AFL 2019 - AFL Round 21

[Robo87]

Pies and Dees game - reasonable chance that Roughead (replacing Cox, Pies have bought in Madgen who plays back exclusively, Roughead trained with the forwards today) or May (replacing Preuss) start at full forward. $26 for 2 goals, $151 for 3 at bet365 for both of them.

into $7 and 34 already

 

[GROTTO]

into $7 and 34 already

Must have been a feeding frenzy.

Punters going all in there at the early odds.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Tailing Roughy (got in there early at $151, but not super confident that that guy can kick 3+ during a thunderstorm).

Like Allen Christensen at $18 for 4+ (SB). Kicked 2, 2, and 3 in the last 3 weeks. 5+ @ $67 if you're brave.
GC concede a bags to small fwds every week.

WB -58.5 @ $20 also

 

[Snake_Baker]

TAB

North +22.5 @ $1.90
GWS 90+ only @ $2.60
Carlton + 34.5/under 153.5 @ $3.20
West Coast/over 168.5 @ $2.25

 

[kaiserchief13]

Sportsbet the dogs don't even have a market for Roughead goals

 

[HTPunter]

Bet365 to me have some inflated odds still available

Dan Menzel anytime goal scorer - $1.95! All he does!
Jayden Hunt AGS - $1.95. Fallen off the wagon a bit in recent times but good odds for a busy small forward
Shaun McKernan and Tory Dickson $1.77 each

 

[freo_leo29]

Wow since when did Bet365 offer half decent odds on AGS?

They used to offer forwards and mids for 1.02 to 1.34ish and then defenders for 1.70ish to 2.15ish

 

[freo_leo29]

I'll bite at Roughhead AGS @2.50 Bet365

 

[NonPhixion]

some fireworks for this week:
McStay 2+ @3.40, 3+ @9.50 SB -Not a huge wrap for this bloke as a footballer, but ill take those odds for any FF playing GC.
Rayner 2+ @2.75, 3+ @7 SB - again, playing GC, thinking atleast 1 of these guys kicks atleast 2 if not both. Rayner has been parked forward all year, shouldnt change.
Wood 2+ @4.50, 3+ @18 SB - Been in goalkicking form recently. kicked 2 in the last 3 games, bit of value
Menzel 2+ @4.20, 3+ @13 SB & also tailing that AGS on b365
Bruest AGS @1.80, 2+ @3.10, 3+ @9 B365 - Crazy odds for a player of his caliber. Only 1 goal in the last 3 games, surely due to kick a couple and i rekon he will handle the wet conditions better than most.
Bailey Smith 2+ @6, 3+ @23 B365 - More speculative than the others, but seems like he is playing a bit more forward in recent times. If Dogs are to win big I can see him snagging a couple.
Beat me to it on Roughead, seeing that he trained forward on the training reports i instantly knew he was going to be big odds on b365, good shout Pharma. Only concern with that bet i have is the wet conditions, good value tho.

OK. WTF b365
Tom Papley AGS @1.60. Hammer it. Covered 17/19 for the year. including the last 15 games.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Guessing the good odds for breust,papley,menzel due to the lower projected game total but yeh the wet should suit all 3 maybe less so Menzel

 

[demon_fanatic]

Tailing Roughy (got in there early at $151, but not super confident that that guy can kick 3+ during a thunderstorm).

Like Allen Christensen at $18 for 4+ (SB). Kicked 2, 2, and 3 in the last 3 weeks. 5+ @ $67 if you're brave.
GC concede a bags to small fwds every week.

WB -58.5 @ $20 also

Can you cash out b365 roughy for a huge profit? Guessing you'd be put on limits though loving the points spread on Christensen (9) and Cameron (13), game total is 176.5 and Lions projected for around 115 points, think one definitely goes at least like 3 goals couple behinds (20) and other at least 1 goal and a behind (7) that's 27 total points from a 22 spread and I feel like I'm being conservative on their output, obviously an injury could send it under but yeh the suns struggle on small fwds. I'll probably go $10 per point nothing crazy

 

[Robo87]

also
1u Bruest ags @1.80 on b365 too. (covered in 15/19)
2u Zurhaar ags @1.75 b365 (12/16)
0.5u Zurhaar 2g+ @3 b365
0.2u Zurhaar 3g+ @8.50 b365
0.2u Rayner 4g+ @21 sb
0.2u McStay 4g+ @31 sb

1u on tailing each of: menzel, hunt, and mckernan atgs
like 2g+ and 3g+ for Wood, mcstay & rayner mentioned above too.

Also any advice for best roughy for work footy tips, I'm trying to overtake leader thinking WB are a better chance to win than Freo?

 

[targett]

 

[JuniorWatch]

Can you cash out b365 roughy for a huge profit?

Until a few weeks ago they used to offer cash outs as a direct proportion of the potential winnings. Which is insane.
They canned that obviously. But i definitely would.

 

[shatteredboy]

Got a weird feeling Melbourne could win tomorrow they usually play really well once every few weeks been smashed In the media for not tackling/no pressure may be there last good game of the season tomorrow


any thoughts on Saints vs freo? want to back Freo but feel saints will run em off their legs like the dogs did a few weeks ago under the roof

 

[Snake_Baker]

Did any of the weather watchers catch on to some of the great value earlier in the week?

 

[redstarforever_]

There is reports they might not risk Cameron and Kelly in the cold temps with there soft tissue injuries

Only thing scaring me from loading up cos I agree it’s way too low

unlikely they’ll leave cameron out considering the importance of the a win if they want that top 4

 

[Snake_Baker]

unlikely they’ll leave cameron out considering the importance of the a win if they want that top 4

Fine conditions are forecast:

 

[redstarforever_]

Got a weird feeling Melbourne could win tomorrow they usually play really well once every few weeks been smashed In the media for not tackling/no pressure may be there last good game of the season tomorrow


any thoughts on Saints vs freo? want to back Freo but feel saints will run em off their legs like the dogs did a few weeks ago under the roof

melb might be there til about half time but pies should probably run away in the 2nd

saints/freo is a tough one could go either way. maybe saints cos freos record at marvel is kind of poor

 

[chunkylover]

Fine conditions are forecast:

View attachment 723124

It's in canberra

 

[redstarforever_]

yeah it’s in canberra they’re even forecasting possibility of snow

 

[Snake_Baker]

It's in canberra

D'OH!

 

[GROTTO]

yeah it’s in canberra they’re even forecasting possibility of snow

Has it ever snowed in an AFL game?

 

[Snake_Baker]

LOL, I got on GWS 90+ only.

What a dick head.

 

[targett]

J.Roughead
Career Goals 34.42
@ 44.7% accuracy
League Average 2019
All Shots - 45.8%
Set Shots - 51.1%