[17er]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-19/podcast-twins-could-be-key-to-suns-revival

Road to the Draft podcast with Cal Twomey and Nat Edwards

Title is misleading, 1 question among 20 with Suns Recruiting Manager, Kall Burns.

The whole episode is about the Suns recruitment this year and past years.

Kall doesn't give much away about 2018 Trade and Draft strategy, but he does give insight into the qualities the current football department are looking for in recruits. A lot of time spent on Powell and Ballard, but also the past few drafts and how those players are tracking.

These podcasts keep getting the King Brothers campaign plastered over them any time they mention the Suns, but it really isn't their focus, just marketing to non-Suns fans.

 

[Jirik13]

Now I know it’s old dodgey mate again, so grain of salt stuff but it does pass the time until the real stuff begins... At least this one would suit our needs a bit more. Lolz

Jack Niall reported May met Dees. If Hogan would go to Freo we could end with pick 6 or pick 5 if Neale goes to Lions.

 

[17er]

Jack Niall reported May met Dees. If Hogan would go to Freo we could end with pick 6 or pick 5 if Neale goes to Lions.

Seems like a bit of fantasy draft lunacy, although Jake Niall usually write good stuff. I guess his new bosses from Channel 9 have him writing this crap. Why would the Dees trade Hogan?

 

[kreglze]

If May met with the Dees, would look at grabbing Sam Frost from them on the way back. Has shown he can stand up in finals filling in for Jake Lever.

 

[Jirik13]

Seems like a bit of fantasy draft lunacy, although Jake Niall usually write good stuff. I guess his new bosses from Channel 9 have him writing this crap. Why would the Dees trade Hogan?

Yes, usually Niall is more reasonable than the rest of Melbourne media. Every year there is a speculation that Hogan will return home. He actually admitted last year after extending contract that he seriously considered it. One could argue that McDonald and Weideman are enough forwards for Demons. Hogan's navicular fracture is a question mark too. May would be perfect fit for them with defence still questionable. Lever could play his original intercept role with May in.

 

[Iva Bigun]

Jack Niall reported May met Dees. If Hogan would go to Freo we could end with pick 6 or pick 5 if Neale goes to Lions.

I would do this deal, the only bit that annoys me is the other 2 clubs get guns, we get a great pick but they are always a crap shoot

Harley
Kk
Day
Gorringe
Garlett

 

[17er]

Based on the Lever trade, I don't think the Suns would agree to simply Pick #5. Jake Niall is basing things on the compensation the Suns would get if May walked out next year in Unrestricted Free Agency. The difference between May and Lynch right now is that May is contracted and Lynch is out of contract. There is no need for the Suns to agree to a convenient trade that favours Melbourne and Fremantle.

A year later, Adelaide's Lever Trade looks almost as bad as the Suns pick trade with West Coast. Basically, Melbourne got Lever, 2017 pick #37 (Harrison Petty), 2018 pick #43, while Adelaide got in return pick #10 (which they sent to Carlton in the Gibbs trade), a late pick in this year's 1st round and a late pick in the 4th round.

The equivalent would have to cost Melbourne more than Hogan and Freo more than pick #5. One way pick poor Melbourne and Freo could tempt the Suns is with future picks in the early rounds, a gamble that would tempt the Suns if they could send early 2nd round picks for 1st round picks in 2019.

Suns lose: May, #26, #29
Suns gain: #5, 2 future 1sts

Demons lose: Hogan, future 1st
Demons gain: May, #29

Freo lose: #5, future 1st
Freo gain: Hogan, #26

This might sound outrageous, but it is pretty damn close to what the market dictates. The pick swaps could be later, 2018 3rd rounders for 2019 2nds, but this is not just another player here. This is the kind of price that Lynch should be getting - could get - and teams have shown they won't wait a year if they can get a player now.

 

[SnusCG]

Based on the Lever trade, I don't think the Suns would agree to simply Pick #5. Jake Niall is basing things on the compensation the Suns would get if May walked out next year in Unrestricted Free Agency. The difference between May and Lynch right now is that May is contracted and Lynch is out of contract. There is no need for the Suns to agree to a convenient trade that favours Melbourne and Fremantle.

A year later, Adelaide's Lever Trade looks almost as bad as the Suns pick trade with West Coast. Basically, Melbourne got Lever, 2017 pick #37 (Harrison Petty), 2018 pick #43, while Adelaide got in return pick #10 (which they sent to Carlton in the Gibbs trade), a late pick in this year's 1st round and a late pick in the 4th round.

The equivalent would have to cost Melbourne more than Hogan and Freo more than pick #5. One way pick poor Melbourne and Freo could tempt the Suns is with future picks in the early rounds, a gamble that would tempt the Suns if they could send early 2nd round picks for 1st round picks in 2019.

Suns lose: May, #26, #29
Suns gain: #5, 2 future 1sts

Demons lose: Hogan, future 1st
Demons gain: May, #29

Freo lose: #5, future 1st
Freo gain: Hogan, #26

This might sound outrageous, but it is pretty damn close to what the market dictates. The pick swaps could be later, 2018 3rd rounders for 2019 2nds, but this is not just another player here. This is the kind of price that Lynch should be getting - could get - and teams have shown they won't wait a year if they can get a player now.

0% chance. Be real, May is worth about pick 8. Hogan is 3 years younger and has kicked 40+ goals in 3 of his 4 seasons at AFL level. Hogan on market value is worth twice what May is.

At best in the scenario you’re talking about we could maybe get

Out: May + pick 17
In: pick 5 + future second (fre)

Melb
Out: Hogan
In: May + 17

Freo
Out: pick 5 + future second
In: Hogan

 

[Basssman]

I think the whole Footy world would agree hogan would have more trade currency than May. I doubt Melbourne would give up hogan and a first round pick for May and a second rounder


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[17er]

0% chance. Be real, May is worth about pick 8. Hogan is 3 years younger and has kicked 40+ goals in 3 of his 4 seasons at AFL level. Hogan on market value is worth twice what May is.

At best in the scenario you’re talking about we could maybe get

Out: May + pick 17
In: pick 5 + future second (fre)

Melb
Out: Hogan
In: May + 17

Freo
Out: pick 5 + future second
In: Hogan

No way. Dixon got more. Lever got more. You can't seriously say May is worth less than those 2. You are always underselling the Suns in these trades. News flash! The Suns have the whip hand on this trade.

Freo got what it demanded last year, so why would we just roll over and throw away one of our first round picks and our captain for a better first round pick and risky second rounder?

Do you know what will happen if no bargain can be reached for May by the end of the Trade Period? Nothing. He'll remain a Sun. This trade will be on the Suns terms or it won't happen.

 

[Jen2310]

Sorry to intrude, but I really hope Melb does not get May. My club needs him more than theirs. I feel like the Suns, if they can't get a commitment from him this year, they should trade him. Nobody wants another Lynch situation for the entire 2019. This club needs stability.

 

[17er]

I think the whole Footy world would agree hogan would have more trade currency than May. I doubt Melbourne would give up hogan and a first round pick for May and a second rounder


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Hogan is only going to one of 2 clubs, so his value is lowered. He's also injured and won't be able to have a physical, thus lowering his value. May's fully fit and the prettiest girl at the dance.

The Dees gave up more for Lever and could potentially have given up a lot more had their season been poor. Freo has been shown to pay overs for home talent and they really need ready made players like Hogan with their 3 retirements and likely loss of Neale.

kreglze's idea of throwing Sam Frost into the mix is actually makes a lot of sense. Pick #5 and a player with 7 seasons of AFL would be a good price for May. Toss in some other pick trades to boost the Suns 2019 Draft and shed unwanted picks.

 

[SnusCG]

No way. Dixon got more. Lever got more. You can't seriously say May is worth less than those 2. You are always underselling the Suns in these trades. News flash! The Suns have the whip hand on this trade.

Freo got what it demanded last year, so why would we just roll over and throw away one of our first round picks and our captain for a better first round pick and risky second rounder?

Do you know what will happen if no bargain can be reached for May by the end of the Trade Period? Nothing. He'll remain a Sun. This trade will be on the Suns terms or it won't happen.

I agree with the last bit but take the glasses off mate, May isn’t worth 3 first round picks regardless of what 2nd round picks we throw into the mix. You’re grossly overvaluing him. No way he was worth more than an AA squad 21 year old in Lever last year. Dixon’s trade was complex and we gave up Dixon, 19 and 49 for 10, 31, and port+Richmond’s future seconds. Pick 5 and Fremantle future second for May and 17 is breakeven imo

 

[17er]

I agree with the last bit but take the glasses off mate, May isn’t worth 3 first round picks regardless of what 2nd round picks we throw into the mix. You’re grossly overvaluing him. No way he was worth more than an AA squad 21 year old in Lever last year. Dixon’s trade was complex and we gave up Dixon, 19 and 49 for 10, 31, and port+Richmond’s future seconds. Pick 5 and Fremantle future second for May and 17 is breakeven imo

You always undersell the Suns in these things. This isn't about getting fair value, it is about getting maximum value. You overvalue high draft picks and have a defeatist attitude about the Suns chances of getting anything reasonable out of trades. I might go too high, but you're going too low. The Suns can't afford to come out of any possible trade of May with a poor outcome. If May goes as cheaply as you predict, the entire AFL will come after our Unrestricted Free Agents next year and we'll be decimated.