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2018 Prospects / Never again list

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MaCrae likely to lose his FWD status. I was surprised he had it at the start of the year. Bont. Dusty and Robbie Gray surely to get it again. Rocky maybe. WCE supporters where was Yeo mainly playing this year ? too good of numbers to be in the fwd line. Dan Rich Back/Mid, Taylor Adams will lose it.

Locks for me

Docherty, Laird

Danger, Zorko, Mitchell

Ryder, Nic Nat

Dusty

Will never go near Heater and Dahlhaus again. Pendles unlikely as well
 

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Also, no chance Rocky and Danger get DPP.
Fantasy Freako said on twitter that they both had spent less than 25% time in the forward half.
Also ruled out Gaz. Will be mid only again.
 
CrozaN said:
Dusty and Bont SHOULD get it.
Click to expand...

Probably. But I really doubt they'd be that kind.
Didn't watch a heap of the dogs, know Bont went forward a lot more later in the year but that wasn't the case early was it?
 
Seymour Skinner said:
Probably. But I really doubt they'd be that kind.
Didn't watch a heap of the dogs, know Bont went forward a lot more later in the year but that wasn't the case early was it?
Click to expand...

He has spent at a HUGE amount forward this year, yes more prominent towards 2nd half, but even early he was there a fair bit.

If the general rule is above 35% then he smashes that so should get it.
 
Here's a list of the players averaging over 100 this year (plus a few selected others) with their historical averages and games played (some of the averages could be a tiny bit out (a discrepancy between footywire and SC):

upload_2017-8-30_20-17-14.png
upload_2017-8-30_20-18-17.png

And the top part of the same list sorted by 2016 average. Just to show how much the best players vary year to year - of the top 12 averaging players in 2016, probably only Danger was worth starting with in 2017 although Neale and Merrett were marginally ok.
upload_2017-8-30_20-20-45.png
 

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Sydney Kicker said:
Here's a list of the players averaging over 100 this year (plus a few selected others) with their historical averages and games played (some of the averages could be a tiny bit out (a discrepancy between footywire and SC):

View attachment 409989
View attachment 409990

And the top part of the same list sorted by 2016 average. Just to show how much the best players vary year to year - of the top 12 averaging players in 2016, probably only Danger was worth starting with in 2017 although Neale and Merrett were marginally ok.
View attachment 409991
Click to expand...
This is awesome, thanks Kicker. Trying to pinpoint potential bargains next year, Hannebury only one loooking tasty right now
 
Pill Cosby said:
This is awesome, thanks Kicker. Trying to pinpoint potential bargains next year, Hannebury only one loooking tasty right now
Click to expand...

I had him all year and he absolutely singed me, but I would certainly consider picking Hanners again in '18.

To me he looks like he has been playing hurt for a fair chunk of the year and has spent a fair bit of time up forward. Ditto Bont.
 
I'm definitely going to pick Witherden as a unique next year.

He so has the potential second year of Oliver about him. :thumbsu:

Basically going to pick all the next gen that I never got to pick this year.

Oliver, Kelly, Zerrett, M.Crouch, Witherden, etc. LOL!
 
Sydney Kicker said:
Here's a list of the players averaging over 100 this year (plus a few selected others) with their historical averages and games played (some of the averages could be a tiny bit out (a discrepancy between footywire and SC):

View attachment 409989
View attachment 409990

And the top part of the same list sorted by 2016 average. Just to show how much the best players vary year to year - of the top 12 averaging players in 2016, probably only Danger was worth starting with in 2017 although Neale and Merrett were marginally ok.
View attachment 409991
Click to expand...

Ridiculous rocky averaged 132. Such a shame of the injuries since.
 

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On my consider list:

Tom Papley
Tom Nicholls - if he changes clubs but it will be hard to go past Gawn and NicNat at 1 million between them
Jelwood & Coniglio - should both be a very nice starting price
Kade Simpson (If defensive stocks are thin again) - got him at Round 7 for low 500's and he averaged 95.
Brandon Ellis (again if defensive stocks are thin)
Dahlhaus - everyones jumping off, I'm staying on
Roughead - will better for the run this year and will improve
Tom Lynch , yes my favorite burn man - Reckon he did what Yeo did last year and threw everyone off his bandwagon but he will bounce back.
Deledio
 
Pill Cosby said:
This is awesome, thanks Kicker. Trying to pinpoint potential bargains next year, Hannebury only one loooking tasty right now
Click to expand...

Doing the list I came to the same conclusion. Hannebury (especially) and Kennedy priced way below expected output.

Other things that came to mind for 2018 when compiling those numbers:
- Danger looks ripe to drop in average next year but he's so far ahead of the rest you probably need to start with him anyway as captain.
- Don't like Dusty as a starting pick. This year screams outlier.
- Tom Mitchell? Will fall a bit in average I'd guess, but like Danger probably a good bet as a top 8 mid so could be worth the coin. Younger than Dusty so IMHO more likely than Dusty to back up with another big year.
- If you can predict what Rocky will average next year take up a job in fortune telling or bookmaking. So many factors (injury, position, output of Zorko and Beams, Brissie youngsters coming through) make him a lottery. In fact all 3 Brisbane midfield guns are tricky to evaluate.
- Do Pendles and Selwood get back to Superpremo status? Selwood I'm going to punt and say no - 2 bad years out of 3 and others are stepping up to take some of his former load. With Pendles I think I'd roll the dice and pick him and be satisfied with a 112-115 average (can't see him back at 120+). Would have been more confident if Bucks had got boned though.
- Will be all over Gray and Bont if they are named F/M.
- Fyfe a risk but more risk if you don't pick him. I think if you don't pick him, you hope he gets injured because if he's healthy he's priced very kindly.
- What to make of Crouch, Kelly and Oliver? I would guess one will continue to progress, one will stay still and one will go backwards (in average). No idea which is which though. Oliver broke all precedents this year with a 110+ average for a 2nd year player. Kelly may have benefited from GWS long injury list? Given they all have a premium price I might take Cripps instead and hope to get the same output for a large discount. History says if you want to win you need to start with a couple of underpriced keepers.
- I'd avoid guys like Sloane, Treloar, Sidebottom, Gibbs. I think their ceiling in a good year (bar the odd exceptional year) is around 110ppg. Better to take a shot at Bont getting to the next level (even if only M eligible) or Crouch, Kelly, Zerrett etc.
- Gawn's massive 2016 the exception or the rule? Probably doesn't matter since at his low price any average north of 100ppg is a win.
 
Sydney Kicker said:
Doing the list I came to the same conclusion. Hannebury (especially) and Kennedy priced way below expected output.

Other things that came to mind for 2018 when compiling those numbers:
- Danger looks ripe to drop in average next year but he's so far ahead of the rest you probably need to start with him anyway as captain.
- Don't like Dusty as a starting pick. This year screams outlier.
- Tom Mitchell? Will fall a bit in average I'd guess, but like Danger probably a good bet as a top 8 mid so could be worth the coin. Younger than Dusty so IMHO more likely than Dusty to back up with another big year.
- If you can predict what Rocky will average next year take up a job in fortune telling or bookmaking. So many factors (injury, position, output of Zorko and Beams, Brissie youngsters coming through) make him a lottery. In fact all 3 Brisbane midfield guns are tricky to evaluate.
- Do Pendles and Selwood get back to Superpremo status? Selwood I'm going to punt and say no - 2 bad years out of 3 and others are stepping up to take some of his former load. With Pendles I think I'd roll the dice and pick him and be satisfied with a 112-115 average (can't see him back at 120+). Would have been more confident if Bucks had got boned though.
- Will be all over Gray and Bont if they are named F/M.
- Fyfe a risk but more risk if you don't pick him. I think if you don't pick him, you hope he gets injured because if he's healthy he's priced very kindly.
- What to make of Crouch, Kelly and Oliver? I would guess one will continue to progress, one will stay still and one will go backwards (in average). No idea which is which though. Oliver broke all precedents this year with a 110+ average for a 2nd year player. Kelly may have benefited from GWS long injury list? Given they all have a premium price I might take Cripps instead and hope to get the same output for a large discount. History says if you want to win you need to start with a couple of underpriced keepers.
- I'd avoid guys like Sloane, Treloar, Sidebottom, Gibbs. I think their ceiling in a good year (bar the odd exceptional year) is around 110ppg. Better to take a shot at Bont getting to the next level (even if only M eligible) or Crouch, Kelly, Zerrett etc.
- Gawn's massive 2016 the exception or the rule? Probably doesn't matter since at his low price any average north of 100ppg is a win.
Click to expand...
Great summary mate, agree with most all points :)
 
Will be taking a good look at Coniglio. Going to get a lot of midfield time with or without Kelly there. Talent is wasted in run-with roles. Could be a good M5.

Danger, Dusty, Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio.
 
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