2018 List - a statistical view

[dogwatch]

Just to while away a few more minutes before the season starts, here’s a statistical look at our playing list for 2018, including rookies.

Whole List

Height
Average: 188.48 cm (last year 188.22, +0.14%)
Median: 187 cm (no change from 2017)
Comments: Pretty much what you’d expect year-on-year with any AFL list.

Weight
Average: 86.66 kg (86.29, +0.43%)
Median: 85 kg (no change from 2017)
Comments: About what you’d expect. The increase could be a bit above league average but probably not by much.

Age (as at 6 Feb)
Average: 23.59 (23.65)
Median: 22.70 (22.42)
Comments: With Murphy, Cloke, M.Boyd and Crameri departing you’d expect the average age to fall a fair bit but we’ve recruited a couple of mature players via trades – Trengove and Crozier. We also delisted Tweedie who was only 18 this time last year. So the median age has gone up while the average age has come down. That’s a healthy thing.


Individuals

Height
Every player is listed as the same height as last year except for two who have gone DOWN by 1cm – Honeychurch (170cm) and Roarke Smith (181cm). I wouldn’t be too alarmed though, especially as centimetres would get rounded up/down every year. It’d be within the tolerances of the measurement process - not genuine shrinkage. Perhaps more to the point, everybody who was on the list last year appears to have stopped growing ... including Caleb.

Weight
Here’s a sorted list of every player's weight gain (in kgs) compared to his 2017 listed weight:

8 - Young
6 - Mullenger-McHugh
6 - English
5 - Greene
4 - Cordy
4 - Lipinski
3 - Lynch
2 - Hunter
2 - Macrae
2 - Smith C
2 - Roberts
2 - Adams
2 - Dale
2 - Johannisen
1 - Bontempelli
1 - McLean
1 - Roughead
1 - Collins
1 - Williams
1 - Daniel
1 - Smith R
0 - Wallis
0 - Dahlhaus
0 - Trengove
0 - Campbell
0 - Boyd
0 - Liberatore
0 - Biggs
0 - Dickson
0 - Morris
0 - Redpath
-1 - Wood
-1 - Webb
-1 - Honeychurch
-1 - Jong
-2 - Suckling
-2 - Dunkley
-2 - Schache
-2 - Picken
-4 - Crozier

Comments: For a start let’s take the official weights with a pinch of caution. They can from vary day to day and are affected significantly by whether the player has just had a sweaty workout or has just rehydrated etc. You'd hope they'd do it in a controlled way each year but who knows? So it’s best to ignore anything in the range +1 to -1 … just assume they are near enough to what they were last year.

Leaving that middle bunch out I’m pretty pleased with the numbers at the top. Young was the youngest on any AFL list last year so with the big increase in bulk he’ll be competing more on adult terms this year. I was hoping English might have added a couple more kegs too but that (and more) will certainly come over the next 12 months. Greene will give himself more of a chance with the extra 5 kg but he’s still a weedy 75kg. Lipinski’s +4 kg surprised me – he’s now a more solid 19yo so watch out for him in 2018.

Of the more mature players hitting the gym I was particularly pleased to see Cordy’s +4 and the +2 from Hunter, Dale, Roberts and Macrae. JJ has added a couple of kg too. I hope it doesn’t affect his pace or agility. Not sure Adams needed to add 2kg as he was already 192cm and 96kg (now 98kg). I suppose you have to be built like a monster if you want to match it with the monsters.

At the other end of the scale we knew Schache was going to be down a couple of kgs so that’s a good thing and no surprise, but I was pretty shocked to see Crozier down 4kg on his Fremantle 2017 listing. I wonder if it’s a misprint or just a quirk of two different measurement regimes … or have we some sneaky plans for him to regain some lost pace, leap and agility? Dunkley losing a couple of kgs is a good thing too. He was a bit sluggish last year and not in the condition we’d hoped. Let's hope he has knuckled down this pre-season.

Age:
As of 6 February we have only three players over 30 (Morris 35, Picken 31, Dickson 30) and we have only one over 29 (Suckling) so we aren't about to drop off the cliff ... like Hawthorn's three-peat dynasty, for instance.

At the other end we have two 19yos and three 18yos although Callum Porter turns 19 this month.

Games Played:
200+: ......... 1 (Morris 241)
150-200: ..... 2 (Picken, Trengove)
100-149: ..... 6
50-99: ....... 10
20-49: ....... 11
1-19: .......... 7
Yet to play: .. 7

Likely Milestones this year:
250 games – Morris (241)
200 – Picken (198)
150 - Suckling (141),Dahlhaus (137)
100 – Macrae (99), Dickson (88), Bontempelli (85), Hunter (84), Johannisen (84)

Goals:
With Stringer’s departure, Tory Dickson (149) is our leading goalscorer. Dahlhaus (108) is the only other over 100. The only players with a chance of cracking the 100 this year are Picken (87) and Bontempelli (78). I’m hoping Dale Morris might double his career tally this year (3).

Only two players average more than a goal per game – Dickson (1.69) and Redpath (1.65). Nearest after that are Schache (0.93), Bontempelli (0.92), Tom Boyd (0.90) and Bailey Dale (0.87). Not an encouraging sign for 2018.

Whatever the criticisms of Redpath, the fact that he consistently gets multiple goals suggests to me we should give him first crack as one of the KPFs.

Brownlow Votes:
Marcus Bontempelli leads our vote-winners with 56 from Dahlhaus (35), Macrae (30), Picken (21) and Liberatore (20). I’m hoping Dale Morris might double his career tally this year (1).

It’s interesting to note that Bont has a career average of 0.70 votes per game which makes him 23rd of all players to have played the game in the Brownlow era. He’s 7th of those still playing the game behind Fyfe (0.98), Dangerfield (0.87), Gary Ablett (0.82), Joel Selwood (0.81), Dustin Martin (0.78) and Pendles (0.702). Not bad for a player who was still just 21 when his last season ended!

CD still don’t think he’s “elite” though.

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Here's the full list with height and weight (sorted in order of BMI, for what it's worth):

 

[Spectre]

Nice one DW. Here's hoping that Young still has plenty of spring in his step, and that Timmy doesn't get rag dolled so much in the ruck. Really worried about Adams, wasn't the plan for him to lose weight? If he keeps busting his feet his footy career will be very short. Impressive that naughton is already that solid. Age distribution is definitely heading in the right direction.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

Was hoping for more than 6 kgs from Timmy.

Nothing but steak and eggs from here on out or what ever diet Clay has been on for the last few years.

 

[TedDougChris]

Sadly very little chance that Super Dale Morris increases either his goal output or brownlow tally.... Although I think he started off last year with a few shots from around 50 - including one poster.... Hopefully he takes the big sticks on a few more times this year.... Would love to see that celebration !

 

[DelRe]

Those forward line stats! Only one forward with career goals over 100 and only two that average more than 1 a game who you wouldn’t necessarily say with a great deal of confidence would play every game this season (Personally I prefer the forward line without Redpath but his elevation to leadership suggests he’s likely to get given a reasonable crack at it).

Interesting to know how that compares across the league but instinctively would have to be near the bottom.

Where do the goals come from this year?

 

[Snake Livermore]

Dogwatch is back! Nice write up dw.

Interesting to see zero change in height after much hyperventilating in the trade and draft period that the dogs have gone too tall.

I'm not worried about goals. If we kick straight and win the midfield battle we will kick plenty. THE GOALS WILL TAKE CARE OF THEMSELVES.

 

[Del165892]

Dogwatch is back! Nice write up dw.

Interesting to see zero change in height after much hyperventilating in the trade and draft period that the dogs have gone too tall.

I'm not worried about goals. If we kick straight and win the midfield battle we will kick plenty. THE GOALS WILL TAKE CARE OF THEMSELVES.

Nah mate the Doggies definitely went too tall. How are we supposed to fit Redpath shache boyd roughead young Collins Adams naughton Roberts Campbell Cordy and trengove into the same forward line?

 

[SCRAY72]

Those forward line stats! Only one forward with career goals over 100 and only two that average more than 1 a game who you wouldn’t necessarily say with a great deal of confidence would play every game this season (Personally I prefer the forward line without Redpath but his elevation to leadership suggests he’s likely to get given a reasonable crack at it).

Interesting to know how that compares across the league but instinctively would have to be near the bottom.

Where do the goals come from this year?

If you have a look at the last 2 grand finals the teams with statistically better credentialed forward lines were beaten. We will get a better idea of what the club is doing with the forward line in about 4 weeks time.

 

[maddog37]

Nice one DW. Here's hoping that Young still has plenty of spring in his step, and that Timmy doesn't get rag dolled so much in the ruck. Really worried about Adams, wasn't the plan for him to lose weight? If he keeps busting his feet his footy career will be very short. Impressive that naughton is already that solid. Age distribution is definitely heading in the right direction.

Adams might have changed his fat/muscle mix and be heavier accordingly.

Nice to see Macrae continue to add size. He will be a machine once he gets AFL big.

 

[Spectre]

Adams might have changed his fat/muscle mix and be heavier accordingly.

Nice to see Macrae continue to add size. He will be a machine once he gets AFL big.

Have you seen Adams? Dude isn't called "The Specimen" for nothing, unlikely he had much fat to lose! Also, I'm no expert in feet, but with the problems he's had in the past was it the type of weight they were carrying that was the issue, or the amount of weight? Anyway, hope it's all idle worry...

Agree with the Macrae assessment, 2kg ain't much but if he keeps adding bulk and maintains his running power, will be very hard to stop.

 

[maddog37]

Have you seen Adams? Dude isn't called "The Specimen" for nothing, unlikely he had much fat to lose! Also, I'm no expert in feet, but with the problems he's had in the past was it the type of weight they were carrying that was the issue, or the amount of weight? Anyway, hope it's all idle worry...

Agree with the Macrae assessment, 2kg ain't much but if he keeps adding bulk and maintains his running power, will be very hard to stop.

I thought it looked as though Adams could cut up a bit more when he started. Was a bit underdone.

 

[Del165892]

I thought it looked as though Adams could cut up a bit more when he started. Was a bit underdone.

Can't tell if serious...

Adams had the best rig I've seen at this club since the minute he walked in the door.

 

[maddog37]

Can't tell if serious...


That is exactly how I feel reading 90% of your posts too Scrag. Confusing isn’t it.......

 

[Yojimbo]

Has Marcus Bontempelli 193 cm and 93 kg reached the point
in his height to weight journey where he has to morph into
our version of Adelaide's Tom Lynch and become an inside 50
specialist ?

 

[Del165892]

Has Marcus Bontempelli 193 cm and 93 kg reached the point
in his height to weight journey where he has to morph into
our version of Adelaide's Tom Lynch and become an inside 50
specialist ?

I hope not. He's one of the most damaging midfielders in the comp and a stoppage specialist, unlike Lynch. The more time he spends on ball the better off we are.

 

[bontshow]

CD still don’t think he’s “elite” though.

What's with that? Must be a reason

 

[Mattdougie]

Has Marcus Bontempelli 193 cm and 93 kg reached the point
in his height to weight journey where he has to morph into
our version of Adelaide's Tom Lynch and become an inside 50
specialist ?

No

 

[dogwatch]

What's with that? Must be a reason

Yes, there must be a reason but I'm blowed if I know what it is. Head-scratching stuff.

Pick the odd one out:

Tom Papley
Justin Westhoff
Brodie Smith
Jayden Hunt
Sam Menegola
Marcus Bontempelli
Shane Edwards
Ben McEvoy
Jack Crisp
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Todd Goldstein
Jack Sinclair
Aaron Hall
Sam Docherty​

Hint 1: He's the only one on that list who is not rated "elite" by Champion Data in January 2018.
Hint 2: He plays for the Western Bulldogs

There's no-one on that list I'd swap for Bont. In fact I'd be unlikely to take any three of them for the Bont.

 

[Fossie 32]

Yes, there must be a reason but I'm blowed if I know what it is. Head-scratching stuff.

Pick the odd one out:

Tom Papley
Justin Westhoff
Brodie Smith
Jayden Hunt
Sam Menegola
Marcus Bontempelli
Shane Edwards
Ben McEvoy
Jack Crisp
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Todd Goldstein
Jack Sinclair
Aaron Hall
Sam Docherty​

Hint 1: He's the only one on that list who is not rated "elite" by Champion Data in January 2018.
Hint 2: He plays for the Western Bulldogs

There's no-one on that list I'd swap for Bont. In fact I'd be unlikely to take any three of them for the Bont.

 

[Yojimbo]

No

No fuss as usual MD, technically Bont is already our
inside 50 specialist (The best kick inside 50) and
you could argue that based on his statistics he
may have already started to play more minutes
forward probably based on the constant hip ops
every off season and slow starts to every year.

Next question- Is Lin Jong more like Dustin Martin
or Patrick Dangerfield ? Just kidding big fella.

 

[TempletonTheRat]

There's no-one on that list I'd swap for Bont. In fact I'd be unlikely to take any three of them for the Bont.

Sam Docherty has now had two big seasons - can easily see why he was rated "elite"
.
.
.
but there is no one on any list I would swap for the Bont.

 

[TedDougChris]

Yes, there must be a reason but I'm blowed if I know what it is. Head-scratching stuff.

Pick the odd one out:

Tom Papley
Justin Westhoff
Brodie Smith
Jayden Hunt
Sam Menegola
Marcus Bontempelli
Shane Edwards
Ben McEvoy
Jack Crisp
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Todd Goldstein
Jack Sinclair
Aaron Hall
Sam Docherty​

Hint 1: He's the only one on that list who is not rated "elite" by Champion Data in January 2018.
Hint 2: He plays for the Western Bulldogs

There's no-one on that list I'd swap for Bont. In fact I'd be unlikely to take any three of them for the Bont.

Are we allowed to swap Bont for three Bonts ???